MVC Game 17

[Redbird Alum 2004]

I have a feeling we will be playing Missouri State in the 4-5. That would be the last team I would want to play.

I think we match up against them well. Also that team has been through such a disappointing season I am not sure how much fight they might have.

 

[JHBird]

I'd rather be in the 6th seed vs the fourth. That way we can avoid Loyola until the finals (if we play well). Coach said last night that Phil was on track to be playing Weds, Bruniga too. So hopefully we will be at full strength the rest of the way. We can't get killed on the boards like we did against UNI and expect to win much.

 

[ThisIsTheLineup]

For those who like numbers - the 3-seed has never won a Friday game since Dan became head coach.

Friday games record by seeding (Since 2000)
1 seed - 18-0
2 seed - 18-0
3 seed - 11-7
4 seed - 13-5
5 seed - 5-13
6 seed - 7-11

 

[dpdoughbird06]

I'd rather be in the 6th seed vs the fourth. That way we can avoid Loyola until the finals (if we play well). Coach said last night that Phil was on track to be playing Weds, Bruniga too. So hopefully we will be at full strength the rest of the way. We can't get killed on the boards like we did against UNI and expect to win much.

2015 comes to mind here. We beat top dog Wichita on Saturday, only to fall to second banana UNI in final. I could see something like this happening again. This Redbird team at full strength can beat anyone, but still has ability to lay an egg. Playing Loyola on Sunday is ideal from an emotional standpoint - especially if prevailing arguments have Ramblers earning at-large with solid Sunday showing (I realize this is not likely, but some will believe it).

And maybe someone knocks them off Friday or Saturday. They are not Wichita - as evidenced by the all-session sales disparity between the two, if nothing else...

 

[goredbirds]

I'd rather be in the 6th seed vs the fourth. That way we can avoid Loyola until the finals (if we play well). Coach said last night that Phil was on track to be playing Weds, Bruniga too. So hopefully we will be at full strength the rest of the way. We can't get killed on the boards like we did against UNI and expect to win much.

2015 comes to mind here. We beat top dog Wichita on Saturday, only to fall to second banana UNI in final. I could see something like this happening again. This Redbird team at full strength can beat anyone, but still has ability to lay an egg. Playing Loyola on Sunday is ideal from an emotional standpoint - especially if prevailing arguments have Ramblers earning at-large with solid Sunday showing (I realize this is not likely, but some will believe it).

And maybe someone knocks them off Friday or Saturday. They are not Wichita - as evidenced by the all-session sales disparity between the two, if nothing else...

Sadly, we didn't get an at large birth last year, and Loyola's not going to get one this year. Loyola will get an NIT bid if they don't win the conference tournament, for what its worth. MVC is a one bid league this year (and likely, most years to come). The good news is that the tournament this year may be more winable for ISU than it has been since the Stallings era. Physically we are not out matched by any of the other teams. We could win anywhere from 0 to 3 games, as could several other teams. Finishing second in this tournament (i.e., losing in the finals) will not be any more satisfying than losing the first game as far as I'm concerned. The only thing I can't fathom s a champ coming from the 6-10 seeds.

 

[dpdoughbird06]

I'd rather be in the 6th seed vs the fourth. That way we can avoid Loyola until the finals (if we play well). Coach said last night that Phil was on track to be playing Weds, Bruniga too. So hopefully we will be at full strength the rest of the way. We can't get killed on the boards like we did against UNI and expect to win much.

2015 comes to mind here. We beat top dog Wichita on Saturday, only to fall to second banana UNI in final. I could see something like this happening again. This Redbird team at full strength can beat anyone, but still has ability to lay an egg. Playing Loyola on Sunday is ideal from an emotional standpoint - especially if prevailing arguments have Ramblers earning at-large with solid Sunday showing (I realize this is not likely, but some will believe it).

And maybe someone knocks them off Friday or Saturday. They are not Wichita - as evidenced by the all-session sales disparity between the two, if nothing else...

Sadly, we didn't get an at large birth last year, and Loyola's not going to get one this year. Loyola will get an NIT bid if they don't win the conference tournament, for what its worth. MVC is a one bid league this year (and likely, most years to come). The good news is that the tournament this year may be more winable for ISU than it has been since the Stallings era. Physically we are not out matched by any of the other teams. We could win anywhere from 0 to 3 games, as could several other teams. Finishing second in this tournament (i.e., losing in the finals) will not be any more satisfying than losing the first game as far as I'm concerned. The only thing I can't fathom s a champ coming from the 6-10 seeds.

*7-10 seeds

If UNI is the 7 or 10 don't you think they could beat SIU and go from there? I know non-con was a long time ago, but they were Valley's best heading into conference slate. And they have Carlson and a few others who have legit postseason experience.

Fatigue probably rules them out - and they've played some outright stinkers the last two months - but who can say for sure?

Valpo has gotten somewhat hot of late and INSU is like Bradley in the Lemon-Pickett years: incredibly top-heavy but still dangerous. Evansville has X-factor Taylor. If MSU ends up playing Thursday, does anyone want to bet against them going on a run?

As many have already said: this could be the year a 1-2 seed goes down on Friday; let's see where it goes from there.

 

[Adunk33]

Everyone is so afraid of Loyola. Sure they beat us at home by 7 thanks to six made free throws in the final minute, but some fans are talking about them like they are the new Wichita State.

In STL, the only team I for sure wouldn't want to see is Indiana State, they seem to go off on us. Maybe Drake too, depending how tomorrow night goes.

Loyola is good, and the most cohesive team in the conference. But they are far from world beaters. If we lose to them Saturday, fine by me, honestly. It's really hard to beat a team three times in one season, especially when the winning team is coached by Porter Moser. I can't tell you how many games I've watched him lose in STL.

Perhaps I'm drinking the kool-aide but if we get all the guys healthy, I always think we'll play Sunday in STL, or at least Saturday. Look at the last 10 years. We've played 5 Sundays and gone out on 2 Saturdays. 70% of the time in the last 10 years, we advance. So many of you love numbers, that's a decent percentage.

 

[Adunk33]

*7-10 seeds

If UNI is the 7 or 10 don't you think they could beat SIU and go from there? I know non-con was a long time ago, but they were Valley's best heading into conference slate. And they have Carlson and a few others who have legit postseason experience.

Fatigue probably rules them out - and they've played some outright stinkers the last two months - but who can say for sure?

Valpo has gotten somewhat hot of late and INSU is like Bradley in the Lemon-Pickett years: incredibly top-heavy but still dangerous. Evansville has X-factor Taylor. If MSU ends up playing Thursday, does anyone want to bet against them going on a run?

As many have already said: this could be the year a 1-2 seed goes down on Friday; let's see where it goes from there.

Great post. :text-+1:

Indiana State's conventional oven-type shooters (it may take some time, but when they are hot, they are HOT) will give them a chance against any team, 1 seed, 2 seed, whatever. I don't see Evansville being able to hang in the tournament just due to being 1 dimensional with Taylor and who knows if Smith will be able to play or not. I really do not think Bradley is very good. Their super bowl game against us was the high point of their season. I do not see them winning a game in STL. Mo State is tricky because of their Jekyll and Hyde like season. They battle Drake to the wire, despite some really strange circumstances. Drake will be interesting. Senior heavy team, bunch of shooters, and no quit, as we saw against Mo State, and playing together for the last time. I'm not sure if Niko would accept post-season play outside of the NCAA Tournament due to the lack of benefit for next season. I believe Muller did this in one of his first seasons so he could go recruit. I already discussed Loyola in my first post. Valpo and UNI are a bit of a mystery. Valpo has played well at home their last two days; whooping us and Bradley. They end their season @ Drake after playing vs UNI tonight. UNI isn't the UNI from years past but I believe Carlson, Koch, and Lohaus are the last two guys who saw PT during their last NCAA Tournament run in 2015, we all remember how that one ended! Southern Illinois will turn back into a pumpkin during this tournament. They have been playing their guys so many minutes this year, that fatigue will play a role. If they can somehow make it to Sunday, I give them about a 5% chance to win it.

This has been a very long two weeks! 9 more days!

 

[bb fan]

Still think the 4 or 5 seed is better than the 3 seed. The time of that first game is a big deal. ThisIsTheLineup posts some supporting data.

 

[RedbirdMan]

I'd rather be in the 6th seed vs the fourth. That way we can avoid Loyola until the finals (if we play well). Coach said last night that Phil was on track to be playing Weds, Bruniga too. So hopefully we will be at full strength the rest of the way. We can't get killed on the boards like we did against UNI and expect to win much.

2015 comes to mind here. We beat top dog Wichita on Saturday, only to fall to second banana UNI in final. I could see something like this happening again. This Redbird team at full strength can beat anyone, but still has ability to lay an egg. Playing Loyola on Sunday is ideal from an emotional standpoint - especially if prevailing arguments have Ramblers earning at-large with solid Sunday showing (I realize this is not likely, but some will believe it).

And maybe someone knocks them off Friday or Saturday. They are not Wichita - as evidenced by the all-session sales disparity between the two, if nothing else...

Sadly, we didn't get an at large birth last year, and Loyola's not going to get one this year. Loyola will get an NIT bid if they don't win the conference tournament, for what its worth. MVC is a one bid league this year (and likely, most years to come). The good news is that the tournament this year may be more winable for ISU than it has been since the Stallings era. Physically we are not out matched by any of the other teams. We could win anywhere from 0 to 3 games, as could several other teams. Finishing second in this tournament (i.e., losing in the finals) will not be any more satisfying than losing the first game as far as I'm concerned. The only thing I can't fathom s a champ coming from the 6-10 seeds.

Loyola will get an NIT bid regardless of conference tourney performance bc all regular season champs that don't make the NCAA get an auto bid to the NIT.

 

[tpskult]

Two to go! Most seeds are coming down to the wire. All games on ESPN3, MVC TV is regional sports networks that I don't want to type out.

Northern Iowa
Valparaiso (8 pm 2/20) (CBS Sports)

Drake
Illinois State (7 pm 2/21) (MVC TV)

Evansville
Indiana State (6 pm 2/21)

Bradley
Missouri State (7 pm 2/21) (Fox Sports Midwest)

Does anyone know if the Birds game is on TV tomorrow? Quinn has it listed as MVC TV but i do not see it listed on my channel guide. Am only showing the Bradly/ MO State game.

 

[Adunk33]

Per http://mvc-sports.com/calendar.aspx?path=mbball

Drake @ ISU is the "MVC TV wildcard," whatever that means, and Bradley at Mo State is on Fox Midwest/KC. I would guess we are on ESPN3 at the absolute least. I do not actually know, but we are on ESPN2 on Saturday.

 

[isuquinndog]

It's listed as MVC TV wildcard so I thought maybe that meant it was. I could be wrong.

 

[Adunk33]

It's listed as MVC TV wildcard so I thought maybe that meant it was. I could be wrong.

Just heard on the coaches conference it'll be on ESPN3.

 

[oldguy-67]

Do you realize that the next game pits 1 vs 2, 3 vs 4, 5 vs 6, 7 vs 8, and 9 vs 10? Just an observation.

 

[goredbirds]

2015 comes to mind here. We beat top dog Wichita on Saturday, only to fall to second banana UNI in final. I could see something like this happening again. This Redbird team at full strength can beat anyone, but still has ability to lay an egg. Playing Loyola on Sunday is ideal from an emotional standpoint - especially if prevailing arguments have Ramblers earning at-large with solid Sunday showing (I realize this is not likely, but some will believe it).

And maybe someone knocks them off Friday or Saturday. They are not Wichita - as evidenced by the all-session sales disparity between the two, if nothing else...

Sadly, we didn't get an at large birth last year, and Loyola's not going to get one this year. Loyola will get an NIT bid if they don't win the conference tournament, for what its worth. MVC is a one bid league this year (and likely, most years to come). The good news is that the tournament this year may be more winable for ISU than it has been since the Stallings era. Physically we are not out matched by any of the other teams. We could win anywhere from 0 to 3 games, as could several other teams. Finishing second in this tournament (i.e., losing in the finals) will not be any more satisfying than losing the first game as far as I'm concerned. The only thing I can't fathom s a champ coming from the 6-10 seeds.

*7-10 seeds

If UNI is the 7 or 10 don't you think they could beat SIU and go from there? I know non-con was a long time ago, but they were Valley's best heading into conference slate. And they have Carlson and a few others who have legit postseason experience.

Fatigue probably rules them out - and they've played some outright stinkers the last two months - but who can say for sure?
----


I was basing my "unfathomable" comment on the fatigue factor. Winning on Thursday night, Friday, & Saturday (and surely 2 of the 3 would need to be grind out, exhausting victories) , and then facing a team on Sunday that has only had to play on Friday and Saturday, just seems like too big of hill to climb. As the great Vince Lombardi said, "Fatigue makes cowards of us all".

But, I could be wrong! :lol:

 

[isuquinndog]

It's listed as MVC TV wildcard so I thought maybe that meant it was. I could be wrong.

Just heard on the coaches conference it'll be on ESPN3.

Thanks. I fixed it.

 

[Bird Friend]

Do you realize that the next game pits 1 vs 2, 3 vs 4, 5 vs 6, 7 vs 8, and 9 vs 10? Just an observation.

. . . read page one of the thread . . . comment by cpacmel . . .

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Everyone is so afraid of Loyola. Sure they beat us at home by 7 thanks to six made free throws in the final minute, but some fans are talking about them like they are the new Wichita State.

In STL, the only team I for sure wouldn't want to see is Indiana State, they seem to go off on us. Maybe Drake too, depending how tomorrow night goes.

Loyola is good, and the most cohesive team in the conference. But they are far from world beaters. If we lose to them Saturday, fine by me, honestly. It's really hard to beat a team three times in one season, especially when the winning team is coached by Porter Moser. I can't tell you how many games I've watched him lose in STL.

Perhaps I'm drinking the kool-aide but if we get all the guys healthy, I always think we'll play Sunday in STL, or at least Saturday. Look at the last 10 years. We've played 5 Sundays and gone out on 2 Saturdays. 70% of the time in the last 10 years, we advance. So many of you love numbers, that's a decent percentage.

Loyola is a solid well balanced team. They have an inside and outside game as well as good ball movement and spacing for offense. They have some decent man to man defenders and with that can obviously play good zone defense too. Loyola transitions well and with good quickness/athleticism. Afraid of Loyola is too strong but not wanting to play them until all other MVC teams have already tried, and hopefully succeeded, to defeat them would be ideal. When Loyola has played their best this year they have played at level slightly higher than any other MVC team has been able to obtain. That said I believe ISU is a formidable/serious challenge for Loyola IF ISU is at full roster strength (that does not contemplate Romine). My ranking of most likely to win MVC tourney:
1. Loyola
2 . ISU full strength going into MVC ..otherwise SIU at 2
3. SIU or ISU
4. Drake
5. Mo State
6. Indy State

After Loyola it is real close especially if ISU is hobbled. Big concern I have about iSU is that this ISU team is too often a poor shooting team.. especially the role players. ISU shoots poorly one game and it is over. Shoot average or better and I believe they will win.

I don't believe the remaining MVC teams stand much of a chance of winning multiple tourney games.

 

[Dave99]

For those who like numbers - the 3-seed has never won a Friday game since Dan became head coach.

Friday games record by seeding (Since 2000)
1 seed - 18-0
2 seed - 18-0
3 seed - 11-7
4 seed - 13-5
5 seed - 5-13
6 seed - 7-11

I know the 1 seed is undefeated vs the 8/9, but I could swear a couple of 2 seeds have lost their first game in St Louis