Playoff chances

[Sanantoniobird]

Anybody concerned that we get 4 seeds (very unlikely) and get whitewashed in the second round?
I mean, it’s obvious that MVFC isn’t as dominant as we’ve been in recent years, and outside of JMU and NDSU, it’s pretty much “any given Saturday” out there for everyone.
Statistically, we shouldn’t have beaten SDSU, even without Gibbs. So, anything seems like it could happen.

Disagree... we played them even or better.

Our defense outplayed their defense.. especially considering their offense is considered much better than our offense .. even with a backup QB. We stuffed their vaunted run game better than any other team they played. We contained their pass game. And also stopped all of their trick plays.

Our offense played them even in pass game. And we eventually wore them down with our run game and outplayed them. Both defense are considered elite but given our offense is not considered elite and their defense is .. that was a very solid day for our offense.

From there, we forced more turnovers by 4 to 1 and that is reason we were able to seal the game. Weve been on the wrong end of that stat too many times the last 2 years ... so I will take it for once.

So I think we outplayed them and on their own field to boot. Sure they had to go to backup QB .. but that didn't seem to narrow their playbook much at all.

Thanks for your response fourth, however I meant coming into the game. There is no question that we beat them on the field. They have played without Gibbs before, just didn’t think it’d be that much of a difference.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

Anybody concerned that we get 4 seeds (very unlikely) and get whitewashed in the second round?
I mean, it’s obvious that MVFC isn’t as dominant as we’ve been in recent years, and outside of JMU and NDSU, it’s pretty much “any given Saturday” out there for everyone.
Statistically, we shouldn’t have beaten SDSU, even without Gibbs. So, anything seems like it could happen.

I don’t think there’s any chance of 4 seeds for the Valley. 3 is unlikely, IMO. If UNI wins Sat, I think we’re looking at a first round home game if we win out and bid enough to get it

3 is so likely, if we win out, SDSU wins Saturday and NDSU does NDSU. I still think it will be tough for the committee, but they will figure 3 seeds for the MVFC. Besides, this is in no way unprecedented, as Big Sky has 3 last year.

 

[fourthandshort]

Anybody concerned that we get 4 seeds (very unlikely) and get whitewashed in the second round?
I mean, it’s obvious that MVFC isn’t as dominant as we’ve been in recent years, and outside of JMU and NDSU, it’s pretty much “any given Saturday” out there for everyone.
Statistically, we shouldn’t have beaten SDSU, even without Gibbs. So, anything seems like it could happen.

Disagree... we played them even or better.

Our defense outplayed their defense.. especially considering their offense is considered much better than our offense .. even with a backup QB. We stuffed their vaunted run game better than any other team they played. We contained their pass game. And also stopped all of their trick plays.

Our offense played them even in pass game. And we eventually wore them down with our run game and outplayed them. Both defense are considered elite but given our offense is not considered elite and their defense is .. that was a very solid day for our offense.

From there, we forced more turnovers by 4 to 1 and that is reason we were able to seal the game. Weve been on the wrong end of that stat too many times the last 2 years ... so I will take it for once.

So I think we outplayed them and on their own field to boot. Sure they had to go to backup QB .. but that didn't seem to narrow their playbook much at all.

Thanks for your response fourth, however I meant coming into the game. There is no question that we beat them on the field. They have played without Gibbs before, just didn’t think it’d be that much of a difference.

now understand what you meant

 

[StLRedbird]

Anybody concerned that we get 4 seeds (very unlikely) and get whitewashed in the second round?
I mean, it’s obvious that MVFC isn’t as dominant as we’ve been in recent years, and outside of JMU and NDSU, it’s pretty much “any given Saturday” out there for everyone.
Statistically, we shouldn’t have beaten SDSU, even without Gibbs. So, anything seems like it could happen.

I don’t think there’s any chance of 4 seeds for the Valley. 3 is unlikely, IMO. If UNI wins Sat, I think we’re looking at a first round home game if we win out and bid enough to get it

Really? Because I’m thinking 3 is very likely.

I don't have a lot of faith in the selection committee. Even in what most would consider a down year in the Valley, Sagarin still has it rated as the #1 FCS conference. I hope you're right.

 

[TIMMY]

I don’t think there’s any chance of 4 seeds for the Valley. 3 is unlikely, IMO. If UNI wins Sat, I think we’re looking at a first round home game if we win out and bid enough to get it

Really? Because I’m thinking 3 is very likely.

I don't have a lot of faith in the selection committee. Even in what most would consider a down year in the Valley, Sagarin still has it rated as the #1 FCS conference. I hope you're right.

I'm getting ready to blame Patti V.

 

[fourthandshort]

Really? Because I’m thinking 3 is very likely.

I don't have a lot of faith in the selection committee. Even in what most would consider a down year in the Valley, Sagarin still has it rated as the #1 FCS conference. I hope you're right.

I'm getting ready to blame Patti V.

 

[fourthandshort]

I don’t think there’s any chance of 4 seeds for the Valley. 3 is unlikely, IMO. If UNI wins Sat, I think we’re looking at a first round home game if we win out and bid enough to get it

Really? Because I’m thinking 3 is very likely.

I don't have a lot of faith in the selection committee. Even in what most would consider a down year in the Valley, Sagarin still has it rated as the #1 FCS conference. I hope you're right.

I think it's really just the lower half or third that is unusually weak this year ni MVFC. The upper 4 or 5 that would typically get playoff bids are still strong .. though SIU is certainly on bubble as of today.

As for top 8 seeds, I think it mostly comes down to SDSU vs UNI ... if SDSU wins a close game and finished 9-3, they will be top 4 or 5. If UNI loses a close game to SDSU and finished 8-4, they will have 3 losses against top 4 teams, with 4th loss against a good P5 FBS team .. so they will still be considered possible top 8 seed. And if we win out, we will probably be a top 8 seed. But all 4 top 8 seeds ... I doubt it and I still think in that scenario, we're the odd man out when looking at entire resume.

As for Colonial, they are already skitrish after last season when they got unprecedented 6 teams and crapped the bed. JMU is lock, biut no one else really in hunt since UNH's myterious 10th ranking from committee before getting destroyed by JMU .. it was a mystery to all on AGS before JMU game.

Big Sky also has 4 in the hunt for top 8 seed Weber St, Sac St, then the two Montanas .. Mont St being the 4th best Big Sky team as of this week.

 

[StLRedbird]

I think it's really just the lower half or third that is unusually weak this year ni MVFC. The upper 4 or 5 that would typically get playoff bids are still strong .. though SIU is certainly on bubble as of today.

As for top 8 seeds, I think it mostly comes down to SDSU vs UNI ... if SDSU wins a close game and finished 9-3, they will be top 4 or 5. If UNI loses a close game to SDSU and finished 8-4, they will have 3 losses against top 4 teams, with 4th loss against a good P5 FBS team .. so they will still be considered possible top 8 seed. And if we win out, we will probably be a top 8 seed. But all 4 top 8 seeds ... I doubt it and I still think in that scenario, we're the odd man out when looking at entire resume.

As for Colonial, they are already skitrish after last season when they got unprecedented 6 teams and crapped the bed. JMU is lock, biut no one else really in hunt since UNH's myterious 10th ranking from committee before getting destroyed by JMU .. it was a mystery to all on AGS before JMU game.

Big Sky also has 4 in the hunt for top 8 seed Weber St, Sac St, then the two Montanas .. Mont St being the 4th best Big Sky team as of this week.

I think it shakes out like this...

UNI wins...
MVFC1 NDSU
MVFC2 UNI
MVFC3 ISU
MVFC4 SDSU
MVFC5 SIU

SDSU wins...
MVFC1 NDSU
MVFC2 ISU?
MVFC3 SDSU?
MVFC4 UNI
MVFC5 SIU

Regardless of outcome, SDSU still has to go to USD to play intrastate rival. Who know what happens there. SDSU would argue they're #2 in the second scenario.

 

[Birdswin]

Who would SDSU argue with?? The media?? The intangible "them"?

 

[Sanantoniobird]

I think it shakes out like this...

UNI wins...
MVFC1 NDSU
MVFC2 UNI
MVFC3 ISU
MVFC4 SDSU
MVFC5 SIU

SDSU wins...
MVFC1 NDSU
MVFC2 ISU?
MVFC3 SDSU?
MVFC4 UNI
MVFC5 SIU

Regardless of outcome, SDSU still has to go to USD to play intrastate rival. Who know what happens there. SDSU would argue they're #2 in the second scenario.

I like the scenario where SDSU wins. It would be difficult (but not impossible) to argue a seed for ISU at that point, granted we win out.

 

[fourthandshort]

if its toss up between a 9-3 ISUr and our choices are either a) 8-4 SDSU or b) 8-4 UNI .. I'd rather we were up against an 8-4 SDSU. To me, an 8-4 UNI has a better case over us than an 8-4 SDSU ... UNI beat us and played a tougher OOC schedule than us and SDSU.

But keep an eye on 7-3 Montana St ... they have 2 tough games left, so will likely split those .. in which case, they wont sneak into top 8. But if they win out, they will be 9-3 against a slightly tougher SOS than us, and more decisive wins than us.

Furman is supposedly in the hunt, but I don;t quite get that one .. Southern is way down this year and best they can finish is 8-3 in D-I games .. their SOS is pretty weak.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

if its toss up between a 9-3 ISUr and our choices are either a) 8-4 SDSU or b) 8-4 UNI .. I'd rather we were up against an 8-4 SDSU. To me, an 8-4 UNI has a better case over us than an 8-4 SDSU ... UNI beat us and played a tougher OOC schedule than us and SDSU.

But keep an eye on 7-3 Montana St ... they have 2 tough games left, so will likely split those .. in which case, they wont sneak into top 8. But if they win out, they will be 9-3 against a slightly tougher SOS than us, and more decisive wins than us.

Furman is supposedly in the hunt, but I don;t quite get that one .. Southern is way down this year and best they can finish is 8-3 in D-I games .. their SOS is pretty weak.

That's what you get when you play 2 FBS teams down to the wire. Against the FCS, outside of Citadel, they beat people like they stole somethin'. People will take notice of that.

 

[ISUBU]

if its toss up between a 9-3 ISUr and our choices are either a) 8-4 SDSU or b) 8-4 UNI .. I'd rather we were up against an 8-4 SDSU. To me, an 8-4 UNI has a better case over us than an 8-4 SDSU ... UNI beat us and played a tougher OOC schedule than us and SDSU.

But keep an eye on 7-3 Montana St ... they have 2 tough games left, so will likely split those .. in which case, they wont sneak into top 8. But if they win out, they will be 9-3 against a slightly tougher SOS than us, and more decisive wins than us.

Furman is supposedly in the hunt, but I don;t quite get that one .. Southern is way down this year and best they can finish is 8-3 in D-I games .. their SOS is pretty weak.

Montana plays Weber St and Montana State. Two of those will likely be seeds, but not three. One would be knocked back.

I think Villanova could sneak in to the seeds. They have a history, plus the geographical and conference support of the east coast and CAA. That's how New Hampshire was in the early list, and how they have consistently been ranked or in the field even in down years.

Of course it all matters how things shake out today and next week.

 

[TIMMY]

It's like a 3 team round robin. If UNI wins It finishes
UNI 2-0
ISU 1-1
SDSU 0-2 and we are the 3rd MVFC seed
If SDSU wins it's:
ISU 1-1
UNI 1-1
SDSU 1-1 and it's bid war. We lose.

 

[fourthandshort]

It's like a 3 team round robin. If UNI wins It finishes
UNI 2-0
ISU 1-1
SDSU 0-2 and we are the 3rd MVFC seed
If SDSU wins it's:
ISU 1-1
UNI 1-1
SDSU 1-1 and it's bid war. We lose.

well outlined, i think we really want UNI to win.

And maybe I'm not cynical enought ( ), but I would hope the sealed bids have zero impact on seeds. They should only be reviewed after the seeds and all other bids are selected to figure out, who gets to host playin games.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

It's like a 3 team round robin. If UNI wins It finishes
UNI 2-0
ISU 1-1
SDSU 0-2 and we are the 3rd MVFC seed
If SDSU wins it's:
ISU 1-1
UNI 1-1
SDSU 1-1 and it's bid war. We lose.

well outlined, i think we really want UNI to win.

And maybe I'm not cynical enought ( ), but I would hope the sealed bids have zero impact on seeds. They should only be reviewed after the seeds and all other bids are selected to figure out, who gets to host playin games.

Well, the UNI v SDSU game is on ESPN+ two hours after the Redbirds kickoff. If the Birds win today I will be switching to the other game to see if UNI can put the Jackbunnies away.

 

[fourthandshort]

furman lost, so theyre out of top 8 seed derby

other game to follow right now is Mont St at UC Davis .. UCD is up 10-7 with 7 mins left in Q2. We want UCD to push 7-3 Mont St off the top 8 bubble. If they lose and we beat YSU.

UNH lost again, so their joke of a top 10 ranking by committee is looking stupider every week.

Villanova won and is 8-3, so they could be sneaking into top 8 picture.

 

[fourthandshort]

Montana St beat UCD 27-17 .. so they are 8-3 and host 9-2 Montana next week.

9-2 Montana beat 8-3 Weber St today ... Weber St has 2 quality FBS losses.

But Furman is out of top 8 picture with loss today. But 8-3 Villanova might be in the picture now too .. but they didn't play an FBS game.

 

[MadBird]

Bracketology from footballscoop.com:

https://footballscoop.com/news/everything-thats-on-the-line-in-the-final-weekend-of-the-fcs-season/

SIU in, along with the ranked MVFC teams, 5 altogether. Nobody on the bubble.

Big Sky gets 5, with North Dakota in, and E.Washington on the bubble. So maybe 6.

 

[Redbird28]

Here's another projected bracket. I liked it the first time when it had all the MVFC teams spread out. I hate it this time with 3 of us set to cannibalize each other down to 1 team. Here's hoping it doesn't end up looking like this at all.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology