Season Predictions

[fourthandshort]

Good point on special teams .. need place kicking to settle in.

I don't usually do predictions but what the heck...8-3. Based only on expectations of the offense being much more productive and faith in Spack's ability to pull solid defenses out of the air. I have not heard much talk about special teams but I can see a couple of these games coming down to a special teams play or two.

 

[fourthandshort]

Phase 1 ... First 4 games should be 3.7 - 0.3, rounds to 4-0. But it is important we win 3 decisively, including 2 blowouts. We can only afford one "weak win" here, given our weak SOS will not impress the FCS selection committee.

Dayton W .. 100%
@-WIU W ...80% .. got a lot of transfers, plus road game, plus they usualky play us tougher than expected
@-EIU W .. 90%
Lindy W .. 100% .. don't buy any hype on this team surprising last year .. though they did surprise. They had a legit stud dual threat QB and they caught a couple teams flat-footed as a recent D-II program. Their defense sucked last year, so we should put up close to 50. Their stud QB is gone ... not likely they'll have a good one waiting his turn.

Phase 2 ... SDSU will be as unbeatable as any NDSU team we have ever played .. they were great last year and have like 90% coming back. Goal is to be respectable. If we are within 3 TDs end of game and not blown out at half, swallow our pride, lick our wounds, and get ready for ISUb. Might be too early to worry about blowout, as we won't be tested seriously in first 4 games.

SDSU L .. 10% ... we usually play up to their level, but no way we win this game .. though at home. If we do ... put the koolaid away, start shopping for Frisco . So this game is a Loss, but will be good test for where we are and rest of season. We're really gonna ,iss Zeke this game .. he "almost" single handedly kept us in last year's game the 1st half.

Phase 3 .. the next 3 will be the inflection point of our season, good or mediocre. I see it as .. 1.8 - 1.2, which rounds to 2-1. But if defense hasn't found itself, this could easily be 1-2 .. which means 3 losses with 3 games to go.

Blue U W .. 80% .. not going to be an easy one, but Zack and offense lit these guys up last year. Maybe leave the foot on gas pedal this year ? This will need to be the game our defense shows it has come of age.
@-YSU W .. 50% .. this may be generous. They also got a lot of transfers in .. but that doesn't always work out. But it's road game . But I think YSU will be very solid in 2023. This is the first game in real question ... so it is THE most important game of the season. Need offense and defense starting to peak .. especially given another tough game coming up .. UNI.
UNI W .. 50% ... this assumes our defense is back to Spack norm. But I think UNI will be very good this fall. But it's a home game, and our defense should be ready.

so far 5.6 - 2.4 .. so 6-2 of 5-3 so far.

Phase 4 .. Last 3 could be the icing on the cake, or end of season. .. 2.1 - 0.9, which is 2-1

@=MoSU W .. 80%. . got a lot of transfers, but lost their HC and they really fell off last season after couple of good years.
MuSU-2 W .. 90% .. should be a lock
@-UND L .. 40% .. another tough opponent, and on road

So closer to 8-3 than 7-4. But we'll need to some quality wins and losses.

Bottom line, liking our offense more and more we hear. Believe our defense will come around .. so 8-3 and playoff bid !!!!

So after 2 games, seeing our offense and defense in 2 tune-ups, acknowledging we've got some stuff to clean up in all 3 phases of game ... I'm feeling even better about 8-3.

Though the EIU game is looking tougher, especially on the road - theyre up next for us. Along with YSU looking very legit this season so far. SIU also looking tough .. we don't play them, but we'll likely be competing with them for a playoff spot.

On flipside, UNI is struggling a lilttle more than I would have guessed .. though Iowa St loss was much more competitive than the score, and the Weber State loss at home was the result of 6 turnovers (3 pics, 3 fumbles) .. 5 Weber St drives started in UNI territory. Stud QB Theo Day is off to rough start so far .. lot of picks and sacks .. wonder about their OL. Then ISUb is really struggling without their QB.

MVFC looking very strong so far .. SDSU, NDSU, YSU, SIU, UND all playing well .. then us and UNI.