NIT Hopes

[bombay]

Amen to the Redbirdwarrior's post. There were some very unrealistic expectations by some people here.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

I was reminded today of a Tweet I put after last year's loss to Wichita in the MVC Final. It simply read, "NIT." I am a firm believer that, for the most part, you are control of your own destiny. Why introduce external opportunities to jack everything up? The only 100% way in is to win the conference tournament. Simple as that. Do that, and you do not have to worry about the bubble or getting snubbed. 9.99999 times out of 10, the NCAA Selection Committee will look for ways to leave out teams like Midd Tenn, ISU, and hell, even St. Mary's now.

I love that Muller has made our non-conference schedule that much more difficult. It tests our guys early and often. Unfortunately though, we are not better off than when Jank was giving us 25+ win seasons and regular NIT berths. Same result. A few MVC Championship losses and to the NIT we go. Don't get me wrong. I am much more proud of what Muller is doing than what Jank did. Muller is TRYING to take the program up a level. Jank was TRYING to inflate his W/L record and move on. One was successful at what they were trying to do, jury is still out on the other.

Middle Tennessee State University was left out of the Tournament because they lost in the quarter-finals against Southern Mississippi who owns an RPI in the 200's Their fault, not the NCAA Tournament Committee's.

Last year Illinois State was left out because they blew a big lead at Murray State with less than a minute to go in the game.They blew a lead at Tulsa in a game that they should have won, and they lost to a lousy San Francisco (RPI in the 200's)

The BIG SECRET to getting an at large bid into the NCAA Tournament for a Mid-Major:
Schedule good teams:
South Carolina, Mississippi, Nevada, BYU, Tulsa, Boise St, Murray State:
Beat some of the good teams you schedule:
South Carolina, OLE MISS, Tulsa (twice)
Don't schedule teams with RPI's over 200
UIC RPI 236
Charleston Southern RPI 261
If you schedule teams with an RPI over 200, DON"T LOSE THE DAMN GAME!!!
Charleston Southern

Illinois State did not get into the NCAA or NIT this year because of the:
Home loss to Charleston Southern
Home loss to Murray State (would have won had Phil Fayne played)
Home loss to Loyola (cost ISU the #2 seed & possibly winning the Tournament)
Needed at least one more win against either Nevada, BYU, or Boise State

None of these were the fault of the NCAA committee.

2018-19 Win all home games;
Make it to the Cayman Island Shootout Championship game;
Do not lose games you are supposed to win;

Illinois State, Not the NCAA Committee, will determine it's destiny.

Replace Illinois State with Alabama or Oklahoma.....is the result the same?

I agree with you completely, Illinois State gave the committee reasons to leave them out. What I'm saying is; why even put the committee in the place to make the decision? With the conference tournament and we have nothing to worry about. Ever.

I am curious how being the #2 seed in STL would have made it more likely for us to beat Loyola? We would have played the same teams except Friday.

Odds of winning Arch Madness since the Championship game moved from Monday night @ 8:30 to Sunday afternoon:

#1 Seed 46% (6 of 13)
#2 Seed 38% (5 of 13)
#3 Seed 7.5% (1 of 13)
#4 Seed 7.5% (1 of 13)

Very difficult to play that game Friday night (which usually does not end until around 11:00PM), then get up and play a game Saturday that doesn't usually end until after 7:00PM, Then play the Championship game at 1:00 on Sunday. And this year was made even more difficult because of the Saturday game going into overtime. Overtime takes a lot out of you Physically, mentally, and emotionally.

Playing as the #2 seed as apposed to the #3 seed increases your odds of winning the championship from 7.5% to 38%. That is a pretty big jump. And say what you want, these numbers don't lie.

 

[JHBird]

Amen to the Redbirdwarrior's post. There were some very unrealistic expectations by some people here.

Early on my expectations were low, but then I got optimistic after seeing Milik play. With him it seemed like we had the talent to win the valley, but injuries held us down and the team never really gelled. Loyola had enough talent and just played a very good disciplined way which we couldn't match.

 

[dpdoughbird06]

Middle Tennessee State University was left out of the Tournament because they lost in the quarter-finals against Southern Mississippi who owns an RPI in the 200's Their fault, not the NCAA Tournament Committee's.

Last year Illinois State was left out because they blew a big lead at Murray State with less than a minute to go in the game.They blew a lead at Tulsa in a game that they should have won, and they lost to a lousy San Francisco (RPI in the 200's)

The BIG SECRET to getting an at large bid into the NCAA Tournament for a Mid-Major:
Schedule good teams:
South Carolina, Mississippi, Nevada, BYU, Tulsa, Boise St, Murray State:
Beat some of the good teams you schedule:
South Carolina, OLE MISS, Tulsa (twice)
Don't schedule teams with RPI's over 200
UIC RPI 236
Charleston Southern RPI 261
If you schedule teams with an RPI over 200, DON"T LOSE THE DAMN GAME!!!
Charleston Southern

Illinois State did not get into the NCAA or NIT this year because of the:
Home loss to Charleston Southern
Home loss to Murray State (would have won had Phil Fayne played)
Home loss to Loyola (cost ISU the #2 seed & possibly winning the Tournament)
Needed at least one more win against either Nevada, BYU, or Boise State

None of these were the fault of the NCAA committee.

2018-19 Win all home games;
Make it to the Cayman Island Shootout Championship game;
Do not lose games you are supposed to win;

Illinois State, Not the NCAA Committee, will determine it's destiny.

Replace Illinois State with Alabama or Oklahoma.....is the result the same?

I agree with you completely, Illinois State gave the committee reasons to leave them out. What I'm saying is; why even put the committee in the place to make the decision? With the conference tournament and we have nothing to worry about. Ever.

I am curious how being the #2 seed in STL would have made it more likely for us to beat Loyola? We would have played the same teams except Friday.

Odds of winning Arch Madness since the Championship game moved from Monday night @ 8:30 to Sunday afternoon:

#1 Seed 46% (6 of 13)
#2 Seed 38% (5 of 13)
#3 Seed 7.5% (1 of 13)
#4 Seed 7.5% (1 of 13)

Very difficult to play that game Friday night (which usually does not end until around 11:00PM), then get up and play a game Saturday that doesn't usually end until after 7:00PM, Then play the Championship game at 1:00 on Sunday. And this year was made even more difficult because of the Saturday game going into overtime. Overtime takes a lot out of you Physically, mentally, and emotionally.

Playing as the #2 seed as apposed to the #3 seed increases your odds of winning the championship from 7.5% to 38%. That is a pretty big jump. And say what you want, these numbers don't lie.

Valid point about the late-to-early tipoff progression taking a toll. When I worked as a manager at Steak n Shake as low man on the totem pole and a fellow manager needed a weekend off I'd get "The Gauntlet": Friday 5 PM - 3 AM (usually even later); Saturday 10 AM - 8 PM; and Sunday 7 AM - 5 PM (rarely did I arrive at 7 AM).

Sunday Ryan was not championship material on these Sundays. Putting your body through three win-or-go-home marathons in as many days is tough enough without further compressing the recovery windows.

 

[bb fan]

Been saying this for years. The 3 seed gets screwed.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

Playing time. He's got 12 other sets of eyes watching. Playing time is his only real leverage and it worked.

No postseason. Yes, it worked great. If only your lips on Dan’s ass could get ISU to an NCAA tournament, then we would be fine.

I couldn’t care less about the NIT. Now when Dan cultures us out of an NCAA bid, I’m gonna be pissed.

Timmy is right, you have to send a message the only way that works, and that is playing time. MY got the message.

That said, us losing the Charleston Southern game probably isn't what kept us from the NIT it was probably the 20pt loss to Nevada, the 18pt loss to Boise St, the 25pt loss to Drake and the 30pt loss to the Sycamores that probably did us in....

I’m looking bigger than Charleston Southern. We can’t afford to give away games. If you prioritize culture over wins, then don’t bitch when we don’t make any postseason ever again.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

Of course, Middle Tenn didn’t make it, so maybe nothing but the autobid game is all that ever matters moving forward.

I was reminded today of a Tweet I put after last year's loss to Wichita in the MVC Final. It simply read, "NIT." I am a firm believer that, for the most part, you are control of your own destiny. Why introduce external opportunities to jack everything up? The only 100% way in is to win the conference tournament. Simple as that. Do that, and you do not have to worry about the bubble or getting snubbed. 9.99999 times out of 10, the NCAA Selection Committee will look for ways to leave out teams like Midd Tenn, ISU, and hell, even St. Mary's now.

I love that Muller has made our non-conference schedule that much more difficult. It tests our guys early and often. Unfortunately though, we are not better off than when Jank was giving us 25+ win seasons and regular NIT berths. Same result. A few MVC Championship losses and to the NIT we go. Don't get me wrong. I am much more proud of what Muller is doing than what Jank did. Muller is TRYING to take the program up a level. Jank was TRYING to inflate his W/L record and move on. One was successful at what they were trying to do, jury is still out on the other.

Middle Tennessee State University was left out of the Tournament because they lost in the quarter-finals against Southern Mississippi who owns an RPI in the 200's Their fault, not the NCAA Tournament Committee's.

Last year Illinois State was left out because they blew a big lead at Murray State with less than a minute to go in the game.They blew a lead at Tulsa in a game that they should have won, and they lost to a lousy San Francisco (RPI in the 200's)

The BIG SECRET to getting an at large bid into the NCAA Tournament for a Mid-Major:
Schedule good teams:
South Carolina, Mississippi, Nevada, BYU, Tulsa, Boise St, Murray State:
Beat some of the good teams you schedule:
South Carolina, OLE MISS, Tulsa (twice)
Don't schedule teams with RPI's over 200
UIC RPI 236
Charleston Southern RPI 261
If you schedule teams with an RPI over 200, DON"T LOSE THE DAMN GAME!!!
Charleston Southern

Illinois State did not get into the NCAA or NIT this year because of the:
Home loss to Charleston Southern
Home loss to Murray State (would have won had Phil Fayne played)
Home loss to Loyola (cost ISU the #2 seed & possibly winning the Tournament)
Needed at least one more win against either Nevada, BYU, or Boise State

None of these were the fault of the NCAA committee.

2018-19 Win all home games;
Make it to the Cayman Island Shootout Championship game;
Do not lose games you are supposed to win;

Illinois State, Not the NCAA Committee, will determine it's destiny.

If by control our own destiny, you mean go undefeated, then okay. That’s about what it would have taken last year. P5s are allowed hiccups. NCAA forgives those. NCAA in firm control at destiny. Reversing the Murray State decision wouldn’t have meant jack.

And Middle Tenn and St. Mary’s didn’t make it because the committee wanted P5s Arizona State and Syracuse in. Simple as that.

 

[Brick]

No postseason. Yes, it worked great. If only your lips on Dan’s ass could get ISU to an NCAA tournament, then we would be fine.

I couldn’t care less about the NIT. Now when Dan cultures us out of an NCAA bid, I’m gonna be pissed.

Timmy is right, you have to send a message the only way that works, and that is playing time. MY got the message.

That said, us losing the Charleston Southern game probably isn't what kept us from the NIT it was probably the 20pt loss to Nevada, the 18pt loss to Boise St, the 25pt loss to Drake and the 30pt loss to the Sycamores that probably did us in....

I’m looking bigger than Charleston Southern. We can’t afford to give away games. If you prioritize culture over wins, then don’t bitch when we don’t make any postseason ever again.

ISU FAN1, again what would you have done with Yarbrough. Yes it probably cost us a game but it’s clear to me that Yarbrough played much harder and much better after that. It’s just as easy to make the point that what Dan did with Yarbrough at that point might have won us a game or two that we might have lost. Not only this past season but very possibly next year as well. We just were not good enough this year with the injuries and Copeland not being eligible to go very far, especially on defense. I fully expect next year to be much different than this year We will play in a tournament.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

Timmy is right, you have to send a message the only way that works, and that is playing time. MY got the message.

That said, us losing the Charleston Southern game probably isn't what kept us from the NIT it was probably the 20pt loss to Nevada, the 18pt loss to Boise St, the 25pt loss to Drake and the 30pt loss to the Sycamores that probably did us in....

I’m looking bigger than Charleston Southern. We can’t afford to give away games. If you prioritize culture over wins, then don’t bitch when we don’t make any postseason ever again.

ISU FAN1, again what would you have done with Yarbrough. Yes it probably cost us a game but it’s clear to me that Yarbrough played much harder and much better after that. It’s just as easy to make the point that what Dan did with Yarbrough at that point might have won us a game or two that we might have lost. Not only this past season but very possibly next year as well. We just were not good enough this year with the injuries and Copeland not being eligible to go very far, especially on defense. I fully expect next year to be much different than this year We will play in a tournament.

Hand him a bus ticket home.

 

[TIMMY]

I’m looking bigger than Charleston Southern. We can’t afford to give away games. If you prioritize culture over wins, then don’t bitch when we don’t make any postseason ever again.

ISU FAN1, again what would you have done with Yarbrough. Yes it probably cost us a game but it’s clear to me that Yarbrough played much harder and much better after that. It’s just as easy to make the point that what Dan did with Yarbrough at that point might have won us a game or two that we might have lost. Not only this past season but very possibly next year as well. We just were not good enough this year with the injuries and Copeland not being eligible to go very far, especially on defense. I fully expect next year to be much different than this year, We will play in a tournament.

Hand him a bus ticket home.

:lol: That's the best you've got? :lol:

 

[SgtHulka]

I’m looking bigger than Charleston Southern. We can’t afford to give away games. If you prioritize culture over wins, then don’t bitch when we don’t make any postseason ever again.

ISU FAN1, again what would you have done with Yarbrough. Yes it probably cost us a game but it’s clear to me that Yarbrough played much harder and much better after that. It’s just as easy to make the point that what Dan did with Yarbrough at that point might have won us a game or two that we might have lost. Not only this past season but very possibly next year as well. We just were not good enough this year with the injuries and Copeland not being eligible to go very far, especially on defense. I fully expect next year to be much different than this year We will play in a tournament.

Hand him a bus ticket home.

Or a plane ticket to Spain

 

[Brick]

I’m looking bigger than Charleston Southern. We can’t afford to give away games. If you prioritize culture over wins, then don’t bitch when we don’t make any postseason ever again.

ISU FAN1, again what would you have done with Yarbrough. Yes it probably cost us a game but it’s clear to me that Yarbrough played much harder and much better after that. It’s just as easy to make the point that what Dan did with Yarbrough at that point might have won us a game or two that we might have lost. Not only this past season but very possibly next year as well. We just were not good enough this year with the injuries and Copeland not being eligible to go very far, especially on defense. I fully expect next year to be much different than this year We will play in a tournament.

Hand him a bus ticket home.

Oh man, this is too good. You are mad at Dan because he may have cost us one game to send a message. But you want to put the kid....a first team all conference player...on a bus and send him home! How many games do you think that would have cost us? Priceless!

 

[Adunk33]

Odds of winning Arch Madness since the Championship game moved from Monday night @ 8:30 to Sunday afternoon:

#1 Seed 46% (6 of 13)
#2 Seed 38% (5 of 13)
#3 Seed 7.5% (1 of 13)
#4 Seed 7.5% (1 of 13)

Very difficult to play that game Friday night (which usually does not end until around 11:00PM), then get up and play a game Saturday that doesn't usually end until after 7:00PM, Then play the Championship game at 1:00 on Sunday. And this year was made even more difficult because of the Saturday game going into overtime. Overtime takes a lot out of you Physically, mentally, and emotionally.

Playing as the #2 seed as apposed to the #3 seed increases your odds of winning the championship from 7.5% to 38%. That is a pretty big jump. And say what you want, these numbers don't lie.

A valid point. Allow me to counter argue. Since 2008, ISU has lost the MVC Title game as a #2 seed, #3 seed, #4 seed, #4 seed, #1 seed, and #3 seed. This suggests that as long as you finish top 4, seeding doesn't really matter. So I take your probabilities, and raise you the NCAA's favorite criteria, the "eye test."

 

[ISU FAN 1]

ISU FAN1, again what would you have done with Yarbrough. Yes it probably cost us a game but it’s clear to me that Yarbrough played much harder and much better after that. It’s just as easy to make the point that what Dan did with Yarbrough at that point might have won us a game or two that we might have lost. Not only this past season but very possibly next year as well. We just were not good enough this year with the injuries and Copeland not being eligible to go very far, especially on defense. I fully expect next year to be much different than this year, We will play in a tournament.

Hand him a bus ticket home.

:lol: That's the best you've got? :lol:

It's been known to work, without producing another digit in the loss column.

Better than your answer to prioritize culture. I get it. Our basketball program is at the stage where much of our fan base has de-emphasized actual on court success. Twenty years of futility has these fans searching for something else to grab hold of to justify continued investment. And culture it is. When does Muller get awarded the culture championship trophy? If we aren't going to actual compete for anything meaningful, then quit wasting time and money.

If you are happy with the status quo, great for you. I'm not.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

ISU FAN1, again what would you have done with Yarbrough. Yes it probably cost us a game but it’s clear to me that Yarbrough played much harder and much better after that. It’s just as easy to make the point that what Dan did with Yarbrough at that point might have won us a game or two that we might have lost. Not only this past season but very possibly next year as well. We just were not good enough this year with the injuries and Copeland not being eligible to go very far, especially on defense. I fully expect next year to be much different than this year We will play in a tournament.

Hand him a bus ticket home.

Oh man, this is too good. You are mad at Dan because he may have cost us one game to send a message. But you want to put the kid....a first team all conference player...on a bus and send him home! How many games do you think that would have cost us? Priceless!

Only if he takes the ticket. Rickie Johnson didn't take it, and that worked out okay. And without any Charleston Southern like losses, he made it to 3 NCAA tourneys.

 

[Adunk33]

Hand him a bus ticket home.

:lol: That's the best you've got? :lol:

When does Muller get awarded the culture championship trophy?

Next season. We're dancing. If not, back to phase one and another 3-5 years for Muller (or whoever) to rebuild the team.

 

[TIMMY]

Hand him a bus ticket home.

Oh man, this is too good. You are mad at Dan because he may have cost us one game to send a message. But you want to put the kid....a first team all conference player...on a bus and send him home! How many games do you think that would have cost us? Priceless!

Only if he takes the ticket. Rickie Johnson didn't take it, and that worked out okay. And without any Charleston Southern like losses, he made it to 3 NCAA tourneys.

It's 2018 not 1985.

 

[SgtHulka]

Oh man, this is too good. You are mad at Dan because he may have cost us one game to send a message. But you want to put the kid....a first team all conference player...on a bus and send him home! How many games do you think that would have cost us? Priceless!

Only if he takes the ticket. Rickie Johnson didn't take it, and that worked out okay. And without any Charleston Southern like losses, he made it to 3 NCAA tourneys.

It's 2018 not 1985.

Told my wife to get in the kitchen and make me a sammich pronto. Worked for my dad.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

Oh man, this is too good. You are mad at Dan because he may have cost us one game to send a message. But you want to put the kid....a first team all conference player...on a bus and send him home! How many games do you think that would have cost us? Priceless!

Only if he takes the ticket. Rickie Johnson didn't take it, and that worked out okay. And without any Charleston Southern like losses, he made it to 3 NCAA tourneys.

It's 2018 not 1985.

I could make the same claim to your withholding playing time argument that was also used in that era. Just cling to culture, and the warm and fuzzy it gives you. Only underachievers can be happy mediocrity. Enjoy.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

:lol: That's the best you've got? :lol:

When does Muller get awarded the culture championship trophy?

Next season. We're dancing. If not, back to phase one and another 3-5 years for Muller (or whoever) to rebuild the team.

And below 4,000 attendance