MVC Game 11

[isuquinndog]

Tie at the top! Four way tie in the middle!

Games
Valparaiso (5-5) 69 @ Illinois St (7-3) 53 - 7 pm, 2/5/19, ESPN+
Drake (6-4) 64 @ Loyola (7-3) 86 - 6 pm, 2/5/19, CBS Sports

Evansville (4-6) 62 @ Indiana St (3-7) 85 - 6 pm, 2/6/19, ESPN+
Bradley (3-7) 79 @ UNI (5-5) 71 - 7 pm, 2/6/19, ESPN+
Southern IL (5-6) 59 @ Missouri St (5-6) 65 - 7 pm, 2/6/19, Fox Sports Midwest

Standings after 10 games

 

[Redbird60451]

So do we want Drake to beat Loyola? Or do we want the separation from Drake? Making the assumption we get revenge against Valpo and lose a game somewhere else later this season, like maybe SIU at the end, or Mo State.

 

[PurpleRedbird]

I've never been a fan of playing for 2nd. Go Drake.

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[CB2K]

Almost half of the season is left so the more games Loyola can lose the better. This is one of those unfinished business games that the Redbirds should easily be motivated to play hard in spite of the quick turnaround on the schedule.

 

[Baltimore Bird]

Quinn.....Can you flip ISU and Loyola in the standings above? Positive thinking!

 

[cpacmel]

I've never been a fan of playing for 2nd. Go Drake.

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This! :text-+1:

 

[ricohill]

I know we destroyed Drake at Drake, but they are a team that still scares me in this league. They are a team that can score a lot of points, which is rare in the MVC this year. With a win on Tuesday they put themselves in a spot for a top 2 seed.

 

[isuquinndog]

Quinn.....Can you flip ISU and Loyola in the standings above? Positive thinking!

Ha, I'd rather show the "as of today" fact. We lose the second tie breaker due to NET ranking. That's why I add it to my chart.

 

[Adunk33]

So do we want Drake to beat Loyola? Or do we want the separation from Drake? Making the assumption we get revenge against Valpo and lose a game somewhere else later this season, like maybe SIU at the end, or Mo State.

Along with a few other posters, I'll take as many Loyola losses as I can get. Their remaining schedule is: vs Drake, at Valpo, at Bradley, vs Mo State. vs UE, at SIU, at UNI, and home against Bradley.

We can go ahead a pencil them in for a two wins against BU, one against UE and Mo State. That puts them at 11 MVC wins. Valpo is still dealing with injuries and has been a shell of who they were at the start of the conference season. I think if we can get to 13 wins, we will be at the very least tied for 1st at the end of the season.

We have MoState twice, and they have some pretty good wins so far this season. We also have Valpo, at UNI (they looked decent against Loyola the other day), Badley (we should be looking for redemption), at Indiana State (always tough to play at the Hulman Center), Drake, and then end the season at SIU (who knows what to expect here. .

Since we've held serve at home, Ill give us the games at home vs Valpo, Mo State, Drake, and Badley, taking us to 11 wins. We need to steal two more on the road to have a shot at the league crown. Most likely would be at ISUb and UNI. Even though I think both will be tough.

 

[Birdman85]

Lunardi had Loyola as a 15 seed in the tourney today. Ouch not good for the tourney winner.

 

[Tpguy]

I would love to see UNI in a double header win vs BU

 

[Flagship08]

Some quick math had the 14 seed averaged an RPI of 110 and 15 seed averaged an RPI of 128 last year. The net rankings make us look worse than RPI currently which is 141 on Warren Nolan. A win at Arch Madness likely will set us up against a 2 seed unless we (or Loyola) finish strong. If anyone else wins St Louis a 15 seed is a lock.

 

[ricohill]

Some quick math had the 14 seed averaged an RPI of 110 and 15 seed averaged an RPI of 128 last year. The net rankings make us look worse than RPI currently which is 141 on Warren Nolan. A win at Arch Madness likely will set us up against a 2 seed unless we (or Loyola) finish strong. If anyone else wins St Louis a 15 seed is a lock.

I was looking at a bunch of mock brackets last night. Loyola is the 3rd or 4th team on the 15 line. I was hoping some people would put us in now that we are tied for first. I think right now ISU is probably a 16. That will change if we keep winning.

 

[Flagship08]

Some quick math had the 14 seed averaged an RPI of 110 and 15 seed averaged an RPI of 128 last year. The net rankings make us look worse than RPI currently which is 141 on Warren Nolan. A win at Arch Madness likely will set us up against a 2 seed unless we (or Loyola) finish strong. If anyone else wins St Louis a 15 seed is a lock.

I was looking at a bunch of mock brackets last night. Loyola is the 3rd or 4th team on the 15 line. I was hoping some people would put us in now that we are tied for first. I think right now ISU is probably a 16. That will change if we keep winning.

Keep in mind bracketology predictions assume the best team of the 1 bid leagues will win the conference tournaments which as we know there will be upsets. These upsets in the 1 bid leagues will fill the #16 seeds, and hopefully push the remaining teems into better seeds.

 

[ricohill]

Some quick math had the 14 seed averaged an RPI of 110 and 15 seed averaged an RPI of 128 last year. The net rankings make us look worse than RPI currently which is 141 on Warren Nolan. A win at Arch Madness likely will set us up against a 2 seed unless we (or Loyola) finish strong. If anyone else wins St Louis a 15 seed is a lock.

I was looking at a bunch of mock brackets last night. Loyola is the 3rd or 4th team on the 15 line. I was hoping some people would put us in now that we are tied for first. I think right now ISU is probably a 16. That will change if we keep winning.

Keep in mind bracketology predictions assume the best team of the 1 bid leagues will win the conference tournaments which as we know there will be upsets. These upsets in the 1 bid leagues will fill the #16 seeds, and hopefully push the remaining teems into better seeds.

Great point. If and with our history it is a big If we win Arch Madness, I hope we could find a way to get to a 14.

 

[isuquinndog]

Write it down has my hot take.

There is ZERO chance that if ISU or Loyola win the MVC tourney, they will be lower than a 14 seed. Z.E.R.O. Zero.

 

[ricohill]

Write it down has my hot take.

There is ZERO chance that if ISU or Loyola win the MVC tourney, they will be lower than a 14 seed. Z.E.R.O. Zero.

As I watch NET ratings move, I'm starting to agree. However, I think both teams can't afford to lose many more games.

 

[Flagship08]

Random question, when was the last sub 100 RPI/NET team to win Arch Madness?

Edit- The closest I could find was Indiana State in 2010 who were in the 80's. Going back to 2003 it looks like pretty much every team has been top 50 (let alone top 100).

 

[bb fan]

I gotta ask. When will recent results mean something? The NCAA can make up any numbers they want. The MVC delivered a final four entrant just a year ago. They should take stuff like this in account. They sure would for a P5.

 

[ricohill]

Random question, when was the last sub 100 RPI/NET team to win Arch Madness?

Edit- The closest I could find was Indiana State in 2010 who were in the 80's. Going back to 2003 it looks like pretty much every team has been top 50 (let alone top 100).

I went through every year of the RPI on NCAA before 2003 and earlier (since you already looked). Highest RPI team to win Arch Madness was Southwest Missouri State in 1992 with an RPI of 98.