ISU vs Evansville, 1/5/19

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Question for anyone - we've played better D against Valpo and Evansville. I'm sure everyone would agree these
2 schools are NOT of the caliber of 3-4 non conference teams who slapped us around pretty good. R we really
better or is it simply the Valley competition.

Yes, clearly we R keeping our man in front of us and seem to be stopping the penetration with help defense much better but
I'm not sure if what I'm seeing is legit improvement. I do see where Chastain clogs the lane with help D which we were Not getting
before the past couple of games.

Muller says on the radio that Key is our best perimeter D guy and I still struggle with that thinking but maybe I'm being stubborn about
actual improvement. Nevertheless - they're trying hard and it's a better watch.

Thoughts?

Build off the positives and optimism but agree fans proceed with caution as suggested for many reasons. Using two data points (last one good and prior one bad) to suggest a positive trend can likely lead to a wrong conclusion....how is that for using my ISU stats class?

Also take Muller comments, esp now, with a grain of salt as he is trying whatever he can to kick start and get this team going.

 

[bb fan]

Since the break, the defense as been terrific. A healthy Chas brings a whole new spirit and drive to the D. And watch, I think you will see his offense start to blossom. Also, we are running a much better offense. We did not make shots yesterday, but it seems everyone is in the right place and we are running plays. The shots will fall. The number of bad shots is way down this month from previous.

Aside from the "New Year's Miracle" (an exact quote I heard from an about 8 year old Valpo fan leaving the game Wednesday evening), I think we are off on the right foot for the conference run.

 

[ricohill]

Question for anyone - we've played better D against Valpo and Evansville. I'm sure everyone would agree these
2 schools are NOT of the caliber of 3-4 non conference teams who slapped us around pretty good. R we really
better or is it simply the Valley competition.

Yes, clearly we R keeping our man in front of us and seem to be stopping the penetration with help defense much better but
I'm not sure if what I'm seeing is legit improvement. I do see where Chastain clogs the lane with help D which we were Not getting
before the past couple of games.

Muller says on the radio that Key is our best perimeter D guy and I still struggle with that thinking but maybe I'm being stubborn about
actual improvement. Nevertheless - they're trying hard and it's a better watch.

Thoughts?

I think we've played with more intensity, however I'm convinced the fact Valpo and Evansville being two of the worst offensive teams in the country helps.

Looking at KenPom, Valpo has an offensive rating of 216 and Evansville is 284. So there are only about 65 teams in the NCAA worse than Evansville on offense.

Valpo has the 243rd ranked 3pt field goal percentage in the country so you don't have to guard them outside of 5 feet. Evansville is 258th in FG percentage and 222nd in 3pt fg percentage.

Most of the Valley is terrible offensively with 7 of 10 teams 200 or worse so it's going to be a lot of ugly games like yesterday.

 

[SgtHulka]

Evansville entered the game 30th in the country at free throw attempts\game at 14. They shot 7 yesterday so our defense played without fouling better than our average so far this year.

They average more ppg than we do (4th), as does valpo (3rd), we are 9th in points allowed. Both average 73 ppg, they scored 46 and 58

Their fg% average is 42 and 46 respectively. They shot 37 and 32

I think it's fair to say our defense has improved, both statistically and by eye test.

 

[CB2K]

The focus and improved defense is a positive takeaway from a rather disappointing season. It doesn't mean that they will win every game because of it but it will make them more competitive especially if the offense is sputtering like it has been. Placing a premium focus on it now will pay dividends down the road especially during tournament time. Defense plays and keeps you playing especially in post-season.

Offensively, DM said he expects the offense to get better and was pleased about the shot selection for the most part last night. I loved the game by Milik -- nice shot selection in the lane and about 10-12 feet out is a high percentage shot for him. He can make those shots consistently. He actually played a very good controled game and got called for at least one offensive foul that was clearly a blocking foul -- the crowd let the ref have it as well as DM on that one.

I sure wish this would have been the focus from the beginning but I am sure they were working on the new-fangled offense imported from Marshall-land which I still think was probably not a good idea. On paper, this team has offensive skill -- Phil, Millik, Key, Copeland, and JJ should be able to put some ponts on the board. Not sure what has happened to JJ -- I would run a few plays just for him to get open. He has a great looking shot but has been forcing and rushing it lately which never is a good idea.

DM said on post-game that it was on him for not focusing on repetitive defensive drills from the beginning as they probably should have. He commented that this new focus is why the defense has improved especially Copeland's "night and day" improvement. I was impressed by the way two-three defenders would converge on the ballhandler when trying to drive in the lane which resulted in many stops last night that in prior games just didn't happen.

He also mentioned that because of the defensive focus in practice that they have also tried slowing down the offense and not run and gun as much as they have been. I think I like this approach because the other wasn't working. Maybe DM thought that he had such a potentially stong offensive team that he thought this would put them over and decided to roll the dice with a new offense thinking this would win a lot of games. Slowing down the offense to look for better shots and focusing on defenes is a good midseason adjustment. Got to give hime credit for that. He also explained that if you are playing strong and engaged defense but make some bad shots or ill-advised offensive decisions that you will still stay in the game because defense is king.

Yes, Valpo and Evansville aren't the strongest of opponents but they have to start somewhere to see where this new focus on defense will take them. May not be a cure-all for the season but it will sure be better than what they have been doing and hopefully the results will follow.

 

[ricohill]

Evansville entered the game 30th in the country at free feels attempts\game at 14. They shot 7 yesterday so our defense played without fouling better than our average so far this year.

They average more ppg than we do (4th), as does valpo (3rd), we are 9th in points allowed. Both average 73 ppg, they scored 46 and 58

Their fg% average is 42 and 46 respectively. They shot 37 and 32

I think it's fair to say our defense has improved, both statistically and by eye test.

Not arguing that it’s not improved. I’m just not convinced we are that great defensively yet. I think taking Tinsley out of the rotation helps us on that end.

However, looking at the Valley you don’t really have to be that great on defense outside of playing Loyola (would have been drake as well w Norton). Most of the teams in the league just can’t score.

UNI is around 311 on offense so Tuesday will be another game in the 50s.

 

[stats]

Evansville entered the game 30th in the country at free throw attempts\game at 14. They shot 7 yesterday so our defense played without fouling better than our average so far this year.

They average more ppg than we do (4th), as does valpo (3rd), we are 9th in points allowed. Both average 73 ppg, they scored 46 and 58

Their fg% average is 42 and 46 respectively. They shot 37 and 32

I think it's fair to say our defense has improved, both statistically and by eye test.

Good info.

 

[stats]

I think early on we looked bad on defense for a number of reasons. We were starting games with 7 or 8 players. One of the reasons we played soft was because we couldn't afford to foul. We had guys playing in different positions out of necessity. There was really no team defense, but just 5 guys trying not to foul.

I know many people don't believe there is a correlation, but I feel a more structured offense helps with your defense. Anything we can do to keep those guys from thinking too much is a good thing.

 

[Bird Friend]

Question for anyone - we've played better D against Valpo and Evansville. I'm sure everyone would agree these
2 schools are NOT of the caliber of 3-4 non conference teams who slapped us around pretty good. R we really
better or is it simply the Valley competition.

Yes, clearly we R keeping our man in front of us and seem to be stopping the penetration with help defense much better but
I'm not sure if what I'm seeing is legit improvement. I do see where Chastain clogs the lane with help D which we were Not getting
before the past couple of games.

Muller says on the radio that Key is our best perimeter D guy and I still struggle with that thinking but maybe I'm being stubborn about
actual improvement. Nevertheless - they're trying hard and it's a better watch.

Thoughts?

Build off the positives and optimism but agree fans proceed with caution as suggested for many reasons. Using two data points (last one good and prior one bad) to suggest a positive trend can likely lead to a wrong conclusion....how is that for using my ISU stats class?

Also take Muller comments, esp now, with a grain of salt as he is trying whatever he can to kick start and get this team going.

I’ll give you C+ on stats. The technical terminology is ‘small sample size’. Also, the ‘likelihood’ of the conclusion being right or wrong isn’t supported by the data at this point. So saying it will ‘likely lead to a wrong conclusion’ is not supportable based on your own admission of insufficient data.

 

[stats]

Only looking at the first 36 minutes of the games, I think we have had 2 good defensive games in a row. The first one we had a terrible collapse. The second one we have a strong finish.

I think of in the midst of our turnovers and debacle at the end, most of us have overlooked that the Valpo game was one of our best defensive games of the year up to that point.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Question for anyone - we've played better D against Valpo and Evansville. I'm sure everyone would agree these
2 schools are NOT of the caliber of 3-4 non conference teams who slapped us around pretty good. R we really
better or is it simply the Valley competition.

Yes, clearly we R keeping our man in front of us and seem to be stopping the penetration with help defense much better but
I'm not sure if what I'm seeing is legit improvement. I do see where Chastain clogs the lane with help D which we were Not getting
before the past couple of games.

Muller says on the radio that Key is our best perimeter D guy and I still struggle with that thinking but maybe I'm being stubborn about
actual improvement. Nevertheless - they're trying hard and it's a better watch.

Thoughts?

Build off the positives and optimism but agree fans proceed with caution as suggested for many reasons. Using two data points (last one good and prior one bad) to suggest a positive trend can likely lead to a wrong conclusion....how is that for using my ISU stats class?

Also take Muller comments, esp now, with a grain of salt as he is trying whatever he can to kick start and get this team going.

I’ll give you C+ on stats. The technical terminology is ‘small sample size’. Also, the ‘likelihood’ of the conclusion being right or wrong isn’t supported by the data at this point. So saying it will ‘likely lead to a wrong conclusion’ is not supportable based on your own admission of insufficient data.

I was talking about trend and certainly sample size impacts the trends credibility. But again I was talking about trend.

You are right...remove the likely.

 

[Tpguy]

Nice win today, but until we start winning road games, I can’t take this team seriously. Best part of my day was still the post game Tobin’s.

Drooling :lol:

 

[RicoBryson]

Evansville entered the game 30th in the country at free throw attempts\game at 14. They shot 7 yesterday so our defense played without fouling better than our average so far this year.

They average more ppg than we do (4th), as does valpo (3rd), we are 9th in points allowed. Both average 73 ppg, they scored 46 and 58

Their fg% average is 42 and 46 respectively. They shot 37 and 32

I think it's fair to say our defense has improved, both statistically and by eye test.

:text-+1: Great win! Proved me wrong and I love it!