Good to go for 18-19 or need more pieces?

[CaliRdBrd]

My projection is that next years starting lineup will be: (It will also be the best starting lineup in the MVC)

Keyshawn Evans-Needs to get healthy & stay healthy.
Zach Copeland-Hope he is everything this board says he is.
Milik Yarbrough-PLAY SMARTER
William Tinsley-opposing team will no longer be leaving him open to double down on Milik or Phil. Work on driving to the basket.
Phil Fayne-Hit the weight room. Learn to use your quickness to get the better of Krutwig. Pippen concerns me more than Krutwig.

Bench:

Matt Chastain-Be the 3* player that you were projected to be. Win the MVC 6th Man Award
Elijah Clarance-Stay healthy. I think that if EC returns, he will be a good back-up to Keyshawn.
Rey Idowu-Last I checked Cameron Krutwig & Lucas Williamson were valuable Freshman on the MVC Championship team.
Madison Williams-Needs to work on his shooting. Would be a valuable experienced defensive sub.
David N'Diaye-Needs to improve everything & get stronger
Taylor Bruninga-Get stronger & keep doing what you do. Could benefit from a Redshirt in 2018-19
Demontay Dixon-Like Taylor, Would benefit from a Redshirt year.
Matt Hein-Not to run him off, but would love to see him playing on a team that he could be a starter on his final 2 years.
Isaac Gassman-Love his game. Just get stronger and keep working hard.
Christine Romine-???

Not sure which of these 15 players will be one of 13 on scholarship next season, or will even be here next season. My guess is that the ones who would be candidates for leaving would be:
EC
MW
DN
MH
IG
CR

As for adding more pieces? That depends on how many openings will be available for the 13 scholarships.
I do not see a JC player coming to Illinois State to be a backup PG or backup Center. And I don't see one coming here that is going to send Keyshawn or Phil to the bench to be a backup.
So that being said, I do not see the starting lineup changing. And I don't see the top reserves changing.
I would think that any incoming players to fill openings vacated by players transferring will probably be filled by incoming Freshman recruits or players transferring from another school that will be sitting out their redshirt next season, such as someone like a Mark Smith.

As for Illinois State making the NCAA Tournament in 2018-19, They can get an At-Large bid if they:

Make it to the Cayman Island Classic Championship game,
Go undefeated at home,
Do not lose more than TWO road Valley games (@ Loyola & @ Southern Illinois), which means going 16-2 in the Valley
Do not lose a game to a team with an RPI worse than 150

This is definitely possible. And if Southern and Loyola are better than us, and we do the above things, than the Valley may have 3 teams in the NCAA Tournament 2018-19.

If Illinois State does not win the MVC Tournament or get an At-Large bid in 2018-19, I will predict that Valparaiso will be in the NCAA Tournament before the Redbirds dance again. And that would really suck. Especially since Loyola, the team that replaced Creighton (that many, if not all on this board felt was a bad choice) will be in the NCAA Tournament this year.

Wry good, well laid out, post.

I would like to add, that if we are not dancing next year that serious change should be on the horizon.
There, I said it...

Discuss amongst yourselves.

 

[JHBird]

I'm giving the Chief the benefit of the doubt. Why are people saying Dan needs a center, with Rey already signed. Almost as if some on here assume our incoming bigs will just naturally suck. I view Dan having already filled that void until proven otherwise.

I think bringing in a big man with experience would be nice. It would open up the lane for Phil to work a little bit. Plus having big man depth would absolutely destroy Loyola inside. Did you see their post presence when Krutwig was on the bench? Neither did I.

Plus, I think people are thinking the David experiment is getting old. I know injuries have plagued his development but he can't really catch the ball. You would think that even with a stress fracture in his foot, he could practice catching passes. He's a decent rim protector in a zone but we are playing 4 on 5 one the offensive side.

I'm right there with you, hoping Rey is the real deal. But it wouldn't hurt having two bulky 5's on the roster, and one with experience. Rey will probably not get stronger in the post going against our current 210 pounders.

Assuming no injuries, I'm thinking Rey will be getting more minutes than David by the end of next year. DN only shows a flash here and there, and it's getting late for him. We need the bulk inside. I don't think Rey needs to score much, just clean up a few missed shots here and there.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

No!

1. Need a solid big man. I think the two freshman coming in have upside...but will hard pressed to make a major contribution in year one.

2. Need a PG.

3. Too many low grade players on the roster.

Ditto on the needs but not certain I would say that ISU winning next year is an emphatic" no". The problem is that the rest of the MVC is not static. Some MVC teams will improve and some will fall back. If Loyola and/or SIU is able to keep their talent plus add a key piece(s) they will improve and likely be better than a static ISU team.

I just do not know how DM can stay all in with current roster when also considering fall 2019 season and beyond. Yes it is one year at a time but think about what remains without Fayne, Milik and Evans. Some good pieces perhaps (?) but looks to be lacking a whole lot of firepower.

 

[SgtHulka]

No!

1. Need a solid big man. I think the two freshman coming in have upside...but will hard pressed to make a major contribution in year one.

2. Need a PG.

3. Too many low grade players on the roster.

Ditto on the needs but not certain I would say that ISU winning next year is an emphatic" no". The problem is that the rest of the MVC is not static. Some MVC teams will improve and some will fall back. If Loyola and/or SIU is able to keep their talent plus add a key piece(s) they will improve and likely be better than a static ISU team.

I just do not know how DM can stay all in with current roster when also considering fall 2019 season and beyond. Yes it is one year at a time but think about what remains without Fayne, Milik and Evans. Some good pieces perhaps (?) but looks to be lacking a whole lot of firepower.

We aren't going to be static. We'll have a minimum of 4 new faces on the roster. Plus no team is ever truly static. Skills and abilities ebb and flow through careers

 

[Baltimore Bird]

I really like our chances if the top 4 stay plus EC, Taylor, Copeland, Chastain and the 2 recruits and I am OK with Gassman. As I have said in another post....Hein, David, Madison, Romine can leave and I will shed no tears.

That being said....I agree with others. A Solid Point Guard and a Big will be helpful. If we have to play Hein as much next year as we did this year, we a major problem. There were times when David, Hein and Madison were on the floor at the same time. No wonder we only scored 49 points in the championship game. Those 3 combined scored 2 points in 46 minutes. THAT WILL NOT WORK any year.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

No!

1. Need a solid big man. I think the two freshman coming in have upside...but will hard pressed to make a major contribution in year one.

2. Need a PG.

3. Too many low grade players on the roster.

Ditto on the needs but not certain I would say that ISU winning next year is an emphatic" no". The problem is that the rest of the MVC is not static. Some MVC teams will improve and some will fall back. If Loyola and/or SIU is able to keep their talent plus add a key piece(s) they will improve and likely be better than a static ISU team.

I just do not know how DM can stay all in with current roster when also considering fall 2019 season and beyond. Yes it is one year at a time but think about what remains without Fayne, Milik and Evans. Some good pieces perhaps (?) but looks to be lacking a whole lot of firepower.

We aren't going to be static. We'll have a minimum of 4 new faces on the roster. Plus no team is ever truly static. Skills and abilities ebb and flow through careers

My reference for static was relative to making roster changes beyond what is already known for ISU...which for me included the 4 faces.

 

[RedbirdNation24]

I think as many have said we are a true BIG man and a legit PG away from being a lock to win the league next year. With the roster as it currently stands, with Chastain and Copeland coming in, we should still win the league. If we were able to get a big man that can at least guard a guy like Krutwig, we'll be in great shape. Maybe Rey will be that, but I'm still not sure. I'm holding out hope that Clarence can become a true PG that can create plays and allow Key to play off the ball more.

Idk what to do with MY. He makes some incredibly stupid plays. But, he's obviously our best overall player otherwise. Just not sure if his attitude problems along with his mental mistakes are enough to take away some of his PT.

 

[DannyCooksey]

No!

1. Need a solid big man. I think the two freshman coming in have upside...but will hard pressed to make a major contribution in year one.

2. Need a PG.

3. Too many low grade players on the roster.

Ditto on the needs but not certain I would say that ISU winning next year is an emphatic" no". The problem is that the rest of the MVC is not static. Some MVC teams will improve and some will fall back. If Loyola and/or SIU is able to keep their talent plus add a key piece(s) they will improve and likely be better than a static ISU team.

I just do not know how DM can stay all in with current roster when also considering fall 2019 season and beyond. Yes it is one year at a time but think about what remains without Fayne, Milik and Evans. Some good pieces perhaps (?) but looks to be lacking a whole lot of firepower.

We aren't going to be static. We'll have a minimum of 4 new faces on the roster. Plus no team is ever truly static. Skills and abilities ebb and flow through careers

Quit it Sarge. You are sounding like a Talking Heads album!!!!!

 

[Reggie]

If there are no departures or major injuries next year, then I think this team wins the valley and a NCAA bid. I would like to see a PG added, but that is more about the next year, after Evans has left.

 

[redbird Recon]

We're actively recruiting juco point guards, so I think I know how Dan feels.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

We're actively recruiting juco point guards, so I think I know how Dan feels.

Or what he knows?

 

[HT59]

No!
Have you given up hope that EC will come aroung?
1. Need a solid big man. I think the two freshman coming in have upside...but will hard pressed to make a major contribution in year one.

2. Need a PG.

3. Too many low grade players on the roster.

Ditto on the needs but not certain I would say that ISU winning next year is an emphatic" no". The problem is that the rest of the MVC is not static. Some MVC teams will improve and some will fall back. If Loyola and/or SIU is able to keep their talent plus add a key piece(s) they will improve and likely be better than a static ISU team.

I just do not know how DM can stay all in with current roster when also considering fall 2019 season and beyond. Yes it is one year at a time but think about what remains without Fayne, Milik and Evans. Some good pieces perhaps (?) but looks to be lacking a whole lot of firepower.

 

[HT59]

I really like our chances if the top 4 stay plus EC, Taylor, Copeland, Chastain and the 2 recruits and I am OK with Gassman. As I have said in another post....Hein, David, Madison, Romine can leave and I will shed no tears.

That being said....I agree with others. A Solid Point Guard and a Big will be helpful. If we have to play Hein as much next year as we did this year, we a major problem. There were times when David, Hein and Madison were on the floor at the same time. No wonder we only scored 49 points in the championship game. Those 3 combined scored 2 points in 46 minutes. THAT WILL NOT WORK any year.

:text-+1:

 

[HT59]

My projection is that next years starting lineup will be: (It will also be the best starting lineup in the MVC)

Keyshawn Evans-Needs to get healthy & stay healthy.
Zach Copeland-Hope he is everything this board says he is.
Milik Yarbrough-PLAY SMARTER
William Tinsley-opposing team will no longer be leaving him open to double down on Milik or Phil. Work on driving to the basket.
Phil Fayne-Hit the weight room. Learn to use your quickness to get the better of Krutwig. Pippen concerns me more than Krutwig.

Bench:

Matt Chastain-Be the 3* player that you were projected to be. Win the MVC 6th Man Award
Elijah Clarance-Stay healthy. I think that if EC returns, he will be a good back-up to Keyshawn.
Rey Idowu-Last I checked Cameron Krutwig & Lucas Williamson were valuable Freshman on the MVC Championship team.
Madison Williams-Needs to work on his shooting. Would be a valuable experienced defensive sub.
David N'Diaye-Needs to improve everything & get stronger
Taylor Bruninga-Get stronger & keep doing what you do. Could benefit from a Redshirt in 2018-19
Demontay Dixon-Like Taylor, Would benefit from a Redshirt year.
Matt Hein-Not to run him off, but would love to see him playing on a team that he could be a starter on his final 2 years.
Isaac Gassman-Love his game. Just get stronger and keep working hard.
Christine Romine-???

Not sure which of these 15 players will be one of 13 on scholarship next season, or will even be here next season. My guess is that the ones who would be candidates for leaving would be:
EC
MW
DN
MH
IG
CR

As for adding more pieces? That depends on how many openings will be available for the 13 scholarships.
I do not see a JC player coming to Illinois State to be a backup PG or backup Center. And I don't see one coming here that is going to send Keyshawn or Phil to the bench to be a backup.
So that being said, I do not see the starting lineup changing. And I don't see the top reserves changing.
I would think that any incoming players to fill openings vacated by players transferring will probably be filled by incoming Freshman recruits or players transferring from another school that will be sitting out their redshirt next season, such as someone like a Mark Smith.

As for Illinois State making the NCAA Tournament in 2018-19, They can get an At-Large bid if they:

Make it to the Cayman Island Classic Championship game,
Go undefeated at home,
Do not lose more than TWO road Valley games (@ Loyola & @ Southern Illinois), which means going 16-2 in the Valley
Do not lose a game to a team with an RPI worse than 150

This is definitely possible. And if Southern and Loyola are better than us, and we do the above things, than the Valley may have 3 teams in the NCAA Tournament 2018-19.

If Illinois State does not win the MVC Tournament or get an At-Large bid in 2018-19, I will predict that Valparaiso will be in the NCAA Tournament before the Redbirds dance again. And that would really suck. Especially since Loyola, the team that replaced Creighton (that many, if not all on this board felt was a bad choice) will be in the NCAA Tournament this year.

Wry good, well laid out, post.

I would like to add, that if we are not dancing next year that serious change should be on the horizon.
There, I said it...

Discuss amongst yourselves.

:think:

 

[Michigan Red]

Juco PG and Juco/Transfer true 5 all day long, glaring needs. Roster consistency would be great, all four year players, but at our level and the climate of the current game, put your best team on the floor every year. There’s not a lot of loyalty in this game, be it players or coaches, in some cases. Build a roster as best you can and look to the future, but every year to succeed, 1-8/9 have to be solid. If that means current players PT is reduced or some current players don’t return, so be it. Just my opinion.

 

[RicoBryson]

I think its a reasonable expectation that we can win the championship next year with this team and those coming in next year. The only issue I see is David. I love his tenacity and heart but I would love to see more dominance from him in the post. We need someone to compete with Krutwig.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

I think its a reasonable expectation that we can win the championship next year with this team and those coming in next year. The only issue I see is David. I love his tenacity and heart but I would love to see more dominance from him in the post. We need someone to compete with Krutwig.

I think that Phil Fayne & Rey Idowu will do just fine against Krutwig. I'm not sure how Krutwig will do against Phil Fayne :dance: Big David had his opportunities.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

SanAntonioBird: If every piece comes back and healthy, with Copeland and Chastain waiting in the wings, we win no less than 15 conference games and an NCAA berth—book it.

You can’t beat the resiliency this team showed this year and the confidence they gained in each other’s game. I love these overachievers. As good as we were in 2016-17, we don’t win the Ole Miss game with our top 3 out. We had issues closing out close games (ala TCU/Tulsa/UCF). We were 5-1 in OTs this year! You can’t simulate that in practice.
Next year will be special with the current group and incoming additions.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

No!
Have you given up hope that EC will come aroung?
1. Need a solid big man. I think the two freshman coming in have upside...but will hard pressed to make a major contribution in year one.

2. Need a PG.

3. Too many low grade players on the roster.

Ditto on the needs but not certain I would say that ISU winning next year is an emphatic" no". The problem is that the rest of the MVC is not static. Some MVC teams will improve and some will fall back. If Loyola and/or SIU is able to keep their talent plus add a key piece(s) they will improve and likely be better than a static ISU team.

I just do not know how DM can stay all in with current roster when also considering fall 2019 season and beyond. Yes it is one year at a time but think about what remains without Fayne, Milik and Evans. Some good pieces perhaps (?) but looks to be lacking a whole lot of firepower.

I disagree, you just can’t know this. I guarantee no one on this board predicted EVANS would average 16 points a night.
Put in the position to shoulder the burden, many current players could prob do the same...it wasn’t their role.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Ditto on the needs but not certain I would say that ISU winning next year is an emphatic" no". The problem is that the rest of the MVC is not static. Some MVC teams will improve and some will fall back. If Loyola and/or SIU is able to keep their talent plus add a key piece(s) they will improve and likely be better than a static ISU team.

I just do not know how DM can stay all in with current roster when also considering fall 2019 season and beyond. Yes it is one year at a time but think about what remains without Fayne, Milik and Evans. Some good pieces perhaps (?) but looks to be lacking a whole lot of firepower.

I disagree, you just can’t know this. I guarantee no one on this board predicted EVANS would average 16 points a night.
Put in the position to shoulder the burden, many current players could prob do the same...it wasn’t their role.

No doubt no one knows for sure but guessing who is most likely going to develop and who is likely to be a role player so that needs can be determined for recruiting is one of the biggest challenges and requirements of coaching. Question...we had many games where we did need other players to shoulder the burden and we had mixed results at best so if many current players could have shouldered the burden then where were they? My answer...because for his team they were either too green and needed to develop or are limited role players. Let’s hope the too green players make the big step and do develop.