Realistic Expectations

[fourthandshort]

Funny that Matt Brown comes up because I was just thinking what a great QB he was. Lets also not forget what an extraordinary receiver Tyrone Walker was. That combination was one of the best I've ever seen. Tyrone made Matt look good (I'll never forget the pass he took of the back of a defender in a game, I don't remember the game, home???) and Matt was the whole package; big arm, could run, tough, great leader, stepped up in big games. That was a fun team to watch and a lot of unsung hero's; o-line [Cody White first year at Tackle], Neukirk (all-american HB); tough LB's [Howe, Zimmer]. D-line everyone remembers. Mentally tough group with a major chip on their shoulders.

Yep .. very talented tough team with lot of experience .. who laid 2 eggs mid season.

 

[dpdoughbird06]

Funny that Matt Brown comes up because I was just thinking what a great QB he was. Lets also not forget what an extraordinary receiver Tyrone Walker was. That combination was one of the best I've ever seen. Tyrone made Matt look good (I'll never forget the pass he took of the back of a defender in a game, I don't remember the game, home???) and Matt was the whole package; big arm, could run, tough, great leader, stepped up in big games. That was a fun team to watch and a lot of unsung hero's; o-line [Cody White first year at Tackle], Neukirk (all-american HB); tough LB's [Howe, Zimmer]. D-line everyone remembers. Mentally tough group with a major chip on their shoulders.

Yep .. very talented tough team with lot of experience .. who laid 2 eggs mid season.

From this week's Coaches Show:

- Coach Spack emphasized how you can't overlook a game because of shared opponents or who has beaten who has beaten who - each game takes on a life of its own.

- We were due for a rough game, but he thought we'd respond but too many stupid penalties, some sloppiness, and unexpectedly fast game speed from NAU on both sides of the ball versus what they'd seen on tape. Handful of plays coaches thought were going 80+ yards got blown up by speed.

- On the plus side, he said they expected to see some loafing and half-assing plays on the film of NAU game, but turns out the effort was there.

- We should also expect to see some WRs that have yet to play this year get a shot this week after current starters failed to separate vs NAU.

- Young O-line saw some defensive stunts and alignments that they weren't used to and crumbled in run blocking.

- Slattery (player guest) said Coach told him before NU game winner: "You do this every day. Just go out there and kick it."

- Slattery is a former LB and gives us a de facto 11th man on the coverage team. High confidence in him as last line of defense.

- morans14 bought extra Grove Street Bakery (conveniently located next door to Schooners) cookies to score me brownie (or is it cookie...) points with the wife.

- I have to go again next week, as Coach's wife has requested to hold my baby boy (usually I pass him between Cindy00 and morans14 til he fusses), so maybe I'll start recapping the show here every week...

 

[Morans14]

Funny that Matt Brown comes up because I was just thinking what a great QB he was. Lets also not forget what an extraordinary receiver Tyrone Walker was. That combination was one of the best I've ever seen. Tyrone made Matt look good (I'll never forget the pass he took of the back of a defender in a game, I don't remember the game, home???) and Matt was the whole package; big arm, could run, tough, great leader, stepped up in big games. That was a fun team to watch and a lot of unsung hero's; o-line [Cody White first year at Tackle], Neukirk (all-american HB); tough LB's [Howe, Zimmer]. D-line everyone remembers. Mentally tough group with a major chip on their shoulders.

Yep .. very talented tough team with lot of experience .. who laid 2 eggs mid season.

From this week's Coaches Show:

- Coach Spack emphasized how you can't overlook a game because of shared opponents or who has beaten who has beaten who - each game takes on a life of its own.

- We were due for a rough game, but he thought we'd respond but too many stupid penalties, some sloppiness, and unexpectedly fast game speed from NAU on both sides of the ball versus what they'd seen on tape. Handful of plays coaches thought were going 80+ yards got blown up by speed.

- On the plus side, he said they expected to see some loafing and half-assing plays on the film of NAU game, but turns out the effort was there.

- We should also expect to see some WRs that have yet to play this year get a shot this week after current starters failed to separate vs NAU.

- Young O-line saw some defensive stunts and alignments that they weren't used to and crumbled in run blocking.

- Slattery (player guest) said Coach told him before NU game winner: "You do this every day. Just go out there and kick it."

- Slattery is a former LB and gives us a de facto 11th man on the coverage team. High confidence in him as last line of defense.

- morans14 bought extra Grove Street Bakery (conveniently located next door to Schooners) cookies to score me brownie (or is it cookie...) points with the wife.

- I have to go again next week, as Coach's wife has requested to hold my baby boy (usually I pass him between Cindy00 and morans14 til he fusses), so maybe I'll start recapping the show here every week...

Nice recap. I suppose I can give up baby holding privileges for a week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[saxman210]

After that shellacking at SIU...

If the birds finish this season better than 5-6, I’ll be shocked. We needed that O-Line transfer and we never got it. The DBs are STILL susceptible to the big play (which has been a theme for years). And Kolbe is an inconsistent pocket passer who telegraphs where he’s gonna throw.

Quite simply, our football team is not good enough to be a competitor in the ultra-competitive MVFC.

 

[TreRoberson4Heisman]

Going to be borderline postseason. Wow.

Kind of a hot take here — I wouldn’t be surprised to maybe see Kolbe grad transfer for his personal aspirations with Broadnax and Hatfield on the horizon.

 

[Redbird28]

After that shellacking at SIU...

If the birds finish this season better than 5-6, I’ll be shocked. We needed that O-Line transfer and we never got it. The DBs are STILL susceptible to the big play (which has been a theme for years). And Kolbe is an inconsistent pocket passer who telegraphs where he’s gonna throw.

Quite simply, our football team is not good enough to be a competitor in the ultra-competitive MVFC.

Someone should put a Bird in Gabe Megginson's ear. He's been demoted from the starting unit over in O&B land as Lovie and Co. have been trying to play as many young guys as possible seemingly to show recruits they're willing to play them early. The potential is there under the right coach for Gabe to become a monster on the O Line. Not sure if he's content or not, just a thought.

 

[saxman210]

With 4 games remaining, I think we need to win 2 to think about postseason.

@YSU
WIU
@SDSU
NDSU

If we can just hold serve at Hancock and beat WIU and NDSU, we’re in. That’s a tough task though.

I honestly think we have a SHOT at 6-5, especially if NAU keeps winning and ends up being ranked in the top 20. That would mean our 4 of our 5 losses would be against ranked teams (SIU).

Thoughts?

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

With 4 games remaining, I think we need to win 2 to think about postseason.

@YSU
WIU
@SDSU
NDSU

If we can just hold serve at Hancock and beat WIU and NDSU, we’re in. That’s a tough task though.

I honestly think we have a SHOT at 6-5, especially if NAU keeps winning and ends up being ranked in the top 20. That would mean our 4 of our 5 losses would be against ranked teams (SIU).

Thoughts?

I do not believe that 6-5 gets ISU into the playoffs especially if we are 5th/6th place in the MVFC. I guess it could happen if we defeat NDSU soundly and are very competitive in the remaining games that we lose (and it also depends on what the remaining MVFC teams do as well as what happens nationally). I also believe 7-4 should do it unless we barely defeat YSU and either WIU or SDSU and get blown out in the other two games. Getting blown out multiple times (which would be all 4 losses if that happens) is a bad optic even with a 7-4 record and a couple of quality wins.

 

[fourthandshort]

if we show up and have strong game plans like we did for USD, we can win 3 of last 4, but most certainly can go 2-2. YSU (match up very well) and WIU (match up well, plus home game) are most logical to expect a win. SDSU came back to earth, and is therefore winnable but tough road game. And I would never rule out beating NDSU at home. Not saying we will 3 games, but saying we can realistically.

Need to team that showed up last Saturday, along with game plans that play to what we do best and who we are playing .. it all starts with run game. Hope Gibbs is healthy to take some pressure off Schnell ... pssst ... TE too !!

That said ...

8-3 record should get us top 8 consideration

7-4 record should be a playoff lock

6-5 should put us on bubble .. all depends on how NAU and SIU do rest of season. If they do pretty well, we should be 50/50 or better. if they slip .. not looking good.

NAU has 2 tough road games (SUU and Montana) then 2 home games they should win

SIU has 2 tough road games (USD and WIU) and then 1 tough home game (YSU and MoST).

Redbird nation and MVFC advocates .. don't fall into trap of thinking we should only get 5 teams. This year the MVFC clearly deserves 6 or 7 teams - logically can only expect 6 at most.

So 6 MVFC playoff teams is the number this year .. hope Patty V is paying attention. We are deeper this year than 2014 ... period.

 

[MadBird]

I know YSU is YSU, and we've had our problems with them in the past altho the series is tied, but they have a losing record at this point. Granted, OT loss to Pitt. Loss to USD team we just beat. Loss to UNI, which was .500 at the time. So, we come in 5-2, vs. a 3-4 team. We can do it. We stole one from them there a couple years ago.

WIU also lost to USD. And beat Northern AZ. Great old rivalry. Good that its a home game. That's another one I would think we could take.

 

[StLRedbird]

I know YSU is YSU, and we've had our problems with them in the past altho the series is tied, but they have a losing record at this point. Granted, OT loss to Pitt. Loss to USD team we just beat. Loss to UNI, which was .500 at the time. So, we come in 5-2, vs. a 3-4 team. We can do it. We stole one from them there a couple years ago.

WIU also lost to USD. And beat Northern AZ. Great old rivalry. Good that its a home game. That's another one I would think we could take.

So, is this an unrealistic expectation? It is at least possible that our OL could come together and become a net positive for the team. They're young in terms of game experience, so they're still learning on the job. Maybe we'll look back on the USD game as the one where they finally jelled. If so, we could become pretty dangerous.

USD folks thought that their young OL was the big difference for them between this year and last - at least 'til they met our front seven. Wouldn't be surprised if their confidence had been shaken by the encounter.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

I know YSU is YSU, and we've had our problems with them in the past altho the series is tied, but they have a losing record at this point. Granted, OT loss to Pitt. Loss to USD team we just beat. Loss to UNI, which was .500 at the time. So, we come in 5-2, vs. a 3-4 team. We can do it. We stole one from them there a couple years ago.

WIU also lost to USD. And beat Northern AZ. Great old rivalry. Good that its a home game. That's another one I would think we could take.

So, is this an unrealistic expectation? It is at least possible that our OL could come together and become a net positive for the team. They're young in terms of game experience, so they're still learning on the job. Maybe we'll look back on the USD game as the one where they finally jelled. If so, we could become pretty dangerous.

USD folks thought that their young OL was the big difference for them between this year and last - at least 'til they met our front seven. Wouldn't be surprised if their confidence had been shaken by the encounter.

USD is a solid team, they still have a lot of winning to do. They caught us with our back against the wall, and we responded.

 

[Total Red]

I know YSU is YSU, and we've had our problems with them in the past altho the series is tied, but they have a losing record at this point. Granted, OT loss to Pitt. Loss to USD team we just beat. Loss to UNI, which was .500 at the time. So, we come in 5-2, vs. a 3-4 team. We can do it. We stole one from them there a couple years ago.

WIU also lost to USD. And beat Northern AZ. Great old rivalry. Good that its a home game. That's another one I would think we could take.

So, is this an unrealistic expectation? It is at least possible that our OL could come together and become a net positive for the team. They're young in terms of game experience, so they're still learning on the job. Maybe we'll look back on the USD game as the one where they finally jelled. If so, we could become pretty dangerous.

USD folks thought that their young OL was the big difference for them between this year and last - at least 'til they met our front seven. Wouldn't be surprised if their confidence had been shaken by the encounter.

Youngstown must be having issues with their O-Line as well. Looks at these stats from their 14-19 loss to UNI. They gave up 10 sacks for minus 56 yards and had just 1.3 per carry rushing. It could be a good day to be a Redbird D-Lineman.

On the other hand South Dakota had the advantage in virtually every statistical category going into our game and look how that one turned out. As San Antonio pointed out we played well at home with our "back against the wall". YSU is a proud team so they could do the same. I'll be rooting hard for Dalton K and the D-Boys but I expect YSU to prevail.

 

[fourthandshort]

TR or anyone .. on a read option play where QB never drops into pocket and keeps ball on a read opton play, but gets tackled behind line of scrimmage ... is that a QB sack or just a TFL ?? Clearly the QB becomes a runner, not a passer in that situation .. but is tackled behind line.

I ask because YSU has given up 26 sacks, last in MVFC and 8 more than 9th place ... and looks like a lot were against UNI. But maybe some of those Sacks are really TFLs ?

 

[Source]

I've mentioned this a few times but figured I would again. 6-5 does not get us in. Last year was the first time they let in a 6-5 team and it didn't turn out well. What are the odds they let that same 6-5 team in again? 6-5=out. 7-4 =in. 8-3= on the bubble for a top 8 seed. 9-2= top 5 seed.

One game at a time.

 

[fourthandshort]

I've mentioned this a few times but figured I would again. 6-5 does not get us in. Last year was the first time they let in a 6-5 team and it didn't turn out well. What are the odds they let that same 6-5 team in again? 6-5=out. 7-4 =in. 8-3= on the bubble for a top 8 seed. 9-2= top 5 seed.

One game at a time.

you have bad info.

WIU got in at 6-5 in 2015, won 1st round game before losing to us in round of 16. And last year, we got in at 6-5, and lost by 7 to the #12 on the road .. arguably would have won if not for 2 special teams miscues in Q4 that gave them 10 points and momentum swing.

This year, the MVFC is stronger/deeper than 2014 when we got 5 and dominated. According to Massey Composite of 35 polls, we have the following ranked teams: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 15, 17, 24.

If Massey Composite were THE source for playoff bids, we would have 7 teams in and 1 on bubble today. And the one bubble is only because there are usually 3-5 autobids (PFL, MEAC, NEC, Big South, Patriot) who get in even though they do not deserve a top 24 bid.

I think it is near mathematical certainty that a 4-4 MVFC team who lost 1 non-conf (usu. FBS) to go 6-5 overall will get in this year .. or at least should get in. They will have at least 4 of 5 losses to FBS and highly ranked FCS teams; and at least 2 wins against ranked MVFC teams, not to mention 2 more FCS OOC wins.

We need to stop settling for Patty V type attitude of rationalizing why we shouldn't be in playoffs or why MVFC got screwed yet again. Any 24 team playoff should be designed to get THE BEST 24 teams, and then seed them fairly .. period. I don't care if I'm the 24th best team ... I want in .. everyone should want in. Every playoff system except FBS Bowl system takes same approach.

8-3 in a bad conference for a team that has played no one resembling a top 25 team ... versus .. a 6-5 MVFC team who lost to FBS and played 7 top 25 teams ... no brainer decision if someone is being objective.

If I can't be THE best team, I'll take being considered one of the best .. it beats the hell out of staying home. To me, anything is false pride.

 

[cpacmel]

I Last year was the first time they let in a 6-5 team and it didn't turn out well.

WIU from 2015 isn’t happy with you Source! :evil:

http://www.goleathernecks.com/news/2015/11/24/FB_1124152320.aspx?path=football

What are the odds they let tha 6-5=out. 7-4 =in. 8-3= on the bubble for a top 8 seed. 9-2= top 5 seed.

Agreed.

 

[RollBirds2002]

I've mentioned this a few times but figured I would again. 6-5 does not get us in. Last year was the first time they let in a 6-5 team and it didn't turn out well. What are the odds they let that same 6-5 team in again? 6-5=out. 7-4 =in. 8-3= on the bubble for a top 8 seed. 9-2= top 5 seed.

One game at a time.

you have bad info.

WIU got in at 6-5 in 2015, won 1st round game before losing to us in round of 16. And last year, we got in at 6-5, and lost by 7 to the #12 on the road .. arguably would have won if not for 2 special teams miscues in Q4 that gave them 10 points and momentum swing.

This year, the MVFC is stronger/deeper than 2014 when we got 5 and dominated. According to Massey Composite of 35 polls, we have the following ranked teams: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 15, 17, 24.

If Massey Composite were THE source for playoff bids, we would have 7 teams in and 1 on bubble today. And the one bubble is only because there are usually 3-5 autobids (PFL, MEAC, NEC, Big South, Patriot) who get in even though they do not deserve a top 24 bid.

I think it is near mathematical certainty that a 4-4 MVFC team who lost 1 non-conf (usu. FBS) to go 6-5 overall will get in this year .. or at least should get in. They will have at least 4 of 5 losses to FBS and highly ranked FCS teams; and at least 2 wins against ranked MVFC teams, not to mention 2 more FCS OOC wins.

We need to stop settling for Patty V type attitude of rationalizing why we shouldn't be in playoffs or why MVFC got screwed yet again. Any 24 team playoff should be designed to get THE BEST 24 teams, and then seed them fairly .. period. I don't care if I'm the 24th best team ... I want in .. everyone should want in. Every playoff system except FBS Bowl system takes same approach.

8-3 in a bad conference for a team that has played no one resembling a top 25 team ... versus .. a 6-5 MVFC team who lost to FBS and played 7 top 25 teams ... no brainer decision if someone is being objective.

If I can't be THE best team, I'll take being considered one of the best .. it beats the hell out of staying home. To me, anything is false pride.

6-5 might get UNI or YSU in this year, but I feel like the Birds squandering the opportunity last year will keep them out this year if they're 6-5. Hopefully it is a moot point and they get 7 wins and are almost certainly a lock.

Also, did they do away with the GPI? I thought that was more the benchmark that the NCAA selection committee uses (LOOSELY in 2011) for selecting at large bids.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

I've mentioned this a few times but figured I would again. 6-5 does not get us in. Last year was the first time they let in a 6-5 team and it didn't turn out well. What are the odds they let that same 6-5 team in again? 6-5=out. 7-4 =in. 8-3= on the bubble for a top 8 seed. 9-2= top 5 seed.

One game at a time.

you have bad info.

WIU got in at 6-5 in 2015, won 1st round game before losing to us in round of 16. And last year, we got in at 6-5, and lost by 7 to the #12 on the road .. arguably would have won if not for 2 special teams miscues in Q4 that gave them 10 points and momentum swing.

This year, the MVFC is stronger/deeper than 2014 when we got 5 and dominated. According to Massey Composite of 35 polls, we have the following ranked teams: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 15, 17, 24.

If Massey Composite were THE source for playoff bids, we would have 7 teams in and 1 on bubble today. And the one bubble is only because there are usually 3-5 autobids (PFL, MEAC, NEC, Big South, Patriot) who get in even though they do not deserve a top 24 bid.

I think it is near mathematical certainty that a 4-4 MVFC team who lost 1 non-conf (usu. FBS) to go 6-5 overall will get in this year .. or at least should get in. They will have at least 4 of 5 losses to FBS and highly ranked FCS teams; and at least 2 wins against ranked MVFC teams, not to mention 2 more FCS OOC wins.

We need to stop settling for Patty V type attitude of rationalizing why we shouldn't be in playoffs or why MVFC got screwed yet again. Any 24 team playoff should be designed to get THE BEST 24 teams, and then seed them fairly .. period. I don't care if I'm the 24th best team ... I want in .. everyone should want in. Every playoff system except FBS Bowl system takes same approach.

8-3 in a bad conference for a team that has played no one resembling a top 25 team ... versus .. a 6-5 MVFC team who lost to FBS and played 7 top 25 teams ... no brainer decision if someone is being objective.

If I can't be THE best team, I'll take being considered one of the best .. it beats the hell out of staying home. To me, anything is false pride.

6-5 might get UNI or YSU in this year, but I feel like the Birds squandering the opportunity last year will keep them out this year if they're 6-5. Hopefully it is a moot point and they get 7 wins and are almost certainly a lock.

Also, did they do away with the GPI? I thought that was more the benchmark that the NCAA selection committee uses (LOOSELY in 2011) for selecting at large bids.

I don't believe YSU gets in at 6-5 because that would either include a loss to us, also 6-5, or to one of INSU/MSU/SIU. I think UNI would also be one game short at 6-5. If you beat a P5 FBS team and finish 6-5 in the MVFC, you have a shot. If not, I think it will take 7-4. I think UNI and YSU at 6-5 could still win a couple games in the playoffs, but I don't think any of us will get a shot to do so if we get there.

 

[RollBirds2002]

I don't believe YSU gets in at 6-5 because that would either include a loss to us, also 6-5, or to one of INSU/MSU/SIU. I think UNI would also be one game short at 6-5. If you beat a P5 FBS team and finish 6-5 in the MVFC, you have a shot. If not, I think it will take 7-4. I think UNI and YSU at 6-5 could still win a couple games in the playoffs, but I don't think any of us will get a shot to do so if we get there.

Good point. I forgot about the Northwestern win last year making 6-5 sparkle a lot more. I was just focused more on "the Birds had their chance at 6-5, they blew it, someone else's turn now".