QB Competition update

[ISUBU]

This morning's Pantagraph updates us on the QB race.
https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/...cle_593dcff2-3d54-5adc-b66d-884f54045c47.html
Both should be ready to play.

 

[Total Red]

The QB race is still too close to call and it looks like the competition will continue into the first game.
The case for Davis reads like this. His arm is livelier and he's a better scrambler. He's more apt to try to make a big play and when it goes well you're convinced that you are seeing a truly exceptional QB.
The case for Kolbe goes like this. He's a veteran and it shows. He's more apt to throw underneath for the easy completion. He's been rewarded with a higher completion pct. and fewer interceptions.

With Davis you're tempted to say that he has a higher ceiling. If he's given more time to learn the offense and kick off the rust he'll make even more big plays and fewer busts.

With Kolbe you want to claim that he's exactly what this team needs now. If the offense was weak you might want a "go for broke" QB that can ignite the offense with big plays but this offense isn't weak. It's strong. The real star of the offense is the rushing attack. You want a QB that completes passes and keeps drives alive. You want drives that include 4 or more rushing attempts by Robinson & Smith. When Robinson/Smith carry multiple times per drive you've got a good chance that they'll break a tackle for a long run. Three and outs where our RB's only get 1 or 2 touches will be kryptonite.

Right now I'd say the stronger argument is with Kolbe and it was his job to lose in the first place but there's more time. We still have a couple more weeks of practice and an opener that allows for experimentation and evaluation. There's a lot riding on this and competition is a good thing. Let's take our time and make the right choice.

Regardless of who wins it will be good to have the other as a cut above backup. We had one game each of the last two seasons that Kolbe did not start. Tristan Smith started at Indiana State in 2016 and Malachi Broadnax started at South Dakota St. in 2017. Both played ok but only ok and both games were lost by 3 pts. If we had a better backup both games could have been won. It's good to have depth.

 

[Chi-bird]

I have to think that whoever is under center at the start of the 3rd quarter vs. Colorado State will be our QB for the rest of the year.

 

[fourthandshort]

Based on stats reported for reports 4, 5, 6 .. here is side by side of passing stats only:

Kolbe

4. 13-18 for 132 yards
5. 12-17 for 121 yards
6. 15-21 for 148 yards
Total. 40-56 for 401 yards, 71% completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt


Davis

4. 5-12 for 98 yards
5. 9-15 for 109 yards
6. 9-21 for 86 yards
Total. 23-48 for 293 yards, 48% completion rate and 6.1 yards per attempt

So Kolbe has certainly out-passed Davis so far when they were counting stats. Written reports suggest Davis has shown more running skills. But reports also indicate Davis has more picks.

At this point, I have to believe Kolbe has done enough to retain his starting position, but there is more camp to be played. But given our run game and OL, my money is still on Kolbe.

That said, I remain open minded until game 5 in MVFC home opener against WIU.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

Based on stats reported for reports 4, 5, 6 .. here is side by side of passing stats only:

Kolbe

4. 13-18 for 132 yards
5. 12-17 for 121 yards
6. 15-21 for 148 yards
Total. 40-56 for 401 yards, 71% completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt


Davis

4. 5-12 for 98 yards
5. 9-15 for 109 yards
6. 9-21 for 86 yards
Total. 23-48 for 293 yards, 48% completion rate and 6.1 yards per attempt

So Kolbe has certainly out-passed Davis so far when they were counting stats. Written reports suggest Davis has shown more running skills. But reports also indicate Davis has more picks.

At this point, I have to believe Kolbe has done enough to retain his starting position, but there is more camp to be played. But given our run game and OL, my money is still on Kolbe.

That said, I remain open minded until game 5 in MVFC home opener against WIU.

Thanks 4th, kind of eye opening. I’m in the camp that we need a change under center, but I just want the better guy—if it turns out to be Kolbe, great, just want to win!

 

[BirdGrad2011]

I just wanted a true competition with Davis getting every chance. If Kolbe earns it then great, but he hasn’t been what we hoped yet. Hopefully he finally breaks out.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Based on stats reported for reports 4, 5, 6 .. here is side by side of passing stats only:

Kolbe

4. 13-18 for 132 yards
5. 12-17 for 121 yards
6. 15-21 for 148 yards
Total. 40-56 for 401 yards, 71% completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt


Davis

4. 5-12 for 98 yards
5. 9-15 for 109 yards
6. 9-21 for 86 yards
Total. 23-48 for 293 yards, 48% completion rate and 6.1 yards per attempt

So Kolbe has certainly out-passed Davis so far when they were counting stats. Written reports suggest Davis has shown more running skills. But reports also indicate Davis has more picks.

At this point, I have to believe Kolbe has done enough to retain his starting position, but there is more camp to be played. But given our run game and OL, my money is still on Kolbe.

That said, I remain open minded until game 5 in MVFC home opener against WIU.

Thanks for the information fourth! I still like Kolbe and think with the new coaching staff his potential may really be shown this season. I just think there is much more to him than the program allowed to develop over the past two seasons. Having said that, if Davis gives the team the better chance to win then let the best man play! I think this offensive coaching staff will make the right decisions and get the best out of all the players. I expect to see them both play in the opening game so we will all get the chance to see them on the field ourselves very soon. I am looking forward to it!

 

[MadBird]

Thanks to fouthandshort for the "true" facts. And I know liars figure and figures lie, and the new media guide isn't posted yet, and I'm having trouble downloading last year's, but I'm fixing to figure some . . . .

Kolbe's in the top 10 in plenty of career passing stats at ISU, and probably in the top 5. That doesn't necessarily entitle him to line up vs. St.X without earning the spot, but IMHO this guy is getting kind of a bad rap. He's a very talented QB, has had some very good days and years in red and white. Not the best QB ever to line up for the Redbirds, at least not yet, but he's not bad. Let's let him get his senior year going and see if he can produce, maximize his talent, realize his potential, etc. etc. As someone else pointed out, if we get to October and the performance isn't there and one of these other guys can do better, fine. But let the experienced senior vet take his shot.

 

[fourthandshort]

Just to put this in perspective from QBR standpoint, let's assume they each had 5 TDs and 2 Picks .. since we don't really know what they had, and many TDs happened when they were working entirely from Red Zone .. that day Kolbe threw 4 TDs and Davis threw 5 .. so too skewed to use; so giving them both 5 TDs with 2 Picks

Kolbe: 40-56 for 401 yards, 5 TDs, 2 Picks - 154% QBR ... I think Kolbe's TD-Pick ratio was actually a little better than 5 to 2 ratio, so the 154% would be understated.

Davis: 23-48 for 293 yards, 5 TDs, 2 Pick - 125% QBR .. I think Davis's ratio was a little worse than 5 to 2 ratio, so the 125% would be overstated.

Both had more TDs, but that's hard to gauge accurately.

 

[fourthandshort]

Appreciate the props .. but I completely get why people got tired of me defending Kolbe .... and as I said, I am still open minded until week 5 that Davis could emerge, because he has talent .. but it's been 4 years since he's played a meaningful down.

But my "money" is still on Kolbe .. and it's not just because I believe in Kolbe. Its because I believe in OC Beathard and had near zero confidence in OC Dicken .. Dicken just has the wrong temperament for OC or QB coach position. I'm pretty confident Kolbe would have thrived very well had Beathard never left in June 2016. I followed him at Naperville Central .. he was the heart & soul of that team that won state championship playing in the toughest conference by far DuPage Valley at 8A level in IHSA. He was a "dual threat & pocket" QB at HS level and a very strong leader. You ever watch an ISU highlight of a some big screen passes or runs .. every once in a while, you will notice Kolbe is all the way down field 70+ yards blocking for the RB or WR .. a little stupid, yeah, but he does it anyway.

But losing Beathard in June (after spring ball) forced Spack to promote from within with Dicken ... the rest has been beaten to death for 2 years .. but Kolbe's confidence eroded under Dicken.

But, this is just 3 weeks of camp and it's not over. Kolbe still needs to prove himself in fall too.

 

[Hamdonger]

and it's not just because I believe in Kolbe. Its because I believe in OC Beathard

Me too. Looking forward to seeing Kolbe this year. But best man for job should play. Feel pretty good about our QB situation,though, should someone go down

 

[fourthandshort]

and it's not just because I believe in Kolbe. Its because I believe in OC Beathard

Me too. Looking forward to seeing Kolbe this year. But best man for job should play. Feel pretty good about our QB situation,though, should someone go down

yep, and I think this is the best QB depth Spack has had by far since 2009 when we had Brown, Kiel, and Lancaster competing for starting job.

 

[ISUBU]

Davis runs the 1st team offense in the scrimmage. Kolbe plays with the 2nd string, going against the 1st team defense.

May signal something, or may not.

 

[fourthandshort]

Davis runs the 1st team offense in the scrimmage. Kolbe plays with the 2nd string, going against the 1st team defense.

May signal something, or may not.

Interesting that Spack decided to do this for the final scrimmage. Might have been a make or break "tryout" type situation for Davis .. or maybe they are leaning towards Davis. 2 weeks til 1st game .. reps this next week will be interesting.

Note, Roberson was not announced as starter over Winkler in 2014 until well after this same scrimmage .. they were splitting reps 50/50 and taking turns with 1st team up until game week.

So one week to go before game week, when they have to pick someone.

 

[cpacmel]

https://twitter.com/redbirdfb/status/1030991759151714304?s=12

 

[saxman210]

I think we see both of them in every game.

 

[TIMMY]

Beathard loves read option, RPO's, deep ball. This was just a matter of time.

 

[Total Red]

Gotta give Timmy credit for this one. I didn't want to believe it. He said back on Aug 9 -

"The coaches already know who the better QB is"


The way the scrimmage was set up today with #1 offense with Davis vs. #2 defense it was clear that the table was being set for Davis. Maybe Beathard knew who he wanted all along.

I don't really like how it played out but if Davis plays well and I think he will, then I won't hold on to the hurt for very long. The Kolbe camp may feel differently.

 

[fourthandshort]

Wow, timing is very surprising given the reported numbers in camp and with Kolbe being the incumbent. I hope Davis showed a lot more in person and in practice, than he did statistically when they kept stats .. there is big difference between 70% and 50% completion rates. Obviously, they've considered everything they've seen .. most of which we have not seen. What's not too surprising is that they would see potential for upside that will only be proven with more reps and time. So they know what Kolbe can do with a real OC. But obvously they recognize Davis was bound to struggle some .. new system, new teammates, plus the rust factor not seeing game action at Memphis for 3 years.

So maybe they picked him now based on a projection. He's got 2 games and a bye week to get his game tuned up for Colorado St .. then a presumably easy one at MoST, before another test in game 5 against WIU ... and then the rest of the MVFC gauntlet. if they start with Kolbe against STX and EIU and he plays well, then Davis doesn't get that chance to work out the kinks before the MVFC grind starts in week 6, game 5.

So it seems to me like they are betting on Davis's upside given timing factor, knowing Kolbe will be ready if Davis doesn't pan out. Odds are, we're 3-1 no matter which QB plays the first 4 games .. so they're trying to see what Davis can become.

If I'm guessing right, then i get their logic and hope they are right about his upside .. because it is hard to believe they think Davis outplayed Kolbe in camp. As I said earlier .. big difference between 70% and 50% .. the latter kills drives.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

I think of it like this. Beathard had a lot of success with Tre who could hit the deep ball and run. He did not have the same touch with shorter passes. We had an All-American RB who could shoulder a lot of the offense, similar to what we have now with a great stable of RBs with JR at the lead. Perhaps this is a similar situation where both are starting caliber but Davis fits what we need more right now.. Davis isn't ever going to be Tre when running but perhaps can hit the shorter passes better than Tre would have.

Since Davis redshirted in 2015 and had a medical hardship injury in 2016, is it possible he gets a 6th year? If both guys are equal, do we go with the guy who could start for 2 more years after this one?