Northern Iowa - Quality Win?

Redbird15

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It is really odd that it bothers you so much that I think we still have shot at playoffs ?

But no matter how much your rant and rave to the contrary ... Quality wins and losses vs bad wins and losses, relative to SOS .. this is how the FCS committee has publicly stated they determine who makes playoffs and the seeds themselves.

And if we were on the bubble with another team with same record and similar results, with one common opponent who we bat by 38 and they beat by 7 ... they would pick us and say this was the exact reason .. we put away ISUb and they didn't.

I'll wait for you to lose your sh-t again over me mentioning playoffs.
Lol everyone forgot we beat UNI last year with an offense that some what better than last year. We will follow know this weekend when it plays out on the field !
 

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Manchester Matt

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It is really odd that it bothers you so much that I think we still have shot at playoffs ?

But no matter how much your rant and rave to the contrary ... Quality wins and losses vs bad wins and losses, relative to SOS .. this is how the FCS committee has publicly stated they determine who makes playoffs and the seeds themselves.

And if we were on the bubble with another team with same record and similar results, with one common opponent who we bat by 38 and they beat by 7 ... they would pick us and say this was the exact reason .. we put away ISUb and they didn't.

I'll wait for you to lose your sh-t again over me mentioning playoffs.
Losing my shit? You’re funny. You’re also hilarious that you think I don’t want us to make the playoffs. Simply called you out for saying Indiana State was a quality win.

In the end, we want the same things. Just simply view things differently to get to that end game.
 

CaliRdBrd

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Playoff hopes are over if we lose this one. YSU will look like a quality loss in committees eyes. And while we have technically had quality wins blowing out several weak teams, we lost to EIU and have a very weak overall SOS. So very impressive wins like ISUb .. wont carry much weight. So yes, we need to beat UNI .. hopefully by 10 or more. Need an attention getting outcome.

Interesting thing about SOS and quality wins. Look at Incarnate Word from Southland ... see below from Massey, in terms of who they've beat in terms of record and Massey rank .. and by how much. North American is a bad NAIA team. They won't play a single ranked team, much less playoff team, the entire season. They lost to UTEP by 14m and their ranked 161st in D-I by Massey, which means about 30th in FCS .. and they lost by 14.

So is IW consider Top 25 playoff team ... no. They're considered a Top 8 seed. Incarnate Word is #4 on Coaches Poll, #8 on STATS, and #11 on AGS. One of their fans complained on AGS why they were dropping despite winning 6 straight games. Their best win is Abilene Christian, Massey #32, by just 7. And they have 4 easy games remaining.

IW combined opponent record is 9-43 with SOS ranked 78th.

ISU combined opponent record is 21-30 with SOS ranked 68th.

I hereby put forth a motion for ISU to join Southland so Spack could be a better coach .. all in favor ?


DateOpponentResultPFPA
Sat 09-02atUTEP(2-6)L1428
Sat 09-09atN Colorado96
(0-7)
W427
Sat 09-16atAbilene Chr32
(4-3)
W2720
Sat 09-23North American(1-7)W633
Sat 10-07SE Louisiana64
(1-7)
W3326
Sat 10-14TX A&M Commerce75
(1-6)
W2811
Sat 10-21atMcNeese St107
(0-7)
W3524
Sat 10-28
04:00.PM.ET
atLamar69
(4-3)
87 %
Sat 11-04
04:00.PM.ET
Nicholls St44
(3-3)
75 %
Sat 11-11
03:00.PM.ET
Northwestern LA113
(0-6)
95 %
Sat 11-18
03:00.PM.ET
atHouston Chr94
(3-4)
92 %
I’m chuckling a bit because your argument against IC being ranked is the opposite of the argument we use when the basketball team is left out of the “at-large” consideration.
 

fourthandshort

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Losing my shit? You’re funny. You’re also hilarious that you think I don’t want us to make the playoffs. Simply called you out for saying Indiana State was a quality win.

In the end, we want the same things. Just simply view things differently to get to that end game.
Good to hear .. but imo it does not sound like that for you when you rip me for saying it.
 

fourthandshort

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Jul 17, 2017
Messages
9,771
AGS does their weekly pick 'em, many of which are also on their poll ranking team. To this point, we are losing the UNI game vote 4 to 10. But ... the 2 lone YSU fans have picked us to win, along with an NDSU fan who is in first place (54-6).

That said, if this poll were taken a week ago, before UNI pounded UND, I'm quite sure we would have gotten far more votes. Demonstrating, it only takes one strong win to get noticed, when youre considered a "bubble" team. UNI had fallen off the radar prior to UND game.

Also recall STATS front man Haley, also has us on the bubble stating the winner of UNI at ISUr game lkely stands a good chance of making playoffs. Even though I think we also need a win or a very impressive loss at UND, combined with decisive win at MoST and then a more decisive win against MuST at home.

That and $2 bucks may or may not get you a coffee at Starbucks.
 

Total Red

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One mile west of Hancock
There is a threat of rain Saturday but it looks like it won't come until after the game. Even so, it will be a small but loyal crowd. It's not a special event game (FD, Homecoming) and there are several HS playoff games in the area.

Mel's bookie is calling it a close game. I agree. We'll have to give the Redbirds all the support we can.
 
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Bird Friend

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There is a threat of rain Saturday but it looks like it won't come until after the game. Even so, it will be a small but loyal crowd. It's not a special event game (FD, Homecoming) and there are several HS playoff games in the area.

Mel's bookie is calling it a close game. I agree. We'll have to give the Redbirds all the support we can.
Can't wait for Crazzy to tell us how many season ticketholders showed up!
 

fourthandshort

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Opening lines came out very late this week 🤷‍♂️

Illinois State +2.5

Over / under 52.5
so a 28 - 25 type game favoring UNI.

We're 4-3 playing the 68th ranked SOS. UNI is 4-3 playing the #1 SOS .. per Massey. Up until last week, UNI was trending the wrong way, but they smoked a strong UND team last week.

But common opponents favor us

- SDSU .. we lost 40-21, they lost 41-6. Advantage Redbirds

- ISUb .. we won 44-7, they won 27-20. Advantage Redbird

- YSU .. we lost 41-38 on road, they won 44-41 at home. Slight advantage UNI.

So we win the common opponents argument. But UNI also played Iowa St tough in week 1 and smoked UND last week. Which puts them ahead of us now, especially after last weeks 27-0 drubbing of UND at home.

But what jumps off their Massey schedule page is this ... their best couple games were at home, other than Weber St (6 TOs will kinda do that). And their worst couple games are on the road. Not a big revelation on surface, but as spotty as they been all year .. this looks like the difference. This and they get the TO bug one in a while. QB Day has just 10 TDs and 8 picks. Plus theyve taken 20 sacks, which is tied for 3rd most .. though playing the #1 SOS.

Their pass ranks 2nd in MVFC, their run game ranks 10th. So they shouldn't be as multi-dimensional as YSU or SDSU where we clearly got overwhelmed .. though 1st half much moreso than 2nd half in both games. Both games, we tightened things up 2nd half.

So maybe their a home/dome team. So a little home cooking and unfavorable weather probably helps us on Saturday. Noon kickoff should see 47 degrees with 12-15 mph winds ... though don't see rain at this point. Zack threw very well in weather like this at YSU. We'll see if Theo Day does as well.

Redbirds win a 27 - 24 type game.


DateOpponentResultPFPA
Sat 10-14atS Dakota St1
(7-0)
L641
Sat 11-11
03:00.PM.ET
atMissouri St28
(3-4)
58 %
Sat 10-28
01:00.PM.ET
atIllinois St31
(4-3)
60 %
Sat 09-16atIdaho St46
(3-4)
W4117
Sat 10-07atIndiana St92
(0-7)
W2720
Sat 09-02atIowa St(4-3)L930
Sat 11-18
05:00.PM.ET
N Dakota St3
(5-2)
30 %
Sat 10-21North Dakota11
(4-3)
W270
Sat 09-30Youngstown St18
(4-3)
W4441
Sat 09-09Weber St22
(3-5)
L1734
Sat 11-04
02:00.PM.ET
W Illinois107
(0-7)
97 %
 
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Total Red

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Key stat from last year's 23-21 victory at N. Iowa. UNI QB Theo Day was sacked 4 times in just 23 passing attempts. Zack Annexstad was sacked 0 times in 41 passing attempts. That game was largely won on the line of scrimmage (we protected, they didn't), but I give credit to Zack as well. Zack is a little more mobile and with his quick release in the short passing game he's hard to sack. Zack has the arm to throw deep we just don't try very often. When we've missed on deep balls it's because the WR had a half step on the defender and Zack throws long so that our guy runs it down or nobody does.

Most of the players that got those 4 sacks for us are gone. Vandenburgh, Wilhoit and Lamont are gone. Dinga got the 4th and he's still here. We need Dinga to get his again and then sacks from Abdullah, Gaines and Jackson. 4 to 0 on sacks is a winning number. I'd even settle for 3 to 1.
 

Bird Friend

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UNI offense looks good. ISU defense looks bad. Game’s getting away quickly.
 

Redbird82

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Spack thinks they deserve to get in at 7-4? Not happening, right now they are behind SDSU, SIU, NDSU, YSU, UNI and UND
 
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