Northern Iowa - Quality Win?

[Hamdonger]

The ‘Birds are 42-37 since the magical season of 2015.

This is our 8th season since the magic run...which Brock should get outstanding credit for the magic. 6 games under .500 in conference play since then...if I'm not mistaken. That's a pretty stale potato chip.

 

[fourthandshort]

Was UNI a quality loss?

Yes, of course. That is how selection committee looks at it .. in theory. It's also how every computer programs it to work. Not all wins or losses are equal. Strength of schedule/opponents matters entirely in evaluating wins and losses. There is no other logical way to do this.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Right, except neither does top 10 Incarnate Word and they have several very weak wins. And there will be others on the bubble with similar resumes. And if they have a quality win, they probably also have more than a few weak wins and weak losses.

That said, we are near zero chance. I think we have less than 50/50 chance of running table. And even if we do win out, we still have very little chance anyway.

But while we dwell on our negatives playing in the best conferenceby far, we are ignoring negatives of others playing in weaker conferences.

You play in the conference you play in and you play the teams on your schedule. If you have to point to another team that plays a weaker schedule for why you should be in the playoffs your team probably does not deserve to be in the playoffs. No team should be expecting to be rewarded for losing games. Right now the Birds are in 8th place in the MVFC. The two conference teams the Birds beat, WIU and ISUb, are both 0-5 in the conference and 0-8 overall. So the Redbirds two MVFC wins are over teams collectively 0-16 and those are supposed to be quality wins because they came from the mighty MVFC? If they beat SDSU, NDSU, or even YSU or UNI maybe there is an argument. incarnate Word is 7-1 overall and 4-0 in their conference.

 

[fourthandshort]

You play in the conference you play in and you play the teams on your schedule. If you have to point to another team that plays a weaker schedule for why you should be in the playoffs your team probably does not deserve to be in the playoffs. No team should be expecting to be rewarded for losing games. Right now the Birds are in 8th place in the MVFC. The two conference teams the Birds beat, WIU and ISUb, are both 0-5 in the conference and 0-8 overall. So the Redbirds two MVFC wins are over teams collectively 0-16 and those are supposed to be quality wins because they came from the mighty MVFC? If they beat SDSU, NDSU, or even YSU or UNI maybe there is an argument. incarnate Word is 7-1 overall and 4-0 in their conference.

Sorry Virginia, but doesn't make any sense. And it is not how the selection committee works. If you play weak teams and want to be ranked and make playoffs, you need to put them away.

Their record means nothing. We too would be 7-1 playing that schedule. And we too would be questionable playoff bid barely beating bunch of teams with 0 or 1 win.

They'll probably get the autobid, but have done nothing to earn it. Just like a G5 team could go 11-1, they'll never make CFB nor get a real bowl bid ... the argument is no different in FCS than it is in FBS. It is all about quality wins and losses vs bad wins and losses. Beating a bad team by 3 is bad. Losing to a good team by 3 is much better than beating a bad team by 3. This is how it works.

That said, our chances are bear zero at 7-4 ... why? Because we have a weak SOS thus year. Most years, it would be enough, or even more than enough playing in MVFC. Not this year for us.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

This is our 8th season since the magic run...which Brock should get outstanding credit for the magic. 6 games under .500 in conference play since then...if I'm not mistaken. That's a pretty stale potato chip.

Honestly, all credit for that magical run in ‘14 goes to Tre Roberson and Coprich. Spack got lucky he had Beathard (who was subsequently run out of the program for ridiculous reasons) and that Roberson fell into his lap.

 

[fourthandshort]

Honestly, all credit for that magical run in ‘14 goes to Tre Roberson and Coprich. Spack got lucky he had Beathard (who was subsequently run out of the program for ridiculous reasons) and that Roberson fell into his lap.

I always find it interesting how the rest of the FCS world, objective outsiders, have a lot of respect for Spack's program and results. But the "experts" on this forum have very little respect for what he has done for Redbird football while playing in the most dominant conference. Now according to CaliRdBrd, he has done nothing ... yeah, ok .. this is getting just plain stupid.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND PLAYING IN THE MVFC matters 100%. Otherwise we should just move to OVC or Southland (of late) or NEC or Patriot, so those who just can't seem to grasp this easy concept will feel better about our program.

p.s. for the record .. again .. I recognize his time is coming to an end and it has been lackluster 3 to 4 years, since the very nice run in 2019 ... a year when everyone said we had no business being in playoffs and Spack needed to be fired. But I have said many times now, he doesn't deserve an extension or new contract .. unless something bigger happens this and/or next season. Just let his contract run out.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

I always find it interesting how the rest of the FCS world, objective outsiders, have a lot of respect for Spack's program and results. But the "experts" on this forum have very little respect for what he has done for Redbird football while playing in the most dominant conference. Now according to CaliRdBrd, he has done nothing ... yeah, ok .. this is getting just plain stupid.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND PLAYING IN THE MVFC matters 100%. Otherwise we should just move to OVC or Southland (of late) or NEC or Patriot, so those who just can't seem to grasp this easy concept will feel better about our program.

p.s. for the record .. again .. I recognize his time is coming to an end and it has been lackluster 3 to 4 years, since the very nice run in 2019 ... a year when everyone said we had no business being in playoffs and Spack needed to be fired. But I have said many times now, he doesn't deserve an extension or new contract .. unless something bigger happens this and/or next season. Just let his contract run out.

I never said “he has done nothing”. That said, if Roberson didn’t fall into ISU’s lap, Spack would have never made it to Frisco.
I appreciate what he’s done, but the past is the past.

 

[fourthandshort]

I never said “he has done nothing”. That said, if Roberson didn’t fall into ISU’s lap, Spack would have never made it to Frisco.
I appreciate what he’s done, but the past is the past.

You just marginalized Spack's role in our best season.

Besides, Tre Roberson had a very rough start in 2014 .. look at the stats. He had to be managed into his very successful season. Marshaun Coprich was Spack's recruit and he developed him. Same for James Robinson. Not to mention fact that 3 players form the 2014 roster made NFL rosters and played many years .. none named Roberson or Coprich.

Though I take the inferred point that Spack struggles to recruit/develop HS QBs ... I have been very vocally critical of Spack on this point and may points related to our QB depth and pass game struggles. So I don't just reflexively drink Spack Koolaid .. ask anyone else here, who doesn't just show up to chirp after a loss.

 

[TBS_20]

1. James is a starting RB in the NFL and has proved that. I'm mad every year he doesnt start lol
2. I think we may all need to rest this conversation until at least Saturday because everyone seems to be getting amped up.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Sorry Virginia, but doesn't make any sense. And it is not how the selection committee works. If you play weak teams and want to be ranked and make playoffs, you need to put them away.

Fourth, if the selection committee worked the way you think it does teams would not be left out that deserve a bid. It happens regularly and we all know it. I don't know why you are so adamant about Incarnate Word. They did very well in the playoffs last year winning two games and losing a close game to NDSU, what you describe as a "quality loss". During the 2022 season they beat SIU convincingly even though IW is from the pitifully weak Southland conference and SIU is from the mighty MVFC. This season they played an FBS team to start the season, UTEP, and lost but the they did play an FBS team. They are playing essentially the same conference teams as in 2022. I think they have earned whatever status they may have.

The Spack discussion is getting monotonous. Nobody is going to change anybody's mind about what should be done. I think circumstances are going to dictate what happens not W's and L's. With temps filling impacting positions, I don't think anyone pulls a trigger any time soon. I think Spack will run out his contract and then a decision will be made. He has two more seasons almost certainly. More and more I am thinking it is time for a change but I don't get a vote. I never think it is a good idea to fire a coach during the season, what do you gain by that?

This has become an extremely frustrating season, as we can all tell by the discussion on this board. I watched ISU on Saturday and the Bears last night. I have had all the frustration I can tolerate for one week!

 

[Total Red]

I'll be responding to several different posts here.

Coach Spack has said more than once that it is a player's game. It's mostly up to them. Coaches get too much credit and too much blame for wins and losses. Mostly I agree with him. I would add though that's it is up to him to recruit those players. At times he has been able to do that. Tre Roberson didn't just fall into our lap. He had options. That was a great recruiting job. Same with Annexstad. You have to give Coach Spack credit for recruiting Zack because he didn't have an OC when Zack committed. Petersen came later.

And some people think that Coach Petersen could get pulled away by a FBS team. Funny, nobody had anything good to say last year when we scored 20 points or less 7 times. Petersen was hot at Appalachian St. in '20 and he got hired as OC at Illinois. Then one bad season at Illinois in '21 with a less than mediocre QB and he gets fired. Then he has the lackluster '22 season here at Illinois State. The offense perks up in '23 under a 6th year QB and all of sudden he's hot again? He's the same coach people. When the players play well then coaches look like geniuses.
Coach Petersen does deserve some credit for the offensive improvement. He's tailored the offense to what Zack does best and that is accuracy in the short passing game. Zack can throw long but those are riskier throws, and we don't have a good deep threat (speed/size combo). The short passing game holds sacks and int's to a minimum. Those are drive killers. It does require the QB to compete a lot of passes to get down the field but Zack has the accuracy to do it. The horizontal passes are ok, but I don't like them on 3rd down. I'd rather send the receivers past the sticks and make sure the reception gets you a 1st down. Riskier I know, but I hate getting 4 yards on 3rd and 7.

So it's a player's game but fans still want to talk about Coach Spack's future. First, I'll say that sticking with Coach Spack is not a vote for mediocracy. The program has had up and downs before. The 'Birds were 5-6 in '13 and almost no one saw a 13-2 on the horizon for the next year in'14. Tre Roberson and some other outstanding players will do that. Can he pull a Tre out of his hat again? Probably not, but he's done it before, so he stands as much chance as anyone, maybe more. We could have a very good team coming back next year. The biggest hole to fill will be the QB position. Zack will be hard to replace. But Coach Spack got Roberson and Annexstad, so he could do it again. He also has an IPF to help him.

Most of his teams do finish in the middle but that doesn't mean he's fine with 5-6 or 6-5. As fourth points out we play in the best FCS conference with good to great players and coaches on opposing teams. You can strive for greatness and get knocked back every year by other quality programs doing the same. If anyone thinks that Coach Spack is content to play out his final years without making another playoff run, then they don't know him at all.

Meanwhile we have 3 games to play this season. I don't like discussing big picture coaching decisions during the season, but you got me to bite. Now beat Bill Murray.

 

[TBS_20]

Yes, he needs to go because their game planss are terrible and he won't adjust...just like nagy and eberflus

 

[Virginia Redbird]

I'll be responding to several different posts here.

Coach Spack has said more than once that it is a player's game. It's mostly up to them. Coaches get too much credit and too much blame for wins and losses. Mostly I agree with him. I would add though that's it is up to him to recruit those players. At times he has been able to do that. Tre Roberson didn't just fall into our lap. He had options. That was a great recruiting job. Same with Annexstad. You have to give Coach Spack credit for recruiting Zack because he didn't have an OC when Zack committed. Petersen came later.

And some people think that Coach Petersen could get pulled away by a FBS team. Funny, nobody had anything good to say last year when we scored 20 points or less 7 times. Petersen was hot at Appalachian St. in '20 and he got hired as OC at Illinois. Then one bad season at Illinois in '21 with a less than mediocre QB and he gets fired. Then he has the lackluster '22 season here at Illinois State. The offense perks up in '23 under a 6th year QB and all of sudden he's hot again? He's the same coach people. When the players play well then coaches look like geniuses.
Coach Petersen does deserve some credit for the offensive improvement. He's tailored the offense to what Zack does best and that is accuracy in the short passing game. Zack can throw long but those are riskier throws, and we don't have a good deep threat (speed/size combo). The short passing game holds sacks and int's to a minimum. Those are drive killers. It does require the QB to compete a lot of passes to get down the field but Zack has the accuracy to do it. The horizontal passes are ok, but I don't like them on 3rd down. I'd rather send the receivers past the sticks and make sure the reception gets you a 1st down. Riskier I know, but I hate getting 4 yards on 3rd and 7.

So it's a player's game but fans still want to talk about Coach Spack's future. First, I'll say that sticking with Coach Spack is not a vote for mediocracy. The program has had up and downs before. The 'Birds were 5-6 in '13 and almost no one saw a 13-2 on the horizon for the next year in'14. Tre Roberson and some other outstanding players will do that. Can he pull a Tre out of his hat again? Probably not, but he's done it before, so he stands as much chance as anyone, maybe more. We could have a very good team coming back next year. The biggest hole to fill will be the QB position. Zack will be hard to replace. But Coach Spack got Roberson and Annexstad, so he could do it again. He also has an IPF to help him.

Most of his teams do finish in the middle but that doesn't mean he's fine with 5-6 or 6-5. As fourth points out we play in the best FCS conference with good to great players and coaches on opposing teams. You can strive for greatness and get knocked back every year by other quality programs doing the same. If anyone thinks that Coach Spack is content to play out his final years without making another playoff run, then they don't know him at all.

Meanwhile we have 3 games to play this season. I don't like discussing big picture coaching decisions during the season, but you got me to bite. Now beat Bill Murray.

Honestly Red, if you truly believe the coaches are not a big, factor you are just blind. You need good players of course but who recruits them? You have to put players in position to make plays. The preparation that goes into game planning and bringing out the best in your players is coaching. So many comments of this page that they are worried about losing Spack because of the anticipated slide back to losing season after losing season. Why worry if it is just a players game. Peterson is the same coach but if you are successful you get noticed if you are not successful then you don't. If you want to progress in your career you take advantage when you are noticed. Players don't make decision like not calling time outs to save time as the other team drives for what turned out to be the winning points and now there is zero time left and you lose. Players don't make substitutions, halftime adjustments, calling plays and on and on. The coaching staff in football is absolutely critical maybe especially on game day. Soccer is a players game much more than football. I think all coaches strive for greatness but only a few achieve it. That is the difference between a championship team and finishing in the middle.

 

[Total Red]

Honestly Red, if you truly believe the coaches are not a big, factor you are just blind. You need good players of course but who recruits them? You have to put players in position to make plays. The preparation that goes into game planning and bringing out the best in your players is coaching. So many comments of this page that they are worried about losing Spack because of the anticipated slide back to losing season after losing season. Why worry if it is just a players game. Peterson is the same coach but if you are successful you get noticed if you are not successful then you don't. If you want to progress in your career you take advantage when you are noticed. Players don't make decision like not calling time outs to save time as the other team drives for what turned out to be the winning points and now there is zero time left and you lose. Players don't make substitutions, halftime adjustments, calling plays and on and on. The coaching staff in football is absolutely critical maybe especially on game day. Soccer is a players game much more than football. I think all coaches strive for greatness but only a few achieve it. That is the difference between a championship team and finishing in the middle.

Read the post you are responding to - honestly. I started by quoting Coach Spack. He's the one that said it's a player's game. Not me. I did say I mostly agreed with him, but not completely. I mostly agree because if I had to pick the team with the better players or the better coach to win a game, I'd go with the players. That doesn't mean that I think that coaches can't influence games. I know they do.

You said "You need good players of course but who recruits them?
Umm, I said almost the exact same thing. "I would add though that's it is up to him to recruit those players." I answered your question before you even posted it.

And "anticipated slide back to losing season after losing season."
I'm not sure who is anticipating that. Coach Spack had a winning season last year and his chances of another winning season this year are very good.

And finally, you once took a jab at me for an "insightful" comment, but I think you have me beat when it comes to cutting edge original insight.

I think all coaches strive for greatness but only a few achieve it. That is the difference between a championship team and finishing in the middle.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

Sorry Virginia, but doesn't make any sense. And it is not how the selection committee works. If you play weak teams and want to be ranked and make playoffs, you need to put them away.

Their record means nothing. We too would be 7-1 playing that schedule. And we too would be questionable playoff bid barely beating bunch of teams with 0 or 1 win.

They'll probably get the autobid, but have done nothing to earn it. Just like a G5 team could go 11-1, they'll never make CFB nor get a real bowl bid ... the argument is no different in FCS than it is in FBS. It is all about quality wins and losses vs bad wins and losses. Beating a bad team by 3 is bad. Losing to a good team by 3 is much better than beating a bad team by 3. This is how it works.

That said, our chances are bear zero at 7-4 ... why? Because we have a weak SOS thus year. Most years, it would be enough, or even more than enough playing in MVFC. Not this year for us.

I’m only pointing this out since I had to look up Dave Doeren and (former ISU asst) Rod Carey on Wikipedia. The NIU team that played in the Orange Bowl vs FSU was 12-1 going into that game. They lost their opener to Iowa by a point, beat very bad Army and Kansas teams, and then beat #18 Kent State in the MAC championship. These days, it’s harder, but an 11-1 or 12-1 G5 team can make a major bowl.

I’m hoping Air Force, Liberty, and JMU keep winning and create an argument for some better bowl options.

Speaking of coaching changes and former Indiana players, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of coaching turnover, especially if they let Allen go, and players transfer from IU.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

I'll be responding to several different posts here.

Coach Spack has said more than once that it is a player's game. It's mostly up to them. Coaches get too much credit and too much blame for wins and losses. Mostly I agree with him. I would add though that's it is up to him to recruit those players. At times he has been able to do that. Tre Roberson didn't just fall into our lap. He had options. That was a great recruiting job. Same with Annexstad. You have to give Coach Spack credit for recruiting Zack because he didn't have an OC when Zack committed. Petersen came later.

And some people think that Coach Petersen could get pulled away by a FBS team. Funny, nobody had anything good to say last year when we scored 20 points or less 7 times. Petersen was hot at Appalachian St. in '20 and he got hired as OC at Illinois. Then one bad season at Illinois in '21 with a less than mediocre QB and he gets fired. Then he has the lackluster '22 season here at Illinois State. The offense perks up in '23 under a 6th year QB and all of sudden he's hot again? He's the same coach people. When the players play well then coaches look like geniuses.
Coach Petersen does deserve some credit for the offensive improvement. He's tailored the offense to what Zack does best and that is accuracy in the short passing game. Zack can throw long but those are riskier throws, and we don't have a good deep threat (speed/size combo). The short passing game holds sacks and int's to a minimum. Those are drive killers. It does require the QB to compete a lot of passes to get down the field but Zack has the accuracy to do it. The horizontal passes are ok, but I don't like them on 3rd down. I'd rather send the receivers past the sticks and make sure the reception gets you a 1st down. Riskier I know, but I hate getting 4 yards on 3rd and 7.

So it's a player's game but fans still want to talk about Coach Spack's future. First, I'll say that sticking with Coach Spack is not a vote for mediocracy. The program has had up and downs before. The 'Birds were 5-6 in '13 and almost no one saw a 13-2 on the horizon for the next year in'14. Tre Roberson and some other outstanding players will do that. Can he pull a Tre out of his hat again? Probably not, but he's done it before, so he stands as much chance as anyone, maybe more. We could have a very good team coming back next year. The biggest hole to fill will be the QB position. Zack will be hard to replace. But Coach Spack got Roberson and Annexstad, so he could do it again. He also has an IPF to help him.

Most of his teams do finish in the middle but that doesn't mean he's fine with 5-6 or 6-5. As fourth points out we play in the best FCS conference with good to great players and coaches on opposing teams. You can strive for greatness and get knocked back every year by other quality programs doing the same. If anyone thinks that Coach Spack is content to play out his final years without making another playoff run, then they don't know him at all.

Meanwhile we have 3 games to play this season. I don't like discussing big picture coaching decisions during the season, but you got me to bite. Now beat Bill Murray.

Would it also be fair to say that from a budget perspective, we really didn’t have the same FB resources that our top opponents have, especially those with bad weather? The IPF changes that, but it wasn’t operational until now.

 

[Total Red]

Would it also be fair to say that from a budget perspective, we really didn’t have the same FB resources that our top opponents have, especially those with bad weather? The IPF changes that, but it wasn’t operational until now.

No doubt about the facilities being very good at the Dakota states. It also helps that they can recruit to a school where large fanbases make football the #1 sport.

 

[fourthandshort]

Fourth, if the selection committee worked the way you think it does teams would not be left out that deserve a bid. It happens regularly and we all know it. I don't know why you are so adamant about Incarnate Word. They did very well in the playoffs last year winning two games and losing a close game to NDSU, what you describe as a "quality loss". During the 2022 season they beat SIU convincingly even though IW is from the pitifully weak Southland conference and SIU is from the mighty MVFC. This season they played an FBS team to start the season, UTEP, and lost but the they did play an FBS team. They are playing essentially the same conference teams as in 2022. I think they have earned whatever status they may have.

The Spack discussion is getting monotonous. Nobody is going to change anybody's mind about what should be done. I think circumstances are going to dictate what happens not W's and L's. With temps filling impacting positions, I don't think anyone pulls a trigger any time soon. I think Spack will run out his contract and then a decision will be made. He has two more seasons almost certainly. More and more I am thinking it is time for a change but I don't get a vote. I never think it is a good idea to fire a coach during the season, what do you gain by that?

This has become an extremely frustrating season, as we can all tell by the discussion on this board. I watched ISU on Saturday and the Bears last night. I have had all the frustration I can tolerate for one week!

Agree they still make mistakes, just notably less obvious.

Over time and under pressure to do it better, they've been forced posy a top 10 after games 8, 9, and 10. Then post the bids after game 11. In addition, they were forced to disclose their rationale. As a result, they've been forced to be more transparent about who and why over time. And they've further noted they will rely on RPI as objective support.

They also get pressure from polls like Stats and AGS. In fact, observing AGS over time, they usually do the best job simply because of their forum's transparency publishing each voters votes each week and then questioning each other's questionable votes. Coaches poll is generally worthless at FCS level .. too regionalized, too lazy, and zero transparency. Stats is better because there is more oversight by the people who run the site .. and they at least try to steer voters on objective direction .. see below link as to how Stats tries to steer Stats and the FCS selection committee.

FCS: Week 10 Resumes For The Top 10 Ranked Teams .. note Stats now adding Massey SOS to each of the FCS Selection Committees Top 10s, along with quality wins (then and current).

Further noting, there has been far more articles and press releases on this very topic. Resulting in selection committee trying harder to incorporate SOS overall and game by game when deciding on bubble teams and top 8 seeding in particular. The whole top 10 lists and then publishing the last 4 in and last 4 out thing is the most tangible evidence of this and a great thing .. it's transparency that leads to better selections when they deal with usual backlash from ADs/Coaches and fans in general. They can't ignore it.

But yes, they still make mistakes .. just far less than they used to.

p.s. regardless of whether you disagree partly or largely with my views on this. Please trust I have followed this stuff closely and over the last 10+ years. It is going in right direction, but still can be improved.

 

[isuquinndog]

You can't fire players (especially at the pro level) so fans call for the coaches heads. Even if the players aren't playing well. Coaches can't execute the plays they call. That is up to the players.

*This not specific to any one team, coach, player, organization or school*

 

[MadBird]

Fourth, if the selection committee worked the way you think it does teams would not be left out that deserve a bid. It happens regularly and we all know it. I don't know why you are so adamant about Incarnate Word. They did very well in the playoffs last year winning two games and losing a close game to NDSU, what you describe as a "quality loss". During the 2022 season they beat SIU convincingly even though IW is from the pitifully weak Southland conference and SIU is from the mighty MVFC. This season they played an FBS team to start the season, UTEP, and lost but the they did play an FBS team. They are playing essentially the same conference teams as in 2022. I think they have earned whatever status they may have.

The Spack discussion is getting monotonous. Nobody is going to change anybody's mind about what should be done. I think circumstances are going to dictate what happens not W's and L's. With temps filling impacting positions, I don't think anyone pulls a trigger any time soon. I think Spack will run out his contract and then a decision will be made. He has two more seasons almost certainly. More and more I am thinking it is time for a change but I don't get a vote. I never think it is a good idea to fire a coach during the season, what do you gain by that?

This has become an extremely frustrating season, as we can all tell by the discussion on this board. I watched ISU on Saturday and the Bears last night. I have had all the frustration I can tolerate for one week!

Amen to all of it.