To foul or not to foul...

[gobirds85]

that is the eternally burning question in college hoops. When you are up 3 with less than 8 or so seconds do you foul prior to the shot attempt and send the opposing player to the line to attempt two pressure filled fts or do you play it out?

Last night gregggy and wsu played it out and allowed UConn to tie it up with five seconds left. If not for an incredible shot by wsu at the buzzer they might have lost. San Fran did the same thing and allowed the tying three with three seconds on the clock and they lost in OT. I don't get it. Up three, and the opposition only gets two points if they make the fts. If they do, you get the ball back. Thoughts...

 

[SgtHulka]

I like the idea of fouling in those scenarios

 

[birdlife]

i think there's two arguments against fouling. (feel free to add to this)
1. you're stopping the clock and giving them free pts, when there are times a team doesnt even get a shot off before the buzzer.
2. is if they make the first and miss the second free throw, there's a chance they get the offensive rebound.

i'd assume there are stats to look at, like whats the percentage of offensive boards off of free throws. and compare that to three pt shooting percentage on buzzer beaters.

i lean towards fouling to take away the chance at the three pointer, and trust your guys to get a rebound if it happens and make their free throws

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

I also like fouling up two with more than ten seconds left.
Shooter has pressure of having to make two free throws.
Even if he does, I like having ball in tie game with ten or more seconds, rather than other team hitting three pointer at the buzzer.

What I don’t like is intentionally fouling with ten seconds in the game and a four point lead.
Or fouling a player going in for a layup with a five point lead and only seven seconds left in the game (and letting him make the layup)

 

[Adunk33]

Foul on the catch of the in bound every time. It is highly difficult to catch the inbound and turn and shoot before getting fouled.

 

[Birdman07]

Win the game every time.

 

[Birdswin]

I am of the opinion to have two guys in the back court playing physical defense - if the ref calls a foul, so be it - it not and we get a turnover, all the better. Have a third player around the timeline to foul IF somehow the first two were unsuccessful. Make sure the back two guys are aware of the three shooters to avoid the long pass along the sidelines. No one is going to care about driving for a layup.

 

[Tpguy]

Don't foul, no team ever makes a half court three at the buzzer.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

I like that Muller has made everyone game plan for the most unthinkable scenarios.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

that is the eternally burning question in college hoops. When you are up 3 with less than 8 or so seconds do you foul prior to the shot attempt and send the opposing player to the line to attempt two pressure filled fts or do you play it out?

Last night gregggy and wsu played it out and allowed UConn to tie it up with five seconds left. If not for an incredible shot by wsu at the buzzer they might have lost. San Fran did the same thing and allowed the tying three with three seconds on the clock and they lost in OT. I don't get it. Up three, and the opposition only gets two points if they make the fts. If they do, you get the ball back. Thoughts...

Foul. Every. Time.

 

[stats]

The time left on the clock is an important variable. If you foul them with 8 seconds lefts up by 3. They can then foul you with 7 seconds left down by 1. If you miss the front end of a 1 and 1, they can come down and win...as opposed to just tie. It is such an important situation play, it needs to be practiced repeatedly to be ready for a game situation.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

It depends on a variety of factors:

1.) How much time is left?
2.) Do they have to bring the ball up full court? There have been times we sat at half court and let the other team save seconds rolling the ball up. That is why Valpo had enough time left.
3.). How good are their FT shooters? No sense fouling an 80+% shooter with too much time because they could then foul our worst shooter before the clock even starts.
4.) How good are our shooters? When we lost to Valpo, one of our best FT shooters (Copeland) missed FTs.
5.) Are we able to move the ball down the court to burn time? Ex. If there are 3-4 seconds left, can we get the ball in and quickly loft the ball up to burn 2-3 seconds in the air and run out the clock.
6.) Are we home or on the road? I would guess our students could better distract opponents’ shooters.
7.) If they make the first FT and miss the 2nd, do they have a lower % chance of getting the offensive board and making the basket? Unless they do that and get fouled or someone kicks it out for enough time to hit a 3, the worst that should happen is a tie.
8.) Is it 1-and-bonus or 2 FTs? In WBB it doesn’t matter because everything is 2 FTs. In men’s it does.
9.) Do we have fouls to give? They aren’t realistically going to shoot from 3/4 court with 8 seconds left. If we have fouls to give, burn a second or two.

Like in football, this is why it pays to have someone who understands strategy and probability/statistics to see what gives us the best chance to win.