ISUb @ ISUr

[jbird]

Illinois State - 16.0

Over / under 49.5

Where do these point spread lines come from? I'm trying to negotiate a bet with a Salukis booster for our game there on Oct. 14th, and he wants me to give him a ridiculous amount of points. If I could find an objective point spread line, it would help my cause.

I would like to revise and extend my remarks........as they say in the legislature........to clarify that my inquiry into a point spread was not for a typical "wager" scenario. In my circumstances, the for entertainment purposes only point spread is used as a tool in a fun fundraising opportunity; neither party "wins" a dime (or more). The SIU booster, who is a friend of mine, and I have an agreed-upon charitable organization to which the "loser" donates the modest amount at play. Neither of us receive any reportable income from the fundraising opportunity, and the income to the charitable organization is accounted for and reported along with all other donations that it receives.

 

[cpacmel]

jbird, check your PM's

 

[fourthandshort]

Illinois State - 16.0

Over / under 49.5

Where do these point spread lines come from? I'm trying to negotiate a bet with a Salukis booster for our game there on Oct. 14th, and he wants me to give him a ridiculous amount of points. If I could find an objective point spread line, it would help my cause.

I would like to revise and extend my remarks........as they say in the legislature........to clarify that my inquiry into a point spread was not for a typical "wager" scenario. In my circumstances, the for entertainment purposes only point spread is used as a tool in a fun fundraising opportunity; neither party "wins" a dime (or more). The SIU booster, who is a friend of mine, and I have an agreed-upon charitable organization to which the "loser" donates the modest amount at play. Neither of us receive any reportable income from the fundraising opportunity, and the income to the charitable organization is accounted for and reported along with all other donations that it receives.

save it for the judge ... and the IRS !!

 

[birds_will_b_dancing]

disagree .. Kolbe looks much more comfortable in the pocket this year. And I would take Kolbe without so much as even a thought over any QBs on EIU and MoST. "Flair" doesn't get it done in MVFC .. "flair" gets crap beat out of it regularly. MoST QB has 4 TDs 7 Picks, lowest QBR in MVFC and averages 2.2 yards per carry.

You trolling ?

here we go.......Say something against Kolbe and you're a troll, was just SteveO observations...Kolbe looks 1000% better this season but he still locks into his receivers on roll outs..but the long game, he is spot on. Nothing wrong with Broadnex coming in and keeping the defence honest. Hope you are doing well Fourthandshort.

not true.

First. i noted specifically where I disagreed with him .. and 90% or more of ISU fans would agree with me.

Second, he said something that made no sense (envious of 2 QBs "flair" even though they suck) and then even contradicted his own point about the MoST QB noting how we shut him down.

If you're going to have an opinion that is counter to what most people think, at least support it with something logical or remotely debatable. Hence, my troll comment.

Kolbe is playing well this year, despite playing behind 4.5 new OL .. not to mention, we have 2 new starters this year who are already injured and missing time. Yet we rank 16th in FCS in total yards per game and 13th is yards per play .. and sit 4-0 having played well enough to blow out all 4 teams .. InSU was a blowout type game that slipped away ... 3 times inside their 8 for zero points, or we would have been up 40 points at half. Then we put game on ice in Q4 after some Q3 issues.

Lest we forget, we're 4-0 and we've easily beaten 2 teams we lost to a year ago .. and with 4.5 new OL and 2 injured OL. Here's another state line for the last 2 games .. our RBs are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry the last 2 games. And Kolbe had his 2 best passing days throwing for 650 yards and about 170% QBR, despite a struggling run game these past 2 days.

Kolbe is doing quite well if you ask me.

4.5 new oline men? I'm not sure how you get .5. Either one of the guys on the oline now was a starter last year or there was not.

 

[cpacmel]

4.5 new oline men? I'm not sure how you get .5. Either one of the guys on the oline now was a starter last year or there was not.

What if a guy started on the O-Line but only for the last 5-6 games? :think:

 

[birds_will_b_dancing]

4.5 new oline men? I'm not sure how you get .5. Either one of the guys on the oline now was a starter last year or there was not.

What if a guy started on the O-Line but only for the last 5-6 games? :think:

Then he would be a starter. How many games does one need to start to be considered a starter. lol

 

[fourthandshort]

So for those that missed this on other posts, there is really cool website that shares spreadsheets of some data .. it tracked lost starters (by game count) and lost productivity (i.e. tackles, pass yards, rush yards, reception yards) for each position group for every D-I team .. FBS and FCS. This is includes anyone who graduated, left program, or even got injured.

Here is snapshot I created for MVFC and our game schedule. There is more detailed data available than this summary.

G H/A Opp - Lost Starters off def tot tckls
1 H Butler 5.7 3.7 9.4 45%
2 A Eastern Illinois 4.8 4.3 9.1 41%
3 A Missouri State 3.0 1.7 4.7 27%
4 H Indiana State 6.3 5.4 11.7 43%
5 A Northern Arizona 3.7 6.9 10.6 50%
6 A Southern Illinois 3.5 4.5 8.0 27%
7 H South Dakota 2.5 5.6 8.1 40%
8 A Youngstown State 2.9 7.1 10.0 59%
9 H Western Illinois 3.3 1.0 4.3 7%
10 A South Dakota State 1.8 4.9 6.7 38%
11 H North Dakota State 4.4 2.9 7.3 26%
- - Northern Iowa 4.7 3.4 8.1 36%
- - Illinois State 6.3 3.1 9.4 32%

So using ISU as example, we lost 6.3 offensive and 3.1 defensive starters of 11 positions across entire season. The more detailed data would have disclosed position group lost starters and productivity as follows: we lost 0% of QB starts and production, lost 74% of RB production, 39% of WR, and 90% of OL ... so with 5 OL starters x 90% lost starts .. we lost 4.5 OL starters.

Opponent RUSH PASS QB RB WR OL Lost
Illinois State 157 229 0% 74% 39% 90% 6.3

Defense used lost starts and tackles .. most of our 3.1 starters lost and tackles lost were at LB.

For coming week .. note NAU lost starters and productivity above. QB position is misleading because their starter was out 3 or 4 games last year .. so the starter is back, but his replacement last year is not.

Hope this helps .. great website: http://www.keepratings.net

But they took down the lost starter/production info .. apparently because we're now 5 weeks into season. I wish they would just freeze the data and leave up. I kept the original version of spreadsheet from before season started.

 

[cpacmel]

4.5 new oline men? I'm not sure how you get .5. Either one of the guys on the oline now was a starter last year or there was not.

What if a guy started on the O-Line but only for the last 5-6 games? :think:

Then he would be a starter. How many games does one need to start to be considered a starter. lol

So Tristan Smith is a starter now at QB? Because he started one game for us last year when Kolbe was hurt?

I think when people think of starters it’s the guys who won the job or played themselves into starters.

If they