Playoff chances

[Chi-bird]

UNI vs SDSU will answer a lot of questions this week.

We currently sit #8 in the coaches poll:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-coaches-poll

I said SDSU@UNI earlier, but it's the other way around. Jacks cannot afford to lose two in a row at home. UNI is going to attack them the same way they did against us. Then they have to play at instate rival USD a week later. USD is suddenly looking pretty good.

Out of curiosity, what's SIU gotta do before we can start calling that a quality win?

If SIU beats WIU, but get throttled to NDSU, then it's an average win at best, I'm afraid. SIU didn't have to play UNI this year, so they lucked out in that sense. But going 5-3 in the Valley this year, when those wins are against some teams that aren't doing so hot, is just meh. It would be one thing if they took care of business in the non-con, but they beat a bad UMASS team and an average UT Martin team, while losing 2 others to decent teams. Just not enough noise. .

 

[Chi-bird]

I looked at Accuweather and the forecast for next Saturday is a high of 42 degrees and a low of 33. Partly sunny but dry. That is pretty good football weather for mid-October in central Illinois. Also very good weather for the players. I would love to be there myself but that is a little too far.

Even better for mid-November.

was great weather with the game against UNI...another crowd of 2000, ugh....and all the season ticket holders out eating lunch on vets pkwy. sad

Be the change you wish to see in our fanbase.

 

[cpacmel]

Say what you want about UMASS. But they are still FBS. Those wins mean more to the committee. That's always been the case. It's like 1.5 wins really. Sometimes 2.0 wins if its a more known team. Also don't overlook the fact that SIU scheduled 2 FBS games this season.

A good follow for FCS playoffs is the Bison guy, Dom Izzo. He has a good idea on how things normally shake down.

https://twitter.com/DomIzzoWDAY

 

[ISU85]

Here are the two main FCS Bracketology sites.

First, College Sports Madness that was listed above makes their projections including future results predicted when coming up with their bracket. The way I see this is that they believe UNI will beat SDSU this week. Which would bump them from the top 8.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

Here is another site, No Bowls. They make their weekly updates as if the season ended today. They still have SDSU hanging on to an 8 seed after their loss on Saturday.

http://www.nobowls.com

I like how the first bracket has the top four MVFC teams in different quads.

 

[J0K3R2]

Out of curiosity, what's SIU gotta do before we can start calling that a quality win?

IMO, it should already be one, given that they've overperformed expectations this season, but realistically...it'll probably mean we're gonna have to see them crack the top 25, which I don't know that they'll be able to do. It's also probably our second-best win in terms of quality after SDSU; they have an FBS win (over UMass), an FBS loss (@Arkansas State), and three FCS losses (@ current #15 SEMO, vs. your Illinois State Redbirds, and @ current #8 SDSU). The FBS win helps even if it's just UMass, and the three FCS losses are all what I'd consider fairly strong losses, if there is such a thing. If you remove the FBS loss, that's a 6-3 win/loss record in the eyes of the committee. Their FCS wins haven't been anything special, and cleaning up vs. Western probably won't move the needle there. If they *somehow* knocked off NDSU, that would instantly seal them as a playoff team and a quality win, but those are ungodly long odds.

 

[Birdswin]

If SIU does not look past WIU - which could happen - then they may find a way into the first round of the playoffs at 7-5 - like at the Pioneer Champion, similar to what happened to WIU several years ago.

 

[Chi-bird]

Say what you want about UMASS. But they are still FBS. Those wins mean more to the committee. That's always been the case. It's like 1.5 wins really. Sometimes 2.0 wins if its a more known team. Also don't overlook the fact that SIU scheduled 2 FBS games this season.

A good follow for FCS playoffs is the Bison guy, Dom Izzo. He has a good idea on how things normally shake down.

https://twitter.com/DomIzzoWDAY

With two games left, they are on pace to set the record for most points given up in a season and they have their two toughest games in Northwestern and BYU.

 

[cpacmel]

Say what you want about UMASS. But they are still FBS. Those wins mean more to the committee. That's always been the case. It's like 1.5 wins really. Sometimes 2.0 wins if its a more known team. Also don't overlook the fact that SIU scheduled 2 FBS games this season.

A good follow for FCS playoffs is the Bison guy, Dom Izzo. He has a good idea on how things normally shake down.

https://twitter.com/DomIzzoWDAY

With two games left, they are on pace to set the record for most points given up in a season and they have their two toughest games in Northwestern and BYU.

I understand but still fbs. Still give out 85 scholarships.

Criteria for selections....record vs fbs is listed

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/football-championship-subdivision-selections-101-selections

 

[fourthandshort]

Say what you want about UMASS. But they are still FBS. Those wins mean more to the committee. That's always been the case. It's like 1.5 wins really. Sometimes 2.0 wins if its a more known team. Also don't overlook the fact that SIU scheduled 2 FBS games this season.

A good follow for FCS playoffs is the Bison guy, Dom Izzo. He has a good idea on how things normally shake down.

https://twitter.com/DomIzzoWDAY

With two games left, they are on pace to set the record for most points given up in a season and they have their two toughest games in Northwestern and BYU.

I understand but still fbs. Still give out 85 scholarships.

Criteria for selections....record vs fbs is listed

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/football-championship-subdivision-selections-101-selections

Hey Mel ... NCAA also lists record and SOS as their first and second criteria. And UMass is possibly one of the worst FBS teams in a while. Massey ranks their SOS last in FBS, and they are losing by 35 points per game against that schedule. It will help SIU in that they won by 25, but UMass would finish near bottom of MVFC.

 

[StLRedbird]

SIU in the rankings...

STATS 29
FCS Coaches 27
AGS 25
Massey Composite 18

So the subjective polls haven't caught up to the objective ones. Both bracketology sites are projecting them as an at-large bid in the tournament.

 

[fourthandshort]

SIU in the rankings...

STATS 29
FCS Coaches 27
AGS 25
Massey Composite 18

So the subjective polls haven't caught up to the objective ones. Both bracketology sites are projecting them as an at-large bid in the tournament.

they've got many quality wins and losses compared to most teams

their SOS ranks 23rd in FCS and they have yet to play NDSU (and WIU), so it will go up.

in their 6 wins, they are winning by over 20 points per game

in their 4 losses, 1 is to 5-4 G5 team, 3 are to ranked FCS teams ... 2 in top 8, and 1 around 15

Their only real negatives are the 4 losses by average of 16 points per game. Our 3 losses are by slightly worse margins. And we have a better win (SDSU).

Lots of 3 and 4 loss teams in top 20-25 .. they played 2 FBS. I think Massey Composite has it about right.

 

[fourthandshort]

Just noticed this in standings of MVFC vs All Games ... we're currently tied for 3rd in MVFC with the 2 teams we beat, and tied for 2nd in overall record (i.e. playoff consideration). We currently win any tie breaker over SDSU and SIU, and lose any tie breaker with UNI .... uh ... ahem ... and NDSU.

Team MVFC ALL
NDSU 6-0 10-0 ..
UNI 5-1 7-3 .. at SDSU, and WIU .. I can see 2-0 or 1-1
ISUr 4-2 7-3 .. MoST and at YSU .. I can see 2-0
SDSU 4-2 7-3 .. UNI and at USD .. I can 2-0 or 1-1
SIU 4-2 6-4 .. at WIU and NDSU .. I can see 1-1
USD 3-3 4-6 .. at NDSU and SDSU .. I can see 0-2 or maybe 1-1
YSU 1-5 5-5 .. at ISUb and ISUr .. I can see 0-2 or 1-1
ISUb 1-5 3-7 .. YSU and at MoST .. I can see 2-0 or 1-1
MoST 1-5 1-8 .. at ISUr and ISUb .. I can see 0-2
WIU 1-5 1-9 .. SIU and at UNI .. I can see 0-2

The best remaining game is UNI at SDSU this week .. that game is best matchup and could change the above landscape if SDSU wins.

But if UNI beats SDSU, this basically tells me 1st thru 6th is likely to stay as is. And that there is decent chance that YSU, MoST, and WIU finish tied for last ... 8/9/10. Stunning that YSU started 4-0 with some nice margins in OOC.

On the other hand ...... anything can happen on anygivensaturday. So let's show up Saturday !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[ISUBU]

Stunning that YSU started 4-0 with some nice margins in OOC.

On the other hand ...... anything can happen on anygivensaturday. So let's show up Saturday !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[/quote]

YSU played a weak out of conference schedule. Then they had the MVFC wake up call.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

Anybody concerned that we get 4 seeds (very unlikely) and get whitewashed in the second round?
I mean, it’s obvious that MVFC isn’t as dominant as we’ve been in recent years, and outside of JMU and NDSU, it’s pretty much “any given Saturday” out there for everyone.
Statistically, we shouldn’t have beaten SDSU, even without Gibbs. So, anything seems like it could happen.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Stunning that YSU started 4-0 with some nice margins in OOC.

On the other hand ...... anything can happen on anygivensaturday. So let's show up Saturday !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YSU played a weak out of conference schedule. Then they had the MVFC wake up call.
[/quote]

The Penguins had a really weak out of conference schedule. Their first four games were against Samford University; Howard University; Duquense University and Robert Morris University.
Samford is 4-6; Howard is 1-9; Duquense is 6-3 and Robert Morris is 6-4. The first four opponents are a combined 17- 22 so far this season. Duqense and Robert Morris have winning records but they play in the Northeast Conference which is not one of the tougher FCS football conferences in the country. With the exception of Samford, all of those games were played at home for the Penguins as well. I think that 4-0 record to open the season was very misleading if you only looked at the wins and losses.
They end the season with ISUb on the road and the Redbirds at home. If I were a betting man, I would put money on the Penguins losing both those last two games to go 5-7 overall and 1-7 in the MVFC.
The end of the season is set up for the Redbirds to grab a top 8 seed if they play their game and don't lose focus. I think they take both games but they will not be easy. Both MOState and YSU are having bad seasons and it would be a big deal to wreck the Redbirds push for a playoff spot. Figure both teams will put forth a maximum effort against the Redbirds. Buckle up your chinstraps and finish the season strong! Go Redbirds! (I am predicting a 9-3 finish)

 

[Sanantoniobird]

I’m with you Virginia; these will be tough games. When you really have little to play for, you play much looser. Versus, everything to lose...just ask Kentucky.

 

[redbirdfan04]

I’m with you Virginia; these will be tough games. When you really have little to play for, you play much looser. Versus, everything to lose...just ask Kentucky.

I dont think a early non con basketball game vs end of the season football game are exactly the same. I understand what you are getting at and agree these will not be easy games. No game in the Valley is easy. My hope is YSU loses again this week and they let a bunch of seniors play because they have nothing to play for.

 

[StLRedbird]

Anybody concerned that we get 4 seeds (very unlikely) and get whitewashed in the second round?
I mean, it’s obvious that MVFC isn’t as dominant as we’ve been in recent years, and outside of JMU and NDSU, it’s pretty much “any given Saturday” out there for everyone.
Statistically, we shouldn’t have beaten SDSU, even without Gibbs. So, anything seems like it could happen.

I don’t think there’s any chance of 4 seeds for the Valley. 3 is unlikely, IMO. If UNI wins Sat, I think we’re looking at a first round home game if we win out and bid enough to get it

 

[cpacmel]

Anybody concerned that we get 4 seeds (very unlikely) and get whitewashed in the second round?
I mean, it’s obvious that MVFC isn’t as dominant as we’ve been in recent years, and outside of JMU and NDSU, it’s pretty much “any given Saturday” out there for everyone.
Statistically, we shouldn’t have beaten SDSU, even without Gibbs. So, anything seems like it could happen.

I don’t think there’s any chance of 4 seeds for the Valley. 3 is unlikely, IMO. If UNI wins Sat, I think we’re looking at a first round home game if we win out and bid enough to get it

Really? Because I’m thinking 3 is very likely.

 

[fourthandshort]

Anybody concerned that we get 4 seeds (very unlikely) and get whitewashed in the second round?
I mean, it’s obvious that MVFC isn’t as dominant as we’ve been in recent years, and outside of JMU and NDSU, it’s pretty much “any given Saturday” out there for everyone.
Statistically, we shouldn’t have beaten SDSU, even without Gibbs. So, anything seems like it could happen.

Disagree... we played them even or better.

Our defense outplayed their defense.. especially considering their offense is considered much better than our offense .. even with a backup QB. We stuffed their vaunted run game better than any other team they played. We contained their pass game. And also stopped all of their trick plays.

Our offense played them even in pass game. And we eventually wore them down with our run game and outplayed them. Both defense are considered elite but given our offense is not considered elite and their defense is .. that was a very solid day for our offense.

From there, we forced more turnovers by 4 to 1 and that is reason we were able to seal the game. Weve been on the wrong end of that stat too many times the last 2 years ... so I will take it for once.

So I think we outplayed them and on their own field to boot. Sure they had to go to backup QB .. but that didn't seem to narrow their playbook much at all.