FCS Playoffs

Birdswin

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Can you believe it??? SD State and ND State is opposite brackets probably for the first time ever. Could be another all MVFC Championship game. UND also makes the playoffs from the conference. Could have been the Birds - if we did not blow games versus SIU and Youngstown State.
 

fourthandshort

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Montana was 4-4 in the Big Sky

Their wins were:
EWU (2-6)
Cal Poly (1-7)
Idaho State (1-7)
Portland State (3-5)
Good info .. this notion that playing in the MVFC or Big Sky, and SOS doesn't matter and to our conference's detriment always bewilders me.

Bit of irony coming with this mention of Montana:

- in 2022, Montana finished 7-4 / 4-4 .. beating 3 weak FCS OOC teams .. all of their 7 FCS wins were below .500, with collective rrecord of 19 wins and 58 losses. Gets an at large bid and beats 9-2 SEMO on the road by 10. Key to this Montana at large selection .. they play in the Big Sky .. the best conference in FCS this year. They beat no one worth a damn until they got to playoffs and beat 9-2 SEMO. Key to SEMO at large selection, they play in a bad conference.

So lets look at 9-2 SEMO and what they did to earn a bid ... the only win SEMO had against a team with an over .500 record was Lindenwood who was 7-3, but just 4-3 against D-I teams. And their 4 FCS wins against teams had just a 11-35 record. Then they lose to a 7-4 Montana team with zero quality wins. So SEMO technically never beat a winning team this year.

Speaking of SEMO ...

- in 2019, our Redbirds finished 8-4 / 5-3 .. limping into playoffs as last team in. Get the at large bid and beat SEMO on road by 18, then beat 8 seed 9-3 UCA on road by 10. Then went on to give NDSU their toughest win of the playoffs on the road. Key to our at large selection .. we play in the MVFC .. the best conference in FCS the last 12 years running.

- in 2016, our Redbirds finished 6-5 .. got the last at large bid. Go to #12 UCA leading after dominating them for 3 qtrs, then 2 uncharacteristic bad special teams plays early in Q4 gives them 10 points and momentum - we lost by 7 in a game we should have won. That year we lost to 6-5 EIU, 4-7 ISUb, and 4-7 USD. We also beat a very tough Northwestern team and SDSU team.

This has been going on since 2010 when the MVFC started dominating FCS ... and not just NDSU. This matters !!!!!

So can we stop with this defeatist negative stuff, where we hold our own Redbirds to much higher standards the rest of FCS and to our detriment when it comes to playoff bids. Fact is ... strength of schedule matters when it comes to playoff selections ... and coaching records.
 
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ISUBU

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So can we stop with this defeatist negative stuff, where we hold our own Redbirds to much higher standards the rest of FCS and to our detriment when it comes to playoff bids. Fact is ... strength of schedule matters when it comes to playoff selections ... and coaching records.
Our 2023 schedule appears to be one of the weakest in recent years. VERY favorable for qualifying for the playoffs. Only two 2022 playoff participants on it. Murray State joins the MVFC with a poor team. Typical FBS game replaced by new FCS Lindenwood.

Not sure if this counters or supports your argument. Of course in these Portal days, teams can change drastically very quickly. I'm not saying I like the schedule, but we will be heavy favorites in a few games.
 

fourthandshort

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Our 2023 schedule appears to be one of the weakest in recent years. VERY favorable for qualifying for the playoffs. Only two 2022 playoff participants on it. Murray State joins the MVFC with a poor team. Typical FBS game replaced by new FCS Lindenwood.

Not sure if this counters or supports your argument. Of course in these Portal days, teams can change drastically very quickly. I'm not saying I like the schedule, but we will be heavy favorites in a few games.
I do wish we were more consistent about getting 1 FBS, 1 Patsy FCS and 1 decent FCS for OOC. But when I get on my MVFC soap box, I'm also giving much more weight to 8 of our 11 games being MVFC games. And even while this seemed to be down year for MVFC .. many said the same thing in 2019.

So while the MVFC didn't have a great or good year by MVFC standards, I have no doubt teams like 7-4 YSU, 6-5 UNI would fare well in playoff playing again most unseeded teams (not Top 8) except maybe from the Big Sky. And even 5-6 SIU, and our 6-5 Redbirds (before our injuries) while not deserving bids per se, could beat several of the at large bids. Even 5-6 MoST would beat several of the playoff teams. This was a team that was beating Arkansas by 10 with 12 mins left ... but lost due to 75 yd pass play and 82 yd punt return. Then got into MVFC and lost 5 straight to start conference play.

Anyway, I obviously have my strong views here .. supported by a lot of playoff history,
 

Virginia Redbird

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- in 2016, our Redbirds finished 6-5 .. got the last at large bid. Go to #12 UCA leading after dominating them for 3 qtrs, then 2 uncharacteristic bad special teams plays early in Q4 gives them 10 points and momentum - we lost by 7 in a game we should have won. That year we lost to 6-5 EIU, 4-7 ISUb, and 4-7 USD. We also beat a very tough Northwestern team and SDSU team.
So you had to bring back up memories of that particular UCA game on that hideous purple and grey turf! That is one playoff game that was disappointing, aggravating, and frustrating all at once. I have tried to put the memories of that game on the shelf...and then you bring it up!!! 😆
 

fourthandshort

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There is some really funky things going on with this year's play-offs....



I was trying to figure out how Weber St didn't get a Top 8 seed .. and I don't even mean 8th .. I mean like 5th thru 7th.

They finished 9-2 with only losses to #2 seed Sacramento St by 3 and to #4 seed Mont St by 5 on road. The beat FBS #93 Utah St (6-6) by 28 at their place. They played the #12 SOS according to Massey. How did they not get a top 8 seed ????

#8 Holy Cross was 11-0 and played the #81 SOS. They beat teams like 4-7 Lafayette by 3, and 4-7 Bryant by 7. They did beat FBS #105 Buffalo (5-6) but by just 7. Weber St had much better resume.

#7 seed IW was 9-1 and played the #58 SOS ... just 1 less loss playing the #58 schedule vs the #12 schedule. Note, I removed their win against a bad 4-7 NAIA team, as did the selection committee. Weber St had much better resume.

#6 Samford (10-1) deserved a seed playing against the #14 SOS, but no moreso than Weber St. Samford played 1 playoff team. Weber St played 3 playoff teams. Weber St had comparable or better resume.

#5 W&M (10-1) may have deserved a top 8 seed ... Except they played the #46 SOS. and noone in the top 8. Weber St resume is better.

As for the Colonial conf getting 5 teams .. here is how Massey ranked each of the Colonial teams SOS:

.. SOS #24 Elon 8-3 .. lost round 1 to 9-2 Furman by 25 at home !

.. SOS #34 Rhode Island 7-4 .. no bid

.. SOS #41 New Hampshire 8-3 .. beat autobid Fordham (9-2, but ranked 43 by Massey) by 10

.. SOS #43 Delaware 8-3 .. blew out Autobid St Francis (9-2 but ranked 50 by Massey)

.. SOS #46 W&M 10-1 .. got a 5 seed, and now get to play autobid Gardner-Webb (ranked 38 by Massey), who beat 7-4 EKU, whose resume was not better than 7-4 YSU.

.. SOS #47 Richmond 9-2 .. just blew out autobid Davidson (8-3, but ranked 101 by Massey) - their best win was by 1 pt over #103 Dayton.

3 observations about Colonial getting 5 bids

1. it was complete bullsh-t. This nonsense has happened before and it is happening again. They have done so poorly the last 12 years in the playoffs, including other years they unjustly got 4, 5, 6 teams and then sh-t the bed collectively in playoffs.

2. They clearly loaded up on weak OOC schedules this season, probably because they have sh-t the bed so often in the playoffs the last 12 years .. well under .500 as conference excluding JMU.

3. dont be fooled by their first round wins .. they got all the bad conf auto bids from out east. Teams that load up wins against bad teams in bad conferences and then win their conference: Fordham, St Francis, Gardner Webb, & Davidson .. all are/were paired with Colonial.

Only Elon played a real playoff team in Furman and got smoked by 25 at home. Note, Elon beat W&M, Richmond, and Delaware.

Regionalism and autobids have been oh so good to the Colonial conference. They';; beat some bad teams, then get smoked by Big Sky and MVFC.
 
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