Perfect Storm

[crazzymark]

In the valley, everything went Illinois State way last week. All we have to do is win next week and I believe we're in the playoffs we'll finish 4th in the valley

 

[redbirds2000]

While I hope they get in, their play-off resume is not good. They would have 1 win over a team with a winning record. And that team would be 6-5. I don't even think EIU is on the play off radar and they should go 8-3. At 8-3 EIU should be in over ISU.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Yeah, I was looking at some of the breakdown from guys on AGS, and I’m just not that optimistic.

We could finish fourth, but we also didn’t play NDSU and SIU. It’s been my issue the whole year, but the resume lacks quality. We all knew that EIU debacle was going to bite us in the ass.

 

[cpacmel]

Unfortunately, I think Matt and 2000 are gonna be right. While 7-4 in the MVFC usually puts teams in, that usually comes with an FBS game on the schedule. My fear is all that went wrong at EIU keeps us out.

 

[fourthandshort]

Unfortunately, I think Matt and 2000 are gonna be right. While 7-4 in the MVFC usually puts teams in, that usually comes with an FBS game on the schedule. My fear is all that went wrong at EIU keeps us out.

Yeah, I'm getting same sense looking at the various bubble analyses out there. I was thinking we still had like a 10% chance if we won out to go 7-4. But we had to squeak by MoST. And while the MVFC bubble improved for us last weekend, we'll still be on outside looking in from a distance given our SOS. So now thinking it is less than that, even if things go our way this weekend. Oddly, even with EIU probably going 8-3 hurting us a lot less than we thought 7 weeks ago when it happened. But if we had won that game, we're a lock at 8-3, assuming we beat UND this weekend.

Might not be at 0%, but we need a whole lot more help that I would have guessed going into last game ... SOS and EIU killed our chances.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

In the valley, everything went Illinois State way last week. All we have to do is win next week and I believe we're in the playoffs we'll finish 4th in the valley

IF the Birds beat North Dakota Saturday they will finish with a 5-3 Conference record.
There five wins will have been against:
0-8 Western Illinois
1-7 Indiana State
1-7 Murray State
3-5 Missouri State
4-4 North Dakota

OOC Wins:
Lindenwood
Dayton

OOC loss:
Eastern Illinois

And how will the committee take into consideration that Illinois State played the bottom 5 teams for their 5 Wins but did not play:
#5 South Dakota 7-1 (9-2)
#9 North Dakota St 4-3 (7-3) (@UNI not included)
#16 Southern Illinois 4-4 (7-4)


Does this look like an at-large resume?

 

[fourthandshort]

Yeah, I was looking at some of the breakdown from guys on AGS, and I’m just not that optimistic.

We could finish fourth, but we also didn’t play NDSU and SIU. It’s been my issue the whole year, but the resume lacks quality. We all knew that EIU debacle was going to bite us in the ass.

There could be a log jam for 3rd place in MVFC including us .. but I doubt we win any tiebreakers.

MVFC #1 SDSU plays MoST at home - win. USD (8-2, 6-1) plays at WIU - win. So 1 & 2 are locked. And there could realistically be a 4 way tie for 3rd after this weekend.

First acknowledge we are the 8th best team so far. Then lets assume for discussion purposes, we win by 10 this weekend .. meaning a decisive impressive road win against a team ranked 14/17. Even then, we are very likely tied for 3rd at 5-3 with NDSU, UNI, and YSU. While SIU (7-4, 4-4, assume they win at ISUb) lurks right behind us in conference, but well ahead of us in FCS rankings.

• NDSU (7-3, 4-3) plays UNI (6-4, 5-2) at UNI
  • NDSU wins .. NDSU is lock at 8-3 (5-3), UNI (6-5, 5-3) is on bubble, but played SOS #1 - so UNI would still be viewed ahead of us in FCS.
  • UNI wins .. NDSU is still a lock at 7-4 (4-4) having played SOS #19, UNI is a lock at 7-4 (6-2) having played SOS #1
• YSU is 6-4 (4-3) plays at Murray St, who we just smoked and they lost their QB. Assuming they win, they should be a lock at 7-4 (5-3) having played SOS #8.
• SIU is 6-4 (3-4) plays ISUb at home - though ISUb has been playing most teams tough, SIU is at home playing for their playoff lives. They are presumably a lock at 7-4 (4-4) playing SOS #5 and an FBS win agianst 4-6 NIU. But if they lose, they might not have strong enough case at 6-5 (3-5), since they would be tied for 8th at best in MVFC ... this is astounding, as SIU is clearly a playoff level team .. several quality wins and quality losses.

Bottom line, best case scenario, we would surpass UND (6-5, 4-4) with a decisive win on their field. We could surpass SIU if they lose (at home to ISUb) - very unlikely We could maybe surpass YSU, if they loss at Murray St - also very unlikely We could maybe pull even with UNI if they lose badly at home to NDSU - which is very possible given they just got smoked by MoST on road and NDSU seems to be finding their playoff legs.

But even if all 3 of those things happen, many would still have those teams ahead of us .. other than maybe SIU. But then MVFC will be wrongly condemned like 2019 for not being as strong as they thought. And we'll drop to 5 maybe 4 bids, even though we clearly deserve 6 bids to this point. But weak losses would rightly cast some doubt, even if not entirely fair ... like 2019.

 

[fourthandshort]

IF the Birds beat North Dakota Saturday they will finish with a 5-3 Conference record.
There five wins will have been against:
0-8 Western Illinois
1-7 Indiana State
1-7 Murray State
3-5 Missouri State
4-4 North Dakota

OOC Wins:
Lindenwood
Dayton

OOC loss:
Eastern Illinois

And how will the committee take into consideration that Illinois State played the bottom 5 teams for their 5 Wins but did not play:
#5 South Dakota 7-1 (9-2)
#9 North Dakota St 4-3 (7-3) (@UNI not included)
#16 Southern Illinois 4-4 (7-4)


Does this look like an at-large resume?

Even while agreeing our chances are somewhre between slim and none, closer to none. Have you examined CAA bubble teams on same basis ... looking simply at records ? I'll do it and then go deeper.

Richmond (7-3, SOS #83) has yet to play any of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost at home to 5-5 Hampton (Massey #69) by 17 and again at home to 4-5 Morgan St (Massey #75) by 7. Both worse than our EIU loss by 3. They beat 0-10 Stony Brook (#108) by 1, and then 2-8 Maine (#79) at home by 11. Neither as good as all of our blowouts of weak teams.

W&M (6-4, SOS #63) has yet to play 3 of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost to 8-3 Albany 24-8. Their best win is over 4-6 Monmouth (#51) bu 3 at home. They lost to 4-6 Towson (#55) by 10 at home. The feasted on 6 teams ranked #62 or worse ... by margins in order of 10, 21, 8, 25, 17.

Richmond (#5 CAA) will play at W&M (#4 CAA) this week. If Richmond loses as Massey projected, both teams will be 7-4, playing weaker schedules than we did AND with most wins by much lesser margins than ours. Both Richmond and W&M are on the bubble and likely to get bids because they are in CAA. But the CAA has 15 teams now, and there are far worse scheduling disparities than we have in MVFC.

I'm quite sure our resume is better than the #4 and #5 CAA teams. And right now, were the #8 team in MVFC. But they are on the bubble and we aren't ... and we may all be 7-4 when season ends, again with our being against toiugher SOS and with wins by greater margins and quality losses by lesser margins.

That said, we are on outside looking in .. but still not as bad as some think because we focus inward, and ignore the inequities of SOS outside our conference. SOS means a lot, quality wins/losses also mean a lot .. above should make that clear.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Even while agreeing our chances are somewhre between slim and none, closer to none. Have you examined CAA bubble teams on same basis ... looking simply at records ? I'll do it and then go deeper.

Richmond (7-3, SOS #83) has yet to play any of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost at home to 5-5 Hampton (Massey #69) by 17 and again at home to 4-5 Morgan St (Massey #75) by 7. Both worse than our EIU loss by 3. They beat 0-10 Stony Brook (#108) by 1, and then 2-8 Maine (#79) at home by 11. Neither as good as all of our blowouts of weak teams.

W&M (6-4, SOS #63) has yet to play 3 of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost to 8-3 Albany 24-8. Their best win is over 4-6 Monmouth (#51) bu 3 at home. They lost to 4-6 Towson (#55) by 10 at home. The feasted on 6 teams ranked #62 or worse ... by margins in order of 10, 21, 8, 25, 17.

Richmond (#5 CAA) will play at W&M (#4 CAA) this week. If Richmond loses as Massey projected, both teams will be 7-4, playing weaker schedules than we did AND with most wins by much lesser margins than ours. Both Richmond and W&M are on the bubble and likely to get bids because they are in CAA. But the CAA has 15 teams now, and there are far worse scheduling disparities than we have in MVFC.

I'm quite sure our resume is better than the #4 and #5 CAA teams. And right now, were the #8 team in MVFC. But they are on the bubble and we aren't ... and we may all be 7-4 when season ends, again with our being against toiugher SOS and with wins by greater margins and quality losses by lesser margins.

That said, we are on outside looking in .. but still not as bad as some think because we focus inward, and ignore the inequities of SOS outside our conference. SOS means a lot, quality wins/losses also mean a lot .. above should make that clear.

Which team/s do you see Illinois State getting in the playoffs over:

South Dakota State (Auto-bid)
South Dakota
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
Youngstown State
Southern Illinois

Do you think that the Committee is going to take SEVEN teams from the MVFC? I don’t?
So comparing teams from other conferences is probably irrelevant.

 

[fourthandshort]

Which team/s do you see Illinois State getting in the playoffs over:

South Dakota State (Auto-bid)
South Dakota
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
Youngstown State
Southern Illinois

Do you think that the Committee is going to take SEVEN teams from the MVFC? I don’t?
So comparing teams from other conferences is probably irrelevant.

Yep, agreed it is tough uphill sledding in MVFC and while 7 may be the correct/fair # of bids this year ... right now, it looks like a solid 6 bids.

But I was more making the point about SOS and quality wins/losses. That said, if everything went our way and the committee does right in CAA (3 teams), and Southland (1 autobid) ... in order of lets say, "less unlikely":

1. UND .. assuming we win, then it's realistic we could pass them
2. YSU .. they would have to lose to MuST, not likely - but if they lose, we will pass them. If they win, zero chance.
3. SIU ... they would have to lose to ISUb, which is more likely than YSU losing. But SIU has been ranked pretty high all year - which is why i put them 3rd least likely.
4. UNI ... doubtful even if they lose .. if 6-5 / 5-3, they beat us at our place, and they have #1 SOS. So least likely to pass, even if all 4 lose.

 

[fourthandshort]

Even while agreeing our chances are somewhre between slim and none, closer to none. Have you examined CAA bubble teams on same basis ... looking simply at records ? I'll do it and then go deeper.

Richmond (7-3, SOS #83) has yet to play any of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost at home to 5-5 Hampton (Massey #69) by 17 and again at home to 4-5 Morgan St (Massey #75) by 7. Both worse than our EIU loss by 3. They beat 0-10 Stony Brook (#108) by 1, and then 2-8 Maine (#79) at home by 11. Neither as good as all of our blowouts of weak teams.

W&M (6-4, SOS #63) has yet to play 3 of the top 4 teams in CAA. They lost to 8-3 Albany 24-8. Their best win is over 4-6 Monmouth (#51) bu 3 at home. They lost to 4-6 Towson (#55) by 10 at home. The feasted on 6 teams ranked #62 or worse ... by margins in order of 10, 21, 8, 25, 17.

Richmond (#5 CAA) will play at W&M (#4 CAA) this week. If Richmond loses as Massey projected, both teams will be 7-4, playing weaker schedules than we did AND with most wins by much lesser margins than ours. Both Richmond and W&M are on the bubble and likely to get bids because they are in CAA. But the CAA has 15 teams now, and there are far worse scheduling disparities than we have in MVFC.

I'm quite sure our resume is better than the #4 and #5 CAA teams. And right now, were the #8 team in MVFC. But they are on the bubble and we aren't ... and we may all be 7-4 when season ends, again with our being against toiugher SOS and with wins by greater margins and quality losses by lesser margins.

That said, we are on outside looking in .. but still not as bad as some think because we focus inward, and ignore the inequities of SOS outside our conference. SOS means a lot, quality wins/losses also mean a lot .. above should make that clear.

Meant to add, we put away a lot of teams .. in descending order of margin .. 41, 37, 37, 31, 18 .. even the 18 pt win against WIU, we outgained them around 470 to 200 ... not that I expect selection committee to look up stats at that level. But it all just makes a point about playing in MVFC.

And I believe I made a strong valid case for the #8 MVFC team currently having a better resume than the #4 and #5 CAA teams ... assuming all are 7-4 after next week. And it's not actually that close when you look beyond records and drill down on SOS and margin.

But yes, we have to beat UND first. But suppose we lose another 3 pt game to a ranked team on road like UND ... I think the case still holds up for us a 6-5 having better resume than the #4 and #5 CAA teams .. which I have to imagine probably stunned some naysayers on our forum.

 

[redbirds2000]

IF the Birds beat North Dakota Saturday they will finish with a 5-3 Conference record.
There five wins will have been against:
0-8 Western Illinois
1-7 Indiana State
1-7 Murray State
3-5 Missouri State
4-4 North Dakota

OOC Wins:
Lindenwood
Dayton

OOC loss:
Eastern Illinois

And how will the committee take into consideration that Illinois State played the bottom 5 teams for their 5 Wins but did not play:
#5 South Dakota 7-1 (9-2)
#9 North Dakota St 4-3 (7-3) (@UNI not included)
#16 Southern Illinois 4-4 (7-4)


Does this look like an at-large resume?

Nope.

 

[redbirds2000]

Good thing we didn't play SDSU's conference schedule. We would most likely have 0 wins going into the last week.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

IF the Birds beat North Dakota Saturday they will finish with a 5-3 Conference record.
There five wins will have been against:
0-8 Western Illinois
1-7 Indiana State
1-7 Murray State
3-5 Missouri State
4-4 North Dakota

OOC Wins:
Lindenwood
Dayton

OOC loss:
Eastern Illinois

And how will the committee take into consideration that Illinois State played the bottom 5 teams for their 5 Wins but did not play:
#5 South Dakota 7-1 (9-2)
#9 North Dakota St 4-3 (7-3) (@UNI not included)
#16 Southern Illinois 4-4 (7-4)


Does this look like an at-large resume?

No

 

[Dmills]