Birds picked 5th

[fdbird83]

http://valley-football.org/news/2017/7/24/football-north-dakota-state-south-dakota-state-atop-mvfc-pre-season-poll.aspx

 

[Redbirdwarrior]

I just don't buy it. I know last year wasn't a banner year, but it was a playoff year. The defense is slated to be BETTER and I have to assume the QB play would be much improved.

I'd go as low as 3rd.

 

[isuquinndog]

I'm more surprised that there is a virtual tie for 1st between the Dakotas.

 

[RedbirdSoxFan]

Illinois State may be better this year, but it's possible NDSU, SDSU, YSU, & UNI also are going to be better than they were last year. I think Illinois State being picked 5th is a testament to how tough the conference is going to be this year.

 

[ISUBU]

NDSU and SDSU have a lot of experienced players back and are in the national title hunt. They're pretty clearly out in front.

We are confident of our talent stepping in to key roles. But there's not so much reason for the coaches and writers around the league to share that confidence. They go with the guys who they've seen play. We also have a lot of work to do in replacing the O-Line. Given that we're filling 4 of 5 spots there, with players who have little game experience so far, there remain some question marks . We're also replacing our linebackers, but there we have some guys who've played a bit - either for the Redbirds or another team.

WIU has improved quite a bit over the past few years, and has a lot of key talent returning. I do think the loss of outstanding WRs will impact them.

UNI seems to have underachieved in recent years. They brag a lot on their brilliant coaches, but I still don't understand their coaches' unwillingness to play their best QB against us in the playoffs in 2015.

YSU lost a lot of important parts scattered throughout their team.

I think we're even with WIU, and ahead of YSU then UNI.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Illinois State may be better this year, but it's possible NDSU, SDSU, YSU, & UNI also are going to be better than they were last year. I think Illinois State being picked 5th is a testament to how tough the conference is going to be this year.

Have a real hard time believing YSU will be better than a team that made it to the natty title game and lost a ton.

 

[fourthandshort]

NDSU and SDSU have a lot of experienced players back and are in the national title hunt. They're pretty clearly out in front.

We are confident of our talent stepping in to key roles. But there's not so much reason for the coaches and writers around the league to share that confidence. They go with the guys who they've seen play. We also have a lot of work to do in replacing the O-Line. Given that we're filling 4 of 5 spots there, with players who have little game experience so far, there remain some question marks . We're also replacing our linebackers, but there we have some guys who've played a bit - either for the Redbirds or another team.

WIU has improved quite a bit over the past few years, and has a lot of key talent returning. I do think the loss of outstanding WRs will impact them.

UNI seems to have underachieved in recent years. They brag a lot on their brilliant coaches, but I still don't understand their coaches' unwillingness to play their best QB against us in the playoffs in 2015.

YSU lost a lot of important parts scattered throughout their team.

I think we're even with WIU, and ahead of YSU then UNI.

stop stealing my thoughts !! nealry 100% agree.

To me, our range is 2nd place to 5th place depending on OL. But our defense will carry us while our offense and OL figure themselves out with easier schedule in first half. Going to be hard to win at SDSU this year, then come home and beat NDSU .. I can see the latter of 2 as more likely. SDSU also has NDSU at home, which I think gives SDSU the nod for 1st place.

Would only add to your thoughts as follows .. the lower half of our conference will be toughest it's been in a while, maybe ever. There is strong argument to say SDSU and NDSU will be as good as last year .. then ISU, WIU, SIU, USD, MoST will all be better, while UNI and InSU will be same, and only YSU will be worse.

WIU and MoST are near the top in returnee starters and stats from last season. USD continues their climb to respectability, SIU was surprisingly competitive last year .. think new young coach has given them shot of serious mojo.

I don't see a true gimme on schedule .. right now, i would not be surprised if we have 3 teams in contention for top 8 (NDSU, SDSU, ISU) and 2 to 3 more in strong consideration for playoff bids.

 

[fourthandshort]

forgot to add my pick. Starting with MVFC picks, then resorted to my picks

Team (first-place votes) Points .. weakness- the will slip if ?
2. South Dakota State (19) 379 .. if they slip, it's because of their defense
1. North Dakota State (21) 380 .. their offense lacking firepower
5. Illinois State 246 .. our OL is slow to develop
6. Western Illinois 188 .. mainly defense and loss of WR stud
7. South Dakota 182 ... defense
4. UNI 255 .. too many new coachs and offense
8. Southern Illinois 132 .. defense and overal depth to compete in MVFC
3. Youngstown State 290 .. Pelling head explodes as defense struggles to replace all those studs
9. Missouri State 81 ... just not enough fire power, though lot coming back
10. Indiana State 67 .. just not enough defense or depth to compete in MVFC

Teams most likely to surprise .. ISU and SIU
Teams most likely to slip .. YSU and UNI

 

[MadBird]

Won't put in the link at this point because my laptop is crapping out at the cabin, so will be brief. But, the Sioux Falls reporter picked the Birds for third, FWIW. I think there is plenty of respect for "the program". The D will win games for us. Looking for our OL, and OL coach, to get the job done!

Edit:
Here it is!!

http://www.argusleader.com/story/bl...i-valley-football-preseason-ballot/477769001/

 

[fourthandshort]

Historical perspective on MVFC pre-season polls of ISU:

Year Pre-season / Actual
2016: 4th / 4th (round of 16)
2015: 2nd / 1st-T (round of 8)
2014: 6th / 1st-T (finals 2) .. Spack and some of us on Redbird Forum knew in August we had something very special and predicted a playoff run before Roberson was named starter.
2013: 4th / 6th .. though a respectable 4-4 record
2012: 4th / 3rd (round of 8)
2011: 5th / 3rd (screwed out of playoff bid)
2010: 3rd / 3rd-T .. amazingly a 6 way tie for 3rd with all teams 4-4
2009: 8th / 3rd

Note Spack inherited a 3-8 team (2-6, 8th place in MVFC) from 2008 .. hence predicted to finish in 8th again in 2009, Spaces first year .. and he finished 3rd. Bu we've come a very long way since 2010.

So all toll Spack outperformed this poll 5 times in 8 years, matched poll 2 years.

The only year a Spack team under-performed in conference was 2013 .. though finished 4-4 in conference .... which some years gets you tie for 3rd place, other years gets you 6th place. But it was a rough year at 5-6 overall .. first half of season was disaster, 2nd half was very respectable and laid foundation for natty run in 2014.

I predict we outperform MVFC poll again and finish 3rd.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

I just don't buy it. I know last year wasn't a banner year, but it was a playoff year. The defense is slated to be BETTER and I have to assume the QB play would be much improved.

I'd go as low as 3rd.

Will be interesting to see where the disconnect is between ISU fans that generally seem to have them in the top 3 of the MVFC and the media/coaches that have ISU placed towards the middle of the conference. Is it the bad kool-aid or know nothing pollers?

 

[StLRedbird]

The difference between 5th and 3rd is often 1 game, yes?

Personally, I'd like to see some of these highly rated OL recruits start punching at their weight. JMO.

 

[fourthandshort]

The difference between 5th and 3rd is often 1 game, yes?

Personally, I'd like to see some of these highly rated OL recruits start punching at their weight. JMO.

welcome back stlrb !

chirb .. we've outperformed the poll 5 of 8 years, matched it 2 years, and underperformed the poll 1 year .. see below if you missed this earlier. And in 2016, I would argue we gave away 2 or 3 games because we took a while to figure out who we were under new OC Dicken, after sudden departure of Beathard in June .. so we woul dhave put performed the poll if we win just 1 of those 3 (EIU, InSU, USD).

So the disconnect is more with pollsters than our red koolaid drinking forum !!! We were talking long playoff run in Aug 2014 after getting picked 6th .. Spack had a sh-t eating grin all August after that poll came out .. and he admitted as much.

With our OL questions, I can see 2nd to 5th place .. I'm betting on 3rd because of our defense and I love our schedule .. the schedule will help our OL get ready slow but sure.

Year Pre-season / Actual
2016: 4th / 4th (round of 16)
2015: 2nd / 1st-T (round of 8)
2014: 6th / 1st-T (finals 2) .. Spack and some of us on Redbird Forum knew in August we had something very special and predicted a playoff run before Roberson was named starter.
2013: 4th / 6th .. though a respectable 4-4 record
2012: 4th / 3rd (round of 8)
2011: 5th / 3rd (screwed out of playoff bid)
2010: 3rd / 3rd-T .. amazingly a 6 way tie for 3rd with all teams 4-4
2009: 8th / 3rd

 

[Birdfan 4Life]

If our offense comes together we have a chance of at least 3rd.

If our offense doesn't come together we still have a chance at finishing 3rd with our Defense.

 

[Source]

Kolbe is going to have a great season. Its really just about him taking the next step. His first season when he came in for Roberson a few times he looked good (against Iowa and I know there was another time.... Richmond?). The last year, it was his ball and as other have said, it took him time to get comfortable. Keep in mind, he was battling an injury most of last year. Towards the end of the season he was utilizing short and mid-range patterns better than any quarterback we have had in recent memory (Roberson and Brown).

The key to this season will be a balanced offense, which we couldn't establish much last season. Ideally, our pass-run game is 51-49 in favor of the pass. If we can successfully run the ball with Robinson and Smith (both sophomores by the way!) that's going to make the deep ball wide open like when Roberson and Coprich were back there to open things up for Warrum, Cam, James, and Neblett. I'm really excited to see Anthony Fowler's development. When he was recruited one of the coaches said he was one of the fastest players we have ever had, just needed to learn to be a receiver. With Schnell and Gibbs running routes, just put Fowler on the edge on a fly and air it out!

I also just looked down the roster. At first glance, we do not have a lot of seniors on this team. With another great recruiting class being redshirted, man, this team should be good for a while.

 

[crazzymark]

If Kolbe can muster a good season...alot of options to work with..great running and receiver group..but If he can,t think in the pocket then who is the backup...but next season will rock...Hatfield..

 

[fourthandshort]

If Kolbe can muster a good season...alot of options to work with..great running and receiver group..but If he can,t think in the pocket then who is the backup...but next season will rock...Hatfield..

aas long as OC Dickens designs his overall system to adjust each week for his game plans (leading up to game) and play calling (during game) based on how far along the OL group is developing and who we are playing .. Kolbe will emerge as one of the best QBs in MVFC in terms of being both a game manager and a thrower. He was very succesful in HS because he was primarily a very good game manager.

Last season's first half problems and inconsistencies were the result of Beathard sudden resignation combined with Kolbe learning to get comfortable in D-I pocket .. not just because Beathard was a very smart OC, but also because he was able to stay clam during storms and think things thru without going nuts and rattling the players. OC Dicknens has some growing up to do as an OC .. he seemed to figure things out slowly as season progressed. I'm hoping his progression and maturation continues ... he needs to keep his cool, especially during games. Kolbe needs to know Dickens has his back for this offensce to be successful .. period !!!

anectdote .. heard from reliable source there was a key play on a key drive early last season where after a timeout, Kolbe started running back on field and Dickens yelled out for all to hear (maybe other team too ) .. "we can't have a pick here" .. or something to that effect. How about this instead .. quickly take him aside so no one else hears it and say .. "be sure to dump it if the play aint there".

just saying ... Dickens needs to have Kolbes back or there could be way worse struggles than early last year with 4 of 5 new OL. I'll give Dicken credit for steadying the ship as season progressed .. but 3 of the 4 OL we lost from last season, when we struggled early, are in NFL camps right now .. so it is even more critical this coming fall to game plan accordingly and stay cool during rough times.

 

[Phantom]

The offense could be frustrating at times as they get their wheels under them but the good thing is our defense should be strong enough to keep us in games. With that, we'll always have a chance to win. With some question marks throughout, early wins and confidence will be important.

 

[BEAT THE BISON]

College Sports Madness has the Birds placed lower and 29th overall and does not mention any of the new players making a impact..........


http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/14960

 

[fourthandshort]

College Sports Madness has the Birds placed lower and 29th overall and does not mention any of the new players making a impact..........


http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/14960

nice 2016 recap and 2017 overview, including the importance of how our schedule lays out .... but one glaring omission was they did not account for 3 key transfer additions, who are very likely to shore up the RB and LB groups.

RB Markel Smith .. sat out last year due to transfer rules. If he's healthy and stayed in shape, going to be very fun watching him and James Robinson wear teams down. Both 225 lb Res who can run and punish tacklers.

LBers Horton (Juco/TCU transfer, Juco defensive player of year) and Barajas (Notre Dame Transfer, 3-4 star) .. both will have big roles on defense. Once they learn system, this group should be better than last year.

so they clearly did their homework, except for "key additions" ... difference between 3rd place and 6th place is usually 1 game .. but there just are not 5 teams in MVFC that are better than ISU ... especially with YSU and UNI expecting down years.