North Dakota - Quality Win

[Total Red]

I am anticipating that this will be the last Redbird Football game of the year but I'm as excited about it as any game we've played.
The Redbirds have won 6 games this season and at times (like last week) they have played extremely well. Even so, the Redbirds have not beaten a team with a winning record. We don't have a quality win. I want one bad. I think they do too. I really wish Zack could be there because he came close against UNI and YSU. I'm sure he would like a crack at UND. But as I miss Zack, I'm also fired up about Tommy. The offense has been on fire and it didn't miss a beat with the QB change. 508 yards of offense at Mo. St and 510 yards of offense with Tommy against Murray St. Somebody is doing something right.
North Dakota is a quality team but the Redbirds have a shot at a Quality Win. Do It.

 

[ISUBU]

I consider this to essentially be a playoff game. I expect that the winner plays on and the loser goes home.

 

[cpacmel]

Illinois State +3.5

Over / under 58.5

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

I consider this to essentially be a playoff game. I expect that the winner plays on and the loser goes home.

I’d say if North Dakota wins, they are in
If the Redbirds win, they are both out

 

[fourthandshort]

I’d say if North Dakota wins, they are in
If the Redbirds win, they are both out

unfortunately, agreed ... 2 weeks ago I put us at 10% probability with we beat MoST and UND. We squeaked by MoST, and the bubble since grew .. neither helped, even with a 10 pt win this week.

So .... let's hope for bigger win (21 pts ??), cross our fingers, and blow some fairy dust.

 

[fourthandshort]

Illinois State +3.5

Over / under 58.5

so Vegas has UND winning a 32-28 type game. Going to be 47 sunny, very light winds. So cool and otherwise great fall day. Receivers wont need stickem, but need will need to secure those catches a little more than usual.

UND had very good overall balance . .they can run and pass, and they are strong offensively, and good enough defensively. Their Massey SOS is 16, so they've had notably tougher schedule. Our defense is improving slowly, and theirs isn't weak, nor is it strong .. they give up 5.9 yds/play to rank 7th in MVFC. Offensively, were probably close overall, though we getting 430 yds/gm to their 367/gm ... but theyve played the tougher schedule. Massey has them winning by 5 .. just over the +3 home teams usually get

As for common opponents, it goes as follows:

- ISUb .. we beat them by 37, UND beat them by 3 .. big edge Redbirds
- MuST .. we beat them by 37, UND beat them by 14 .. big edge Redbirds
- WIU .. we beat them by 16, UND beat the, by 39 .. big edge UND
- UNI .. we lost by 3, they lost by 27 .. big edge Redbirds
- SDSU .. we lost by 19, they lost by 21 .. even

Non-common opponents .. they beat NDSU by 25 and lost to USD by just 4 ... big edge UND.

Momentum ... in last 4 games, they've played 3 of 4 against common opponents, where we had a big edge per above: UNI, then ISUb, then MuST. I think our defense is slowly coming around.

Key Injuries ... we lost our stud QB, but got a surprising performance from our backup QB Rittenhouse and a more creative game plan from our OC. So while UND now has some tape on Rittenhouse, it is limited. And we'll see if that experience against a weaker team helped Rittenhouse prepare for a much tougher game.

And using some stretch analysis .. MuST has #14 SOS compared to UNDs #16 SOS .. so same level of opponents.

UND defense gives up 5.9 yds/play overall. MuST is just below them at 6.1 yds/play. Their run defense 8th of 12 in yds/play and yds/game, though definitely more stout than MuST. Their pass defense is 7th of 12 in QBR but 9th of 12 in pass yds/play .. barely better than MuST.

Whether this translates to our ability to move the against UND, we shall see. But we should be able to pass a little against these guys. It will be a step up for Rittenhouse, but very glad he already has 2 weeks and 1 game under is belt.

Of course I am picking my Redbirds, but only a little koolaid required. We're improving, and they have very little on our new QB who got off to a nice start last week.

Redbirds win 34-28 !!

p.s. if we weren't going to make playoffs anyway, I'm really glad we're getting to see Rittenhouse these last 2 weeks .. huge for him and helps for next season.

 

[normalbird]

so Vegas has UND winning a 32-28 type game. Going to be 47 sunny, very light winds. So cool and otherwise great fall day. Receivers wont need stickem, but need will need to secure those catches a little more than usual.

UND had very good overall balance . .they can run and pass, and they are strong offensively, and good enough defensively. Their Massey SOS is 16, so they've had notably tougher schedule. Our defense is improving slowly, and theirs isn't weak, nor is it strong .. they give up 5.9 yds/play to rank 7th in MVFC. Offensively, were probably close overall, though we getting 430 yds/gm to their 367/gm ... but theyve played the tougher schedule. Massey has them winning by 5 .. just over the +3 home teams usually get

As for common opponents, it goes as follows:

- ISUb .. we beat them by 37, UND beat them by 3 .. big edge Redbirds
- MuST .. we beat them by 37, UND beat them by 14 .. big edge Redbirds
- WIU .. we beat them by 16, UND beat the, by 39 .. big edge UND
- UNI .. we lost by 3, they lost by 27 .. big edge Redbirds
- SDSU .. we lost by 19, they lost by 21 .. even

Non-common opponents .. they beat NDSU by 25 and lost to USD by just 4 ... big edge UND.

Momentum ... in last 4 games, they've played 3 of 4 against common opponents, where we had a big edge per above: UNI, then ISUb, then MuST. I think our defense is slowly coming around.

Key Injuries ... we lost our stud QB, but got a surprising performance from our backup QB Rittenhouse and a more creative game plan from our OC. So while UND now has some tape on Rittenhouse, it is limited. And we'll see if that experience against a weaker team helped Rittenhouse prepare for a much tougher game.

And using some stretch analysis .. MuST has #14 SOS compared to UNDs #16 SOS .. so same level of opponents.

UND defense gives up 5.9 yds/play overall. MuST is just below them at 6.1 yds/play. Their run defense 8th of 12 in yds/play and yds/game, though definitely more stout than MuST. Their pass defense is 7th of 12 in QBR but 9th of 12 in pass yds/play .. barely better than MuST.

Whether this translates to our ability to move the against UND, we shall see. But we should be able to pass a little against these guys. It will be a step up for Rittenhouse, but very glad he already has 2 weeks and 1 game under is belt.

Of course I am picking my Redbirds, but only a little koolaid required. We're improving, and they have very little on our new QB who got off to a nice start last week.

Redbirds win 34-28 !!

p.s. if we weren't going to make playoffs anyway, I'm really glad we're getting to see Rittenhouse these last 2 weeks .. huge for him and helps for next season.

Stellar analysis! All that’s left is to play the game.

 

[Phantom]

Just find a way to win and go out on a high note. We aren't sniffing the playoffs. Would be both good and disappointing to finish 7-4, and hugely disappointing to finish 6-5 all things considered. Knew that EIU game would bite us in the ass. Take care of biz that night and we are at worst a somewhat comfortable 7-4 and still in, if not 8-3 or better and safely in. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

 

[Dmills]

so Vegas has UND winning a 32-28 type game. Going to be 47 sunny, very light winds. So cool and otherwise great fall day. Receivers wont need stickem, but need will need to secure those catches a little more than usual.

The Alerus Center in Grand Forks is a dome

 

[topiarydan]

Whoever wins is in as 5th team ino. SDSU, SD, NDState seem like gimmes. SIU, YSU, UNI and UND/ISU fighting for final assured 2 spots (perhaps 3 if MVC is lucky). Gonna be a tough game - we need to win turnover and penalty war - I think it comes down to a Wagner 45 yarder walk off to send us to the playoffs

 

[Total Red]

The Alerus Center in Grand Forks is a dome

And even though the weather outside in Normal has been fine this week the Redbirds have been practicing inside the IPF in preparation.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Whoever wins is in as 5th team ino. SDSU, SD, NDState seem like gimmes. SIU, YSU, UNI and UND/ISU fighting for final assured 2 spots (perhaps 3 if MVC is lucky). Gonna be a tough game - we need to win turnover and penalty war - I think it comes down to a Wagner 45 yarder walk off to send us to the playoffs

Northern Iowa would be 5-3 if they lose to NDSU (with a win they are automatic)
Illinois State would be 5-3 (if they win @ UND)
Northern Iowa has wins against:
Illinois State
Youngstown State
North Dakota

OOC:
Northern Iowa Wins:
Weber State
@ Idaho State
Loss
@ Iowa State

Illinois State Wins:
Dayton
Lindenwood
Loss @ Eastern Illinois

Where do you see the Redbirds getting in over Northern Iowa?

 

[BJJ guy]

Northern Iowa would be 6-5. We would be 7-4. They don't just look at the conference record.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Whoever wins is in as 5th team ino. SDSU, SD, NDState seem like gimmes. SIU, YSU, UNI and UND/ISU fighting for final assured 2 spots (perhaps 3 if MVC is lucky). Gonna be a tough game - we need to win turnover and penalty war - I think it comes down to a Wagner 45 yarder walk off to send us to the playoffs

Youngstown State with a Win @ Murray State would be 5-3 (7-4)
Illinois State with a Win @ North Dakota would be 5-3 (7-4)
OCC:
Youngstown State lost to Ohio State
Illinois State lost to Eastern Illinois

Youngstown State has a Win over SIU (31-3)
Illinois St. would have a Win over North Dakota

Youngstown State beat Illinois State

How do you see the Redbirds getting in over Youngstown State?

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Whoever wins is in as 5th team ino. SDSU, SD, NDState seem like gimmes. SIU, YSU, UNI and UND/ISU fighting for final assured 2 spots (perhaps 3 if MVC is lucky). Gonna be a tough game - we need to win turnover and penalty war - I think it comes down to a Wagner 45 yarder walk off to send us to the playoffs

Southern Illinois with a home Win against Indiana State will be 4-4 (7-4)
Southern Illinois OOC Wins:
Northern Illinois
Southeast Missouri State
#12 Austin Peay

Illinois State OOC Wins:
Dayton
Lindenwood

Southern Illinois did not have an OOC loss
Illinois State OOC loss: Eastern Illinois

How do you see the Redbirds getting in over Southern Illinois?

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Northern Iowa would be 6-5. We would be 7-4. They don't just look at the conference record.

Agree, they look at Out of Conference record:
Northern Iowa OOC:
Iowa State (Loss)
Weber State (Loss)
Idaho State (Win)

Illinois State OOC:
Dayton (Win)
Lindenwood (Win)
Eastern Illinois (Loss)

 

[Dmills]

Agree, they look at Out of Conference record:
Northern Iowa OOC:
Iowa State (Loss)
Weber State (Win)
Idaho State (Win)

Illinois State OOC:
Dayton (Win)
Lindenwood (Win)
Eastern Illinois (Loss)

Northern Iowa lost to Weber State.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Northern Iowa lost to Weber State.

You are correct.
So Northern Iowa didn’t reach seven Wins because they played Weber State instead of Dayton or Lindenwood. But they did beat #12 ranked Austin Peay.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

I’d say if North Dakota wins, they are in
If the Redbirds win, they are both out

yea i kind off feel like we are playing more of the spoiler role. we beat them and their record falls to 6-5.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

You are correct.
So Northern Iowa didn’t reach seven Wins because they played Weber State instead of Dayton or Lindenwood. But they did beat #12 ranked Austin Peay.

should be a crime for isu to play 2 ovc teams and a pioneer team in the same year. i am scratching my head at him already scheduling both ovc eiu and wiu in the future.