crazzymark
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- Jul 18, 2017
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In the valley, everything went Illinois State way last week. All we have to do is win next week and I believe we're in the playoffs we'll finish 4th in the valley
Yeah, I'm getting same sense looking at the various bubble analyses out there. I was thinking we still had like a 10% chance if we won out to go 7-4. But we had to squeak by MoST. And while the MVFC bubble improved for us last weekend, we'll still be on outside looking in from a distance given our SOS. So now thinking it is less than that, even if things go our way this weekend. Oddly, even with EIU probably going 8-3 hurting us a lot less than we thought 7 weeks ago when it happened. But if we had won that game, we're a lock at 8-3, assuming we beat UND this weekend.Unfortunately, I think Matt and 2000 are gonna be right. While 7-4 in the MVFC usually puts teams in, that usually comes with an FBS game on the schedule. My fear is all that went wrong at EIU keeps us out.
IF the Birds beat North Dakota Saturday they will finish with a 5-3 Conference record.In the valley, everything went Illinois State way last week. All we have to do is win next week and I believe we're in the playoffs we'll finish 4th in the valley
There could be a log jam for 3rd place in MVFC including us .. but I doubt we win any tiebreakers.Yeah, I was looking at some of the breakdown from guys on AGS, and I’m just not that optimistic.
We could finish fourth, but we also didn’t play NDSU and SIU. It’s been my issue the whole year, but the resume lacks quality. We all knew that EIU debacle was going to bite us in the ass.
Even while agreeing our chances are somewhre between slim and none, closer to none. Have you examined CAA bubble teams on same basis ... looking simply at records ? I'll do it and then go deeper.IF the Birds beat North Dakota Saturday they will finish with a 5-3 Conference record.
There five wins will have been against:
0-8 Western Illinois
1-7 Indiana State
1-7 Murray State
3-5 Missouri State
4-4 North Dakota
OOC Wins:
Lindenwood
Dayton
OOC loss:
Eastern Illinois
And how will the committee take into consideration that Illinois State played the bottom 5 teams for their 5 Wins but did not play:
#5 South Dakota 7-1 (9-2)
#9 North Dakota St 4-3 (7-3) (@UNI not included)
#16 Southern Illinois 4-4 (7-4)
Does this look like an at-large resume?
Which team/s do you see Illinois State getting in the playoffs over:Even while agreeing our chances are somewhre between slim and none, closer to none. Have you examined CAA bubble teams on same basis ... looking simply at records ? I'll do it and then go deeper.
Richmond (7-3, SOS #83) has yet to play any of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost at home to 5-5 Hampton (Massey #69) by 17 and again at home to 4-5 Morgan St (Massey #75) by 7. Both worse than our EIU loss by 3. They beat 0-10 Stony Brook (#108) by 1, and then 2-8 Maine (#79) at home by 11. Neither as good as all of our blowouts of weak teams.
W&M (6-4, SOS #63) has yet to play 3 of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost to 8-3 Albany 24-8. Their best win is over 4-6 Monmouth (#51) bu 3 at home. They lost to 4-6 Towson (#55) by 10 at home. The feasted on 6 teams ranked #62 or worse ... by margins in order of 10, 21, 8, 25, 17.
Richmond (#5 CAA) will play at W&M (#4 CAA) this week. If Richmond loses as Massey projected, both teams will be 7-4, playing weaker schedules than we did AND with most wins by much lesser margins than ours. Both Richmond and W&M are on the bubble and likely to get bids because they are in CAA. But the CAA has 15 teams now, and there are far worse scheduling disparities than we have in MVFC.
I'm quite sure our resume is better than the #4 and #5 CAA teams. And right now, were the #8 team in MVFC. But they are on the bubble and we aren't ... and we may all be 7-4 when season ends, again with our being against toiugher SOS and with wins by greater margins and quality losses by lesser margins.
That said, we are on outside looking in .. but still not as bad as some think because we focus inward, and ignore the inequities of SOS outside our conference. SOS means a lot, quality wins/losses also mean a lot .. above should make that clear.
Yep, agreed it is tough uphill sledding in MVFC and while 7 may be the correct/fair # of bids this year ... right now, it looks like a solid 6 bids.Which team/s do you see Illinois State getting in the playoffs over:
South Dakota State (Auto-bid)
South Dakota
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
Youngstown State
Southern Illinois
Do you think that the Committee is going to take SEVEN teams from the MVFC? I don’t?
So comparing teams from other conferences is probably irrelevant.
Meant to add, we put away a lot of teams .. in descending order of margin .. 41, 37, 37, 31, 18 .. even the 18 pt win against WIU, we outgained them around 470 to 200 ... not that I expect selection committee to look up stats at that level. But it all just makes a point about playing in MVFC.Even while agreeing our chances are somewhre between slim and none, closer to none. Have you examined CAA bubble teams on same basis ... looking simply at records ? I'll do it and then go deeper.
Richmond (7-3, SOS #83) has yet to play any of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost at home to 5-5 Hampton (Massey #69) by 17 and again at home to 4-5 Morgan St (Massey #75) by 7. Both worse than our EIU loss by 3. They beat 0-10 Stony Brook (#108) by 1, and then 2-8 Maine (#79) at home by 11. Neither as good as all of our blowouts of weak teams.
W&M (6-4, SOS #63) has yet to play 3 of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost to 8-3 Albany 24-8. Their best win is over 4-6 Monmouth (#51) bu 3 at home. They lost to 4-6 Towson (#55) by 10 at home. The feasted on 6 teams ranked #62 or worse ... by margins in order of 10, 21, 8, 25, 17.
Richmond (#5 CAA) will play at W&M (#4 CAA) this week. If Richmond loses as Massey projected, both teams will be 7-4, playing weaker schedules than we did AND with most wins by much lesser margins than ours. Both Richmond and W&M are on the bubble and likely to get bids because they are in CAA. But the CAA has 15 teams now, and there are far worse scheduling disparities than we have in MVFC.
I'm quite sure our resume is better than the #4 and #5 CAA teams. And right now, were the #8 team in MVFC. But they are on the bubble and we aren't ... and we may all be 7-4 when season ends, again with our being against toiugher SOS and with wins by greater margins and quality losses by lesser margins.
That said, we are on outside looking in .. but still not as bad as some think because we focus inward, and ignore the inequities of SOS outside our conference. SOS means a lot, quality wins/losses also mean a lot .. above should make that clear.
Nope.IF the Birds beat North Dakota Saturday they will finish with a 5-3 Conference record.
There five wins will have been against:
0-8 Western Illinois
1-7 Indiana State
1-7 Murray State
3-5 Missouri State
4-4 North Dakota
OOC Wins:
Lindenwood
Dayton
OOC loss:
Eastern Illinois
And how will the committee take into consideration that Illinois State played the bottom 5 teams for their 5 Wins but did not play:
#5 South Dakota 7-1 (9-2)
#9 North Dakota St 4-3 (7-3) (@UNI not included)
#16 Southern Illinois 4-4 (7-4)
Does this look like an at-large resume?
NoIF the Birds beat North Dakota Saturday they will finish with a 5-3 Conference record.
There five wins will have been against:
0-8 Western Illinois
1-7 Indiana State
1-7 Murray State
3-5 Missouri State
4-4 North Dakota
OOC Wins:
Lindenwood
Dayton
OOC loss:
Eastern Illinois
And how will the committee take into consideration that Illinois State played the bottom 5 teams for their 5 Wins but did not play:
#5 South Dakota 7-1 (9-2)
#9 North Dakota St 4-3 (7-3) (@UNI not included)
#16 Southern Illinois 4-4 (7-4)
Does this look like an at-large resume?