Western

Total Red

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No more easy games. It wasn't easy last week and it won't be easy this week. Even the Sycs like to bury their roots and dig in for a four quarter struggle when you play them in Terre Haute and that's where we have to play them this year.

Western is coming into Normal on a roll with wins over FCS powers Montana and Youngstown St. in their last two games. YSU may be down a bit, but they played for the FCS National Championship in January of '17, so they have glory days more recent than ours. That's still a quality win over YSU and the Mighty Griz are 4-1 and ranked alongside of us so that quality win by Western is even more cause for concern. The 'necks did get both of those teams in Macomb so maybe they won't play as well on the road but I don't think Coach Spack will accept "we hope WIU won't play well" as a game plan.

The Redbirds better be ready and another scoreless first half will almost certainly prove fatal. Coach Beathard reigned supreme with Redbird fans in '14 when had NFL players like O'Shaun and Meredith along with 2 FBS transfer OT's - Barton and Liedtke. Liedtke also collected some NFL paychecks. Beathard was lauded again in '15 when the dynamic duo of Roberson and Coprich returned for another season as the greatest offensive backfield combo in Redbird history and Spelman was the top C in the FCS. It's funny how good coaches coach when they have great players and how badly they coach when the talent drops off.

We have an offense that can throw deep and run the ball but if a good defense takes those away we struggle. What's available are passes underneath the coverage and if you have an accurate QB and a stable of sure-handed receivers you should be able to move the ball from your own to 20 to the opponent's 20 rather easily. That didn't happen in the first half last week. So if Beathard wants the love fest with Redbird Nation to continue he's really going to have to earn his paycheck. He has to find a way to maximize the strengths that Brady Davis possesses (strong arm, scrambling ability, ability to throw on the run) and minimize his weakness (lack of touch in the short passing game). Beathard and Davis have only worked together for 2 months - August and September, so they aren't anywhere near finished collaborating. Davis has already played QB for a lot of years so I don't think he'll become a great touch passer at this point, but he can improve and Beathard can study which passes he does throw well because there have been a lot of those too.

So again we're playing the stubborn cockroaches of Western. They don't die when you take a 14-0 halftime lead, you just have to hammer them until they're completely dead. The revised game plan is that the roaches play a little worse and our offense plays a little better. Still not much of game plan, but we've never won a game with a message board post anyway so what difference does it make. ;)

10/6/18 - quality home win for the Redbirds
 

fourthandshort

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cpacmel said:
Illinois State - 6.5

Over / under 46

22 mins .. much improved CPAMEL .. way to step up your game !!!

I have to pick my Redbirds, mainly because I am pretty sure we will bounce right back. WIU is more of a known commodity, and not as good as last year. But they look like they are finding their mojo with current group .. so we of course should be ready for a dogfight.

Haven't done any analysis or anything, other than scores and records .. based solely on that, Redbirds win this game by score like 31 to 20. Davis and Robnson bounce back for a good game. Still hope Spack works Kolbe in for a couple series .. need to keep him ready, so why not game plan for it. We don't know how well Davis will respond as we play better teams and get punched in face, or if Davis gets banged up ... I would get Kolbe some meaningful reps now ... not 65/35 like I first argued, but a couple series'.
 

MadBird

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From a fan perspective, I would say WIU is about as "hated" a rival as we have - leaving the Frisco game out of it, I can't think of anyone bursting more ISU football balloons over the years as the Turkeynecks. Hope the players feel the same way.

One of my big worries, QB Sean McGuire. Last year, 19-30, 288 yds, 2 TD's and 1 pick. 5 carries for 25 yards just to squeeze it a little. 2016 -- 25-44, 312 yds, 2 TD's, 1 pick.

We're gonna need the pass defense to get after it this week. And of course the O has to get back on track.

More later, but that's as far as I've got so far.
 

JHBird

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Total Red said:
No more easy games. It wasn't easy last week and it won't be easy this week. Even the Sycs like to bury their roots and dig in for a four quarter struggle when you play them in Terre Haute and that's where we have to play them this year.

Western is coming into Normal on a roll with wins over FCS powers Montana and Youngstown St. in their last two games. YSU may be down a bit, but they played for the FCS National Championship in January of '17, so they have glory days more recent than ours. That's still a quality win over YSU and the Mighty Griz are 4-1 and ranked alongside of us so that quality win by Western is even more cause for concern. The 'necks did get both of those teams in Macomb so maybe they won't play as well on the road but I don't think Coach Spack will accept "we hope WIU won't play well" as a game plan.

The Redbirds better be ready and another scoreless first half will almost certainly prove fatal. Coach Beathard reigned supreme with Redbird fans in '14 when had NFL players like O'Shaun and Meredith along with 2 FBS transfer OT's - Barton and Liedtke. Liedtke also collected some NFL paychecks. Beathard was lauded again in '15 when the dynamic duo of Roberson and Coprich returned for another season as the greatest offensive backfield combo in Redbird history and Spelman was the top C in the FCS. It's funny how good coaches coach when they have great players and how badly they coach when the talent drops off.

We have an offense that can throw deep and run the ball but if a good defense takes those away we struggle. What's available are passes underneath the coverage and if you have an accurate QB and a stable of sure-handed receivers you should be able to move the ball from your own to 20 to the opponent's 20 rather easily. That didn't happen in the first half last week. So if Beathard wants the love fest with Redbird Nation to continue he's really going to have to earn his paycheck. He has to find a way to maximize the strengths that Brady Davis possesses (strong arm, scrambling ability, ability to throw on the run) and minimize his weakness (lack of touch in the short passing game). Beathard and Davis have only worked together for 2 months - August and September, so they aren't anywhere near finished collaborating. Davis has already played QB for a lot of years so I don't think he'll become a great touch passer at this point, but he can improve and Beathard can study which passes he does throw well because there have been a lot of those too.

So again we're playing the stubborn cockroaches of Western. They don't die when you take a 14-0 halftime lead, you just have to hammer them until they're completely dead. The revised game plan is that the roaches play a little worse and our offense plays a little better. Still not much of game plan, but we've never won a game with a message board post anyway so what difference does it make. ;)

10/6/18 - quality home win for the Redbirds

Good summary Red! You should work for the Pantagraph.

I would love to see some naked bootleg plays, with the option to pass. I think that could work biggly.
 

DannyCooksey

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I believe we rebound at home and play our most complete game to date.

Birds 34
Necks 18
 

fourthandshort

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DannyCooksey said:
I believe we rebound at home and play our most complete game to date.

Birds 34
Necks 18
So Chucky picks 34-17 score and you follow that with 34-18 score .. ... who predicts a team will score 18 ? I think you've been watching way to much Price is Right with that strategy :D
 

MadBird

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fourthandshort said:
DannyCooksey said:
I believe we rebound at home and play our most complete game to date.

Birds 34
Necks 18
So Chucky picks 34-17 score and you follow that with 34-18 score .. ... who predicts a team will score 18 ? I think you've been watching way to much Price is Right with that strategy :D

Headline -- "Outstanding Redbird D holds Leathernecks to 6 Field Goals"
:lol:
 

Adunk33

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When I make predictions I am 2-0. When I chose not to make predictions the team is 1-1... The return of my prediction:

Birds 38, Leatherers 17.
 

DannyCooksey

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fourthandshort said:
DannyCooksey said:
I believe we rebound at home and play our most complete game to date.

Birds 34
Necks 18
So Chucky picks 34-17 score and you follow that with 34-18 score .. ... who predicts a team will score 18 ? I think you've been watching way to much Price is Right with that strategy :D

LOL

i saw that as soon as I posted.

3 safeties and 4 FG's.
 

fourthandshort

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DannyCooksey said:
fourthandshort said:
DannyCooksey said:
I believe we rebound at home and play our most complete game to date.

Birds 34
Necks 18
So Chucky picks 34-17 score and you follow that with 34-18 score .. ... who predicts a team will score 18 ? I think you've been watching way to much Price is Right with that strategy :D

LOL

i saw that as soon as I posted.

3 safeties and 4 FG's.
oh ... :think: ... hadn't thought of that scenario. :roll: That's much more realistic than 6 FGs or 3 TDs with 3 missed XPs.
 

ST_Lawson

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isuquinndog said:
I can't believe Lawson hasn't come by yet!

Who says he hasn't been? ;)
fourthandshort said:
oh ... :think: ... hadn't thought of that scenario. :roll: That's much more realistic than 6 FGs or 3 TDs with 3 missed XPs.

Idk about that...we went for 2 on the first drive of the game against YSU and missed it, so maybe we'll go for 2 every time this game.


I've been checking in and reading stuff, but mostly quiet this season on opposing team message boards. I think it's just that even through 4 games, 3 of which I was physically at, I don't feel like I have a real good read on our team. There's obviously some really good players, but they've also made some mistakes.

We don't have like 1 or 2 primary receivers this year...it's like...idk "receiver by committee"...a whole mess of pretty decent guys. A couple of them are transfers too, so it feels like every time someone makes a catch I have to go to the roster and be like "wait...who's that?" Our RB has the most receiving TDs of anyone, but 8 players have had at least 1 receiving TD this season, including Khalen Saunders...a Defensive End. Our run game up the middle is crap right now because of our young O-line, but McGuire is good enough to usually evade any defenders who get through and can turn broken plays into big ones (seems like every drive has a play like this).

Defensively we're pretty decent, despite losing Brett Taylor. Quentin Moon has stepped up as the primary LB, but Zach Glisan and Pete Swenson (also LBs) have really picked up their game. It's still early, but Moon and Glisan are currently leading the conference in solo tackles, with Swenson getting a ton of pressure on QBs. Our DBs have been pretty solid so far...Justin Fitzpatrick can do just about anything (18 tackles, a forced fumble, an INT, 13 hits, 1 HR, 5 RBIs...an Emmy), and we've got some new faces that are making plays with Junior DB Eric Carrera (who has played in the past, but sparingly) and transfer DB Zach Muniz both having 2 INTs so far.

Overall...I just don't even know. I mean...we're good...at least I think we're good...we beat Montana, who's been looking really decent lately, but we also let YSU back into the game a couple of times (YSU who lost to non-scholarship Butler)...but we did win that one too...eventually (it was nearly 4 hours long). It doesn't feel like we're as good as we were last year, and it sure feels like you guys are better than you were (even with that inexplicable MSU game), so I don't see it being anywhere near the point differential it was last year. Of course I'm hoping for a WIU win, but I think it'll be much closer of a game. My predictions that I've been making around the internet are essentially for a 3-pt WIU win. Weather could play a factor, with thunderstorms predicted...so if there's a lot of rain, could be low scoring. I could see this one going ISU's way though if we make a few too many mistakes (that's what happened at Montana State).

Anyway...as usual, I'll be making the trip down to Redbirdland, this time with my dad (4th time in 4 years...twice in 2015...I feel like I may need to start renting an apartment in Normal if this keeps up). I made sure to buy tickets early this time so I don't have to go begging around for tickets this time (although thanks again ChiRedbirdfan for the assist last year). I'll probably spend some time in the WIU Alumni area, but I'm not opposed to swinging by to say hi to some ISU fans (as forthandshort can attest).
 

Total Red

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We have predictions of 17,18 and 17 pts for WIU after they scored 31 and 45 the last two games. I don't see McGuire/WIU being held under 20.

and crap why didn't someone tell me we had company. Lawson's here and he's always a gentleman so now I'm embarrassed. I hope you know when I say "cockroaches" I say it with the utmost respect.
 

ST_Lawson

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Total Red said:
We have predictions of 17,18 and 17 pts for WIU after they scored 31 and 45 the last two games. I don't see McGuire/WIU being held under 20.

and crap why didn't someone tell me we had company. Lawson's here and he's always a gentleman so now I'm embarrassed. I hope you know when I say "cockroaches" I say it with the utmost respect.

Score - yeah, that's my thought too. I think the weather will play a role. If it's rainy, we might both be in the upper teens/lower 20's score-wise. If it's not, McGuire can really sling it around the field. It only took 3 offensive plays from scrimmage and 2:13 of game time for us to go up 14-0 against Montana. I also realize that between Davis, Robinson, Schnell and Markel, you guys can put up some serious points too. It's kinda one of those "whichever defense really steps up" sort of situations, I think. My guess is whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game (big shocker on that one, I know ;) )

You say cockroaches that won't die...I say that we're tenacious and never give up...just two sides of the same coin :cool:. You guys have done the same to us at times too (anyone remember 2014?). We've both seen what happens when one team lets up some in the second half. I know that many on your team are going to want some revenge for what we did last year and that they'll be wanting to show that last week was just an anomaly for you guys. We'll have to bring our A-game for all 4 quarters to come out of Normal with a win this year.
 

isuquinndog

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Glad you made it over Lawson!

I wish I was going to be around this weekend but there is a good size group of posters that hangout at CindyGate. Her tailgate is located in the parking lot between Redbird Arena and the academic building south west of Hancock. They are in the grass area between the parking lot and College Avenue. She's hard to miss, they have a big white CINDYGATE flag that flies pretty high in the air.
 

fourthandshort

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You guys need to go easy on Lawson .. he hasn't been the same since we fed him our Redbird "spiced" pumpkin muffins at our tailgate last year. Shoot .. we should have fed his Leathernecks some at halftime last year and maybe things would have turned out better for our Redbirds that game. Moving on ...

Thanks for WIU report .. having trouble figuring you guys out this year so far. Looks like you're finding you stride but still hard to get a read overall like recent years.

We seem to be much improved on offense (ignoring 1st half of MoST), and better than we expected on defense after losing 9 "fullest" time starters from a year ago. Amazingly, we have some depth on defense, but did lose several studs .. so we'er still figuring out who our studs will be. McGuire will be best QB we've seen this year, but DB pass defense has been pretty good so far .. CSU had some talented WRs but their QB and OL were just ok .. weak for FBS, but ok for FCS.

Honestly liking our chances better this year than last. Your run game seems to be lagging, while ours is better. If we control the trenches like we should, I really like our chances.
 

Phantom

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Gonna be a slugfest. Almost always is a hard, physical game vs. WIU. We came out flat and ugly @MSU, and I don't expect that to happen again. If we can make it a two-possession game early, I think Beathard will step on the gas. We must win the trenches though. It'll be a battle but I like our chances at home. Hopefully the weather holds.

Redbirds 24
'Necks 16

11,306
 

redbirdfan04

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I think this is the game we learn how good both our lines actually are. This game is going to be won up front. They can put a bunch of points on the board fast. How are we going to slow down McGuire and McShane? I am really excited for this game as both teams know a loss and playoff hopes start to fade.

ISU-35
WIU-31
 
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