9 wins or bust

[crazzymark]

For the Redbirds to make the playoffs, they are going to show they can beat a national ranked team. With 3 of the last 5 games against ranked teams, ( INU,SDSU and YSU) ISU can not have a bad week against the trees or the cubs and has to beat 2 of the ranked teams to get an open bid by the selection committee. GO YOU DAMN BIRDS AND WIN THIS GAME!!

 

[fourthandshort]

If we are able to win the 3 expected games: ISUb (home), MoST (home) YSU (road) ... that gives us 8 wins for sure. As long as we don't crap the bed against both SDSU (road) and UNI (home) ... we're a lock for playoff bid at 8-4 playing in MVFC. Because that will mean we went 5-3 in MVFC and 3-1 OOC with an FBS loss.

If we beat SDSU or UNI, we have real shot at top 8 seed. Lot of parity out there which makes our 9-3 record standout. But 8-4 is more realistic at this point ... and that will be good enough for bid.

 

[Manchester Matt]

Assuming Crazzy hasn’t seen the records of FCS teams. The bubble will be awful.

No chance in hell an 8-4 ISU doesn’t go to the playoffs.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

CAA is eating themselves, they are looking at a low of 3 total bids to 4 at most. However, SOCON is making a push for 3 top teams (not implying they’ll get 3 bids, but may make a case for 2.)
Every other conference is all flippy-floppy: best Big Sky...Sac State? Best in OVC...UT Martin?
So interesting

 

[fourthandshort]

Big Sky looks strong at opt again this year and deeper than last year. They could get 4 or 5 teams, unless the cannibalize themselves at the top these last 5 games. Sac St came out of nowhere and looks completely legit as top 4.

Colonial is also deep but already cannibalizing themselves ... hope they get a strong dose of what MVFC has dealt with for most of this decade !! But they will likely get 3 teams (or more) no matter what. JMU and Villanova looking strong so far.

Southern is weak this year .. if they get 3 teams, they should throw a party. I'm thinking 2 teams at most.

Southland ... very hard to say .. they're definitely strenghtening and deeper, but not necessarily strong at top .. but they do seem deeper than last year for sure. They cold get 3 again if they don't cannibalize themselves.

MVFC looks strong at top but weaker than ever (in last decade anyway) at bottom. So 4-4 records in MVFC probably won't mean as much this year compared to prior years IMO. Im thinking 4 teams for sure, 5 now looks very doubtful.

Locks: NDSU, SDSU

Very likely: 4-3 UNI, and 5-2 ISUr ... both haave 2 tough games left, both have to plasy SDSU, and than our head to head in Normal.

Bubble teams: 4-3 YSU, 3-4 ISUb, 3-4 SIU, 3-4 USD .. each of them have 2 real tough games left ... so all are leaning wrong way on bubble, but 7-5 just met get a few bubble teams this year. Three 6-4 bubble teams made it last year over 6-4 ISUb ... which was a farce. We deserve a 7-5 team in year like this.

No chance: WIU, MoST

But if the selection committee is as ignorant about SOS as they've shown in when it comes to bubble teams, our bubble teams should have a shot. They won't notice our depth is not as strong this year. And they will freshly recall they gave CAA 6 bids last year and they sh-t the bed with 4 going one and done in playin games .. as a conference, CAA went 3-6 with their 6 bids.

My bet right now ... 4 MVFC teams for sure, maybe a 5th at 7-5 will get in , since we got screwed again last year.

 

[Sanantoniobird]

Big Sky looks strong at opt again this year and deeper than last year. They could get 4 or 5 teams, unless the cannibalize themselves at the top these last 5 games. Sac St came out of nowhere and looks completely legit as top 4.

Colonial is also deep but already cannibalizing themselves ... hope they get a strong dose of what MVFC has dealt with for most of this decade !! But they will likely get 3 teams (or more) no matter what. JMU and Villanova looking strong so far.

Southern is weak this year .. if they get 3 teams, they should throw a party. I'm thinking 2 teams at most.

Southland ... very hard to say .. they're definitely strenghtening and deeper, but not necessarily strong at top .. but they do seem deeper than last year for sure. They cold get 3 again if they don't cannibalize themselves.

MVFC looks strong at top but weaker than ever (in last decade anyway) at bottom. So 4-4 records in MVFC probably won't mean as much this year compared to prior years IMO. Im thinking 4 teams for sure, 5 now looks very doubtful.

Locks: NDSU, SDSU

Very likely: 4-3 UNI, and 5-2 ISUr ... both haave 2 tough games left, both have to plasy SDSU, and than our head to head in Normal.

Bubble teams: 4-3 YSU, 3-4 ISUb, 3-4 SIU, 3-4 USD .. each of them have 2 real tough games left ... so all are leaning wrong way on bubble, but 7-5 just met get a few bubble teams this year. Three 6-4 bubble teams made it last year over 6-4 ISUb ... which was a farce. We deserve a 7-5 team in year like this.

No chance: WIU, MoST

But if the selection committee is as ignorant about SOS as they've shown in when it comes to bubble teams, our bubble teams should have a shot. They won't notice our depth is not as strong this year. And they will freshly recall they gave CAA 6 bids last year and they sh-t the bed with 4 going one and done in playin games .. as a conference, CAA went 3-6 with their 6 bids.

My bet right now ... 4 MVFC teams for sure, maybe a 5th at 7-5 will get in , since we got screwed again last year.

Big Sky: 5 teams? I only legit see 4.
Portland st. has not shown any reason to be a top team as they have had a favorable schedule. We are about to see what they’re made of tho. I could be totally wrong. On average big three get 9-10 at-large. I see 3 for MVFC, 2 for CAA and 3 maybe 4 for Big Sky. If another sneaks in for CAA, then SOCON might be the casualty. There’s a chance Southland sees a bump, they are getting a lot of respect as of late.
Appreciate your opinion, fourth.

 

[Redbird28]

Big Sky looks strong at opt again this year and deeper than last year. They could get 4 or 5 teams, unless the cannibalize themselves at the top these last 5 games. Sac St came out of nowhere and looks completely legit as top 4.

Colonial is also deep but already cannibalizing themselves ... hope they get a strong dose of what MVFC has dealt with for most of this decade !! But they will likely get 3 teams (or more) no matter what. JMU and Villanova looking strong so far.

Southern is weak this year .. if they get 3 teams, they should throw a party. I'm thinking 2 teams at most.

Southland ... very hard to say .. they're definitely strenghtening and deeper, but not necessarily strong at top .. but they do seem deeper than last year for sure. They cold get 3 again if they don't cannibalize themselves.

MVFC looks strong at top but weaker than ever (in last decade anyway) at bottom. So 4-4 records in MVFC probably won't mean as much this year compared to prior years IMO. Im thinking 4 teams for sure, 5 now looks very doubtful.

Locks: NDSU, SDSU

Very likely: 4-3 UNI, and 5-2 ISUr ... both haave 2 tough games left, both have to plasy SDSU, and than our head to head in Normal.

Bubble teams: 4-3 YSU, 3-4 ISUb, 3-4 SIU, 3-4 USD .. each of them have 2 real tough games left ... so all are leaning wrong way on bubble, but 7-5 just met get a few bubble teams this year. Three 6-4 bubble teams made it last year over 6-4 ISUb ... which was a farce. We deserve a 7-5 team in year like this.

No chance: WIU, MoST

But if the selection committee is as ignorant about SOS as they've shown in when it comes to bubble teams, our bubble teams should have a shot. They won't notice our depth is not as strong this year. And they will freshly recall they gave CAA 6 bids last year and they sh-t the bed with 4 going one and done in playin games .. as a conference, CAA went 3-6 with their 6 bids.

My bet right now ... 4 MVFC teams for sure, maybe a 5th at 7-5 will get in , since we got screwed again last year.

Big Sky: 5 teams? I only legit see 4.
Portland st. has not shown any reason to be a top team as they have had a favorable schedule. We are about to see what they’re made of tho. I could be totally wrong. On average big three get 9-10 at-large. I see 3 for MVFC, 2 for CAA and 3 maybe 4 for Big Sky. If another sneaks in for CAA, then SOCON might be the casualty. There’s a chance Southland sees a bump, they are getting a lot of respect as of late.
Appreciate your opinion, fourth.

Based on this logic, that means our game vs UNI on 11/2 is essentially a playoff game.

 

[fourthandshort]

I see our game vs UNI as the game that gives us a possible top 8 seed, but that further assumes we win the other 3 games we should win to go 9-3.

As for Big Sky getting 5 teams .. i say that only because right now, it looks like they have 4 strong teams at 5-2 (though that could change too), so thinking 1 other team could get hot ... UCD, EWU, UND (they're decent).

... 4-4 UCD has toughest schedule remaining ... three ranked 5-2 teams. But they would be a lock if they finished 7-5 with likely #1 SOS in FCS.

... 4-3 UND has 2 tough and 2 easy games left .. if they finish 7-5, they would be solid bubble team with pretty strong SOS.

... 3-4 EWU has easiest schedule remaining and could finish 7-5 or 8-4. Though I doubt they get in at 7-5, since they have a non DI win ... so EWU has to win out. But their playoff history will weigh heavily on committee if they get hot at end of season.

But no, not 5-3 Portland St .... 2 of their wins are bad non D-I teams, and 2 of their D-I wins are over 1 win teams. Their best win is over 3-5 Idaho. Plus they still have to play the 3 toughest teams on their entire schedule and NAU .. so all tough games left .. they could easily go 0-4, maybe 1-3 at best from here.

So I'm guessing 1 of those 3 could get hot. Right now, the perepction is Big Sky is strongest conference .. so that will weigh on committee's mind. And IMO, the MVFC has NEVER gotten a single questionable bid or benefit of doubt like Colonial, Big Sky, Southland, our Southern has ... and by never I'm referring to since 2010.

 

[Reggie Redbird]

Big Sky looks strong at opt again this year and deeper than last year. They could get 4 or 5 teams, unless the cannibalize themselves at the top these last 5 games. Sac St came out of nowhere and looks completely legit as top 4.

Colonial is also deep but already cannibalizing themselves ... hope they get a strong dose of what MVFC has dealt with for most of this decade !! But they will likely get 3 teams (or more) no matter what. JMU and Villanova looking strong so far.

Southern is weak this year .. if they get 3 teams, they should throw a party. I'm thinking 2 teams at most.

Southland ... very hard to say .. they're definitely strenghtening and deeper, but not necessarily strong at top .. but they do seem deeper than last year for sure. They cold get 3 again if they don't cannibalize themselves.

MVFC looks strong at top but weaker than ever (in last decade anyway) at bottom. So 4-4 records in MVFC probably won't mean as much this year compared to prior years IMO. Im thinking 4 teams for sure, 5 now looks very doubtful.

Locks: NDSU, SDSU

Very likely: 4-3 UNI, and 5-2 ISUr ... both haave 2 tough games left, both have to plasy SDSU, and than our head to head in Normal.

Bubble teams: 4-3 YSU, 3-4 ISUb, 3-4 SIU, 3-4 USD .. each of them have 2 real tough games left ... so all are leaning wrong way on bubble, but 7-5 just met get a few bubble teams this year. Three 6-4 bubble teams made it last year over 6-4 ISUb ... which was a farce. We deserve a 7-5 team in year like this.

No chance: WIU, MoST

But if the selection committee is as ignorant about SOS as they've shown in when it comes to bubble teams, our bubble teams should have a shot. They won't notice our depth is not as strong this year. And they will freshly recall they gave CAA 6 bids last year and they sh-t the bed with 4 going one and done in playin games .. as a conference, CAA went 3-6 with their 6 bids.

My bet right now ... 4 MVFC teams for sure, maybe a 5th at 7-5 will get in , since we got screwed again last year.

Big Sky: 5 teams? I only legit see 4.
Portland st. has not shown any reason to be a top team as they have had a favorable schedule. We are about to see what they’re made of tho. I could be totally wrong. On average big three get 9-10 at-large. I see 3 for MVFC, 2 for CAA and 3 maybe 4 for Big Sky. If another sneaks in for CAA, then SOCON might be the casualty. There’s a chance Southland sees a bump, they are getting a lot of respect as of late.
Appreciate your opinion, fourth.

Based on this logic, that means our game vs UNI on 11/2 is essentially a playoff game.

I believe he’s referencing 3 at-large in addition to the auto bid likely going to the NDSU-SDSU winner.

If we’re 8-4, we’re in the playoffs for sure. 7-5 is still a shot although we won’t really have a big signature win. 9-3 should mean a big seed because it means a big win over SDSU or our losses only to NIU, NDSU, and SDSU.

 

[TIMMY]

Mark! Good to hear from you man. With you. 9-3. 8-4 = first round away. :naughty:

 

[Chi-bird]

We have taken care of business (albeit unimpressively) since the family weekend debacle. We’ve won every game we were suppose to win. We’ve looked bad in wins, but won anyways. I agree with 4th in that we can possibly afford one more regular season close loss if we want to have a shot at a top 8 spot....which should be the goal.

 

[Chi-bird]

We have taken care of business (albeit unimpressively) since the family weekend debacle. We’ve won every game we were suppose to win. We’ve looked bad in wins, but won anyways. I agree with 4th in that we can possibly afford one more regular season close loss if we want to have a shot at a top 8 spot....which should be the goal.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

We have taken care of business (albeit unimpressively) since the family weekend debacle. We’ve won every game we were suppose to win. We’ve looked bad in wins, but won anyways. I agree with 4th in that we can possibly afford one more regular season close loss if we want to have a shot at a top 8 spot....which should be the goal.

Yes, as long as the Birds take care of business. The past couple of years what has hurt them has been dropping games to teams they should have beaten. Losing to MO State just one example. The past few years that has happened too often. SDSU is on the road and I don't expect a win in that one. UNI they have at home so they have a bit of an edge. MOState, YSU and ISUb they need to get the win. I don't feel they got screwed last year at all in the selection. If they won the games they should have won they would have been in the playoffs. They did not win so they were left at home. It will be the same this year. Win the games you should or need to win and you move on. Lose and you stay home. Go Birds....get a Homecoming win!

 

[redbirds2000]

1-5 during November the past 2 years.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[fourthandshort]

We have taken care of business (albeit unimpressively) since the family weekend debacle. We’ve won every game we were suppose to win. We’ve looked bad in wins, but won anyways. I agree with 4th in that we can possibly afford one more regular season close loss if we want to have a shot at a top 8 spot....which should be the goal.

Yes, as long as the Birds take care of business. The past couple of years what has hurt them has been dropping games to teams they should have beaten. Losing to MO State just one example. The past few years that has happened too often. SDSU is on the road and I don't expect a win in that one. UNI they have at home so they have a bit of an edge. MOState, YSU and ISUb they need to get the win. I don't feel they got screwed last year at all in the selection. If they won the games they should have won they would have been in the playoffs. They did not win so they were left at home. It will be the same this year. Win the games you should or need to win and you move on. Lose and you stay home. Go Birds....get a Homecoming win!

agreed .. just for perspective, here is chronology

2016 ... lost to EIU (home), ISUb (road), and USD (road) .. each by 3 points to finish 6-5 .. made playoffs anyway with several big wins over very good teams. I dub this team Sybil.

2017 .. lost to NAU (road) and SIU (road) .. both were blowouts in which we were the favored team. SIU game was first time since 2010 I though Spack completely lost his team. Got it righ back a week later beating a top 5 USD team decisvely ... Sybil 2

2018 .. lost to MoST and ISUb (road)... never should have lost to MoST, and completely outplayed ISUb only to lose by 5. This season fell short mainly because of Q2 collapses in 4 of 5 losses, due mostly to turnovers that resulted in points. Got outscored 72-0 in our 4 losses in Q2 ... 75% due to turnovers they turned into points.

2019 ... knock on wood, none so far.

Still want us to work on our pass game, but now were sitting at 6-2 and in the drivers seat to make playoffs. Keep taking care of business in games we should win ... and please keep working on our pass game. Would love to see Edgar back for MoST .. give us an extra threat to close out season against MoST and YSU, and prepare for playoffs.

 

[crazzymark]

looks like a win will be needed at YSU to finish in the top 8. A loss could push them down to 11-14 and hanging by a thread due to SDSU jumping ahead of ISU in the rankings.

 

[redbirdfan04]

I don't think that us needing a win to get a bye is a surprise. I like SDSU jumping in front of us. A six seed puts us on the other side of the bracket from NDSU. None of this matters if we don't win. If we lose I have a feeling we get to play SIU at home and then at UNI, SDSU, or NDSU next. That would be a brutal two weeks.

 

[redbirdfan04]

The committee wants MVFC teams out as fast as possible in my opinion. Putting them against each other is the easy thing to do.

 

[fourthandshort]

I'll take a seed, but unless several teams lose in front of us .. like SDSU, Montana St, UNI .. best we'll do with a win over YSU is 7th (paired with JMU) or 8th (paired with NDSU) in round of 8 ... so pick your poison. Best thing about top 8 seed is week off for Davis and others to heel, and then hosting round of 16 game ... thse things improve out chances of making round of 8 ... but then we'll fly to NDSU or JMU ... tough road to hoe for sure. But I'll take it .. making round of 8 given how we've played, would be a good result. I'll take more ... but just being realistic ... would love to be wrong.

 

[ISUBU]

The committee wants MVFC teams out as fast as possible in my opinion. Putting them against each other is the easy thing to do.

2018
3 MVFC teams made the playoffs, separated into three different quarterfinal groupings.

2017
5 MVFC teams made the playoffs, separated into all four different quarterfinal groupings, but the fifth team doubled up and played MVFC in 2nd round.

The committee has done a better job in recent years of minimizing potential rematches early in the playoffs. They also try to minimize travel. Those two goals conflict at times, especially when dealing with a small group of teams. But it is better than it used to be.

What IS likely, is that a CAA team will be given a cream puff game early against either a Northeast or Patriot team. Closest likely playoff teams to ISU that aren't in the MVFC: SEMO, Austin Peay, Central Arkansas, Kennesaw State. I'm guessing we'll run into one of these in our first game. I do think it could be SIU as well, if they're the 5th MVFC team. But they might put them in the quarterfinal cluster with UNI, since they didn't play this season.