Season Predictions

D

Dmills

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 6, 2020
Messages
1,798
I would say 7-4 is probably the most likely result. We should only be heavy underdogs vs. SDSU. UNI, MoSt, UND, YSU are toss ups. Should be able to take care of business against Dayton, WIU, EIU, Lindenwood, InSt, and MuSt.
 
R

Reggie Redbird

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
1,799
crazzymark said:
ISU has to beat at least 2 ranked teams to make the playoffs.
Click to expand...
With a non-com that is the #7 and #8 preseason OVC teams and non-schollie Dayton, yes, I would expect us to have to win against a ranked team or two to make it. Going 3-0 against those 3 opponents isn’t going to do much for us even if we blow them out. Losing close won’t look good, but at least gets us closer to 8 wins.
 
D

DaveBird10

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
1,396
I am kinda thinking along these lines.

First 4 games that are must win. Need to win the games you're supposed to win.
Dayton
@WIU
@EIu
Lindenwood.
- We should win these 4 and start out 4-0

- You then need to go 4-3 the rest of the year to get to that 8-3 record to make the playoffs.


Games we should win
vs Indiana State
vs Murray State
- If we win these games that gets us to 6 wins

The other 5 games is where our season will tell the story.

HUGE GAMES
vs SDSU
vs UNI
- These will be ranked teams coming into town where if we want to get to the playoffs these games will be key. I always say win your games and go .500 on the road. Need to win a game at home vs a ranked team.

@YSU
@Missouri State
@North Dakota
- These 3 games again could tell the story how the season goes. If we win 1 or 2 of these 3 road games then we will have a solid to very good season. Haven't won a lot of road conference games recently and that needs to change.
 
Total Red

Total Red

Well-known member
Staff member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
3,180
Location
One mile west of Hancock
Dmills said:
I would say 7-4 is probably the most likely result. We should only be heavy underdogs vs. SDSU. UNI, MoSt, UND, YSU are toss ups. Should be able to take care of business against Dayton, WIU, EIU, Lindenwood, InSt, and MuSt.
Click to expand...
I break it down the same way. The schedule includes 6 games that should be won and 4 toss ups. If you figure 2-2 on toss up games, you should arrive at 8 wins, so why did I go with 7? My first instinct is to say that I deduct a game for the almost inevitable injuries that will crop up. But don't other teams have injuries too? Isn't it just as likely that another team will lose a key player or players and provide us with a win we wouldn't otherwise get? I need a more logical explanation for going with 7.

The imbalance in the schedule doesn't favor us. By imbalance, I mean a schedule with 1 opportunity for a real upset and 6 opportunities to be upset. We're not a dominating Dakota St. team. I think half of those 6 "take care of business" games will be close. The games that concern me the most are 1) Lindenwood, 2) Western, and 3) Indiana St.

1) Lindenwood - I fear we won't treat them with the proper respect as an up-and-coming team new to FCS football. Lindenwood won at Cent. Arkansas last year so they've already shown the ability to hang with middleweight FCS teams. An improved Lindenwood could be overlooked, especially when we play them the week before South Dakota St. Also, the Lindenwood O-Line coach has an extra incentive to look good. He'll have his unit fired up and ready.

2) Western ILL - I lovingly call Western - Cockroach U. because you mistakenly think that they are dead and gone and then they come BACK! WIU is leaving the conference but beware of the sucker punch on the way out. ST_Lawson has to be laughing at us when we say that Western can't compete in the Valley anymore. He might have to listen to that from SDSU and NDSU but he doesn't have to take that from us. As you may recall, we were tied with Western 13-13 after 4 quarters in the final game of '22 played at Hancock. A lot of Western players hit the portal after the season but not all of them left. They have a MLB'er DelaCruz that I like a lot and he returned. WIU is not solid up and down the lineup, but they have some good players. They're not all that different from us. Take THE ROACHES SERIOUSLY or pay the price.

3) Indiana St. - We usually play Indiana St. well at home. We did lose the last time they played here but to me that makes it even less likely that they can win two in row in Normal. What would make me nervous about this game would be an upset of South Dakota St. If we pull off a raucous nighttime upset of the Jackbunnies the hangover could be severe. Much like what happened after Northwestern, a victory over SDSU could come with consequences. But we won't beat SDSU, so nothing to worry about - right?

And now I've provided 3 teams with bulletin board material. I've suggested that Dayton, Eastern and Murray St. are games we should win, and I don't even see them as possible upsets. In reality it's a 11-game regular season and none of these games has been decided. Upsets happen. I've got 7-4.
 
fourthandshort

fourthandshort

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
9,768
Phase 1 ... First 4 games should be 3.7 - 0.3, rounds to 4-0. But it is important we win 3 decisively, including 2 blowouts. We can only afford one "weak win" here, given our weak SOS will not impress the FCS selection committee.

Dayton W .. 100%
@-WIU W ...80% .. got a lot of transfers, plus road game, plus they usualky play us tougher than expected
@-EIU W .. 90%
Lindy W .. 100% .. don't buy any hype on this team surprising last year .. though they did surprise. They had a legit stud dual threat QB and they caught a couple teams flat-footed as a recent D-II program. Their defense sucked last year, so we should put up close to 50. Their stud QB is gone ... not likely they'll have a good one waiting his turn.

Phase 2 ... SDSU will be as unbeatable as any NDSU team we have ever played .. they were great last year and have like 90% coming back. Goal is to be respectable. If we are within 3 TDs end of game and not blown out at half, swallow our pride, lick our wounds, and get ready for ISUb. Might be too early to worry about blowout, as we won't be tested seriously in first 4 games.

SDSU L .. 10% ... we usually play up to their level, but no way we win this game .. though at home. If we do ... put the koolaid away, start shopping for Frisco 🤪. So this game is a Loss, but will be good test for where we are and rest of season. We're really gonna ,iss Zeke this game .. he "almost" single handedly kept us in last year's game the 1st half.

Phase 3 .. the next 3 will be the inflection point of our season, good or mediocre. I see it as .. 1.8 - 1.2, which rounds to 2-1. But if defense hasn't found itself, this could easily be 1-2 .. which means 3 losses with 3 games to go.

Blue U W .. 80% .. not going to be an easy one, but Zack and offense lit these guys up last year. Maybe leave the foot on gas pedal this year ? This will need to be the game our defense shows it has come of age.
@-YSU W .. 50% .. this may be generous. They also got a lot of transfers in .. but that doesn't always work out. But it's road game . But I think YSU will be very solid in 2023. This is the first game in real question ... so it is THE most important game of the season. Need offense and defense starting to peak .. especially given another tough game coming up .. UNI.
UNI W .. 50% ... this assumes our defense is back to Spack norm. But I think UNI will be very good this fall. But it's a home game, and our defense should be ready.

so far 5.6 - 2.4 .. so 6-2 of 5-3 so far.

Phase 4 .. Last 3 could be the icing on the cake, or end of season. .. 2.1 - 0.9, which is 2-1

@=MoSU W .. 80%. . got a lot of transfers, but lost their HC and they really fell off last season after couple of good years.
MuSU-2 W .. 90% .. should be a lock
@-UND L .. 40% .. another tough opponent, and on road

So closer to 8-3 than 7-4. But we'll need to some quality wins and losses.

Bottom line, liking our offense more and more we hear. Believe our defense will come around .. so 8-3 and playoff bid !!!!
 
Last edited:
R

Redbird15

Active member
Joined
Aug 10, 2019
Messages
326
MadBird said:
We have a very capable QB, a deep RB group, veteran line with depth. Capable, experienced OC. Just need receivers to step up! Get the swagger back!
Click to expand...
OL has to Step up to allow time for the QB which then maybe we can see if the capable QB can throw a deep ball which not many were throw over 30 yards which comes down to the OC which if the above falls in order then maybe blame can then be put on WR's. The key is can they create separation which we really did not see in previous years since Schnell left. RB did a great job with the OL that we had last year. I will say this during Brady error Jame's Robinson made OL and WR look good when teams stack the BOX to stop JR. With that being said the key is OL play and Redbirds players playing as a cohesive team as well as coaches strategic plans to use all weapons !
 
Virginia Redbird

Virginia Redbird

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2017
Messages
2,581
Location
Chesapeake, Virginia
I don't usually do predictions but what the heck...8-3. Based only on expectations of the offense being much more productive and faith in Spack's ability to pull solid defenses out of the air. I have not heard much talk about special teams but I can see a couple of these games coming down to a special teams play or two.
 
Total Red

Total Red

Well-known member
Staff member
Joined
Jul 17, 2017
Messages
3,180
Location
One mile west of Hancock
Redbird15 said:
OL has to Step up to allow time for the QB which then maybe we can see if the capable QB can throw a deep ball which not many were throw over 30 yards which comes down to the OC which if the above falls in order then maybe blame can then be put on WR's. The key is can they create separation which we really did not see in previous years since Schnell left. RB did a great job with the OL that we had last year. I will say this during Brady error Jame's Robinson made OL and WR look good when teams stack the BOX to stop JR. With that being said the key is OL play and Redbirds players playing as a cohesive team as well as coaches strategic plans to use all weapons !
Click to expand...
No doubt that everybody has to do their job to do for the offense to click, and I completely agree that Annexstad needs more time to throw deep.* The injuries to the offensive line last season have been well documented. The receivers need to do a better job of getting separation and catching the ball, so we agree there as well. I talked to one of our receivers recently and he told me that the average fan in the stands doesn't appreciate the effect the breeze has at many Hancock games. Passes get buffeted around by the wind and they don't always travel in a straight line. I sympathize with him. It's a really tough job and I know that I couldn't do it, but it doesn't change the mission. The line has to block, the QB has to get the pass close enough to be caught and the receivers need to hold onto every pass they touch.
Here's a list of the MVFC Receivers with the highest receiving yardage per game last season. #1) Brantley - WIU (yes Western) 53 catches for 893 yards, 89ypg #2)Oliver - YSU 59 catches for 821yards, 75ypg #3)Hendrix - Ind St. 50 catches for 719 yards, 72 ypg.

2022 Football - Overall Statistics - Missouri Valley Football Conference

The official 2022 Football cumulative statistics for Missouri Valley Football Conference
valley-football.org valley-football.org
The highest Redbird on the list? Daniel Sobkowicz, but you have to go down to #18. Sobkowicz 31 catches for 377 yards, 34ypg.
Interesting thing about #1, 2, and 3. WIU, YSU and Ind St. are not dome teams. They all play outside just like the Redbirds and I've been to all 3 places. The wind blows there too. It's hard, but if the other teams are doing it then we've got to do it. And on a semi-related subject, I would be happy if Coach Spack never mentioned the word Covid again. Yeah it sucked, but it sucked for everybody, it's not an excuse. It's time to move on.
*Final thought on throwing deep. I think Annexstad will focus on the short drop-quick pass, passing game. He has to consistency/accuracy to run that type of offense. Even so, you have to be able to go deep over the top of the defense once in a while or they'll just jam things up at the line of scrimmage.
We need someone to emerge as a deep threat.
 
R

Redbird15

Active member
Joined
Aug 10, 2019
Messages
326
Total Red said:
No doubt that everybody has to do their job to do for the offense to click, and I completely agree that Annexstad needs more time to throw deep.* The injuries to the offensive line last season have been well documented. The receivers need to do a better job of getting separation and catching the ball, so we agree there as well. I talked to one of our receivers recently and he told me that the average fan in the stands doesn't appreciate the effect the breeze has at many Hancock games. Passes get buffeted around by the wind and they don't always travel in a straight line. I sympathize with him. It's a really tough job and I know that I couldn't do it, but it doesn't change the mission. The line has to block, the QB has to get the pass close enough to be caught and the receivers need to hold onto every pass they touch.
Here's a list of the MVFC Receivers with the highest receiving yardage per game last season. #1) Brantley - WIU (yes Western) 53 catches for 893 yards, 89ypg #2)Oliver - YSU 59 catches for 821yards, 75ypg #3)Hendrix - Ind St. 50 catches for 719 yards, 72 ypg.

2022 Football - Overall Statistics - Missouri Valley Football Conference

The official 2022 Football cumulative statistics for Missouri Valley Football Conference
valley-football.org valley-football.org
The highest Redbird on the list? Daniel Sobkowicz, but you have to go down to #18. Sobkowicz 31 catches for 377 yards, 34ypg.
Interesting thing about #1, 2, and 3. WIU, YSU and Ind St. are not dome teams. They all play outside just like the Redbirds and I've been to all 3 places. The wind blows there too. It's hard, but if the other teams are doing it then we've got to do it. And on a semi-related subject, I would be happy if Coach Spack never mentioned the word Covid again. Yeah it sucked, but it sucked for everybody, it's not an excuse. It's time to move on.
*Final thought on throwing deep. I think Annexstad will focus on the short drop-quick pass, passing game. He has to consistency/accuracy to run that type of offense. Even so, you have to be able to go deep over the top of the defense once in a while or they'll just jam things up at the line of scrimmage.
We need someone to emerge as a deep threat.
Click to expand...
Agree with you 100%. If everything clicks run game and passing both Sobkowicz who had 31 catches for 377 and Carr who had 32 catches for 309 both of those guys could easily have around 45+ catches this up coming season. On the yards they would maybe end up with around 525yds base on short passing game. If Camo Nelson or I'Shawn Stewart break out and with the RB's depth our total offense production we could easily average 375 yards total offense a game- compared to 288 last year(2022) which would be close to JR 2018 was 400pg. The top MFVC leaders will attempt more deep ball throws sometimes with no rhyme or reason. Just think back to YSU game against ISU they were trying to throw deep balls with Zeke killing their QB's LOL ! With all that being said if offense can average 375pg that would be close to JR days which my bold prediction would be 9-2 base on offense production ... ? becomes can a young defense and special teams produce ?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom