Playoff chances

[crazzymark]

According to the Reinhardt, 2 wins will be needed, I think it will take 3, need to show that ISU can beat a ranked team.

 

[Total Red]

Randy is correct. Two wins will do it. In fact one win might get us in at 7-5. Last year UNI got in at 6-5.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Randy is correct. Two wins will do it. In fact one win might get us in at 7-5. Last year UNI got in at 6-5.

Who did UNI beat last year?
If the Birds lose @ SDSU Saturday, who did they beat this year that would make them playoff worthy?

 

[TheTruth]

According to the Reinhardt, 2 wins will be needed, I think it will take 3, need to show that ISU can beat a ranked team.

2 wins will get the Redbirds in, given the trajectory of this offense there is a very good chance that doesn’t happen. Even if they get in they’re an early exit as they can’t even compete against the MVFC upper half. The excuse makers will pretend that everything is alright and blame the fans for the program’s woes..... and the problems will go unchecked.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Randy is correct. Two wins will do it. In fact one win might get us in at 7-5. Last year UNI got in at 6-5.

Who did UNI beat last year?
If the Birds lose @ SDSU Saturday, who did they beat this year that would make them playoff worthy?

Agree with both of these posts....two wins will almost certainly get the Redbirds into the playoffs but they may not be a very worthy playoff team. Thinking about some of the posts from the Uni thread and SDSU will be more than a challenge if there is not meaningful depth at the qb spot and Davis starts the game struggling. If that happens what does ISU do?

 

[Manchester Matt]

One of the solid FCS writers, Brian McLaughlin, still has us on the 8 line in his mock playoff bracket.

It’s a terrible year in FCS with teams knocking each other off. There are plenty of three and four loss teams in the picture who have lost to lesser teams than NDSU, UNI and an FBS team. Look deeper than just saying we don’t belong. Tell me who does.

And believe it or not; the SIU win is a very good win at this point.

 

[Total Red]

Who did UNI beat last year?
If the Birds lose @ SDSU Saturday, who did they beat this year that would make them playoff worthy?

In 2018 UNI beat South Dakota St. by 15. SDSU was ranked #2 at the time. UNI also lost to unranked WIU by 20 and unranked YSU by 21. Illinois State beat both WIU and YSU.

If Illinois State finishes 7-5 this year they will have a better record than UNI did last year. True, they won't have any big wins but the schedule is high in difficulty. We play in the toughest FCS conference and we played a FBS game.

Lastly, the thread is about playoff chances. I wasn't talking about who I would choose I was talking about who the playoff selection committee is going to choose. Illinois State is IN at 8-4 and it has about a 50/50 chance of being in at 7-5.

 

[redbirdfan04]

Who did UNI beat last year?
If the Birds lose @ SDSU Saturday, who did they beat this year that would make them playoff worthy?

In 2018 UNI beat South Dakota St. by 15. SDSU was ranked #2 at the time. UNI also lost to unranked WIU by 20 and unranked YSU by 21. Illinois State beat both WIU and YSU.

If Illinois State finishes 7-5 this year they will have a better record than UNI did last year. True, they won't have any big wins but the schedule is high in difficulty. We play in the toughest FCS conference and we played a FBS game.

Lastly, the thread is about playoff chances. I wasn't talking about who I would choose I was talking about who the playoff selection committee is going to choose. Illinois State is IN at 8-4 and it has about a 50/50 chance of being in at 7-5.

The bubble is very weak this year so 7-5 could get the job done, 8-4 you are in for sure. I would not be surprised to see 5 valley team in NDSU, SDSU, UNI, ISUR, SIU. The YSU VS USD is a huge game this weeknd if YSU wins out they could would take the 5th spot from ISUr. I believe if both ISUr and SIU are 7-5 SIU might get in before us due to a FBS win. Possibly a rematch as well in the first round.

 

[fourthandshort]

I agree with idea that we are a lock at 8-4 no matter what. But we are less than 50/50 chance at 7-5 .. our quality wins and losses dont look good this year compared to prior years. Prior years, we had couple upsets, but just as many impressive wins to show we could play with the big boys. This year .. we can't say that .. we can only say we didn't lose to anyone we shouldn't have. But the bubble will have a lot 7-5 teams this year .. so playing in MVFC will help out cause on surface.

 

[redbirdfan04]

At this point I think the NIU loss is actually our worst loss but because they are FBS the committee will not count that against us. I believe UNI and NDSU would have beat NIU fairly easily.

 

[JHBird]

Who did UNI beat last year?
If the Birds lose @ SDSU Saturday, who did they beat this year that would make them playoff worthy?

In 2018 UNI beat South Dakota St. by 15. SDSU was ranked #2 at the time. UNI also lost to unranked WIU by 20 and unranked YSU by 21. Illinois State beat both WIU and YSU.

If Illinois State finishes 7-5 this year they will have a better record than UNI did last year. True, they won't have any big wins but the schedule is high in difficulty. We play in the toughest FCS conference and we played a FBS game.

Lastly, the thread is about playoff chances. I wasn't talking about who I would choose I was talking about who the playoff selection committee is going to choose. Illinois State is IN at 8-4 and it has about a 50/50 chance of being in at 7-5.

The bubble is very weak this year so 7-5 could get the job done, 8-4 you are in for sure. I would not be surprised to see 5 valley team in NDSU, SDSU, UNI, ISUR, SIU. The YSU VS USD is a huge game this weeknd if YSU wins out they could would take the 5th spot from ISUr. I believe if both ISUr and SIU are 7-5 SIU might get in before us due to a FBS win. Possibly a rematch as well in the first round.

That might be the better way to think about. If we end up being fourth in the MVC we'll probably get in. However that happens. Seems like SDSU is a sure loss, so the away game at YSU will be the key to it all.

 

[Chi-bird]

8-4 and we are in. 7-5, I don’t think so. It depends on the last 2 loses. Do we compete and come up just short or do we yet again pass for 130 yards and lose by 2 or more scores?

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Honestly, if I was picking it would depend on the wins. If ISU beats MO State (1-7) but lose to SDSU (7-2) and YSU (5-4) and end up 7-5...well that is not very impressive. I don't think I would pick them for the playoffs at 7-5. At 8-4 they have to beat either SDSU or YSU and that makes for a more impressive resume. A win over SDSU on the road would be more impressive than beating YSU on the road. The SIU win is looking better but the rest of the wins are really games the Redbirds should have won against weaker opponents.
NAU is 4-5; WIU is 1-8; ISUb is 5-6; SIU is 5-4; EIU is 0-9; and Morehead State is 4-5. The teams the Redbirds have beaten are a combined 19 - 37! They have only beat one team with a winning record, SIU. They have lost to every team with a winning record with the exception of NIU (3-6 but FBS) and SIU (5-4). When you look at the opponents they have beaten it is just not a very impressive season, 6-3 or not.
I hope they get selected regardless of their record since I want to see some playoff football with ISU in it. But honestly, can anyone look at this and and feel they are a great selection at 7-5? The good teams have made crystal clear the weaknesses of this Redbird team. A win against SDSU can make a lot of that go away.

 

[J0K3R2]

So, we beat SDSU. Where do we stand? Well, that’s a fun question.

A road win over the #4 team in the country makes for a nice boost to our bye argument. Still, we don’t have a very good case made to snag a bye. The SIU win has proven to be a pretty good one, though our best after that is likely the NAU win, especially how they gave Sacramento State a run for their money.

Essentially, we’re in some pretty uncharted territory this year: in the history of the FCS playoffs, less than ten teams have ever gotten the first round bye with three losses. As I write this, however, there’s only five teams who compete in the playoffs with less than three losses (Ivy League doesn’t compete in the playoff). This virtually guarantees that some teams who deserve a seed otherwise will likely miss out.

As to what exactly our win means, well, quite a bit hinges on who wins next week’s SDSU-UNI matchup. A convincing SDSU win would likely make our case stronger; a UNI win would likely seal the deal for UNI getting a bye while knocking SDSU out of bye contention and not moving the needle much for us (if not moving it slightly down). If UNI loses either or both of their next two weeks, all bets are off on their bye potential.

Right now, it seems like the best thing we can do is win our next two games in solid if not blowout fashion, and root for more losses by teams that currently sit with records the same as ours. Fortunately, a lot of those three loss teams also have a similar “loss resume” to ours—an FBS opponent, a higher ranked FCS opponent or two. Ours, all things considered, is probably one of the better loss resumes out there, being to an FBS team and two top ten FCS teams. That said, as we all know, we’re not doing so hot in the quality wins department, but neither are the rest of the 7-3 teams.

TL;DR we need to win out, hope that UNI and SDSU both drop another game each, and hope more three loss teams become four loss teams

And here’s a good link to a Reddit post that goes over things pretty in-depth:


https://www.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments/du7mdb/fcs_playoff_picture_week_11/

 

[fourthandshort]

J0K .. nice summary .. the only aspect you missed was ZERO losses to teams below us. So in terms of cheecking the boxes that the committee

1. record .. 7-3 playing in MVFC
2. good wins .. 2, maybe 3 (NAU ?)
3. good losses .. a weak 3 due to margins, but otherwise acceptable 3 losses
4. bad wins .. 1 maybe 2 ... WIU was not a good win. EIU win by 18 is their 2nd worst FCS loss of season
5. bad losses ... big fat ZERO, which if you go back to prior 3 years, we had 2 or 3 each year historically

So working in our big favor are #'s 1 and 5; and while 2, 3, and 4 doesn't look real good, they look ok .. so no real negatives, despite how mediocre we played most games. The schedule really fell our way this year, weaker overall than usual in terms of quality of depth. And since we did great job avoiding our usual 2 or 3 upsets, we are in much better position this year than any of the last 3 season.

Would love to get Edgar back in mix against MoST, even if it is just part time. I'm sure Spack reminded the team that losses to MoST and/or ISUb were the reason we did not make playoffs last year ... so let's take care of business against MoST.

Keep working on pass game .. Davis threw some real nice balls yesterday, but also made some boneheaded decisions which put us into funk for middle 2 qtrs. I refuse to concede settling for run, it will not help us win big games against good defenses. Yesterday, we needed 4 TOs to win that game. We have enough talent to pass the ball, we mainly lack confidence and experience .. so let's keep developing it and work thru our problems. As for yesterday, we especially need to work on Davis decision-making in pocket .. he looked like the true FR QB out there on a few plays yesterday .. it's like he sometimes completely forgets the situation (mainly down & distance, field position, clock mangement, score of game, etc) when he gets flushed . He has to know, when the play is over and he's outside the pocket .. damage control basics based on game/play situation ... dump the ball out of bounds. He also has to be able to get more comfortable stepping up in pocket once in a whide, depending on where the pressure is coming from. His immediate impulse is to back up and then try to roll out, putting play more in jeopardy.

The safety was on coaches more than Davis .. you put him deep in end zone with 1 receiver option ??? I don't mind throwing there on 1st down given their run defense, but give him couple options if nothing else but to be able to check down quickly or throw it out of reach to one of the options .... he was stuck in back of end zone !!!

Great day for our Redbirds ... still a work in progress on offense, but that was a very good team we beat, with our without their starting QB.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

If we win out, we’ll be a top 8 seed for sure. I don’t really care why seed that is, as long as it’s opposite NDSU. That’s our best chance to get to Frisco again. Then, you never know what can happen.

If we lose 1, we’ll have a bad/mediocre loss and likely move to hosting a home playoff game the weekend of Thanksgiving. Hello no students and a crowd of 4,500.

If we lose both, well...let’s not have that. We’d still be ranked but the perfect excuse to keep us out. Could we still make it as like the last team in? Yes. But let’s not chance that.

Beat MoST and I believe we’d be guaranteed to host our first playoff game.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

A very big win yesterday and that changes the whole outlook I think. If the team stays healthy and gets Edgar back, I can see them winning the next two games and then the only question is a first-round bye or not. I think at 9-3 they get the first-round bye with the win yesterday. The Jacks have a good team but having to go the rest of the season with a true Freshman at QB will not help their cause. I thought he played really well for most of the game but the interception and fumble really hurt the Jacks. A really big win and now the team has to get back to business and not slip up against Mo State.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Looks like YSU has called it a season like they normally do at this time of the year.

Fully expecting ISU to win out and be a seed at 9-3.

What’s fascinating is that SDSU could lose next week to UNI and probably miss being a seed. Crazy how fast things change.

 

[fourthandshort]

YSU is almost always a top 15 team for first half of season. but the MVFC grind and war of attrition seems to usually get the best of them because their roster is never very deep. On AGS, most of their critics rip Pelini for many reasons, but the most consistent is how bad he is at recruiting HS players. Relies heavily on transfers and a few studs, and he apparently knows how to coach when he's nto blowing a gasket over something stupid. Make no mistake, they are usually good, but just as often will wear down my last third of season. So yes, we are lucky to get them game 12 on road instead of say game 5. Plus Spack seems to prepare well for YSU, sort of like SDSU.

recall 2017 .. we beat YSU at their place 35-0 for their homecoming .. they were arguably a top 10 or 15 team at that point. But they had just lost 3 straight games by combined margin of 15 to NDSU, SDSU, and UNI .. and we made them look like a last place team that day. They were pretty beat up at that point, and we went in there to beat them up some more. That was game a run strategy made complete sense .. they were already physically beat up.

 

[MadBird]

A few NCAA stats I was looking at:

Fenlason is tied for 6th in FCS for FG % (.857).

J Rob #6 in rushing TD's, #7 in rushing yards, #8 rushing yards per game.

ISU #1 in the country in red zone defense - only allowed scores .545 of the time, #3 in red zone offense scoring .935 of the time.

ISU #14 in Total Defense - yards per game.

ISU #104 out of 124 in passing efficiency.