2019 Arch Madness Seeding

[ricohill]

gobirds85, I think that Loyola, and even Drake would finish higher than any middle of the road / .500ish P5 conference team that will get a totally undeserved at large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Loyola is nearly the same team that went to the final four last year, beating some P5's along the way. I see little difference this season. I don't give a crap what cooked #'s du jour are the P5's.

The Valley has an amazing first round tournament record. That is FACT. Valley entries have beating several of the P5's doing so for several years in a row. The Valley has had 2 ff teams in the last 5 years, something some P5's can't say. Gobirds85, that is factual and as succinct as I can possibly be.

Keep pitching those numbers. They don't reflect what really, factually happens. I have not dodged anybodies' questions or points. I am taking them head on. As other posters have. If you want to keep buyin' their crap numbers, go ahead.

Also, you do know one of those 2 final four teams no longer is in the league?

Loyola is a far different (worse) team than last year and it is not because or competitive balance in the MVC.

 

[bb fan]

NO CRAP?

Wichita left, Rico? When did that happen

Then the AAC should get all the credit. And after all that happened a couple of years go, so it doesn't count, now. Or does it? A few posters make this so confusing, sometimes

 

[jamminjamarsmiley]

And bb fan... IF i understand your argument, the NET/RPI ratings are skewed to protect the power5/6? Lets look at NET.

14. Buffalo
15. Wofford
24. Nevada
30. Utah St.
36. VCU
38. St. Marys
44. Furman
45. Belmont
46. Lipscomb
47. New Mexico St.
50. Murray St.

So 11 of the top 50 schools are what I consider "mid-major" or at least on the same level as what ISU should be on. The problem is not the ranking system - it's the MVC teams' results.

 

[ricohill]

And bb fan... IF i understand your argument, the NET/RPI ratings are skewed to protect the power5/6? Lets look at NET.

14. Buffalo
15. Wofford
24. Nevada
30. Utah St.
36. VCU
38. St. Marys
44. Furman
45. Belmont
46. Lipscomb
47. New Mexico St.
50. Murray St.

So 11 of the top 50 schools are what I consider "mid-major" or at least on the same level as what ISU should be on. The problem is not the ranking system - it's the MVC teams' results.

:text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1:

THANK YOU!!!!

 

[gobirds85]

And bb fan... IF i understand your argument, the NET/RPI ratings are skewed to protect the power5/6? Lets look at NET.

14. Buffalo
15. Wofford
24. Nevada
30. Utah St.
36. VCU
38. St. Marys
44. Furman
45. Belmont
46. Lipscomb
47. New Mexico St.
50. Murray St.

So 11 of the top 50 schools are what I consider "mid-major" or at least on the same level as what ISU should be on. The problem is not the ranking system - it's the MVC teams' results.

Not to nit pick but you missed one more...#1 Gonzaga.

 

[V Boy]

Don’t like the draw for ISU.

Guessing Evansville game will be close and we could lose.

Going to be tough to beat Drake 3 times.

If we beat Drake our legs will be toast for probably a well rested SIU after they torch UNI. Would be shocked if we get by the Salukis there.

At mid-major level it is more difficult to win 4 in row than high Major. The athletes are not same level. High Major guards and players are going to hit jump shots in game 3 and game 4. Mid-Major shooting percentage is going to be lower. And to win 4 in a row we are going to have to shoot it well 4 games in row.

 

[stats]

By looking at RPI, which has now been calculated for the 38th year has the following.
Loyola ahead of 6 teams in the ACC, 1 in the Big East, 2 in the big 10 and ahead of 3 in the SEC.
Drake ahead of 7 teams in the ACC, 6 in the Big 10, ahead of 7 in the SEC, and ahead of 5 in the Big East.

By using the RPI, you are correct but do really think Drake could compete against the upper portion of the ACC? Could they hang with Tennessee, Kentucky, Miss St in the SEC?

And do you think Drake or Loyola has a shot at an at large bid this year? If you do you would be the only one preaching that crap. Hell, man, good luck with that.

By no means am I saying Loyola or Drake would be in the upper portion of the any of those conferences. I never said that or implied that. I was actually looking for some interesting Arch Madness news and read you posted that Loyola would finish dead last in the Big 10, ACC, SEC whatever. I'm just pointing out that is highly unlikely. If you really believe that, you should be on the NCAA tournament committee.

Be honest, no one took Loyola seriously last year. They had a great season and could they hang with Tennessee? If you mean over a season, almost no one could. Could they beat them in a game? They did last year, a week after Tennessee was in the SEC championship game. They also knocked out an ACC team, a BIG !2 team and Nevada who I think was pre-season number 5 in the country. So who knows what could happen at the end of the season.

It is easy to say that this was the worst non-conference season that I remember the Valley having. It is also easy to say there is no dominant team this year. Loyola is down 3 games in the conference from last year. Missouri State is 3 games better. Everyone else in the conference is about the same as last year.

Going into the season I thought we had about a 40% chance of making the NCAA tournament. I had my meltdown a few weeks ago and figured it dropped to about 10%. I still see it as 10%. I'm going to have a good time in St, Louis regardless.

 

[gobirds85]

By looking at RPI, which has now been calculated for the 38th year has the following.
Loyola ahead of 6 teams in the ACC, 1 in the Big East, 2 in the big 10 and ahead of 3 in the SEC.
Drake ahead of 7 teams in the ACC, 6 in the Big 10, ahead of 7 in the SEC, and ahead of 5 in the Big East.

By using the RPI, you are correct but do really think Drake could compete against the upper portion of the ACC? Could they hang with Tennessee, Kentucky, Miss St in the SEC?

And do you think Drake or Loyola has a shot at an at large bid this year? If you do you would be the only one preaching that crap. Hell, man, good luck with that.

By no means am I saying Loyola or Drake would be in the upper portion of the any of those conferences. I never said that or implied that. I was actually looking for some interesting Arch Madness news and read you posted that Loyola would finish dead last in the Big 10, ACC, SEC whatever. I'm just pointing out that is highly unlikely. If you really believe that, you should be on the NCAA tournament committee.

Be honest, no one took Loyola seriously last year. They had a great season and could they hang with Tennessee? If you mean over a season, almost no one could. Could they beat them in a game? They did last year, a week after Tennessee was in the SEC championship game. They also knocked out an ACC team, a BIG !2 team and Nevada who I think was pre-season number 5 in the country. So who knows what could happen at the end of the season.

It is easy to say that this was the worst non-conference season that I remember the Valley having. It is also easy to say there is no dominant team this year. Loyola is down 3 games in the conference from last year. Missouri State is 3 games better. Everyone else in the conference is about the same as last year.

Going into the season I thought we had about a 40% chance of making the NCAA tournament. I had my meltdown a few weeks ago and figured it dropped to about 10%. I still see it as 10%. I'm going to have a good time in St, Louis regardless.

I don’t think we need a committee. Have someone develop a program with various metrics and algorithms regarding wins, home and away, margin, etc etc etc and screw the eye test. The non power schools get screwed on that all the time. When the data is collected allow the program to spit out the at the large bids along with their seeds. We all know that won’t happen. Objectivity will never be allowed.

Once again, Loyola’s run was awesome last year. I enjoyed watching them progress to the FF but this year’s team isn’t as good as last year’s version. They just aren’t.

We have a shot but I think 10% is being optimistic. Coming out of Friday, maybe. But since we have been relegated to a Thursday night start I’m thinking closer to 5%. I would love to see us cut down the nets on Sunday but we have our work cut out for us. Here’s to a few weeks of decreased productivity.

Go Birds!!!

 

[Red Rocker]

According to these Vegas odds we have a 4.5% chance to win. Interestingly Bradley higher than MSU and Valpo higher than Ind St.

Drake 17.4%
Loyola-Chi. 30.7%
Missouri St 8.2%
S Illinois 15.9%
Bradley 8.6%
Illinois St. 4.5%
N Iowa 7.7%
Indiana St 2.5%
Valparaiso 2.9%
Evansville 1.5%

 

[stats]

According to these Vegas odds we have a 4.5% chance to win. Interestingly Bradley higher than MSU and Valpo higher than Ind St.

Drake 17.4%
Loyola-Chi. 30.7%
Missouri St 8.2%
S Illinois 15.9%
Bradley 8.6%
Illinois St. 4.5%
N Iowa 7.7%
Indiana St 2.5%
Valparaiso 2.9%
Evansville 1.5%

If I were a gambler, I would place a 35 to 1 bet on Indiana State. I would place a 19 to 1 on the Birds. I would also place an 11 to 1 on Northern Iowa.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

According to these Vegas odds we have a 4.5% chance to win. Interestingly Bradley higher than MSU and Valpo higher than Ind St.

Drake 17.4%
Loyola-Chi. 30.7%
Missouri St 8.2%
S Illinois 15.9%
Bradley 8.6%
Illinois St. 4.5%
N Iowa 7.7%
Indiana St 2.5%
Valparaiso 2.9%
Evansville 1.5%

If I were a gambler, I would place a 35 to 1 bet on Indiana State. I would place a 19 to 1 on the Birds. I would also place an 11 to 1 on Northern Iowa.

Are there odds for ISU to show (2nd)?

 

[ISU FAN 1]

Try not to over think it Dan, it’s just an extra one and done game.

"I've never played on Thursday as a player or coach, so I don't know how it feels or works," said Muller after ISU's 72-63 loss at Southern Illinois on Saturday. "I don't even know when we leave."

https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/illinois-state/thursday-at-mvc-tourney-new-experience-for-redbirds/article_46adf4a5-9de4-50c6-a7fa-41e6f43b304d.html

 

[DoubleDeuce]

Just three more sleeps until heading down to watch what should be one crazy tournament! Basketball, friends and great times lie ahead!

 

[V Boy]

Try not to over think it Dan, it’s just an extra one and done game.

"I've never played on Thursday as a player or coach, so I don't know how it feels or works," said Muller after ISU's 72-63 loss at Southern Illinois on Saturday. "I don't even know when we leave."

https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/illinois-state/thursday-at-mvc-tourney-new-experience-for-redbirds/article_46adf4a5-9de4-50c6-a7fa-41e6f43b304d.html

I think you’re missing the point. He’s giving you perspective on his broader record of consistently being in the top 6, which he wants you to be impressed by and to cut him some slack.

 

[birdlife]

And bb fan... IF i understand your argument, the NET/RPI ratings are skewed to protect the power5/6? Lets look at NET.

14. Buffalo
15. Wofford
24. Nevada
30. Utah St.
36. VCU
38. St. Marys
44. Furman
45. Belmont
46. Lipscomb
47. New Mexico St.
50. Murray St.

So 11 of the top 50 schools are what I consider "mid-major" or at least on the same level as what ISU should be on. The problem is not the ranking system - it's the MVC teams' results.

i agree this looks like its doing what it was designed to do, in bringing the good mid-majors into the conversation.
BUT - the committee still has to show me they're willing to use this metric to put these teams in the tournament if they dont win their conference tourney.

 

[SgtHulka]

Just three more sleeps

spoken like a true (grand)parent

 

[ISU FAN 1]

Try not to over think it Dan, it’s just an extra one and done game.

"I've never played on Thursday as a player or coach, so I don't know how it feels or works," said Muller after ISU's 72-63 loss at Southern Illinois on Saturday. "I don't even know when we leave."

https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/illinois-state/thursday-at-mvc-tourney-new-experience-for-redbirds/article_46adf4a5-9de4-50c6-a7fa-41e6f43b304d.html

I think you’re missing the point. He’s giving you perspective on his broader record of consistently being in the top 6, which he wants you to be impressed by and to cut him some slack.

I’ve cut him plenty of slack. Two halfcourt bank shots from playing for a title last Saturday. I recognized the shitty luck we’ve had. Also not blind to the luck we have made for ourselves at times by not showing up. Yes, we underachieved, but it’s not too late to make that ancient and irrelevant history this weekend. The MVC still sucks, and the team that shows up is going to get that 15th seed. May as well be ISU. My dream bracket is for that 3rd shot at BU.

 

[Chicagobirdfan]

By looking at RPI, which has now been calculated for the 38th year has the following.
Loyola ahead of 6 teams in the ACC, 1 in the Big East, 2 in the big 10 and ahead of 3 in the SEC.
Drake ahead of 7 teams in the ACC, 6 in the Big 10, ahead of 7 in the SEC, and ahead of 5 in the Big East.

By using the RPI, you are correct but do really think Drake could compete against the upper portion of the ACC? Could they hang with Tennessee, Kentucky, Miss St in the SEC?

And do you think Drake or Loyola has a shot at an at large bid this year? If you do you would be the only one preaching that crap. Hell, man, good luck with that.

By no means am I saying Loyola or Drake would be in the upper portion of the any of those conferences. I never said that or implied that. I was actually looking for some interesting Arch Madness news and read you posted that Loyola would finish dead last in the Big 10, ACC, SEC whatever. I'm just pointing out that is highly unlikely. If you really believe that, you should be on the NCAA tournament committee.

Be honest, no one took Loyola seriously last year. They had a great season and could they hang with Tennessee? If you mean over a season, almost no one could. Could they beat them in a game? They did last year, a week after Tennessee was in the SEC championship game. They also knocked out an ACC team, a BIG !2 team and Nevada who I think was pre-season number 5 in the country. So who knows what could happen at the end of the season.

It is easy to say that this was the worst non-conference season that I remember the Valley having. It is also easy to say there is no dominant team this year. Loyola is down 3 games in the conference from last year. Missouri State is 3 games better. Everyone else in the conference is about the same as last year.

Going into the season I thought we had about a 40% chance of making the NCAA tournament. I had my meltdown a few weeks ago and figured it dropped to about 10%. I still see it as 10%. I'm going to have a good time in St, Louis regardless.

I am usually beating the drum of the MVC being underrated and could field a team or a 2 that would be upper half of big conferences. However, this year, I completely disagree.

While small sample size, Loyola (our best team) got their chance against a lower level ACC team (BC) and got beat handily on a neutral court. Our other team tied for first (drake) got beat by 30 against a team in lower half of PAC 12. I do not believe given a bigger sample size, we would see our teams over .500 in these conferences especially given the 0fer against quad 1 teams.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

By using the RPI, you are correct but do really think Drake could compete against the upper portion of the ACC? Could they hang with Tennessee, Kentucky, Miss St in the SEC?

And do you think Drake or Loyola has a shot at an at large bid this year? If you do you would be the only one preaching that crap. Hell, man, good luck with that.

By no means am I saying Loyola or Drake would be in the upper portion of the any of those conferences. I never said that or implied that. I was actually looking for some interesting Arch Madness news and read you posted that Loyola would finish dead last in the Big 10, ACC, SEC whatever. I'm just pointing out that is highly unlikely. If you really believe that, you should be on the NCAA tournament committee.

Be honest, no one took Loyola seriously last year. They had a great season and could they hang with Tennessee? If you mean over a season, almost no one could. Could they beat them in a game? They did last year, a week after Tennessee was in the SEC championship game. They also knocked out an ACC team, a BIG !2 team and Nevada who I think was pre-season number 5 in the country. So who knows what could happen at the end of the season.

It is easy to say that this was the worst non-conference season that I remember the Valley having. It is also easy to say there is no dominant team this year. Loyola is down 3 games in the conference from last year. Missouri State is 3 games better. Everyone else in the conference is about the same as last year.

Going into the season I thought we had about a 40% chance of making the NCAA tournament. I had my meltdown a few weeks ago and figured it dropped to about 10%. I still see it as 10%. I'm going to have a good time in St, Louis regardless.

I am usually beating the drum of the MVC being underrated and could field a team or a 2 that would be upper half of big conferences. However, this year, I completely disagree.

While small sample size, Loyola (our best team) got their chance against a lower level ACC team (BC) and got beat handily on a neutral court. Our other team tied for first (drake) got beat by 30 against a team in lower half of PAC 12. I do not believe given a bigger sample size, we would see our teams over .500 in these conferences especially given the 0fer against quad 1 teams.

MVC lacks any semblance of a marquee team, as evidenced by MVC projection for 15th seed. Nobody has really stepped up in the absence of WSU and Creighton. We’ll see if Loyola can sustain, and build off last year. Other than that hope, the MVC teams have essentially gone from 3 thru 10 mediocre to bad team quality to 1 thru 10.

 

[V Boy]

Try not to over think it Dan, it’s just an extra one and done game.



https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/college/illinois-state/thursday-at-mvc-tourney-new-experience-for-redbirds/article_46adf4a5-9de4-50c6-a7fa-41e6f43b304d.html

I think you’re missing the point. He’s giving you perspective on his broader record of consistently being in the top 6, which he wants you to be impressed by and to cut him some slack.

I’ve cut him plenty of slack. Two halfcourt bank shots from playing for a title last Saturday. I recognized the shitty luck we’ve had. Also not blind to the luck we have made for ourselves at times by not showing up. Yes, we underachieved, but it’s not too late to make that ancient and irrelevant history this weekend. The MVC still sucks, and the team that shows up is going to get that 15th seed. May as well be ISU. My dream bracket is for that 3rd shot at BU.

It’s not going to be ISU. They are who we thought they were.

For ISU to win this tournament Copeland and Jefferson would have to be much better and farther along than what you see right now.....especially defensively.

Best strategy for Muller right now would be to just pound Evansville and Drake inside with Fayne, Yarb and occasionally Rey.....and to sit in that zone all night Thursday and Friday. If you see us jacking a bunch of 3s just turn your TV off and get back to work.

Can’t believe I keep writing on this board. Been doing it for like 15 years...::to what end? A 15-seed?

College hoops has come and gone and left ISU in the rear-view mirror.