Realistic Expectations

[saxman210]

After dropping that not-very-competitive game at Northern Arizona, I think it’s fair to re-evaluate this team and figure out what our expectations are.

It seems pretty clear that the strength of our team is our defensive line and that teams aren’t going to be able to do anything on the ground against us. Conversely, our weakness is our offensive line. Against good competition, Kolbe won’t get the time he needs and that elite stable of running backs that we are supposed to showcase won’t get the holes it needs to get going.

My expectations for the rest of the year:
@SIU- Birds Win
Vs USD- Birds Loss
@YSU- Birds Loss
Vs WIU- Birds Win
@SDSU- Birds Loss
Vs NDSU- Birds Loss

We will be 6-5 going into playoff selection and be looking for help just like last year.

Thoughts?

 

[chuckie1980]

I am not going to give up on this team....(and never will)...I wished the defense was showing its good side throughout the NAU game...but it was not difficult to see that the defense kept us in the game...but the offense never delivered while on the field.

Usually the better special teams tend to side with the winning team. We finally have some great legs in the kicking department....and still lose...egads. The NAU environment was nice for cutting trees down.

I have been curious what the players had to experience in getting to the field from Normal. Great easy flight? Etc. I only saw moments when the Birds seemed to have some energy.

I expect the Birds will be 3-3 for the rest of the season....but will never rule out any surprises.

 

[BallwinBird2012]

After dropping that not-very-competitive game at Northern Arizona, I think it’s fair to re-evaluate this team and figure out what our expectations are.

It seems pretty clear that the strength of our team is our defensive line and that teams aren’t going to be able to do anything on the ground against us. Conversely, our weakness is our offensive line. Against good competition, Kolbe won’t get the time he needs and that elite stable of running backs that we are supposed to showcase won’t get the holes it needs to get going.

My expectations for the rest of the year:
@SIU- Birds Win
Vs USD- Birds Loss
@YSU- Birds Loss
Vs WIU- Birds Win
@SDSU- Birds Loss
Vs NDSU- Birds Loss

We will be 6-5 going into playoff selection and be looking for help just like last year.

Thoughts?

:text-+1:

This was pretty much the way I thought the season would play out after the ISUb game, but I did think we'd be strong enough to beat NAU and finish at 7-4.

I do still think we'll be competitive in every game, but that schedule is just brutal, and I've not seen anything from our offense that gives me too much hope against some of the top tier defenses we'll see.

 

[Source]

The Redbirds have to get to 7-4 to be considered for a playoff bid. After getting in at 6-5 last season and stinking up the field at Central Arkansas, there is no way the committee makes that "mistake" two years in a row. ISU needs to win 3 of their remaining 6. Most likely way to do that would be beating Southern, and stealing a couple from Western and South Dakota. Though, YSU did show weakness in their game at USD. USD was up in the third quarter 28-14.

 

[DaveBird10]

I've been concerned about the o-line, play calling and offense since the eiu game. Need to go 3-3 and protect home field. Should beat Siu and then need to beat wiu and south Dakota at home. That will get you 7-4 in a very competitive mvfc. Problem still remains the o-line, play calling and offense hadn't been right for 3 games now.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

[cpacmel]

We will be 6-5 going into playoff selection and be looking for help just like last year.

Thoughts?

@ 6-5 we have no shot at the play-offs this year. Last year the only reason our 6-5 got us in was our win @ FBS Northwestern.

7-4 or bust this year.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

Front 7 are rock solid, but I have less live than most for our secondary.
I've seen Harris get burned too many times over the last few years to understand all the love he's getting.
We're 88th on interceptions. Nuf said in that department.
Play calling absolutely needs to change and it's time to see what Broadnax can do. At the very least, mix it up for cryin' out loud.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

After dropping that not-very-competitive game at Northern Arizona, I think it’s fair to re-evaluate this team and figure out what our expectations are.

It seems pretty clear that the strength of our team is our defensive line and that teams aren’t going to be able to do anything on the ground against us. Conversely, our weakness is our offensive line. Against good competition, Kolbe won’t get the time he needs and that elite stable of running backs that we are supposed to showcase won’t get the holes it needs to get going.

My expectations for the rest of the year:
@SIU- Birds Win
Vs USD- Birds Loss
@YSU- Birds Loss
Vs WIU- Birds Win
@SDSU- Birds Loss
Vs NDSU- Birds Loss

We will be 6-5 going into playoff selection and be looking for help just like last year.

Thoughts?

I think that seems about right although the WIU win certainly looks to be in jeopardy as well.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

If Kolbe doesn’t have time to get off passes, give a drive or two to Broadnax. One way to deal with O-Line issues is with a very mobile QB.

I said this off-season that an OL transfer was my biggest wish. I though we had a guy or two we were going to nab, but it didn’t pan out. If we can get one or two next offseason, that will really help!

Next week at SIU is a must win. Need it to hit seven wins and need it for a boost going into homecoming. I remember facing a top-10 SDSU team for homecoming and winning a great game. Let’s do the same this time!

 

[Hamdonger]

I don't necessarily agree with the 6-5 record and we're out. If ISU can beat the right ones (and depending on how those 'right ones' end up record-wise) we'd still have a shot at getting in. Main factor being the conference we play in.

I'd take 7 over 6, though. You know, I think I'd take 8 over 7. And come to think of it, 9 over 8 sounds pretty fantastic.

Young OL. Gonna be problematic. Hope they grow up quick.

 

[Chi-bird]

I don't think 7-4 necessarily gets it done.

 

[Total Red]

No "re-evaluation" here. I said 7-4 at the end of August camp and I'm sticking with it.

 

[fourthandshort]

We will be 6-5 going into playoff selection and be looking for help just like last year.

Thoughts?

@ 6-5 we have no shot at the play-offs this year. Last year the only reason our 6-5 got us in was our win @ FBS Northwestern.

7-4 or bust this year.

So for 7-4, this means we need to go 3-3, which means we would finish MVFC at 5-3 and should be a lock.

Even if we go 6-5, this means we finish 2-4, which means we finish MVFC at 4-4 ... which ought to be enough given how tough MVFC is this year. But only way we get in is if we win 1 of last 5, and are real competitive in at least 3 of our 4 MVFC losses to top 10 teams.

So while last season's 6-5 got us because of NW win, we also got in for winning 4 of last 5 to close season. This year, we will be playing 5 teams in or around the Top 10 to close season .. which probably means (assuming 6-5), we would lose 4 of last 5, after starting 5-1.

Only way we get in at 6-5 is if we play very tough in losing 4 of last 5 ... that will be very tall order, and even then unlikely to get another bid at 6-5 .. even if deserved.

So got to go 7-4 .. with means beat SIU and WIU .. then win 1 of 4 against USD (home), YSU. NDSU (home), and SDSU.

Back to drawing board for OL and offensive schemes.

 

[crazzymark]

end of the season unless Brock can change QB if needed ..if just for a few downs...

 

[crazzymark]

no playoffs then..fourthandshort is correct..7-4....not good enough

 

[Chi-bird]

We will be 6-5 going into playoff selection and be looking for help just like last year.

Thoughts?

@ 6-5 we have no shot at the play-offs this year. Last year the only reason our 6-5 got us in was our win @ FBS Northwestern.

7-4 or bust this year.

So for 7-4, this means we need to go 3-3, which means we would finish MVFC at 5-3 and should be a lock.

Even if we go 6-5, this means we finish 2-4, which means we finish MVFC at 4-4 ... which ought to be enough given how tough MVFC is this year. But only way we get in is if we win 1 of last 5, and are real competitive in at least 3 of our 4 MVFC losses to top 10 teams.

So while last season's 6-5 got us because of NW win, we also got in for winning 4 of last 5 to close season. This year, we will be playing 5 teams in or around the Top 10 to close season .. which probably means (assuming 6-5), we would lose 4 of last 5, after starting 5-1.

Only way we get in at 6-5 is if we play very tough in losing 4 of last 5 ... that will be very tall order, and even then unlikely to get another bid at 6-5 .. even if deserved.

So got to go 7-4 .. with means beat SIU and WIU .. then win 1 of 4 against USD (home), YSU. NDSU (home), and SDSU.

Back to drawing board for OL and offensive schemes.

Five and three in the valley may not matter if you don't take care of business in the non-con against teams that you should beat. .

We appear to be the 6th best team in the conference.

 

[ekeyfanclub]

If we go 3-3 in the Valley the rest of the season, we are definitely in the playoffs. That means we beat at least 2 of USD, WIU, YSU, SDSU, and NDSU and probably SIU. There are 5 top 15 teams on that list.

 

[Chi-bird]

If we go 3-3 in the Valley the rest of the season, we are definitely in the playoffs. That means we beat at least 2 of USD, WIU, YSU, SDSU, and NDSU and probably SIU. There are 5 top 15 teams on that list.

It will also mean we lost 3 of 5 games vs ranked teams.

 

[birdsflyhigh]

Basically SIU on Saturday is HUGE...7-4 out of the MVFC should be more than enough to get into the playoffs.

Alright, GO GET 'EM BIRDS! :happy-bouncyred:

 

[Redbirdwarrior]

Wow. You guys really go sour fast. I'm glad to see you are at least consistent with the "sky is falling" mentality across all boards and it isn't just stuck in the basketball forum.

Everyone chill. The team in general had played 4 easy ass games to this point and you had to know flying to a new part of the country and playing a team like NAU- who is pretty solid offensively, was not going to be in that level. Kolbe got exposed, the O-Line got exposed and the defense got cocky after being, on paper, the best in all of Division 1 through early October.

Now the birds are 4-1 and have had their wake up call. I think this could be a good thing in the long term. Of all the games on the schedule I think would be a great time to get smacked in the mouth, it is this one. Non-con on the road against a non-rival. Brock Spack is probably burying his foot in the asses of half the team today and will all week. To this point, the team has had no reason to be anything but cocky. I expect this to re-focus everyone before the meat of our schedule.

Now, to the point of expectations- ISU will lose ONE game at home this year and it will be against North Dakota St. Those guys are easily a T25 FBS team, much less an FCS team. I'd say they are by far my favorites to win in Frisco. That said, I see it going like this.

@SIU- Birds Win
Vs USD- Birds Win
@YSU- Push? Let's say Birds win a close one.
Vs WIU- Birds Win
@SDSU- Birds Loss (close)
Vs NDSU- Birds Loss (not close)

So I see 8-3 and ranked like 20 going into the playoffs.

I do agree that 6-5 will NOT get a bid this year because of last year, but 7-4 is a lock. A 7-4 MVFC team is a 9-2 team nearly anywhere else in FCS.

I'd LOVE to see more packages mid-game for Broadnax. Id love to see some creativity with both Kolbe and MB in the backfield with Robinson. Think of the options at that point.

Also, I'm not giving up on Jake, but I think the game is no longer in favor of the pocket passer at this level. The O-Lines are not good enough to consistently build a secure pocket and I believe the game now requires you to have a QB that is a threat to run 20+ every down, thus forcing teams to take 1-2 LB out of coverage to spy. I guess I just miss Tre, but who doesn't. I think I could have run for 1000 yards if Roberson were running the read option with me.

Overall- nobody panic. I think things will be fine.