Prairie State Pigskin Playoff analysis

[Virginia Redbird]

This is a good balanced article about the Redbirds and Saluki's chances for a playoff berth. The conclusion is still pretty much the same. Win 8 games and you are likely invited to the dance. Win 7 games and you are nervous and hoping.

Playoff posturing: SIU Salukis, ISU Redbirds enter season’s stretch run

PrairieStatePigskin.com takes an in-depth look at the postseason chances for Southern Illinois and Illinois State.

prairiestatepigskin.com

 

[fourthandshort]

This is a good balanced article about the Redbirds and Saluki's chances for a playoff berth. The conclusion is still pretty much the same. Win 8 games and you are likely invited to the dance. Win 7 games and you are nervous and hoping.

Playoff posturing: SIU Salukis, ISU Redbirds enter season’s stretch run

PrairieStatePigskin.com takes an in-depth look at the postseason chances for Southern Illinois and Illinois State.

prairiestatepigskin.com

Very true for our Redbirds.

Though if I'm on that selection committee, SIU is a near lock at 7-4 and we are likely out. For simple reason, SIU has an FBS win over 4-4 NIU. And according to Massey SOS algorithm, they play a top 10 schedule, and ours is closer to 70th.

As for SIU, all you have to do is line their schedule/results up with any other bubble team, and they will be a lock at 7-4. Noting there is pretty good chance with NDSU and USD, and then ISUb and WIU, they will be 7-4 .. though have USD at home. But they lost to SDSU by just 7 .. high quality loss. They beat ranked Austin Peay by 26 .. a high quality win. And their only real blemish is the 31-3 egg they laid at YSU. In other words, only 1 bad loss .. all others are quality wins and losses.

p.s. not trolling by buddy .. this is same logic and language i alwyas use.

 

[Dmills]

2023 FCS Bracketology 3.0 — Playoff Predictions (11-1-2023)

Bracketology 3.0 for the 2023 FCS playoff bracket, including the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.

herosports.com

Herder has 4 SoCon teams in including 5-3 Western Carolina. I don't see that happening. I'm guessing they will end up with 2. maybee 3 teams.

 

[Dmills]

21. Villanova - improves to 7-2 with 45-33 W @ New Hampshire (4-5)
22. Western Carolina - improves to 6-3 with 28-25 W @ Wofford (0-9)
23. Austin Peay - improves to 7-2 with 33-30 OT W @ Eastern Kentucky (4-5)
24. Chattanooga - falls to 7-3 with 14-17 L vs Furman (8-1)
25. Youngstown State - improves to 6-3 with 19-7 W @ InSt (0-9)
26. William & Mary - falls to 5-4 with 8-24 L @ UAlbany (7-3)
27. Tennessee State - falls to 6-3 with 21-35 L @ Charleston Southern (4-5)
28. Richmond - improves to 6-3 with 44-13 W vs Campbell (4-4)
29. Holy Cross - improves to 6-3 with 28-24 W vs Lehigh (2-7)
30. Gardner-Webb - improves to 5-4 with 45-44 OT W @ Bryant (4-5)

Not very impressive results and a couple of near chokes. Appears the bubble teams did just enough to take care of business this week.

 

[fourthandshort]

2023 FCS Bracketology 3.0 — Playoff Predictions (11-1-2023)

Bracketology 3.0 for the 2023 FCS playoff bracket, including the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.

herosports.com

Herder has 4 SoCon teams in including 5-3 Western Carolina. I don't see that happening. I'm guessing they will end up with 2. maybee 3 teams.

Herder is usually better than this .. 4 socon makes no sense, 3 is even a stretch.

He has 6 MVFC in with 2 seeds (SDSU and SIU). I think USD is also making decent case for a seed. He also has YSU as the first out, so #25 ... putting 7 MVFC teams in his Top 25. Noting STATS has the same 7 in their top 22, but autobids are pushing YSU out. Coaches Poll has 6 in top 20. Massey Composite (avg of all 38 polls/systems) has 7 in top 16.

So it is looking like a 6 bid year for sure at this point. Though 3 more weeks of the MVFC war of attrition. But right now, the vibe is strong for 6 teams, with a 7th on the bubble.

 

[Dmills]

2023 FCS Bracketology 4.0 — Playoff Predictions (11-7-2023)

Bracketology 4.0 for the 2023 FCS playoff bracket, including the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.

herosports.com

 

[fourthandshort]

2023 FCS Bracketology 4.0 — Playoff Predictions (11-7-2023)

Bracketology 4.0 for the 2023 FCS playoff bracket, including the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.

herosports.com

YSU still on bubble as first team out, so we still have 6 bids, plus the first one out according to this source. But now have 3 Top 8 seeds including SDSU, USD, and UNI ... so now are 3 pt loss to UNI looks even better. Our only chance is to win out decisively, and then still need a lot of help from the other bubble teams. I still put it in the very unlikely category .. that is, <10% chance even if we finish 7-4 and win over UND/

And for those questioning my quality wins & losses vs weak wins & losses argument .. it is not my idea, it is the idea I have adopted. Yet, the world is catching up to my analysis of Incarnate Word .. it took a loss to a 4-4 team for them to finally be exposed. But this is what it means to have a bunch of weak wins against average/weak teams, vs having quality wins against weak/average teams. 2 weeks ago the Coaches Poll had them #4 and most other polls had them top 8 or 10.

Back to ISU ... our problem all along is we have a weak SOS, and no quality wins against ranked teams. But the larger point I was making is, we too could have been 7-1 like IW before their loss last weekend .. the difference ? We would have been 8-1 with their schedule this week and likely put more of those teams away. Granted they had to lose by 13 to a 4-4 team ranked #42 by Massey for them to finally get exposed. But many ranked teams has a weak loss . the difference ? IW was sunk by all of their weak wins.

per Hero Sports link this week .. note the resume and SOS argument by Hero Sports

"UIW going from Top 10 rankings to out of the playoff picture? It may be looking that way after its decisive loss to unranked Nicholls. UIW played a non-D1 opponent, and its game this week against Northwestern State is canceled. The best UIW can finish is now 8-2 overall with one FCS loss, seven D1 wins, no ranked wins, and a projected year-end SOS of 88th. I don’t know how that resume beats out YSU, SIU, Chattanooga, Elon, or UT Martin."

It is all about quality wins/losses vs weak wins/losses. There is no other way to do this. Not that every ranking or even playoff bid/seed is done right by every human voting .. but this is how you determine better teams with similar records. Anyone can look at a record and sort them numerically. But there are lot of teams with 8-3 and 7-4 records .. SOS and margins are the differentiator. Early in season our SOS was 70-80+ .. by end of season it will be low 40's .. not our usual top 10-15 playing in the MVFC plus a good FBS. Which is why we need a lot of help at 7-4 this season vs most prior seasons. And many of the teams on this bubble have similar or worse SOSs. But the committee will need tie breaker type games to make those Top 8 seed and bubble picks .. so our ability to put away bad teams with one quality ranked win would be UND on road, along with 2 quality losses, may be what puts us over the top. And is what sunk IW fast finally.

 

[Dmills]

2023 FCS Bracketology 4.0 — Playoff Predictions (11-7-2023)

Bracketology 4.0 for the 2023 FCS playoff bracket, including the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.

herosports.com

21. Western Carolina - improves to 7-3 with 58-7 W vs ETSU (2-8)
22. Southern Illinois - falls to 6-4 with 10-34 L @ NDSU (7-3)
23. Elon - falls to 5-5 with 24-38 L @ Richmond (7-3)
24. UT Martin - improves to 8-2 with 41-14 W vs SEMO (4-6) *should receive auto bid*
25. Youngstown State falls to 6-4 with 0-34 L vs SDSU (10-0)
26. Chattanooga - DNP - will finish season 7-4 barring an upset over Alabama
27. UIW - DNP
28. Richmond - improves to 7-3 with 38-24 W vs Elon (5-5)
29. Holy Cross - falls to 6-4 with 14-17 L @ FBS Army (4-6)
30. Central Arkansas improves to 7-3 with 27-24 W vs Eastern Kentucky (4-6) *see below smh*

 

[Dmills]

Eastern Illinois may finish the season 8-3 with losses to only Bowling Green, UT Martin, and SEMO.

 

[fourthandshort]

Eastern Illinois may finish the season 8-3 with losses to only Bowling Green, UT Martin, and SEMO.

Hard to figure this team out .. competitive against top 20-35 teams, but can't put away bad teams. Only blowout was ISUb in their first game without their starting QB. And EIU needed 4 picks (2 pick 6's), 2 fumbles, 1 safety to win 27-0.

On that note, ISUb (1-9) is a tougher team to figure out .. we smoked them by 37 with their starting QB. But UNI, UND, USD .. all top 10-25 teams played them with their starting QB and won by avg of only 9 pts. ISUb did similar thing last year playing us, UNI, NDSU, and YSU all within 5-6 pts only to finish 2-9. Moral victories mean a whole lot more when your a 1 and 2 win team, but that has to be very frustrating in Terr Haute the last 2 years.

Back to EIU, they will likely finish 8-3 and not make playoffs due to weak SOS and inability to put away the bad teams. But it may help our resume given this past weekends results ... MVFC and FCS bubble weakened overall. War of attrition in MVFC is expected, but it helped us this time if we can decisively at UND this week ... and a little more help from the bubble, without perception of MVFC weakening.

Which brings up 2019 again ... when MVFC weakening was cited the last 3 weeks of reg season. The widespread consensus was a weak year for MVFC .. only to dominate in playoffs. Only difference this season is the war of MVFC attrition/cannabilization didn't rear it's ugly head until game 10 weekend. In 2019 it "appeared" to happen a little earlier close to week 8 I think.

Appearances can be misleading !!!

Date		Opponent		Result	PF	PA
Sat 10-07		TN Martin	21 (8-2)	L OT	27	28
Sat 09-16		Illinois St	23 (6-4)	W	14	13
Sat 10-14	at	SE Missouri St	46 (4-6)	L	28	35
Sat 10-21		Bryant	60 (5-5)	W OT	25	24
Sat 11-11		Tennessee St	63 (6-4)	W	30	17
Thu 08-31	at	Indiana St	77 (1-9)	W	27	0
Sat 11-18 12:00.PM.ET	at	Robert Morris	94 (4-6)	85 %	27	14
Sat 11-04	at	Lindenwood	99 (3-7)	W	16	10
Sat 09-30	at	Northwestern LA	113 (0-6)	W	19	10
Sat 09-23		McNeese St	114 (0-9)	W	31	28
Sat 09-09	at	Bowling Green	(6-4)	L	15	38

 

[Dmills]

Of course the loss by UNI will be used to argue the MVFC is weak. Haley has 4 MVFC teams in and 2 seeds. SDSU might cakewalk to a 2nd national championship.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Of course the loss by UNI will be used to argue the MVFC is weak. Haley has 4 MVFC teams in and 2 seeds. SDSU might cakewalk to a 2nd national championship.

A rematch with Montana State may not be a cakewalk. SDSU needed a touchdown with a 1:30 left in the game to escaped with a 20-16 victory at home back in September.

 

[redbirds2000]

Eastern Illinois may finish the season 8-3 with losses to only Bowling Green, UT Martin, and SEMO.

ISU is 5-1 in the last six against EIU. That 1? Will probably cost them a play-off birth. It doesn't get anymore Redbird than that!

 

[Dmills]

A rematch with Montana State may not be a cakewalk. SDSU needed a touchdown with a 1:30 left in the game to escaped with a 20-16 victory at home back in September.

It may not be but I wouldn't be surprised. The Montana's might be the only teams that could keep it close. I see Furman as overrated.

 

[fourthandshort]

It may not be but I wouldn't be surprised. The Montana's might be the only teams that could keep it close. I see Furman as overrated.

Agree on Furman, though I still think they deserve a top 8 seed.

 

[BJJ guy]

Update

Playoff outlook for Illinois FCS teams looks ‘dicey,’ national analyst says

National FCS analysts share their thoughts on the postseason possibilities for Southern Illinois, Eastern Illinois and Illinois State

prairiestatepigskin.com

 

[Dmills]

EIU has had a very unimpressive 8 win season, assuming they win Saturday. Of course, the caveat is they beat us in a game we never should have lost. The game should not have been close. I sure hope the OVC-Big South doesn't get 3 teams in. EIU has had a good season but that sounds excessive.

 

[fourthandshort]

Update

Playoff outlook for Illinois FCS teams looks ‘dicey,’ national analyst says

National FCS analysts share their thoughts on the postseason possibilities for Southern Illinois, Eastern Illinois and Illinois State

prairiestatepigskin.com

I'm honestly very surprised Sam Herder has us on equal footing as SIU ... I just don't see this with both of us sitting 6-4 ... their SOS is much tougher. I happen to think our resume is better than EIU, as of today, and especially if we both win this weekend. We've been playing much better the latter half of season. The Massey computer has us #24 and EIU at #47 ... again, SOS after our very weak nonconf slate, shored up once we got into MVFC play. The Massey Composite of 38 polls/systems has us #23 and EIU # 41. Sagarin has us #15 (no way, but ..) and EIU #58 (also no way) .. but these computers are the most widely used for a reason. And what they do objectively is rank based on record, SOS and margins.

Other poster wondered what would happen if we had played SDSU schedule and said we would have zero wins. Exaggerated but fair point regarding our own SOS. But in reality, we would have had 3 wins for sure, and we'll see how we do against UND this week .. so maybe 4, but we'll see there. But here is how we did against SDSU cpm[ared to all the teams currently ranked ahead of us .. they play MoST at Home this week,

Mont St lost by 4
SIU lost by 7
NDSU lost by 17
Redbirds lost by 19 .. we were down 20-0 after Q1, but we played them mostly even after that once our offense got going and our defense finally settled down 2nd half down 34-14 .. giving up just 7 pts.
UND lost by 21
USD lost by 32
UNI lost by 35
YSU lost by 37

The only point is, we aren't as bad as many here want to believe. Yes the defense sucks at times, especially by Spack standards, but usually settles down after rough 1st halves against all the top teams we've played this season. And we are putting away weak teams as well or better than all the top MVFC teams, excl SDSU.

This is why Sam Herder still has us in the playoff conversion, even though I think were worse off than he thinks.

 

[Dmills]

2023 FCS Bracketology 5.0 — Playoff Predictions (11-15-2023)

Bracketology 5.0 for the 2023 FCS playoff bracket, including the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.

herosports.com

This is assuming we lose on Saturday. I still don't see much hope. I think we would be thrust onto the bubble with a win, but almost certainly on the outside. Interesting he has 5 teams in the field and then YSU and SIU first 2 out.

 

[fourthandshort]

So here's some teams to watch and some probable bad news for our playoff hopes:

1. Nicholls St of Southland played Thursday and won to clinch their conference auto bid - their reg season is over, so they clinched it. FYI, their Massey ranking is 39th. This means if there are any idiots on the selection committee who somehow think Incarnate Word is still a playoff team because they were actually good last year, lost several studs, and played noone this year ... a conference that deserves zero bids will get 2 bids. But auto bids are a given, so we may have just lost an at large bid opening for the MVFC. IW plays at a weak 4-4 Houston Christian ... we need an upset here - but Massey has IW winning by 21. We need IW to lose at HC to ensure Southland only gets 1 bid.

2. NC Central of MEAC .. NCC got destroyed by a weak 5-5 Howard by 30 last week. So suddenly another weak autobid conference could get a bid they don't deserve .. depending on who gets the Celebration Bowl bid against SWAC. Issue is there is a 3 way tie for 1st in MEAC. And 8-2 NCC, who is ranked #53 by Massey is still considered a playoff bid ranking 14/17 ... just plain stupid. And NCC plays a very bad 1-9 Del St at home. More stupidity on this MEAC autobid .. they get this autobid for a 5 game conference season !!! Now, the champion usually accepts the Celebration Bowl bid and very understandably .. it is a great event by any measure. But if the conference has a tie, they have their own tie breaker, and if 5-5 Howard or 4-5 Morgan St wins the ties breaker, there is good chance 8-2 NCC will get an at large for FCS .. because they are currently ranked 14/17 due simply to their 8-2 record against a #94 SOS. So for those reasons, we need NCC to win their easy game, AND Morgan St to beat Howard to ensure NCC gets the Celebration invite. This ensures MEAC gets no bids, as it should be this year.

3. Watch CAA ... if they get more than 3 bids, that will be a mistake. Villanova, Delaware, and Albany all deserve bids despite playing mostly average or weak schedules .. but they are legit top 12 to 24 and deserve bids. Next 2 up are 7-3 Richmond and 6-4 W&M .. neither deserves a bid. And they play each other today, as if the winner of 2 undeserving teams will turn one into a deserving team. Issue with CAA is they have a revolving door and are currently up to 15 teams .. added a lot of bad teams, and Richmond played the 5 worst.

.... 7-3 Richmond is 6-1 in CAA, but has losses to 5-5 Hampton and 4-5 Morgan St .. both at home and both worse than our loss to probably 8-3 EIU. They beat 0-10 Stony Brook at home by just 1 pt. Their SOS ranks #83. 4 of those 6 conf wins are against bottom 4 teams. The other 2 wins are against .500 level teams. Their conf SOS ranks 15th of 15 CAA teams .. dead last. They play at 6-4 W&M today. We need Richmond to lose at W&M .. or they will be tied for 1st place in CAA .. a wet paper tiger.

.... 6-4 W&M has played just 1 of the top 3 CAA teams and lost to #3 Albany 24-8. Their best win is over 4-6 Monmouth at home by just 3 and their Massey SOS rank is #63 . If they beat Richmond at home today, that will likely knock 7-4 Richmond off the bubble. Their only notable win will be over a 7-4 Richmond, if they win today. Their best win to date is over 4-6 by 3 at home. And they played many other weak teams with most wins under 1-2 TDS and none over 25 pts. We need them to beat Richmond and then the selection committee to recognize how watered down this conference is, and how consistently they underperform in playoffs whenever they get 4 or more teams

Ive followed this closely. CAA always crap the bed when they get 4 or more teams. MVFC always delivers when we get 4 or more teams .. excluding NDSU.

So those are the conferences/teams to watch .. the ones where an extra bid could be doled out unfairly and at the expense of the MVFC teams. Been tracking this for while in terms of SOS relative to various conferences. MVFC deserves 6 bids this year, arguably 7, but that won't happen. If we win by bigish margin, we will be back on the bubble if other things fall our way .. not changing my view of slim even if we win, but it is possible depending on above and how UNI, SIU, and YSU do today.

Either way, I am repping MVFC and what is fair. The MVFC playoff record against all other conferences is .650 EXCLuding NDSU .. meaning, we win 2 out of 3 playoff games against all other conferences, without NDSUs .950 win %. We could have won even more if not for all the MVFC teams that got knocked out by NDSU.

It's playoffs .. fair is fair.