Redbirds - Rams predictions

[Total Red]

No more easy games. Indiana St. is competitive again racking up 55 pts in a win over Eastern and the MSU Bears had an even more impressive win over N. Ariz 40-8. SIU is vulnerable with a weak defense but you can't overlook them with their ability to score in bunches - 38 in the first half at Ole Miss. From here on every win will be a quality win.

I think we have the talent to beat Colorado State. We're solid in the trenches with some exceptional skill players. I thought the 'Birds had a chance to be Northwestern back in '16 and they did but we needed the 'Cats to play less than their best and they obliged. I don't feel that way about CSU. The Redbirds can go toe-to-toe with them even if the Rams play well.

Even so I'm picking CSU in this one. A lot is made of the FBS/FCS disparity in games like this but like I said we can match up with them so I don't see that as a problem. These are even teams so it's not FBS/FCS it's Home team vs. Away. When the talent is close you favor the home team. The altitude could be a factor but really anytime you travel a longer distance to an unfamiliar stadium it becomes dicey. When good teams unravel it usually happens on the road. There are lots of exceptions to be sure so I'll be glued to the action. We're packing up our gunslinger and heading west. Aim Shoot Score. We have a gunfighter's chance.

 

[fourthandshort]

Copy/Paste from other thread

I'm thinking over at 58 and I'm giving our Redbirds 50/50 chance to win. They were decent a year ago .. very very good on offense, but weak on defense. Their offense lost about 7 starters, then their HC had health scare right before season .. so they had bit to overcome to start season.

We had 2 weeks to prepare, and they most certainly did not have this game circled on their calendar nearly as much as we did on ours. They have already played 4 FBS games, going 1-3 .. so they will be a little banged up presumably. Though our 2 easy tune-up games probably weren't best prep for an FBS .. we will be rested and healthy walking into this game by comparison to CSU.

No common opponents, but 2 steps removed we have Arkansas as common opponent of opponent .. Arkansas has played both EIU and CSU. We beat EIU worse than Arkansas did ... stats had our defense almost identical to what Arkansas gave up, but our offense way outperformed Arkansas against EIU .. by 150 total yards .. granted 97 came on one play. So Arkansas had CSU beat until CSU went on 24-0 run starting late in Q3 to win 34-27.. apparently Arkansas is also not good at prevent, but CSU did explode for alittle over a quarter .. otherwise, they would be sitting 0-4.

They have advantage of being home at 5,000 elevation they are used to ... I hope we prepare and game plan more overtly. I get Spack's psychology about not letting his players use that as excuse ... but science is science ... plan for it.

Hard to know what to make of our offense given who we've played .. InSU put up 55 points on EIU at EIU, though only won by 14. We started subbing lilberally after 3 quarters. Also unsure what to make of defense having played 2 weaker teams. Their HC has had a lot of success building offenses, so it is probably just a matter of time for a reload/rebuild for them on offense.

That said, I have to pick my Redbirds in what looks like 50/50 contest .. but higher scoring game into 30 's ... unless we get gassed trying to ignore elevation .. need to slow game down on offense, for our defense.

Redbirds win 34-31

 

[Redbird28]

Not sure which of the 3 threads to throw this in so I just decided to put it here since it had a little news on how CSU has altered their practice schedule this week and a couple of their injury notes.

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/09/17/colorado-state-football-healthy/?productCode=WebAccessSP

 

[JHBird]

If Brady Davis had another year under our system I would like our chances better. I think he might struggle in this game. So I'm picking CSU. But the good news is that I'm not that good at picking games.

 

[ISUBU]

This is the game where we find out how much pressure our new defensive approach and players can put on the QB. Because if they are able to throw I think we're in trouble. CSU has tall receivers (6-4, 6-0, 6-6, and 6-2 TE) that will present some matching up challenges for us. From their stats so far, they are much more explosive throwing the ball rather than running the ball. And one player, WR Preston Williams, has more than a third of all of their long plays of more than 20 yards.

I think we surprised EIU with our willingness to pass. So CSU is now prepared to face us as a very balanced team that might throw it but that will certainly try to run the ball effectively. Their coach knows we have a big OLine, but I would think he'll try to challenge our athleticism. In the press conference I heard them talk about the number of players we have in the NFL....and using that to judge our talent. I'm sure they are taking us very seriously and looking at us as a must-win type of game to get them back on track for a successful season. They won't overlook us.

 

[DannyCooksey]

i like our chances.

Tough game for sure. But with 2 weeks to prepare and practice I think the Birds come out victorious.

I say 34-28

 

[Adunk33]

If we can win this game the STX game will be moot. I'm all for that. If we have 7 wins and this is one, we are in for sure. If we have 6 wins and this is one, we are in strong consideration.

No prediction this week. I just want to be able to sit on the couch and watch the game somehow!

 

[grons]

I like our chances in this one. Sure, it could be one of those games where everything goes wrong early and often and we end up losing by a little (or a lot). If I had to put money on it though, I would take the Birds. I think we're going to surprise some people (and ourselves) with a big win this Saturday.

 

[MadBird]

I'm still thinking about this.

Issues from the Colorado State website "Game Notes":

Since 2006, CSU is 9-1 against FCS opponents with its only loss coming against North Dakota
State in 2012. NDSU would go on to win the FCS national title that year.

• CSU ranks 11th in FBS in passing offense, averaging 336.8 yards per game through the air, against opposition that has included one Pac-12 and two SEC programs in the Rams’ four games.
• Graduate transfer QB K.J. Carta-Samuels ranks seventh in FBS in completions per game (26.25) and 10th in passing yards per game (329.8).
• In just four games as a Ram, Carta-Samuels has already set the school single-game passing record (537
yds, vs. Hawai’i, 8/25/18) and posted the 2nd and 3rd highest marks for single-game completions in program history (34, vs. Hawai’i, 8/25/18 and 32, vs. Arkansas, 9/8/18).
• In four games, Carta-Samuels has completed 64.4% of his passes (105-163) for 1,319 yards and 9 touchdowns with 3 interceptions.
• Junior WR Preston Williams ranks 3rd in FBS in receptions per game (9.0) and 7th in receiving yards per
game (124.3), and has four touchdown receptions in four games. He has topped the 100-yard receiving
mark in three of his four games as a Ram, including a game-high 106 yards on 9 receptions at Florida
Saturday.
• Williams’ 12 receptions in the Sept. 8 win over Arkansas tied for second-most in a game in CSU program
history.
• CSU ranks 11th in FBS in passing offense, averaging 336.8 yards per game through the air, against opposition that has included one Pac-12 and two SEC programs in the Rams’ four games.
• Graduate transfer QB K.J. Carta-Samuels ranks seventh in FBS in completions per game (26.25) and 10th in passing yards per game (329.8).
• In just four games as a Ram, Carta-Samuels has already set the school single-game passing record (537
yds, vs. Hawai’i, 8/25/18) and posted the 2nd and 3rd highest marks for single-game completions in program history (34, vs. Hawai’i, 8/25/18 and 32, vs. Arkansas, 9/8/18).
• In four games, Carta-Samuels has completed 64.4% of his passes (105-163) for 1,319 yards and 9 touchdowns with 3 interceptions.
• Junior WR Preston Williams ranks 3rd in FBS in receptions per game (9.0) and 7th in receiving yards per
game (124.3), and has four touchdown receptions in four games. He has topped the 100-yard receiving
mark in three of his four games as a Ram, including a game-high 106 yards on 9 receptions at Florida
Saturday.
• Williams’ 12 receptions in the Sept. 8 win over Arkansas tied for second-most in a game in CSU program
history.
• Down in The Swamp on Saturday, CSU held Florida to just 27 total yards in the first quarter (13 total plays, 2.1 yds/play). This came after the Rams held Arkansas to just 16 yards in the fourth quarter on Sept. 8, meaning over two consecutive quarters of play versus SEC teams, CSU surrendered just 37 total yards.

These guys aren't pushovers. QB is a transfer from Washington, top WR a transfer from Tennessee. Beefy OL. Stout DL.

 

[fourthandshort]

always respect your opponent, especially FBS ... but there are several indirect scores that suggest, we should expect to compete this game:

- They beat Arkansas by 7, but needed 24-0 late run to win. Arkansas beat EIU too, but we beat EIU worse.

- They lost by 38 to #56 Florida, who also beat weak Charleston Southern by 47 .. Chuck South was 6-5 last year playing in Big South.

- They lost to Colorado by 32, who also beat UNH by 31 .. UNH is off to weak start this year.

- They lost to Hawaii by 11, who also beat Rice by 14 .. Rice only beat to Prairie View by 3. Prairie View is middling team from SWAC ... 2nd worst conf in FCS.

So all 4 of their games were against teams who have played FCS games with similar results for margins .. though Prairie View was one game removed. The point is, CSU is a team we should compete with.

Yes, they like to throw the ball .. averaging 41 passes per game, so yes, they are getting pass yards. But they really struggle to run the ball (2.6 ypc) and also struggle to stop the run (6.2 ypc). They also give up some pass yards and punt return yards (22.5 per return).

 

[StLRedbird]

This sure feels like a pick'em game, doesn't it? I say we get a break or three and pull one out, 37-31.

 

[fourthandshort]

Here's another stat that tells a lot about line play ... lost yards versus total rush yards:

- CSU offense: 118 lost yards against 447 total rush yards .. or 25% lost yards
- CSU defense: 50 lost yards against 1,028 total rush yards .. or just 5% lost yards

Conclusion, they are losing big at line of scrimmmage. No penetration on defense, and giving up penetration on offense. But yes, they can throw it and will throw it a lot .. we will have to go lean on DL and rotate our LBers as much as we can.

Now here is ISU lost yards to total yards:

- ISU 2018 offense: 5%
- ISU 2018 defense: 41%

but we've played much weaker teams so far this year, so let's look at last years full season

- ISU 2017 offense: 14% .. with a banged up new OL and bad OC, this year will be much better
- ISU 2017 defense: 22%

Line plan will be critical to controlling clock, and keeping our defense rested at this altitude ... so we should expect to grind out 1st downs and chew up play clock. Let our defense catch their breath.

 

[crazzymark]

blah blah blah......36 ISU,,CSU 20

 

[crazzymark]

JUST A BETTER LINE O AND...AND ALL THE DAVIS HATERS... A BETTER QB...GO LONG REDBIRDS...

 

[Sanantoniobird]

Unless we’ve cracked the code on DB pass coverage, this could get ugly. I won’t break my tradition of never giving predictions for Redbird FB, but I’ll just say we need to win all the games we’re supposed to after this!

 

[Chi-bird]

Colorado state can be dangerous at home. They have a nice passing attack with Carter-Samuels and with their big receivers. There defense is not playing well, but they have some athletes on that side of the ball. I think the elevation, along with the high temps (it will probably be 100 degrees on the turf) presents a bigger problem for us than it does them. This is very important game for them as well. They’ve played some big time opponents and collected some paychecks (record $2 million to play Florida) but this is one they if they want to continue the positive momentum that has arrived with their new stadium. The fans will look past a loss to Florida, Colorado and even Hawaii, but a home loss to us could really be painful...even though we are more than a worthy opponent.

I think the game comes down to some big plays. I think our defense plays well against the run but I could see is giving it wasn’t deep passes and seven frustrating third and longs. We will need to get excellent play out of many DBs this game.

Offensively, I hope Davis can avoid making the bad, dangerous throws, and opts for more high percentage/ less rewarding throws. We have to avoid the costly turnovers and eat up a little clock.

I think this will be a great game. We’ve had good teams go into FBS plays and play competitive. We’ve also had Ball State-like outings. If we take care of the ball, and don’t give up too many big plays, we win a close one.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

I think the pressure is all on CSU. Generally nobody but the home team fans expect a win when FCS plays FBS (with the exception of NDSU who have won 6 in a row against FBS). CSU is off to a 1-3 start so you know a loss to an FCS team would be crushing to that team and program. I don't think CSU will under estimate the Redbirds but I also think if the game is close they will feel the pressure much more than ISU. The Birds should be able to play loose and focused. I expect a close game that probably come down to mistakes and turnovers. I will pick the Birds in a close game taking advantage of CSU mistakes. Go Redbirds!

 

[SoCalRedbird]

Anyone see a line for the game yet?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[chuckie1980]

I want an easy upset.
ISU----10----14----07----00----= 31
CSU---00----07----03----14----= 24

I want the Birds to win...and I do not want the excitement of victory to tame the roar that still exists in my soul from the Northwestern victory a few years back.

 

[normalbird]

Line is CSU by 6.5, O/U 58.