Realistic Expectations

[RollBirds2002]

I'd like to remind everyone that in 2012 the Birds also lost some real crummy games like SIU and MSU and still got it together to finish 8-3 and get a playoff bid. Sometimes, you just don't show up. Let's also not forget that NAU is actually a decent team. The fact that the Birds lost isn't really what bothers me. The fact that it wasn't competitive is what bothers me and that was just due to sloppy play all around. They weren't 21 points outclassed. They were 21 points unprepared.

 

[Manchester Matt]

If we go 3-3 in the Valley the rest of the season, we are definitely in the playoffs. That means we beat at least 2 of USD, WIU, YSU, SDSU, and NDSU and probably SIU. There are 5 top 15 teams on that list.

It will also mean we lost 3 of 5 games vs ranked teams.

Which will be a better resume than every other 7-4 team. Look at the top 25. If we go 7-4, we are absolutely in the playoffs.

 

[DannyCooksey]

i still think this is a really good football team and a really well coached team.

one loss isn't going to make me think the whole season is going to the shit house.

i don't think this team or this season is in the toilet at all.

i think we can win the rest of the games in the reg season. I'm not saying we will but we have the talent and the ability to do so.

 

[fourthandshort]

If we go 3-3 in the Valley the rest of the season, we are definitely in the playoffs. That means we beat at least 2 of USD, WIU, YSU, SDSU, and NDSU and probably SIU. There are 5 top 15 teams on that list.

It will also mean we lost 3 of 5 games vs ranked teams.

Which will be a better resume than every other 7-4 team. Look at the top 25. If we go 7-4, we are absolutely in the playoffs.

This ... no way we can be excluded at 7-4, beating 2 of 5 teams in top 10.

And once they determine top 8 seeds to get byes, we will likely be looking at 4 candidates vying for top 8, and then 5 in top 16 for sure ... and having gone 2-3 against this schedule .. no brainer argument.

For this same reason, we are theoretically in the discussion at 6-5 ... but then we would have to have been competitive in several of losses to top 10 teams.

And don't be surprised if NAU starts to climb in polls. Let's see how bad that loss looks in 6 weeks. And most top 20 teams have a questionable loss already .. with 6 games to go.

 

[fourthandshort]

I'd like to remind everyone that in 2012 the Birds also lost some real crummy games like SIU and MSU and still got it together to finish 8-3 and get a playoff bid. Sometimes, you just don't show up. Let's also not forget that NAU is actually a decent team. The fact that the Birds lost isn't really what bothers me. The fact that it wasn't competitive is what bothers me and that was just due to sloppy play all around. They weren't 21 points outclassed. They were 21 points unprepared.

100% agreed

In 2016, we lost to EIU and InSU, plus handed game to USD ... and still deservedly made playoffs and lost on road to #12 team due to 2 special teams mistakes.

In 2014, we played poorly against EIU (need 3 picks to beat them, but we got outplayed otherwise); we played like crap offensively against weak InSU team (needed last second FG to win), horrible 1st half offensively against WIU (nice 2nd half, but again needed last 2nd FG) , and absolutely horrible game offensively against UNI (lost) in week 8 of regular season .. week 8 ... people were seriously questioning Roberson at QB .. 15 of 37 for 127 yards, 2 picks, 5 sacks .. week 8 !!!

Until NAU game, Kolbe has never played as bad as Roberson's worst games in 2014 .. so some of the naysayers need to jog their selective memories ... Roberson had very uneven 1st half of season in 2014, looked horrible at times .. and he was playing with Coprich, Meredith, Neblett, Oshaughnessy, and a very veteran OL .. and a veteran OC Beathard.

Perspective is very important .. put Kolbe at QB on the 2014 offense, he would be lighting it up.

 

[Source]

It will also mean we lost 3 of 5 games vs ranked teams.

Which will be a better resume than every other 7-4 team. Look at the top 25. If we go 7-4, we are absolutely in the playoffs.

This ... no way we can be excluded at 7-4, beating 2 of 5 teams in top 10.

And once they determine top 8 seeds to get byes, we will likely be looking at 4 candidates vying for top 8, and then 5 in top 16 for sure ... and having gone 2-3 against this schedule .. no brainer argument.

For this same reason, we are theoretically in the discussion at 6-5 ... but then we would have to have been competitive in several of losses to top 10 teams.

And don't be surprised if NAU starts to climb in polls. Let's see how bad that loss looks in 6 weeks. And most top 20 teams have a questionable loss already .. with 6 games to go.

7-4 IN- 6-5 OUT. The committee gave ISU a gift last year, letting them in and it was squandered at Central Arkansas. 0% chance they are that generous this season.

Many have said we currently have one of the best defenses ISU has ever had, which I agree with and it is unfortunate we could be wasting that talent with an inadequate offense. Our offense is kind of weird to me. Yes, from a personnel stand point, they don't appear to be clicking. But there is a lot of talent there that needs to be honed.

Take our top 4 running backs; Smith, Robinson, Henderson, and Birch. I think all 4 of those players are RB1's on any FCS team. Someone mentioned, in this thread or in another, that we need to get more of these guys on the field together. I agree. What if we lined up Robinson and Birch on either side of Kolbe/Malachi, and do the same with Smith and Henderson. It would give us an added dimension.

I've mentioned a few times this season but the QB position needs to be revisited this week. Not that Kolbe needs to be benched, but we need an added dimension to our offense. Remember that play where Kolbe actually kept the ball in the read-option and picked up a first down?? More of that. "If it ain't broke..." with the RB's we have and a dual threat like Malachi, why not try to recreate the tandem that got the Redbirds to the National Championship? Our defense works their asses off and spends too much time on the field. Eventually, errors are going to be made.

Even when the offense is "clicking" (vs Mo State in 3Q and vs Butler) it is still flat and predictable. It seems like our playbook has about 6 or 7 plays in it. It's almost like our OC's are "saving the good plays" for the games against the top of the league. Using a combination between Malachi and Jake moving forward would very much help our team.

7-4 is the goal. 6-5 is the expectation unless a change is made offensively.

 

[ekeyfanclub]

If we go 3-3 in the Valley the rest of the season, we are definitely in the playoffs. That means we beat at least 2 of USD, WIU, YSU, SDSU, and NDSU and probably SIU. There are 5 top 15 teams on that list.

It will also mean we lost 3 of 5 games vs ranked teams.

Which will be a better resume than every other 7-4 team. Look at the top 25. If we go 7-4, we are absolutely in the playoffs.

:text-+1:

 

[StLRedbird]

I think that Spack's style is to delegate responsibilities to a greater extent than many coaches. It's an approach that demands people to grow. But he'll step in and right this ship. Ever season is a story and to suggest that we now know everything we need to know about this group is premature. I don't think I want to be SIU this Saturday.

 

[fourthandshort]

I think that Spack's style is to delegate responsibilities to a greater extent than many coaches. It's an approach that demands people to grow. But he'll step in and right this ship. Ever season is a story and to suggest that we now know everything we need to know about this group is premature. I don't think I want to be SIU this Saturday.

this x 10

 

[dpdoughbird06]

I'd like to remind everyone that in 2012 the Birds also lost some real crummy games like SIU and MSU and still got it together to finish 8-3 and get a playoff bid. Sometimes, you just don't show up. Let's also not forget that NAU is actually a decent team. The fact that the Birds lost isn't really what bothers me. The fact that it wasn't competitive is what bothers me and that was just due to sloppy play all around. They weren't 21 points outclassed. They were 21 points unprepared.

100% agreed

In 2016, we lost to EIU and InSU, plus handed game to USD ... and still deservedly made playoffs and lost on road to #12 team due to 2 special teams mistakes.

In 2014, we played poorly against EIU (need 3 picks to beat them, but we got outplayed otherwise); we played like crap offensively against weak InSU team (needed last second FG to win), horrible 1st half offensively against WIU (nice 2nd half, but again needed last 2nd FG) , and absolutely horrible game offensively against UNI (lost) in week 8 of regular season .. week 8 ... people were seriously questioning Roberson at QB .. 15 of 37 for 127 yards, 2 picks, 5 sacks .. week 8 !!!

Until NAU game, Kolbe has never played as bad as Roberson's worst games in 2014 .. so some of the naysayers need to jog their selective memories ... Roberson had very uneven 1st half of season in 2014, looked horrible at times .. and he was playing with Coprich, Meredith, Neblett, Oshaughnessy, and a very veteran OL .. and a veteran OC Beathard.

Perspective is very important .. put Kolbe at QB on the 2014 offense, he would be lighting it up.

Was 2012 SIU loss the Homecoming shutout at Hancock? Brutal. 2014 at UNI was similar to NAU in that it was in a dome and we just got throttled in our game plan and out of sorts when Tre was forced to try and make something happen. Lots of turnovers.

I'd also like to think we're keeping some things in our pocket for the MVFC grind, similar to MSU busting out those option packages seemingly out of nowhere against us. They probably should have saved it for INSU - a game they can actually win - but that's the point. Once you put something on tape it's out there. My guess is we thought our smash-mouth football would be enough to beat NAU.

I still think (and I know our coaches don't traffic in excuses, so they'll never say it) that the altitude had to wear us out. Team got in on Friday - one day is not enough to adjust to that thin air. My uncle nearly passed out just crossing the street when he first visited by cousin in Colorado. Of course our guys are young athletes, but there's a reason you saw Marshaun training with an oxygen-deprivation mask during his draft prep: breathing is important, and NAU has a huge home-field advantage against us lowlanders.

Over three hours of intense exertion, I can't imagine our guys were operating at our athletic peak while gasping for air - especially in that second half. We needed to run clock to shorten the game, and we didn't. To me, that's the story.

If we somehow lay an egg at SIU, please disregard all of the above, but I think we come out and steamroll them like the Rabbits did.

 

[Manchester Matt]

I'd like to remind everyone that in 2012 the Birds also lost some real crummy games like SIU and MSU and still got it together to finish 8-3 and get a playoff bid. Sometimes, you just don't show up. Let's also not forget that NAU is actually a decent team. The fact that the Birds lost isn't really what bothers me. The fact that it wasn't competitive is what bothers me and that was just due to sloppy play all around. They weren't 21 points outclassed. They were 21 points unprepared.

100% agreed

In 2016, we lost to EIU and InSU, plus handed game to USD ... and still deservedly made playoffs and lost on road to #12 team due to 2 special teams mistakes.

In 2014, we played poorly against EIU (need 3 picks to beat them, but we got outplayed otherwise); we played like crap offensively against weak InSU team (needed last second FG to win), horrible 1st half offensively against WIU (nice 2nd half, but again needed last 2nd FG) , and absolutely horrible game offensively against UNI (lost) in week 8 of regular season .. week 8 ... people were seriously questioning Roberson at QB .. 15 of 37 for 127 yards, 2 picks, 5 sacks .. week 8 !!!

Until NAU game, Kolbe has never played as bad as Roberson's worst games in 2014 .. so some of the naysayers need to jog their selective memories ... Roberson had very uneven 1st half of season in 2014, looked horrible at times .. and he was playing with Coprich, Meredith, Neblett, Oshaughnessy, and a very veteran OL .. and a veteran OC Beathard.

Perspective is very important .. put Kolbe at QB on the 2014 offense, he would be lighting it up.

Was 2012 SIU loss the Homecoming shutout at Hancock? Brutal. 2014 at UNI was similar to NAU in that it was in a dome and we just got throttled in our game plan and out of sorts when Tre was forced to try and make something happen. Lots of turnovers.

I'd also like to think we're keeping some things in our pocket for the MVFC grind, similar to MSU busting out those option packages seemingly out of nowhere against us. They probably should have saved it for INSU - a game they can actually win - but that's the point. Once you put something on tape it's out there. My guess is we thought our smash-mouth football would be enough to beat NAU.

I still think (and I know our coaches don't traffic in excuses, so they'll never say it) that the altitude had to wear us out. Team got in on Friday - one day is not enough to adjust to that thin air. My uncle nearly passed out just crossing the street when he first visited by cousin in Colorado. Of course our guys are young athletes, but there's a reason you saw Marshaun training with an oxygen-deprivation mask during his draft prep: breathing is important, and NAU has a huge home-field advantage against us lowlanders.

Over three hours of intense exertion, I can't imagine our guys were operating at our athletic peak while gasping for air - especially in that second half. We needed to run clock to shorten the game, and we didn't. To me, that's the story.

If we somehow lay an egg at SIU, please disregard all of the above, but I think we come out and steamroll them like the Rabbits did.

All valid points. And then I remember that Western took NAU to the woodshed.

‘Birds need a convincing win Saturday for me to believe they can be a factor in the conference race/playoffs.

 

[Chi-bird]

I would be that 7-4 gets us in, but it's no lock.

 

[StLRedbird]

One last thought on the NAU game... We're goin' to Fort Collins next year right? Athletes are a superstitious bunch. I sure hope they don't go into that game thinking altitude had anything to do with happened in Flagstaff.

 

[MadBird]

Might as well post this here. Was watching some of the UNI-WIU game Saturday, and at one point they put up a graphic that showed the Top 5 all-time MVFC coaching wins. Coach Spack is already #5. All-time. More than Craig Bohl. More than Jerry Kill.

Good man.

 

[Source]

Which will be a better resume than every other 7-4 team. Look at the top 25. If we go 7-4, we are absolutely in the playoffs.

This ... no way we can be excluded at 7-4, beating 2 of 5 teams in top 10.

And once they determine top 8 seeds to get byes, we will likely be looking at 4 candidates vying for top 8, and then 5 in top 16 for sure ... and having gone 2-3 against this schedule .. no brainer argument.

For this same reason, we are theoretically in the discussion at 6-5 ... but then we would have to have been competitive in several of losses to top 10 teams.

And don't be surprised if NAU starts to climb in polls. Let's see how bad that loss looks in 6 weeks. And most top 20 teams have a questionable loss already .. with 6 games to go.

I've mentioned a few times this season but the QB position needs to be revisited this week. Not that Kolbe needs to be benched, but we need an added dimension to our offense. Remember that play where Kolbe actually kept the ball in the read-option and picked up a first down?? More of that. "If it ain't broke..." with the RB's we have and a dual threat like Malachi, why not try to recreate the tandem that got the Redbirds to the National Championship? Our defense works their asses off and spends too much time on the field. Eventually, errors are going to be made.

Even when the offense is "clicking" (vs Mo State in 3Q and vs Butler) it is still flat and predictable. It seems like our playbook has about 6 or 7 plays in it. It's almost like our OC's are "saving the good plays" for the games against the top of the league. Using a combination between Malachi and Jake moving forward would very much help our team.

Just to justify this post with a quote from the coach. Per Reinhardt

More Malachi?: Spack acknowledged he considered temporarily replacing quarterback Jake Kolbe with Malachi Broadnax as the Redbird offense struggled against Northern Arizona.

“He’s a totally different look. I really mulled that over,” Spack said. “I should have done that, particularly late in the first half. For the rest of the season, that will be in play.”

Broadnax saw action in the second half of ISU’s first three games with the Redbirds comfortably ahead. The redshirt freshman has attempted just five passes but has been a dynamic rusher with 118 yards on 12 carries.

Spack emphasized any such move would not be a benching of Kolbe, but an opportunity to watch the opposing defense from the sideline before reentering the game.

http://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/football/isu-moving-on-from-first-loss-of-season/article_00ac0392-a9e2-5276-9bea-897bc9662a99.html

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Might as well post this here. Was watching some of the UNI-WIU game Saturday, and at one point they put up a graphic that showed the Top 5 all-time MVFC coaching wins. Coach Spack is already #5. All-time. More than Craig Bohl. More than Jerry Kill.

Good man.

At first it surprised me that Spack had already achieved that level of success. But the reality is that the successful winners at this level generally move up fairly quick to the big league before they run up a significant number of wins. Hopefully Spack is the exception to the rule and hangs out at ISU.

 

[MadBird]

Might as well post this here. Was watching some of the UNI-WIU game Saturday, and at one point they put up a graphic that showed the Top 5 all-time MVFC coaching wins. Coach Spack is already #5. All-time. More than Craig Bohl. More than Jerry Kill.

Good man.

At first it surprised me that Spack had already achieved that level of success. But the reality is that the successful winners at this level generally move up fairly quick to the big league before they run up a significant number of wins. Hopefully Spack is the exception to the rule and hangs out at ISU.

Actually, that isn't the reality. Not that many have moved on to bigger and/or better things (ie. some moved up but didn't do all that well). Jerry Kill and Jim Tressel are a couple who moved up, Craig Bohl. Terry Allen (but he's ahead of Spack anyway), Todd Berry could have moved up the list had he stayed. Most of the guys with fewer wins didn't really move on up and out.

It sort of calls into question the idea of success at FCS being a stepping stone. Or else just says that lots of these coaches just appreciate what they have at the FCS level and hang with it.

Check out the list. See if I missed some names of guys who moved on and were successful.
http://www.mvc.org/football/records.pdf

 

[fourthandshort]

I'd like to remind everyone that in 2012 the Birds also lost some real crummy games like SIU and MSU and still got it together to finish 8-3 and get a playoff bid. Sometimes, you just don't show up. Let's also not forget that NAU is actually a decent team. The fact that the Birds lost isn't really what bothers me. The fact that it wasn't competitive is what bothers me and that was just due to sloppy play all around. They weren't 21 points outclassed. They were 21 points unprepared.

100% agreed

In 2016, we lost to EIU and InSU, plus handed game to USD ... and still deservedly made playoffs and lost on road to #12 team due to 2 special teams mistakes.

In 2014, we played poorly against EIU (need 3 picks to beat them, but we got outplayed otherwise); we played like crap offensively against weak InSU team (needed last second FG to win), horrible 1st half offensively against WIU (nice 2nd half, but again needed last 2nd FG) , and absolutely horrible game offensively against UNI (lost) in week 8 of regular season .. week 8 ... people were seriously questioning Roberson at QB .. 15 of 37 for 127 yards, 2 picks, 5 sacks .. week 8 !!!

Until NAU game, Kolbe has never played as bad as Roberson's worst games in 2014 .. so some of the naysayers need to jog their selective memories ... Roberson had very uneven 1st half of season in 2014, looked horrible at times .. and he was playing with Coprich, Meredith, Neblett, Oshaughnessy, and a very veteran OL .. and a veteran OC Beathard.

Perspective is very important .. put Kolbe at QB on the 2014 offense, he would be lighting it up.

Was 2012 SIU loss the Homecoming shutout at Hancock? Brutal. 2014 at UNI was similar to NAU in that it was in a dome and we just got throttled in our game plan and out of sorts when Tre was forced to try and make something happen. Lots of turnovers.

I'd also like to think we're keeping some things in our pocket for the MVFC grind, similar to MSU busting out those option packages seemingly out of nowhere against us. They probably should have saved it for INSU - a game they can actually win - but that's the point. Once you put something on tape it's out there. My guess is we thought our smash-mouth football would be enough to beat NAU.

I still think (and I know our coaches don't traffic in excuses, so they'll never say it) that the altitude had to wear us out. Team got in on Friday - one day is not enough to adjust to that thin air. My uncle nearly passed out just crossing the street when he first visited by cousin in Colorado. Of course our guys are young athletes, but there's a reason you saw Marshaun training with an oxygen-deprivation mask during his draft prep: breathing is important, and NAU has a huge home-field advantage against us lowlanders.

Over three hours of intense exertion, I can't imagine our guys were operating at our athletic peak while gasping for air - especially in that second half. We needed to run clock to shorten the game, and we didn't. To me, that's the story.

If we somehow lay an egg at SIU, please disregard all of the above, but I think we come out and steamroll them like the Rabbits did.

DPdough ... yes. the SIU shutout loss was homecoming. People were wanting to fire the OC, bench our soon to be hall of fame QB Brown .. especially after we lost to 3-8 MoST 2 weeks latet .. again at home. Guess who everyone wanted to see at QB ... back up Cam Meredith

Guess how that turned out .. final 8 play off run .. Brown finished the season #1 in MVFC in pass yards per game, and a very close 2nd in QBR. Every big game (except EWU Padron) against a top QB, Brown held statistical advantage .. EIU Garrapolo (#1 FCS 2013 QB, YSU Hess, UNI Kollmorgan (#1 MVFC 2012 QB), NDSU Jensen (#1 MVFC 2013 QB), Appy St Jackson ... and is now viewed as one of our best QBs ever.

Oh .. and Meredith is being viewed as one of our best WRs ever to come out of ISU .. though just one great year.

But people wanted to bench or platoon Matt Brown that year after the SIU and MoST games midseason.

Sometmes sh-t happens. Let's give this another week or 2, get OL settled down and fix the run game. Then figure out how to strike proper run/pass balance each game depending on who we are playing. NAU played out of their minds, maybe our coaches tried too hard to downplay altitude factor .. who knows .. but it is very real factor.

Spack and coaches have recovered from losses like this before .. give this a chance !!!

p.s. and Spack did say we will have a Broadnax package for every game go forward .. kind of stupid that NAU was only game we didn't being him in.

 

[RBFANTOO]

DPdough ... yes. the SIU shutout loss was homecoming. People were wanting to fire the OC, bench our soon to be hall of fame QB Brown .. especially after we lost to 3-8 MoST 2 weeks latet .. again at home. Guess who everyone wanted to see at QB ... back up Cam Meredith

Guess how that turned out .. final 8 play off run .. Brown finished the season #1 in MVFC in pass yards per game, and a very close 2nd in QBR. Every big game (except EWU Padron) against a top QB, Brown held statistical advantage .. EIU Garrapolo (#1 FCS 2013 QB, YSU Hess, UNI Kollmorgan (#1 MVFC 2012 QB), NDSU Jensen (#1 MVFC 2013 QB), Appy St Jackson ... and is now viewed as one of our best QBs ever.

Thanks for jogging my memory regarding Matt Brown. I remember thinking at the time that he was a great and very underestimated and unappreciated Redbird QB. As you have pointed out his stats speak for his talent "and is now viewed as one of our best QBs ever".

 

[redbirddad10]

Funny that Matt Brown comes up because I was just thinking what a great QB he was. Lets also not forget what an extraordinary receiver Tyrone Walker was. That combination was one of the best I've ever seen. Tyrone made Matt look good (I'll never forget the pass he took of the back of a defender in a game, I don't remember the game, home???) and Matt was the whole package; big arm, could run, tough, great leader, stepped up in big games. That was a fun team to watch and a lot of unsung hero's; o-line [Cody White first year at Tackle], Neukirk (all-american HB); tough LB's [Howe, Zimmer]. D-line everyone remembers. Mentally tough group with a major chip on their shoulders.