MVC Game 10

[bb fan]

Agree, Rico. I want LUC to keep winning as well. Did not realize they were at the Ice Rink before us. Thanks.

 

[ricohill]

Loyola could help us out a bunch this week if we take care of business. I just saw they have Mo State at home on Saturday. If we can beat Mo State, I don't like their chances at Loyola.

I'd like to have the tie breaker with Mo State by beating them twice because I don't think they are going to separate themselves from the middle and move up.

Granted with the MVC this year, we will lose to Mo State, Bradley and Mo State will beat Loyola and everything will be even crazier than it was going into the week.

 

[bb fan]

Good stuff, Rico.

 

[Redbirds4Life]

Looking at our schedule the rest of the way, I think that we will avoid the play-in game at 10-8 in the league, which means we have to finish the season 5-3 the rest of the way. Feels realistic right?

Should be wins - If we take care of business
Vs Evansville
@ Valparasio
Vs Northern Iowa

Very Winable, but in doubt
@ Missouri State
Vs Southern Illinois
@ Bradley
Vs Drake

Probably Not
@ Loyola

If they can just take care of business in the 3 they should, then they just need to go 2-3 in the other 5, Let's do it!

 

[ISU FAN 1]

Illinois St. Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 28, 2018

After beating Valparaiso 76-65 yesterday, Illinois St. is now projected to finish the regular season 14-16 (8-10 MVC).
The odds that the Redbirds make the NCAA tournament are currently 5%.
We currently rank Illinois St. as the #166 team in the country, and the #8 team in the MVC.
Next game: Tue, Jan 30 at #109 Missouri St. Our power ratings give the Redbirds a 23% chance to win.

Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 5%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 5%
Projected Seed (if Selected) 14
Projected Final Record
14-16 (8-10 MVC)
MVC Tournament Projections
Get MVC #1 Seed 0%
Projected Seed 8
Win MVC Tournament 5%

Remaining Games & Win Odds

Jan 30
@ #109 Missouri St
22.6%

Feb 3
vs. #171 Evansville
66.1%

Feb 8
vs. #146 S Illinois
60.9%

Feb 11
@ #159 Valparaiso
33.8%

Feb 14
@ #135 Bradley
27.5%

Feb 17
vs. #121 N Iowa
52.6%

Feb 21
vs. #180 Drake
68.3%

Feb 24
@ #79 Loyola-Chi
14.7%

 

[Adunk33]

8-10 would be awful. I'm sure this system uses some sort of complex formulas and numbers that i could not begin to understand but i see us at 9-9 at the absolute worst! Maybe foolish optimism on my part.

 

[Redbirds4Life]

My expectations, which have fallen quite a bit throughout the year, is that Illinois State will finish 10-8 in the league. I think that winning 5 of 8 is very realistic. Other than Loyola, they can win any of the 7 other games.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Illinois St. Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 28, 2018

After beating Valparaiso 76-65 yesterday, Illinois St. is now projected to finish the regular season 14-16 (8-10 MVC).
The odds that the Redbirds make the NCAA tournament are currently 5%.
We currently rank Illinois St. as the #166 team in the country, and the #8 team in the MVC.
Next game: Tue, Jan 30 at #109 Missouri St. Our power ratings give the Redbirds a 23% chance to win.

Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 5%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 5%
Projected Seed (if Selected) 14
Projected Final Record
14-16 (8-10 MVC)
MVC Tournament Projections
Get MVC #1 Seed 0%
Projected Seed 8
Win MVC Tournament 5%

Remaining Games & Win Odds

Jan 30
@ #109 Missouri St
22.6%

Feb 3
vs. #171 Evansville
66.1%

Feb 8
vs. #146 S Illinois
60.9%

Feb 11
@ #159 Valparaiso
33.8%

Feb 14
@ #135 Bradley
27.5%

Feb 17
vs. #121 N Iowa
52.6%

Feb 21
vs. #180 Drake
68.3%

Feb 24
@ #79 Loyola-Chi
14.7%

Just out of curiosity, what is that site's predicted finish for UNI?

 

[redblood]

I don't understand that site's projected final record of 8-10 in the Valley. There win probability #'s show ISU as the favorite to win 4 of the remaining 8 league games. Which would be 9-9? Plus how are the Birds ranked as the #166 team in the country while Valpo is #159? Don't think I give that site much credence...

 

[dpdoughbird06]

I don't understand that site's projected final record of 8-10 in the Valley. There win probability #'s show ISU as the favorite to win 4 of the remaining 8 league games. Which would be 9-9? Plus how are the Birds ranked as the #166 team in the country while Valpo is #159? Don't think I give that site much credence...

Also for some reason every Valley team's overall ranking is 25-50 spots (or more) lower than their RPI. It's a bit closer to some of the KenPoms, but whoever compiled these numbers obviously doesn't agree that the Valley had the 8th best non-con showing...

 

[ricohill]

I was looking at Warren Nolan RPI. They have predicted final standings.

They have ISU finishing 9-9 and tied for 4th with SIU and Mo State (keeping us out of Thursday).

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/conf-prediction?conference=Missouri-Valley

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

I don't understand that site's projected final record of 8-10 in the Valley. There win probability #'s show ISU as the favorite to win 4 of the remaining 8 league games. Which would be 9-9? Plus how are the Birds ranked as the #166 team in the country while Valpo is #159? Don't think I give that site much credence...

Agree some inconsistency but ISU may be getting drug down the rankings by a couple of nasty OOC loses like CSU.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

I was looking at Warren Nolan RPI. They have predicted final standings.

They have ISU finishing 9-9 and tied for 4th with SIU and Mo State (keeping us out of Thursday).

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/conf-prediction?conference=Missouri-Valley

I could see Loyola ending up with only 3 losses in the MVC. They are really solid and their young players, namely Krutwig and Williamson, are only going to get better as season progresses. Their quickness on defense really made UNI look so anemic.

Spent some time chatting with Mike Mullins (illinois wolves) at the Loyola/Uni game and he seems bullish on ISU, especially for next year. He obviously has skin in the game but I do respect his opinion.

 

[Trey_Guidry4three]

If Loyola gets to 15 or 16 wins in regular season play and loses in mvc tournament do they get the short end of the stick like isu did last year? Big win is at Florida. Bad loss is at uw Milwaukee.

 

[Manchester Matt]

If Loyola gets to 15 or 16 wins in regular season play and loses in mvc tournament do they get the short end of the stick like isu did last year? Big win is at Florida. Bad loss is at uw Milwaukee.

One loss with Custer. Hope the committee looks at that seriously.

 

[JHBird]

If Loyola gets to 15 or 16 wins in regular season play and loses in mvc tournament do they get the short end of the stick like isu did last year? Big win is at Florida. Bad loss is at uw Milwaukee.

I feel our team was better last year then the Loyola team is this year, so I'm thinking they wouldn't make it.

 

[cpacmel]

If Loyola gets to 15 or 16 wins in regular season play and loses in mvc tournament do they get the short end of the stick like isu did last year? Big win is at Florida. Bad loss is at uw Milwaukee.

No chance they dance. Their non conf schedule is horrid. 150 spots worse than ours was last year.

 

[RedbirdNation24]

If Loyola gets to 15 or 16 wins in regular season play and loses in mvc tournament do they get the short end of the stick like isu did last year? Big win is at Florida. Bad loss is at uw Milwaukee.

One loss with Custer. Hope the committee looks at that seriously.

On top of what others have said about their bad schedule, mid majors don't get the benefit of the doubt with injuries. Those are privileges reserved only for P5 programs.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

Illinois St. Basketball
Predictions Update
Jan 28, 2018

After beating Valparaiso 76-65 yesterday, Illinois St. is now projected to finish the regular season 14-16 (8-10 MVC).
The odds that the Redbirds make the NCAA tournament are currently 5%.
We currently rank Illinois St. as the #166 team in the country, and the #8 team in the MVC.
Next game: Tue, Jan 30 at #109 Missouri St. Our power ratings give the Redbirds a 23% chance to win.

Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 5%
Get Automatic NCAA Bid 5%
Projected Seed (if Selected) 14
Projected Final Record
14-16 (8-10 MVC)
MVC Tournament Projections
Get MVC #1 Seed 0%
Projected Seed 8
Win MVC Tournament 5%

Remaining Games & Win Odds

Jan 30
@ #109 Missouri St
22.6%

Feb 3
vs. #171 Evansville
66.1%

Feb 8
vs. #146 S Illinois
60.9%

Feb 11
@ #159 Valparaiso
33.8%

Feb 14
@ #135 Bradley
27.5%

Feb 17
vs. #121 N Iowa
52.6%

Feb 21
vs. #180 Drake
68.3%

Feb 24
@ #79 Loyola-Chi
14.7%

Just out of curiosity, what is that site's predicted finish for UNI?

I subscribed to get email updates on ISU. Here is the Northern Iowa link: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/northern-iowa-panthers

Probably need to subscribe to that to get the massaged data in the same format. Looks like 8-10 and 8th place. ISU is fractionally better, and finishes higher without any rounding off.

 

[ISU FAN 1]

I don't understand that site's projected final record of 8-10 in the Valley. There win probability #'s show ISU as the favorite to win 4 of the remaining 8 league games. Which would be 9-9? Plus how are the Birds ranked as the #166 team in the country while Valpo is #159? Don't think I give that site much credence...

Obviously there's margin for error, and games where a team is 51% likely to win are toss ups. Maybe there's an injury factor that they think will be resolved by the time the game is actually played. Maybe just a needle pointing down trend considering some of the ass whipping we absorbed in recent road games. Just something to look at that is more data driven. Just something to compare to the more passion driven projections in this forum. Honestly, it has implied most of the way that ISU would be about .500, and that's bearing out to this point.