Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

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Rollbirds5

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Looks like this conversation was getting started so creating its own thread. This guy always does a good job of laying out the probabilities

 
isuquinndog

isuquinndog

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crazzymark said:
Hello Thursday my old friend.....
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Dude that's not a thing any more. All but 4 teams play Thursday now.
Stop It Michael Jordan GIF
 
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Redbird60451

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So basically we need a three way tie between Murray St, Belmont, and us. Because we are 3-1, Belmont would be 2-2, and Murray St would be 1-3. That would line us up to play the Flames at around 9 pm, so we can really help the St. Louis economy on Thursday by pregaming all day long.
 
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Metamoron

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I was looking at the other tool and I figured it was gonna be us and Evansville and I hate that matchup. They are so much better than their seed.
 
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Baltimore Bird

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If we can't beat Evansville on a neutral floor, we should not be worrying about our seed. I am not saying they aren't at times decent, but they are a 10 seed in the MVC and should be....
 
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Metamoron

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This is a quote from the Evansville game thread after the game a couple weeks ago:

What a great team win vs a pesky Evansville team that idk if anyone truly knows how good they are and how good they have been playing. Evansville with Humrichous in the lineup is 14-5. They have lost 3 in a row but 2 of those were from last second shots at Murray State and vs Drake. So up until the current 3 game losing streak Evansville was 14-2 with Humrichous in the lineup.

Not saying we shouldn’t beat them, just saying they are a scary 10 seed. They lost on a last second shot vs Drake and beat Bradley.
 
ISU86

ISU86

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Redbird60451 said:
So basically we need a three way tie between Murray St, Belmont, and us. Because we are 3-1, Belmont would be 2-2, and Murray St would be 1-3. That would line us up to play the Flames at around 9 pm, so we can really help the St. Louis economy on Thursday by pregaming all day long.
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the other option was a two-way tie with Northern Iowa, but that went the way of the Dodo bird last night with the Panthers victory over the Beacons.
 
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DoubleDeuce

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Just ran across this clip...whoever comes out of St. Louis and represents The Valley, let's hope they don't make me hurt like this one did. Almost as bad as watching the Panthers meltdown against Texas A&M.

 
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Dmills

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Dmills said:

I like those odds.
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Notably, this also shows Indiana State locked into the 1, Drake locked into the 2, Bradley locked into the 3, Missouri State locked into the 9, and Evansville locked into the 10.
 
ISU86

ISU86

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Dmills said:
Notably, this also shows Indiana State locked into the 1, Drake locked into the 2, Bradley locked into the 3, Missouri State locked into the 9, and Evansville locked into the 10.
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"Technically", since Drake and Indiana State split their regular season series, if they were to end in a tie (Bulldogs win, Sycamores lose) it would still come down to NET (which currently shows InSU at 28 and DU at 50). My guess is the probability of their rank flip-flopping based on remaining results is less than 0.5% (possible but not probable).

Same holds true for four seed with Belmont, Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois all currently tied (Bruins 123, Panthers 121, Salukis 107). The Bruins will tie for either fourth or fifth place with whichever school (Panthers, Salukis) has the same outcome (loss or win) in their match-up as BeU does with UE (since they split their regular season series with both UNI and SIU).

The game to watch on Sunday is Cedar Falls at Carbondale. The winner (assuming NET holds) gets the four seed and the loser is five or six (depending on the outcome in Nashville).

As for us, we are seventh seed (and match-up with Purple Aces Thursday at 6:00 PM) with either a Racers loss or Redbirds win; if neither occurs, we are eighth seed (and play the Bears Thursday at noon).
 
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