Realistic Expectations

[StLRedbird]

Also, did they do away with the GPI? I thought that was more the benchmark that the NCAA selection committee uses (LOOSELY in 2011) for selecting at large bids.

I know that it's not published for the first several weeks of the season. Have been watching, but haven't seen anything yet. My recollection is that FCSInsider publishes it.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

I've mentioned this a few times but figured I would again. 6-5 does not get us in. Last year was the first time they let in a 6-5 team and it didn't turn out well. What are the odds they let that same 6-5 team in again? 6-5=out. 7-4 =in. 8-3= on the bubble for a top 8 seed. 9-2= top 5 seed.

One game at a time.

you have bad info.

WIU got in at 6-5 in 2015, won 1st round game before losing to us in round of 16. And last year, we got in at 6-5, and lost by 7 to the #12 on the road .. arguably would have won if not for 2 special teams miscues in Q4 that gave them 10 points and momentum swing.

This year, the MVFC is stronger/deeper than 2014 when we got 5 and dominated. According to Massey Composite of 35 polls, we have the following ranked teams: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 15, 17, 24.

If Massey Composite were THE source for playoff bids, we would have 7 teams in and 1 on bubble today. And the one bubble is only because there are usually 3-5 autobids (PFL, MEAC, NEC, Big South, Patriot) who get in even though they do not deserve a top 24 bid.

I think it is near mathematical certainty that a 4-4 MVFC team who lost 1 non-conf (usu. FBS) to go 6-5 overall will get in this year .. or at least should get in. They will have at least 4 of 5 losses to FBS and highly ranked FCS teams; and at least 2 wins against ranked MVFC teams, not to mention 2 more FCS OOC wins.

We need to stop settling for Patty V type attitude of rationalizing why we shouldn't be in playoffs or why MVFC got screwed yet again. Any 24 team playoff should be designed to get THE BEST 24 teams, and then seed them fairly .. period. I don't care if I'm the 24th best team ... I want in .. everyone should want in. Every playoff system except FBS Bowl system takes same approach.

8-3 in a bad conference for a team that has played no one resembling a top 25 team ... versus .. a 6-5 MVFC team who lost to FBS and played 7 top 25 teams ... no brainer decision if someone is being objective.

If I can't be THE best team, I'll take being considered one of the best .. it beats the hell out of staying home. To me, anything is false pride.

6-5 is weak. I don't care how good the conference is. You're using the same argument we rail against P5 teams over on the basketball board...an argument that justifies the inclusion of a barely above .500 team just because of who they play.

 

[Chi-bird]

I've mentioned this a few times but figured I would again. 6-5 does not get us in. Last year was the first time they let in a 6-5 team and it didn't turn out well. What are the odds they let that same 6-5 team in again? 6-5=out. 7-4 =in. 8-3= on the bubble for a top 8 seed. 9-2= top 5 seed.

One game at a time.

you have bad info.

WIU got in at 6-5 in 2015, won 1st round game before losing to us in round of 16. And last year, we got in at 6-5, and lost by 7 to the #12 on the road .. arguably would have won if not for 2 special teams miscues in Q4 that gave them 10 points and momentum swing.

This year, the MVFC is stronger/deeper than 2014 when we got 5 and dominated. According to Massey Composite of 35 polls, we have the following ranked teams: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 15, 17, 24.

If Massey Composite were THE source for playoff bids, we would have 7 teams in and 1 on bubble today. And the one bubble is only because there are usually 3-5 autobids (PFL, MEAC, NEC, Big South, Patriot) who get in even though they do not deserve a top 24 bid.

I think it is near mathematical certainty that a 4-4 MVFC team who lost 1 non-conf (usu. FBS) to go 6-5 overall will get in this year .. or at least should get in. They will have at least 4 of 5 losses to FBS and highly ranked FCS teams; and at least 2 wins against ranked MVFC teams, not to mention 2 more FCS OOC wins.

We need to stop settling for Patty V type attitude of rationalizing why we shouldn't be in playoffs or why MVFC got screwed yet again. Any 24 team playoff should be designed to get THE BEST 24 teams, and then seed them fairly .. period. I don't care if I'm the 24th best team ... I want in .. everyone should want in. Every playoff system except FBS Bowl system takes same approach.

8-3 in a bad conference for a team that has played no one resembling a top 25 team ... versus .. a 6-5 MVFC team who lost to FBS and played 7 top 25 teams ... no brainer decision if someone is being objective.

If I can't be THE best team, I'll take being considered one of the best .. it beats the hell out of staying home. To me, anything is false pride.

6-5 is weak. I don't care how good the conference is. You're using the same argument we rail against P5 teams over on the basketball board...an argument that justifies the inclusion of a barely above .500 team just because of who they play.

Especially when one of those 6 wins is against Butler.

 

[saxman210]

https://herosports.com/fcs/football-projecting-fcs-playoff-field-week-8-byby

According to this projection, 6 valley teams in, with UNI being in the first 4 out.

 

[fourthandshort]

you have bad info.

WIU got in at 6-5 in 2015, won 1st round game before losing to us in round of 16. And last year, we got in at 6-5, and lost by 7 to the #12 on the road .. arguably would have won if not for 2 special teams miscues in Q4 that gave them 10 points and momentum swing.

This year, the MVFC is stronger/deeper than 2014 when we got 5 and dominated. According to Massey Composite of 35 polls, we have the following ranked teams: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 15, 17, 24.

If Massey Composite were THE source for playoff bids, we would have 7 teams in and 1 on bubble today. And the one bubble is only because there are usually 3-5 autobids (PFL, MEAC, NEC, Big South, Patriot) who get in even though they do not deserve a top 24 bid.

I think it is near mathematical certainty that a 4-4 MVFC team who lost 1 non-conf (usu. FBS) to go 6-5 overall will get in this year .. or at least should get in. They will have at least 4 of 5 losses to FBS and highly ranked FCS teams; and at least 2 wins against ranked MVFC teams, not to mention 2 more FCS OOC wins.

We need to stop settling for Patty V type attitude of rationalizing why we shouldn't be in playoffs or why MVFC got screwed yet again. Any 24 team playoff should be designed to get THE BEST 24 teams, and then seed them fairly .. period. I don't care if I'm the 24th best team ... I want in .. everyone should want in. Every playoff system except FBS Bowl system takes same approach.

8-3 in a bad conference for a team that has played no one resembling a top 25 team ... versus .. a 6-5 MVFC team who lost to FBS and played 7 top 25 teams ... no brainer decision if someone is being objective.

If I can't be THE best team, I'll take being considered one of the best .. it beats the hell out of staying home. To me, anything is false pride.

6-5 is weak. I don't care how good the conference is. You're using the same argument we rail against P5 teams over on the basketball board...an argument that justifies the inclusion of a barely above .500 team just because of who they play.

Especially when one of those 6 wins is against Butler.

every team beats up a patsy .. so Butler blowout is wash, not a negative.

I don't make that argument against P5 basketball teams .. so not my hypocrisy.

I am only saying 6-5 puts us on bubble .. we would be 4-4 in MVFC, arguably top 6 in conference deserving 6 teams. And if we're tied with someone, our fate will depend on how well we competed in our remaining losses to all the top 10 teams, and then if SIU and NAU finish reasonable strong making those losses look less bad.

Main point being .. 6 teams from MVFC deserve playoff bid .. and many outsiders are already projecting this. if we are 5th or 6th best team in MVFC, then we should be in and I will take it.

 

[saxman210]

After an absolutely dismantling of YSU, we are in the enviable position of needing to win one of our last 3 to get into the playoffs. We have WIU at home, the Jacks on the road and the Bizon at home. No game is a gimme, but I’m thinking the Birds will come out strong next week against WIU and try to seal our playoff hopes early.

What a turnaround from when we lost to lowly SIU. I still think NAU is a better team than we are giving them credit for but that SIU lost was a tough pill to swallow. Glad to see the train back on the tracks, the OL gelling and that Redbird defense making life terrible on QBs.

 

[Redbird28]

After that shellacking at SIU...

If the birds finish this season better than 5-6, I’ll be shocked. We needed that O-Line transfer and we never got it. The DBs are STILL susceptible to the big play (which has been a theme for years). And Kolbe is an inconsistent pocket passer who telegraphs where he’s gonna throw.

Quite simply, our football team is not good enough to be a competitor in the ultra-competitive MVFC.

Someone should put a Bird in Gabe Megginson's ear. He's been demoted from the starting unit over in O&B land as Lovie and Co. have been trying to play as many young guys as possible seemingly to show recruits they're willing to play them early. The potential is there under the right coach for Gabe to become a monster on the O Line. Not sure if he's content or not, just a thought.

I guess he wasn't content. Now we need to get him into the fold. He could be a solid player for us at a position of need.

 

[fourthandshort]

so Redbird28 gets kudos for the Gabe Megginson scoop before it was actually a scoop .. and further liked the "put a Bird in his ear" pun .. well played on both counts !!

Gabe Megginson .. we put OL in the NFL and in NFL camps under Spack. Your table is waiting .....

 

[Redbird28]

Sometimes it just takes a little reading between the lines to have a good idea where something is headed.

The Watson thing, on the other hand, caught me completely by surprise. Just an FYI; he has a brother on the NDSU roster so I'd guess if he's going somewhere FCS it might be there to make it easier on mom when traveling from Tampa. If he doesn't go there then I'd guess back down to the Florida area to finish out his college career.

Tre is a really good kid, with an NFL Dad pedigree in his blood. Getting him would be huge, but I don't expect it to happen.