Northern Iowa - Quality Win?

[Total Red]

The Redbirds are sitting at 4-3 and that has led to a less than enthusiastic response from the fanbase. Missing from the resume is a quality win. It's not that the Redbirds haven't played at a high level. The 44-7 thrashing of Indiana St. was an impressive performance but it didn't mean that INSU was a good team, and it doesn't count as a quality win. The schedule didn't really provide opportunities for quality wins until the last two weeks. SDSU was beyond our reach, YSU was a close loss. Looking ahead N. Iowa and North Dakota could be counted as quality wins, but UNI is the only one we play at home. So this is it football fans. Last chance for a quality win up close, unless you're making the trek to North Dakota. The Redbirds have played their best ball against the Panthers and they have won the last two. Both games were very close. A 17-10 O.T. win for the 'Birds in '21 and a 23-21 victory last year.

If HC Brock Spack makes it a hat trick over Coach Mark Farley of UNI, will he meet him at midfield after the game and shout "I Own You!"
No, I think he's going to shout, "We won one for tier placement!"


ChiRedbirdfan -
"a reasonable argument can be made that we are not in the same tier as uni and ysu....we will know this time next week"

 

[Phantom]

If we want to even sniff the playoffs, then every game from here on is a must win. Start with this one.

 

[fourthandshort]

If we want to even sniff the playoffs, then every game from here on is a must win. Start with this one.

Playoff hopes are over if we lose this one. YSU will look like a quality loss in committees eyes. And while we have technically had quality wins blowing out several weak teams, we lost to EIU and have a very weak overall SOS. So very impressive wins like ISUb .. wont carry much weight. So yes, we need to beat UNI .. hopefully by 10 or more. Need an attention getting outcome.

Interesting thing about SOS and quality wins. Look at Incarnate Word from Southland ... see below from Massey, in terms of who they've beat in terms of record and Massey rank .. and by how much. North American is a bad NAIA team. They won't play a single ranked team, much less playoff team, the entire season. They lost to UTEP by 14m and their ranked 161st in D-I by Massey, which means about 30th in FCS .. and they lost by 14.

So is IW consider Top 25 playoff team ... no. They're considered a Top 8 seed. Incarnate Word is #4 on Coaches Poll, #8 on STATS, and #11 on AGS. One of their fans complained on AGS why they were dropping despite winning 6 straight games. Their best win is Abilene Christian, Massey #32, by just 7. And they have 4 easy games remaining.

IW combined opponent record is 9-43 with SOS ranked 78th.

ISU combined opponent record is 21-30 with SOS ranked 68th.

I hereby put forth a motion for ISU to join Southland so Spack could be a better coach .. all in favor ?

Date		Opponent		Result	PF	PA
Sat 09-02	at	UTEP	(2-6)	L	14	28
Sat 09-09	at	N Colorado	96 (0-7)	W	42	7
Sat 09-16	at	Abilene Chr	32 (4-3)	W	27	20
Sat 09-23		North American	(1-7)	W	63	3
Sat 10-07		SE Louisiana	64 (1-7)	W	33	26
Sat 10-14		TX A&M Commerce	75 (1-6)	W	28	11
Sat 10-21	at	McNeese St	107 (0-7)	W	35	24
Sat 10-28 04:00.PM.ET	at	Lamar	69 (4-3)	87 %
Sat 11-04 04:00.PM.ET		Nicholls St	44 (3-3)	75 %
Sat 11-11 03:00.PM.ET		Northwestern LA	113 (0-6)	95 %
Sat 11-18 03:00.PM.ET	at	Houston Chr	94 (3-4)	92 %

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Yep, lose to UNI and we start talking about playing out the string and next year.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Playoff hopes are over if we lose this one. YSU will look like a quality loss in committees eyes.

When you begin to talk about things like a "quality loss" your team is in trouble.

 

[fourthandshort]

Virginia .. I disagree completely. Playoff bids and even top 8 seeds, if done right, should be entirely about quality wins and losses vs bad wins and losses. How else do you distinguish one 7-4 team from another ?

IW has several weak wins, which should be counted against them ... but aren't at moment. They will be the team who makes the playoff and prays for a pairing with a weak 8-3 autobid. because if they play anyone legit, they will get destroyed.

 

[TBS_20]

Playoffs?? Youre talking about playoffs?! This team isnt making the playoffs.

 

[DaveBird10]

According to Craig Haley at STATS, UNI @ ISU is 1 of 4 games to watch this week where the winner gets a big boost to playoff resume where the looser needs to win out.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Virginia .. I disagree completely. Playoff bids and even top 8 seeds, if done right, should be entirely about quality wins and losses vs bad wins and losses. How else do you distinguish one 7-4 team from another ?

IW has several weak wins, which should be counted against them ... but aren't at moment. They will be the team who makes the playoff and prays for a pairing with a weak 8-3 autobid. because if they play anyone legit, they will get destroyed.

We can disagree, no problem. I think it is human nature though to look at quality wins. I don't think that same applies to quality losses. I don't think many people are going to look at the YSU game and say it was a good effort against a good team, which it was. I think they will just see a conference loss. I think this quality thing falls apart when a weaker conference than the MVFC get multiple teams in the playoffs when they played a softer schedule because their conference is not as strong. To be honest, all I said if you are relying on "quality" losses for playoff consideration your team is in trouble. Trouble meaning an opportunity to get a playoff bid. Yep, I think the Redbirds are in real trouble trying to compete for a playoff bid after the YSU loss.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

Playoff hopes are over if we lose this one. YSU will look like a quality loss in committees eyes. And while we have technically had quality wins blowing out several weak teams, we lost to EIU and have a very weak overall SOS. So very impressive wins like ISUb .. wont carry much weight. So yes, we need to beat UNI .. hopefully by 10 or more. Need an attention getting outcome.

Interesting thing about SOS and quality wins. Look at Incarnate Word from Southland ... see below from Massey, in terms of who they've beat in terms of record and Massey rank .. and by how much. North American is a bad NAIA team. They won't play a single ranked team, much less playoff team, the entire season. They lost to UTEP by 14m and their ranked 161st in D-I by Massey, which means about 30th in FCS .. and they lost by 14.

So is IW consider Top 25 playoff team ... no. They're considered a Top 8 seed. Incarnate Word is #4 on Coaches Poll, #8 on STATS, and #11 on AGS. One of their fans complained on AGS why they were dropping despite winning 6 straight games. Their best win is Abilene Christian, Massey #32, by just 7. And they have 4 easy games remaining.

IW combined opponent record is 9-43 with SOS ranked 78th.

ISU combined opponent record is 21-30 with SOS ranked 68th.

I hereby put forth a motion for ISU to join Southland so Spack could be a better coach .. all in favor ?

Date		Opponent		Result	PF	PA
Sat 09-02	at	UTEP	(2-6)	L	14	28
Sat 09-09	at	N Colorado	96 (0-7)	W	42	7
Sat 09-16	at	Abilene Chr	32 (4-3)	W	27	20
Sat 09-23		North American	(1-7)	W	63	3
Sat 10-07		SE Louisiana	64 (1-7)	W	33	26
Sat 10-14		TX A&M Commerce	75 (1-6)	W	28	11
Sat 10-21	at	McNeese St	107 (0-7)	W	35	24
Sat 10-28 04:00.PM.ET	at	Lamar	69 (4-3)	87 %
Sat 11-04 04:00.PM.ET		Nicholls St	44 (3-3)	75 %
Sat 11-11 03:00.PM.ET		Northwestern LA	113 (0-6)	95 %
Sat 11-18 03:00.PM.ET	at	Houston Chr	94 (3-4)	92 %

You’re assuming YSU finishes strong. If so, it’s still a loss, but I guess it could be considered a quality loss. I’m suspect they finish strong though.
Also, when will this program get to the point where we’re talking about “quality wins” and not “quality losses”?

 

[Manchester Matt]

Virginia .. I disagree completely. Playoff bids and even top 8 seeds, if done right, should be entirely about quality wins and losses vs bad wins and losses. How else do you distinguish one 7-4 team from another ?

IW has several weak wins, which should be counted against them ... but aren't at moment. They will be the team who makes the playoff and prays for a pairing with a weak 8-3 autobid. because if they play anyone legit, they will get destroyed.

You really consider Indiana State a quality win because we boat raced them? I have a different definition of quality.

 

[ISUBU]

Incarnate Word is getting carry over respect from last year's playoff run. They are winning the games that are on their schedule. That'll keep them in the top tier until they lose a couple.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Incarnate Word is getting carry over respect from last year's playoff run. They are winning the games that are on their schedule. That'll keep them in the top tier until they lose a couple.

Yup. It’s the same reason guys like Craig Haley keep NDSU in the top 10 when they don’t deserve it.

 

[topiarydan]

Yup. It’s the same reason guys like Craig Haley keep NDSU in the top 10 when they don’t deserve it.

We will beat UNI this week. We will win rest except for NDakota - we will go 7-4

 

[fourthandshort]

You really consider Indiana State a quality win because we boat raced them? I have a different definition of quality.

Yes, I am 100% certain it was a quality win. Because if we only beat them 7, it would be a bad win .. like Valpo last year.

So assuming you went nuts a year ago after the really bad Valpo win .. doesn't it stand to reason ISUb was a really good win ?

It's not complicated.

 

[fourthandshort]

Incarnate Word is getting carry over respect from last year's playoff run. They are winning the games that are on their schedule. That'll keep them in the top tier until they lose a couple.

No doubt .. but it still makes no sense whatsoever .. sheer laziness. Come selection time ... you put their resume up against some others, it will look really bad, if someone like YSU gets left out for IW. IW has a terrible resume and the committee will notice it. though odds are they will get the auto bid and they will be one those classic weak auto bids like from Patriot or NEC.

So it's probably a moot point .. except the lazy coaches have them ranked 4th right now. There are probably 15 teams who would beat them handily. Further think they would be lucky to finish 8th in MVFC.

 

[fourthandshort]

Playoffs?? Youre talking about playoffs?! This team isnt making the playoffs.

Yes, we still have shot. I'm a fan.

 

[Redbird15]

UNI HC Mark Farley Press Conference . Mark Farley Press Conference - Oct. 23, 2023

 

[Manchester Matt]

Yes, I am 100% certain it was a quality win. Because if we only beat them 7, it would be a bad win .. like Valpo last year.

So assuming you went nuts a year ago after the really bad Valpo win .. doesn't it stand to reason ISUb was a really good win ?

It's not complicated.

Apparently it is for you. Beating a winless team by 37 is not quality. THEY SUCK! I don’t care if we beat them by 200. You’re reaching here. Like really reaching. Because we have nothing of quality, you’ll reach for any little thing you can find.

We have two conference wins against teams with a combined 0-14 record. We beat a non scholly team and a team who just went FCS last year.

It seems like you’re the one having a hard time comprehending what is impressive and what isn’t.

Talk to me when we beat UNI. Then you’ll have something of substance. Until then, this is a bunch of hot garbage.

 

[fourthandshort]

Apparently it is for you. Beating a winless team by 37 is not quality. THEY SUCK! I don’t care if we beat them by 200. You’re reaching here. Like really reaching. Because we have nothing of quality, you’ll reach for any little thing you can find.

We have two conference wins against teams with a combined 0-14 record. We beat a non scholly team and a team who just went FCS last year.

It seems like you’re the one having a hard time comprehending what is impressive and what isn’t.

Talk to me when we beat UNI. Then you’ll have something of substance. Until then, this is a bunch of hot garbage.

It is really odd that it bothers you so much that I think we still have shot at playoffs ?

But no matter how much your rant and rave to the contrary ... Quality wins and losses vs bad wins and losses, relative to SOS .. this is how the FCS committee has publicly stated they determine who makes playoffs and the seeds themselves.

And if we were on the bubble with another team with same record and similar results, with one common opponent who we bat by 38 and they beat by 7 ... they would pick us and say this was the exact reason .. we put away ISUb and they didn't.

I'll wait for you to lose your sh-t again over me mentioning playoffs.