Will the Valley get 4 teams in? How about 5?

[saxman210]

Interesting look at the remaining schedules of the contenders and not the pretenders in MVFC. I’ve penciled in what I THINK the result would be in each game and put in parentheses what their final record would be:

NDSU (12-0):
NDSU @ YSU (W)
WIU @ NDSU (W)
USD @ NDSU (W)
NDSU @ SIU (W)

SDSU (10-2):
SDSU @ MOST (W)
BIRDS @ SDSU (W)
UNI @ SDSU (W)
SDSU @ USD (W)

BIRDS(8-4):
UNI @ BIRDS (W)
BIRDS @ SDSU (L)
MOST @ BIRDS (W)
BIRDS @ YSU (L)

UNI (7-5):
UNI @ BIRDS (L)
INST @ UNI (W)
UNI @ SDSU (L)
WIU @ UNI (W)

YSU (8-4):
NDSU @ YSU (L)
YSU @ USD (W)
YSU @ INST (W)
BIRDS @ YSU (W)

SIU (7-5):
SIU @ INST (W)
MOST @ SIU (W)
SIU @ WIU (W)
NDSU @ SIU (L)

I’d sure like to be wrong about us losing at the penguin palace. And I really hope we beat UNI at home this week, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

Let’s discuss.

 

[Manchester Matt]

I don’t see any scenario where the Valley gets less than four.

I’m thinking five. SIU is going to be very attractive if they get to 7-5.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

Interesting look at the remaining schedules of the contenders and not the pretenders in MVFC. I’ve penciled in what I THINK the result would be in each game and put in parentheses what their final record would be:

NDSU (12-0):
NDSU @ YSU (W)
WIU @ NDSU (W)
USD @ NDSU (W)
NDSU @ SIU (W)

SDSU (10-2):
SDSU @ MOST (W)
BIRDS @ SDSU (W)
UNI @ SDSU (W)
SDSU @ USD (W)

BIRDS(8-4):
UNI @ BIRDS (W)
BIRDS @ SDSU (L)
MOST @ BIRDS (W)
BIRDS @ YSU (L)

UNI (7-5):
UNI @ BIRDS (L)
INST @ UNI (W)
UNI @ SDSU (L)
WIU @ UNI (W)

YSU (8-4):
NDSU @ YSU (L)
YSU @ USD (W)
YSU @ INST (W)
BIRDS @ YSU (W)

SIU (7-5):
SIU @ INST (W)
MOST @ SIU (W)
SIU @ WIU (W)
NDSU @ SIU (L)

I’d sure like to be wrong about us losing at the penguin palace. And I really hope we beat UNI at home this week, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

Let’s discuss.

I think YSU trips up and some how goes 7-5. If that happens, and SIU is also 7-5, SIU totally gets the nod. Blowout win over FBS. However, in your scenario I think SIU gets left out due to recency-bias. YSU/UNI are known commodities. 5 may be pushing it...though now seeing it play out, could be a possibility.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Interesting look at the remaining schedules of the contenders and not the pretenders in MVFC. I’ve penciled in what I THINK the result would be in each game and put in parentheses what their final record would be:

NDSU (12-0):
NDSU @ YSU (W)
WIU @ NDSU (W)
USD @ NDSU (W)
NDSU @ SIU (W)

SDSU (10-2):
SDSU @ MOST (W)
BIRDS @ SDSU (W)
UNI @ SDSU (W)
SDSU @ USD (W)

BIRDS(8-4):
UNI @ BIRDS (W)
BIRDS @ SDSU (L)
MOST @ BIRDS (W)
BIRDS @ YSU (L)

UNI (7-5):
UNI @ BIRDS (L)
INST @ UNI (W)
UNI @ SDSU (L)
WIU @ UNI (W)

YSU (8-4):
NDSU @ YSU (L)
YSU @ USD (W)
YSU @ INST (W)
BIRDS @ YSU (W)

SIU (7-5):
SIU @ INST (W)
MOST @ SIU (W)
SIU @ WIU (W)
NDSU @ SIU (L)

I’d sure like to be wrong about us losing at the penguin palace. And I really hope we beat UNI at home this week, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

Let’s discuss.

I think YSU trips up and some how goes 7-5. If that happens, and SIU is also 7-5, SIU totally gets the nod. Blowout win over FBS. However, in your scenario I think SIU gets left out due to recency-bias. YSU/UNI are known commodities. 5 may be pushing it...though now seeing it play out, could be a possibility.

SIU also has an FBS loss, in addition to the win at UMASS.

I like the fact the Salukis are hot. Makes our road win there look pretty impressive on the resume.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

I don’t have the confidence that Brady Davis can lead the Redbirds to victories over UNI, SDSU, or YSU. I see 7-5 with zero quality wins.

 

[fourthandshort]

Spack always seems to match up and prepare well for YSU games. He's had sporadic success against UNI. But UNI is at home and YSU is on road .

But YSU seems to struggle most years later in season (except their Natty runs 2016 season obviously) .. the war of attrition in MVFC usually takes a toll on them. I follow AGS pretty regularly .. the YSU fans all talk about what a bad recruiter Pelini is ... he can coach (defense for sure anyway) and will take a lot of transfers to shore up their holes. But they have very little depth. So I think playing them in game 12 will be to our advantage .. even on road.

UNI is THE wildcard team in MVFC .. some weeks they look top 10, other weeks not so much. Uh ... rings very familiar with our Redbirds the last 3 seasons (excl 2019 so far).

Spacks focus on not losing games we should win has worked well enough so far ... and in hindsight s a pretty good formula this year in particular with bottom third of MVFC weaker than it has ever been this decade.

Anyway, as of today, ti would seem MVFC is a lock for 4 teams ... but SIU, USD, and YSU could sneak into playoffs with a 7-5 record. Lot of top 25 playoff caliber teams out there with 3 or 4 losses already. The bubble will be deep this year with 5 loss teams.

MVFC better get its share this year .. three 6-4 teams makde playoffs last year, our 6-4 tema (ISUb) did not ... it made no sense given MVFC playoff track record in last decade. I don;t care one iota that the lower third is weaker than usual ... that never seemed to matter all those year Colonial and Big Sky got more bids than us with weaker SOSs.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

unfortunately I see 7-5 just as likely as an 8-4 record. My prediction

big loss vs SDSU

loss vs Uni

toss up (if I had to pick it would be the home team) vs YSU

big win vs Mo State

The lack of passing game will be troubling against solid competition.


Guestimate of last 4 game record probabilities:

1-3 37.5%
2-2 35%
3-1 17.5%
0-4 7.5%
4-0 5%

 

[MadBird]

I don't have a great feeling about YSU, but the record book says we've won our last two trips over there, in fact shut them out in 2017. And we've won 4 of the last 5 meetings overall - not sure whether that means they're due, or we're beginning to have our way with them.

We've won our last three home games vs. UNI, including a playoff game at home a month after they beat us in the regular season in 2014. They're almost always tough, seems to me. Glad we get them here.

Playoff football already!

 

[fourthandshort]

I just thinking given we have 4 games, with 2 road and 2 home ... of the 2 games with outcomes most in doubt, I'm very glad its UNI at home and YSU on road .. would prefer both were at home, but theyre not. Of the 2 with outcomes least in doubt, I'm glad SDSU is road and MoST is home. This sets up best to ensure we win at least 2 of 4 ... in theory. And I do believe we can beat UNI at home this year ... I think we have better than 50/50 chance to win that game. Their offense also struggles for consistency and we're better in red zone. We just need to be ready to mix it up on offense, or Robinson is in for long day ... they are very stout against the run !

 

[Birdland]

Guestimate of last 4 game record probabilities:

1-3 37.5%
2-2 35%
3-1 17.5%
0-4 7.5%
4-0 5%

That's 102.5%.

 

[fourthandshort]

Guestimate of last 4 game record probabilities:

1-3 37.5%
2-2 35%
3-1 17.5%
0-4 7.5%
4-0 5%

That's 102.5%.

good catch ... thats far short of the 110% Spack expects of our boys .... damn it, someone find the missing 7.5% .. playoffs are at stake here !!!!

:mrgreen:

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Guestimate of last 4 game record probabilities:

1-3 37.5%
2-2 35%
3-1 17.5%
0-4 7.5%
4-0 5%

That's 102.5%.

you are right, bad math...thanks

try this

1-3 37.5%
2-2 35%
3-1 15%
0-4 7.5%
4-0 5%

 

[DaveBird10]

Wonder how much SDSU losing their qb J'Bore Gibbs affects them coming up. He left Saturday's game with a knee injury.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

 

[J0K3R2]

Wonder how much SDSU losing their qb J'Bore Gibbs affects them coming up. He left Saturday's game with a knee injury.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

A few Jacks fans over on /r/fcs are pretty worried. They’re throwing a true freshman out there now (whose name escapes me) and they’re pretty much gonna be running on their ground game and defense. They’re certainly more beatable now than they were before Gibbs went down, but a wicked tough matchup nonetheless.

 

[fourthandshort]

SDSU has a lot back from last year and does almost everything well .. so they had an easy time reloading this year and have hit the ground running. They would be scary good if they had a healthy veteran QB. So it certainly improves our chances that we'll see the true FR instead of the RS FR that won the job. But they are loaded and have other more established skill players .. WR Cade Johnson (4.4 rcpts and 84 yards per game, and RB Pierre Strong (110 ypg and 8 ypc) are both candidates for Walter Payton PLayer of Year ... these 2 combined with QB Christion were all getting votes a year ago. QB Gibbs was in upper half of QB in MVFC but wasn't relied on to throw a lot because they run so well.

Here's ther QB stats for their NDSU loss ...

PASSING Cmp-Att-Int Yds TD Long Sack
Kanin Nelson 2-9-0 13 0 8 1
J'Bore Gibbs 3-5-0 70 0 34 1
Keaton Heide 2-3-1 27 0 9 2
Totals... 7-17-1 110 0 34 4

Nelson is a JR and was the #2 going into last game and apparently struggled (or got banged up ??), and so FR Heide played as well ... so we'll see if it is the JR or true FR in 2 weeks.

But their run game is very strong (avg 6 ypc), and as good as Pierre Strong is, they have other guys who do well ... so guessing their OL is strong.

RUSHING GP Att Gain Loss Net Avg TD Long Avg/G
Pierre Strong 8 110 895 19 876 8.0 6 64 109.5
C.J. Wilson 7 52 379 5 374 7.2 2 52 53.4
Mikey Daniel 8 48 236 9 227 4.7 4 28 28.4
Cade Johnson 8 5 120 1 119 23.8 0 76 14.9 .. keep an on this WR for jet sweeps or trick plays in backfield .. he is a stud.
J'Bore Gibbs 6 35 167 79 88 2.5 4 63 14.7

Assuming their playbook will be skinnied down, that can only help ... but they are very good. Their 7 point loss to Minnesota has aged very well .. they are 7-0 and top 15 currently. Combined wit their 7 point loss to NDSU .... they have 2 very high quality losses .. hence their 6-2 is way stronger resume than our 6-2.

On the plus side of comparative scores .. they beat SIU by 18 at home, we beat SIU by 14 on road a week later; they beat ISUb by 19 on road, we beat ISUb by 17 at home a week later.

But this week, we will have our hands full with UNI ...

 

[cpacmel]

Wonder how much SDSU losing their qb J'Bore Gibbs affects them coming up. He left Saturday's game with a knee injury.

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He’s out for the season. Big blow for the Jacks

 

[Chi-bird]

I think that winner of the UNI - ISU game this weekend will make the playoffs while the loser may sit out.

I, feel better about our chances at YSU then I do this Saturday.

Through 8 games this season, seven times we’ve been held to less than 200 yards passing. At some point you have to wonder if we’re even capable.

 

[fourthandshort]

I think that winner of the UNI - ISU game this weekend will make the playoffs while the loser may sit out.

I, feel better about our chances at YSU then I do this Saturday.

Through 8 games this season, seven times we’ve been held to less than 200 yards passing. At some point you have to wonder if we’re even capable.

Odds are still in our favor, even if we lose to both UNI and SDSU, finishing 8-4. There are a lot of teams in top 25 with 3 and 4 losses already who will lose at least 1 or 2 games still. Meaning 8-4 will look good, and several 7-5 teams will get bids this year. I just don't see anyway an 8-4 MVFC team gets left home in this field ... we would be 5-3 in conference (top 4) and 3-1 OOC, with an FBS loss. I think we even have a good chance at 7-5, assuming we don't get boat-raced by UNI and SDSU. My guess is there could be 3 to 5 teams with 7-5 records on the bubble, with most getting bids.

Here is STATS poll with #13 to 25, plus the Others Receiving Votes ... look how many 3 to 4 loss teams are ranked top 25; note the ORV group .. most of those of 4 losses already but are still on the bubble. Remember to remove the Ivy and HBCU conferences (MEAC & SWAC) ... though MEAC will probably get a bid this year, they don't usually. Everyone has 4 games remaining, some will get hot, but most will lose 1 or 2 more games.

13 Furman 1930 5-3 14
14 Montana State 1579 5-3 9
15 Dartmouth 1522 6-0 17
16 North Carolina A&T 1345 5-2 18
17 Florida A&M 1174 7-1 20
18 Southeast Missouri State 932 5-3 24
19 Central Connecticut State 917 7-1 23
20 Stony Brook 823 5-3 NR
21 Towson 686 4-4 16
22 Jacksonville State 568 6-3 25
23 Wofford 557 5-2 NR
24 North Dakota 539 5-3 NR
25 Nicholls 508 4-4 15

Others receiving votes: Sam Houston State (303) , Austin Peay (212) , Alcorn State (208) , UC Davis (131) , New Hampshire (128) , Albany (125) , Citadel (108) , Monmouth (107) , Delaware (96) , Elon (94) , UT Martin (77) , Youngstown State (70) , Southeastern Louisiana (57) , Yale (49) , Southern Illinois (33) , Richmond (31) , Northern Arizona (21) , South Carolina State (21) , Campbell (15) , UIW (6) , Eastern Kentucky (5) , Portland State (5) , Abilene Christian (3) , McNeese (2)

 

[Chi-bird]

Agree, 4th, but I'm still holding out hope for a strong 3-1 finish (perhaps a tough, close loss at SDSU), and somehow landing the 7 or 8 seed and hosting after a bye. It's possible. I believe Maine had 3 losses last year and landed the 7 seed.