MVC Game 18

[isuquinndog]

We made it! Final regular season game. Everyone plays on 2/24.

Illinois State 61
Loyola 68

Missouri State 56
Northern Iowa 71

Southern Illinois 44
Evansville 75

Valparaiso 69
Drake 64

Indiana State 66
Bradley 64

Standings going into last game:

<i>
</i>2017-18 Men's Basketball Standings
SCHOOL		CONF	CPCT.	OVERALL	PCT.	STREAK
Loyola		14-3	0.824	24-5	0.828	W6
Southern IL 	11-6	0.647	19-11	0.633	L1
Illinois State	10-7	0.588	16-13	0.552	W2
Drake		10-7	0.588	16-14	0.533	L1
Bradley		9-8	0.529	19-11	0.633	W1
Missouri State	7-10	0.412	17-13	0.567	L3
Indiana State	7-10	0.412	12-17	0.414	W1
Evansville	6-11	0.353	16-14	0.533	L4
UNI		6-11	0.353	14-15	0.483	W1
Valparaiso	5-12	0.294	14-16	0.467	L1

 

[ekeyfanclub]

I think if Fayne and Evans had stayed healthy we would be ahead of SIU in 2nd. It seems that the team was finally starting to play well consistently and they both got hurt. Fayne is such a huge presence in the post on offense and defense and Evans is our best consistent 3 point threat.

 

[BirdsEyeView]

Best guess looking at these matchups

1. Loyola 15-3
2. SIU 11-7 (wins RPI tiebreaker)
3. Drake 11-7
4. ISU 10-8 (wins RPI tiebreaker)
5. Bradley 10-8
6. Missouri St 8-10
7. Indiana St. 7-11 (wins head to head tiebreaker)
8. Evansville 7-11
9. UNI 6-12
10. Valpo 5-13

 

[Adunk33]

Best guess looking at these matchups

1. Loyola 15-3
2. SIU 11-7 (wins RPI tiebreaker)
3. Drake 11-7
4. ISU 10-8 (wins RPI tiebreaker)
5. Bradley 10-8
6. Missouri St 8-10
7. Indiana St. 7-11 (wins head to head tiebreaker)
8. Evansville 7-11
9. UNI 6-12
10. Valpo 5-13

I agree with all but the Bradley-Inst game. Bradley is locked in at the 5 seed no matter what. I could see Indiana State playing desperate to get off thursday and Scott and Barnes go off against them. That would flip MO state and INST.
That would be ideal for me.... putting Indiana State and Drake on the other side of the bracket.

I also just noticed you have SIU losing to UE. Interesting.

 

[Baltimore Bird]

I can only remember playing the Gargoyles once in the 1st round of the MVC since it started and that was in an 8-9 game or 7-10 game about 15 years ago. We were the lower seed and beat them up pretty good. Interestingly, we have played them very little over the years in the MVC tournament. The 4/5 game will be a lot of fun and I will be there and will be fired up!

 

[Redbirdwarrior]

Porter is fully aware that he has to AT LEAST make Sunday at Arch Madness to sniff the tourney. That said, I don't know if he plans on coming out guns blazing against the birds or if he is okay with playing more of his bench to keep fresh legs on his bellcows.

I think 27-6 probably gets then a play in game. 26-7 gets them the #2 seed in the NIT. It looks really familiar, doesn't it?

The Birds sould be going as hard as they can. Playing a tired Thursday team on Friday is a big advantage over playing Missouri St. Of course, SIU has to somehow drop one on the road in EVille, which isn't impossible, for this to be in play.

What are our probable game scenarios here? The math suggests we will be playing Missouri St, which I HATE because they have arguably the best player in the conference, but what are the odds we end up playing EVille, Indy St or even Bradley? I'd feel much better against any of those.

 

[RedbirdNation24]

So unless I'm mistaken, if SIU loses and we and Drake both win, we would get the 2-seed, and then SIU would be 3 and Drake would be 4 correct?

 

[Manchester Matt]

Porter is fully aware that he has to AT LEAST make Sunday at Arch Madness to sniff the tourney. That said, I don't know if he plans on coming out guns blazing against the birds or if he is okay with playing more of his bench to keep fresh legs on his bellcows.

I think 27-6 probably gets then a play in game. 26-7 gets them the #2 seed in the NIT. It looks really familiar, doesn't it?

The Birds sould be going as hard as they can. Playing a tired Thursday team on Friday is a big advantage over playing Missouri St. Of course, SIU has to somehow drop one on the road in EVille, which isn't impossible, for this to be in play.

What are our probable game scenarios here? The math suggests we will be playing Missouri St, which I HATE because they have arguably the best player in the conference, but what are the odds we end up playing EVille, Indy St or even Bradley? I'd feel much better against any of those.

I don’t think the math suggests we play Missouri State at all. Based on Saturday's schedule, I’ll be stunned if we aren’t playing Bradley next Friday afternoon.

 

[ThisIsTheLineup]

What are our probable game scenarios here? The math suggests we will be playing Missouri St, which I HATE because they have arguably the best player in the conference, but what are the odds we end up playing EVille, Indy St or even Bradley? I'd feel much better against any of those.

Bradley is essentially locked in 5th. If we lose to Loyola and Drake beats Valpo (most likely scenario) - we finish 4th and play Bradley.

If we have the same outcome as Drake on Saturday - we finish 3rd and play either Missouri State or Indiana State.

If we win, Southern loses and we finish with a higher RPI (which we will in this case)- we finish 2nd and play the winner of the Valpo-MoSt/IndSt game.


If we finish 3rd, I would 100% much rather play Missouri State over Indiana State IMO. A Friday 8:30 matchup against Indiana State would be bad...still gives me nightmares from 2016.

EDIT: See bold

 

[BirdsEyeView]

Best guess looking at these matchups

1. Loyola 15-3
2. SIU 11-7 (wins RPI tiebreaker)
3. Drake 11-7
4. ISU 10-8 (wins RPI tiebreaker)
5. Bradley 10-8
6. Missouri St 8-10
7. Indiana St. 7-11 (wins head to head tiebreaker)
8. Evansville 7-11
9. UNI 6-12
10. Valpo 5-13

I agree with all but the Bradley-Inst game. Bradley is locked in at the 5 seed no matter what. I could see Indiana State playing desperate to get off thursday and Scott and Barnes go off against them. That would flip MO state and INST.
That would be ideal for me.... putting Indiana State and Drake on the other side of the bracket.

I also just noticed you have SIU losing to UE. Interesting.

Hard to not care on Senior Day in general. Whether that is Bradley for Donte Thomas, Loyola for Ben Richardson, Aundre Jackson and Ingram or Evansville for Simmons kid and Boo Gibson. Regardless of status for Arch Madness seeding movement, Senior Night emotions usually trump other factors, in my opinion.

Therefore,
Bradley > Indy St (62% chance per Hacksaw for Bradley)
Loyola > ISUr (hope I am wrong, but 80% chance for Loyola to win per Hacksaw)
Evansville > SIU (Hacksaw projected a 51% chance of UE winning)

Either way --this is just a rough guess

 

[BirdsEyeView]

What are our probable game scenarios here? The math suggests we will be playing Missouri St, which I HATE because they have arguably the best player in the conference, but what are the odds we end up playing EVille, Indy St or even Bradley? I'd feel much better against any of those.

If we win and Drake loses - we finish 2nd and play the winner of the Valpo-MoSt/IndSt game.

You are forgetting about Southern who is already a game ahead. We win, Drake loses, but SIU wins they are the 2nd seed.

 

[ThisIsTheLineup]

What are our probable game scenarios here? The math suggests we will be playing Missouri St, which I HATE because they have arguably the best player in the conference, but what are the odds we end up playing EVille, Indy St or even Bradley? I'd feel much better against any of those.

If we win and Drake loses - we finish 2nd and play the winner of the Valpo-MoSt/IndSt game.

You are forgetting about Southern who is already a game ahead. We win, Drake loses, but SIU wins they are the 2nd seed.

Oh duh...you are right...this is why I shouldn't be doing this at work haha.

Going to make changes...

 

[RedbirdAlum13]

Based on the scenarios Hacksaw posted and doing some quick math we have:

ISU's Seed        % Chance
        2              10%
        3              24%
        4              66%

BU's Seed         % Chance
        5             100%

MSU's Seed        % Chance
        6              79%
        7              21%

ISU Blue's Seed   % Chance
        6              21%
        7              79%

Valpo's Seed      % Chance
        10            100%

Multiplying these out we get the following probabilities of our first round opponent based on Sagarin's Ratings:

Bradley 66%
MSU 20%
ISU Blue 9%
Valpo 5%

 

[Topoly28]

Loyola has 0 shot at an at large IMO, so I wonder if they will limit minutes in this game or not. If we beat them then that guarantees they won't have to so us or southern before the title game which is ideal to them I'm sure. We still can beat them even if they go full strength now that our roster is healthy.

 

[isuquinndog]

There's six days between our game with Loyola and when they play again. I don't think they need to limit minutes.

 

[isuquinndog]

Every outcome with where the seeds will fall assuming we are higher than SIU in RPI.

https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/966512187152969729

 

[Manchester Matt]

Loyola has 0 shot at an at large IMO, so I wonder if they will limit minutes in this game or not. If we beat them then that guarantees they won't have to so us or southern before the title game which is ideal to them I'm sure. We still can beat them even if they go full strength now that our roster is healthy.

Loyola beat SIU by 14 at home and 19 in Carbondale. I don’t think the ramblers care when they play SIU as it’s clearly a good matchup for them.

 

[chuckie1980]

One of the good things about REDBIRDS playing at GENTILE of Loyola...RED really stands out from the stands. I expect a great BIRD turnout.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

So unless I'm mistaken, if SIU loses and we and Drake both win, we would get the 2-seed, and then SIU would be 3 and Drake would be 4 correct?

If Southern Illinois loses and Illinois State wins, I don’t think it really matters what Drake does, Illinois State would get the #2 seed. All three teams split their games, and Illinois State would have the best RBI.

 

[drewherridge1]

So unless I'm mistaken, if SIU loses and we and Drake both win, we would get the 2-seed, and then SIU would be 3 and Drake would be 4 correct?

If Southern Illinois loses and Illinois State wins, I don’t think it really matters what Drake does, Illinois State would get the #2 seed. All three teams split their games, and Illinois State would have the best RBI.

Updated RPI as of today.