QB Competition update

[Hamdonger]

Well smoke my holies. Congrats kid. Feel bad for Kolbe but he'll be ready. To me, it's a Beathard decision.

I feel like our entire season hinges on this decision. Hope it's the right one.

 

[Hamdonger]

Wow, timing is very surprising given the reported numbers in camp and with Kolbe being the incumbent. I hope Davis showed a lot more in person and in practice, than he did statistically when they kept stats .. there is big difference between 70% and 50% completion rates. Obviously, they've considered everything they've seen .. most of which we have not seen. What's not too surprising is that they would see potential for upside that will only be proven with more reps and time. So they know what Kolbe can do with a real OC. But obvously they recognize Davis was bound to struggle some .. new system, new teammates, plus the rust factor not seeing game action at Memphis for 3 years.

So maybe they picked him now based on a projection. He's got 2 games and a bye week to get his game tuned up for Colorado St .. then a presumably easy one at MoST, before another test in game 5 against WIU ... and then the rest of the MVFC gauntlet. if they start with Kolbe against STX and EIU and he plays well, then Davis doesn't get that chance to work out the kinks before the MVFC grind starts in week 6, game 5.

So it seems to me like they are betting on Davis's upside given timing factor, knowing Kolbe will be ready if Davis doesn't pan out. Odds are, we're 3-1 no matter which QB plays the first 4 games .. so they're trying to see what Davis can become.

If I'm guessing right, then i get their logic and hope they are right about his upside .. because it is hard to believe they think Davis outplayed Kolbe in camp. As I said earlier .. big difference between 70% and 50% .. the latter kills drives.

That's a good post.

 

[Hamdonger]

Chemistry between your OC and QB might be the most valuable entity on a team. (unless you're the '85 Bears. Timmy didnt you play for them? :dance: ) Betcha Beathard and Davis have it, despite D's numbers so far.

 

[Hamdonger]

I think we see both of them in every game.

Respect your opinion and I do wonder but in the end i don't think so. Can you imagine going deep into postseason with a two-headed quarterback? I can't.

 

[fourthandshort]

I think we see both of them in every game.

Respect your opinion and I do wonder but in the end i don't think so. Can you imagine going deep into postseason with a two-headed quarterback? I can't.

If Davis is inconsistent, we may see both the first few games .. but I prefer a starter be established .. ideally no later than the WIU game .. can always change if needed of course. But if Davis proves he is the future, Spack and Beathard should be patient and have to go with him. If not, keep Kolbe in the mix .. I still believe he can help us win this year.

Time will tell.

 

[rdt99]

This surprises me. I do feel both QB;'s should play every game. They both need to be ready to step in and succeed. Game experience will provide that. GO BIRDS!

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Like a lot of you, I am surprised but if the coaches know who they want then make the decision. The Birds have solid depth in the event of injury or if Davis does not play so well. I don't care who starts...just win!

 

[MadBird]

Two thoughts . . .

I'm sure its not the most important part of the decision, but you know, some guys can handle a "demotion" better than others, and Kolbe seems like a great teammate and team leader. Some guys would go off and mope and be a "cancer" on the team if this happened to them. I suspect Kolbe will knuckle down and work harder, support Davis and the team all he can, etc. So, some coaches and some teams would maybe call for the alternative scenario laid out on this thread earlier, let Kolbe play and then work Davis in later etc. Spack says, hey Kolbe can handle this, let's let it rip and if we need Kolbe at some point, he'll be there for us.

I think I may have speculated on this when Davis first came, but I wonder if there's some connection between Beathard and Davis from Beathard's couple of years back in Tennessee?? Kid attended a Beathard camp, Beathard knows some of the coaches from Memphis or the kid's HS coaches or something? Something back there that brought the kid here in the first place and connected OC and QB before and after he arrived.

Even those of us who have been Kolbe backers know we need a spark and a better approach from last year. Kolbe maybe could do it, hopefully Davis can meet the expectations of the OC and HC.

 

[StLRedbird]

I think I may have speculated on this when Davis first came, but I wonder if there's some connection between Beathard and Davis from Beathard's couple of years back in Tennessee?? Kid attended a Beathard camp, Beathard knows some of the coaches from Memphis or the kid's HS coaches or something? Something back there that brought the kid here in the first place and connected OC and QB before and after he arrived.

This got me thinking about the connection between Beathard and Kolbe. He signed his NLI in 5/2013, was redshirted during Beathard's first year as OC in 2014. Kolbe was not recruited by Beathard. But in 2015, Beathard had enough confidence in him to have him backing up Roberson as a RS freshman. Kolbe's bio from goredbirds.com:

2015: Saw action in all 13 games for the Redbirds during his redshirt freshman season ... completed 11-of-15 passes for 147 with two touchdowns in the season-opener against Iowa ... led the Redbirds to a win in his first career start at quarterback against Northern Iowa ... went 11-for-16 for 80 yards against the Panthers ... ran for a 17-yard touchdown in the FCS quarterfinal game against Richmond in relief of starter Tre Roberson ... also served as the team's primary holder.

Sorry if 4th has already covered this ground. I was at that hot and humid Iowa game. Roberson had maybe his worst game as a Redbird. Kolbe looked like a million bucks, but I'm not sure all of Iowa's starters were still in the game. Point is, Beathard and Kolbe have an on-field history together. He must have really clicked with Davis.

 

[TIMMY]

If you're any kind of coach you just know. It's called the eye test. Who fits the offense better? Who makes the DE hold his water on read option, opening it up for your gift of running backs? Who makes the corners play off and the safety line up deeper? Who can hit the home run? Who gives you a better chance of winning? Practice stats don't play into it. Who you know has nothing to do with it. Who you like better...Nope.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

One thing we know for certain...Coach Spack was totally unhappy with what was going on with the offense the past two years and last year particularly! Virtually a whole new offensive coaching staff and nobody is in a safe zone on this team. Even if you play well everybody's job is open to a change if it gives the team the best chance to win. That is the way it should be. I am looking forward to our first look at Davis on September 1st.

 

[Chi-bird]

If you're any kind of coach you just know. It's called the eye test. Who fits the offense better? Who makes the DE hold his water on read option, opening it up for your gift of running backs? Who makes the corners play off and the safety line up deeper? Who can hit the home run? Who gives you a better chance of winning? Practice stats don't play into it. Who you know has nothing to do with it. Who you like better...Nope.

:text-+1:

 

[Birdswin]

After watching the scrimmage yesterday - it was clear to me Davis was going to get the nod - IF the coaches were fair.

Kolbe - Telling play for me - Kolbe had a receiver about 5 yards behind the defense, breaking straight down the middle of the field - over them by several yards. Terrible throw. Put a little more "air" under the ball and it is a TD.

Kolbe continues to hesitate in the pocket and take sacks - not good. Also, waits a little too long and gets passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage. Then, on 3rd and 8 - throw the wonderful 2 yard pass - no hope of a first down.


Davis - Telling play for me - in the first series - 3rd and 9 - scrambled a little in the pocket - threw a bullet, right in stride - DOWN FIELD to Schnell for catch and run of 59 yards.

Seems to make decisions quicker and has more "zip" on his passes.

Jefferson - good scrambler and solid throws. Reminds me of Kevin Glenn in stature.

 

[Chi-bird]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abfGPHILpyU

 

[Total Red]

If you're any kind of coach you just know. It's called the eye test. Who fits the offense better? Who makes the DE hold his water on read option, opening it up for your gift of running backs? Who makes the corners play off and the safety line up deeper? Who can hit the home run? Who gives you a better chance of winning? Practice stats don't play into it. Who you know has nothing to do with it. Who you like better...Nope.

Old school. Statiscal metrics and analytics are major drivers of player personnel decisions in MLB these days and they are playing an increasing role in the NFL as well. As a recent Sports Illustrated article described it some NFL teams may still rely on intuition or the eye test but they want to be more aware of when they are doing it. Am I'm going against the numbers? If so I may want to observe some more and be sure.

On the college level I was listening to an interview with a HC at another state university and he said that EVERY throw and play his QB's run in practice is charted. EVERY ONE. Not just 11 on 11 scrimmages. Every throw, every drill is charted and graded.

At some point the stats for Davis will need to catch up to his perceived potential. Clearly Beathard saw that coming and said why wait. Davis still needs more time to develop in the offense but he has the skill set Beathard requires so why put it off any longer.

If Davis is going to be the QB for the next 2 seasons then go ahead and name him the starter so he can get the bulk of the snaps with the first unit and Beathard can give him the attention he needs.

It took me about 16 hours to adjust but I'm catching up to where Beathard has been for awhile.

 

[Total Red]

I would also add that the coaches saw a lot more than the 3 scrimmages where passing stats were published.

 

[DannyCooksey]

Feel bad for Jake. He’s invested 5 years in the program and by all accounts is a model student-athlete. This is his senior year. I’m sure he’s very disappointed.

That said, the coaches know what’s best for the team and I trust them. As others have said, Beathard loves taking shots downfield and it seems Davis is better at that style.

I only hope we don’t see musical chairs. I don’t like the idea of playing both. To me, Davis starts and plays unless he gets injured. If he earned the job then he earns the right to knock off rust and bad plays which will happen early on.

I hope he’s allowed to work through those. Because it seems his upside is higher and the offenses upside is higher with him under center.

I also think Davis being an “unknown” compared to 3 years of film on Jake could be advantageous to us early. Teams might not quite know how to best defend us.

 

[TIMMY]

If you're any kind of coach you just know. It's called the eye test. Who fits the offense better? Who makes the DE hold his water on read option, opening it up for your gift of running backs? Who makes the corners play off and the safety line up deeper? Who can hit the home run? Who gives you a better chance of winning? Practice stats don't play into it. Who you know has nothing to do with it. Who you like better...Nope.

Old school. Statiscal metrics and analytics are major drivers of player personnel decisions in MLB these days and they are playing an increasing role in the NFL as well. As a recent Sports Illustrated article described it some NFL teams may still rely on intuition or the eye test but they want to be more aware of when they are doing it. Am I'm going against the numbers? If so I may want to observe some more and be sure.

On the college level I was listening to an interview with a HC at another state university and he said that EVERY throw and play his QB's run in practice is charted. EVERY ONE. Not just 11 on 11 scrimmages. Every throw, every drill is charted and graded.

At some point the stats for Davis will need to catch up to his perceived potential. Clearly Beathard saw that coming and said why wait. Davis still needs more time to develop in the offense but he has the skill set Beathard requires so why put it off any longer.

If Davis is going to be the QB for the next 2 seasons then go ahead and name him the starter so he can get the bulk of the snaps with the first unit and Beathard can give him the attention he needs.

It took me about 16 hours to adjust but I'm catching up to where Beathard has been for awhile.

I'm not that old school.
I'm sure every throw has been charted and filmed. As an observer in Wisconsin all I have is hudl. What I won't do is cherry pick stats. They're just not meaningful. Like a pithcher in baseball. Do you want to look a W-L record or quality starts? With a QB do you care about completion % or quality throws?
Maybe Jake gets another opportunity and makes the most of it. It's tough on a senior who clearly did everything he was asked. I've had to make those decisions and you don't take them lightly. But the other guy was clearly more athletic. You gotta go with that.

 

[TIMMY]

The other thing you can't put a number on is IT. Some guys just have more IT. IT wins games. Tre had IT. Lots of IT.

 

[StLRedbird]

If you're any kind of coach you just know. It's called the eye test.

This sort of language is likely to get the basketball fans around here all riled up.