Year in Review

[Redbird Alum 2004]

I just wanted a place to talk about how the team and players did offer the past year. There has been some chatter in other threads but thought we would benefit from an all encompassing one.
One thing that I have found puzzling of the performance of Lewis. He developed into a very solid rebounder the last couple years but I remember him being a better shooter his first year at ISU. I went back and looked at his stats sure enough it is a night and day difference and he took a lot more his first year. Looking at this and looking at how this team shoots in general I think we need to look at who is coaching the shooting or how they are teaching it.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Good chart on Lewis… seems he shot his historical rate this year and nearly anll years except the anomaly year of 21-22 which looks like the outlier.

 

[MadBird]

Another "how to lie with statistics" thing I always look at - the difference between "low" and "high" isn't really all that much. Last year, Lewis was 16 for 62 from range, 25.8%. In order to hit 37.5%, what he had the year before, he would have needed to hit 23 shots. So, 7 more shots over 32 games, or one more made basket every 4 games or so. This year, 9-36 for 25%. To reach 37.5%, he would have needed 4 more baskets, over 31 games, so about 1 more make every 7 games. That's nothing, really.

I did this a few years ago with batting averages for the White Sox when they had big stiff Adam ???? first baseman from Cincy Reds I think, who was hitting about .175 in September and I'm thinking how rotten that was, and it turned out his career BA was about .225 or .230 and he would've needed only another 10 or 12 hits over the year to hit his career average. Woked me up some, even tho I like to look at and quote stats in evaluating players, have to remember to keep them in perspective.

I did this exercise earlier in the year for ISU's 3 point %, compared to the NCAA stats. For DI, 50th place in 3 pt % was 36.5%. ISU shot .292 as a team, 194-665. To hit 36.5%, ISU would have needed 242 made, 48 more. Over 32 games, or about 1.5 more made hoops per game. Doesn't sound like all that much does it - you sit there watching those clankers all during a game and think, my God, get with it, and if they only had made 1 more lousy hoop per game, they'd be in the top 50.

 

[Hamdonger]

Another "how to lie with statistics" thing I always look at - the difference between "low" and "high" isn't really all that much. Last year, Lewis was 16 for 62 from range, 25.8%. In order to hit 37.5%, what he had the year before, he would have needed to hit 23 shots. So, 7 more shots over 32 games, or one more made basket every 4 games or so. This year, 9-36 for 25%. To reach 37.5%, he would have needed 4 more baskets, over 31 games, so about 1 more make every 7 games. That's nothing, really.

I did this a few years ago with batting averages for the White Sox when they had big stiff Adam ???? first baseman from Cincy Reds I think, who was hitting about .175 in September and I'm thinking how rotten that was, and it turned out his career BA was about .225 or .230 and he would've needed only another 10 or 12 hits over the year to hit his career average. Woked me up some, even tho I like to look at and quote stats in evaluating players, have to remember to keep them in perspective.

I did this exercise earlier in the year for ISU's 3 point %, compared to the NCAA stats. For DI, 50th place in 3 pt % was 36.5%. ISU shot .292 as a team, 194-665. To hit 36.5%, ISU would have needed 242 made, 48 more. Over 32 games, or about 1.5 more made hoops per game. Doesn't sound like all that much does it - you sit there watching those clankers all during a game and think, my God, get with it, and if they only had more another 1 lousy hoop per game, they'd be in the top 50.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Another "how to lie with statistics" thing I always look at - the difference between "low" and "high" isn't really all that much. Last year, Lewis was 16 for 62 from range, 25.8%. In order to hit 37.5%, what he had the year before, he would have needed to hit 23 shots. So, 7 more shots over 32 games, or one more made basket every 4 games or so. This year, 9-36 for 25%. To reach 37.5%, he would have needed 4 more baskets, over 31 games, so about 1 more make every 7 games. That's nothing, really.

I did this a few years ago with batting averages for the White Sox when they had big stiff Adam ???? first baseman from Cincy Reds I think, who was hitting about .175 in September and I'm thinking how rotten that was, and it turned out his career BA was about .225 or .230 and he would've needed only another 10 or 12 hits over the year to hit his career average. Woked me up some, even tho I like to look at and quote stats in evaluating players, have to remember to keep them in perspective.

I did this exercise earlier in the year for ISU's 3 point %, compared to the NCAA stats. For DI, 50th place in 3 pt % was 36.5%. ISU shot .292 as a team, 194-665. To hit 36.5%, ISU would have needed 242 made, 48 more. Over 32 games, or about 1.5 more made hoops per game. Doesn't sound like all that much does it - you sit there watching those clankers all during a game and think, my God, get with it, and if they only had more another 1 lousy hoop per game, they'd be in the top 50.

+100!…i basically eyeballed analyzed what you formally stated on the year where lewis shot well. Reality is that he made a handful of additional buckets (in his good season) more than what would have been anticipated based on his history. Small sample sizes so the annual 3 pt percentages move quickly…again as you indicated. Result is that we believed, or wanted to believe, he was having an off shooting year this year and that does not seem to be the case.

 

[Hamdonger]

Maddie...the more I read your post, the more I enjoyed it, because...

It illustrates how doing the little things, the obscure things, the things that maybe aren't noticed...how far into the future it can pay off.

For example...get your hands up so you can deflect one extra pass a game. Being half a second quicker from the rebound to the outlet man for a quick bucket. Making one extra bunnie per game. Going a bit harder, really laying yourself out, for one extra defensive stop per half. Are your knees locked during any time in your defensive stance? Are you getting 100 extra free throws in per day...to make one more per game...when it counts? All of you peeps could add 100 more to this wishlist.

Ohhhh, here's one. INCREASING CONVERSION SUCCESS ON AN INBOUNDS from 5% to 10%...or heavens to betsy, 20%.

That's why guys like McCollum demand a certain way to play the game. Players AND coaches are involved in this formula. And I've dived deep into this McCollum cat the last few years. These minors turn into majors, whether from a winning perspective or a losing perspective.

It's a good lesson for life. Raise your flipping standard.

 

[Dmills]

Another relevant point IMO is former coach Rob Johnson. From that team, we had multiple players shoot better that season than any other season. Lewis and Freeman in particular did a lot of work with coach Rob. The list below includes everyone with more than 17 attempts in 2021-22

As noted above, Lewis shot 37.5% compared to a career average of 28.2%.

Mark Freeman Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the Morehead State Eagles Guard Mark Freeman on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Freeman shot 38.6% compared to a career average of 33.5%. Note that his volume went up senior year which drove percentage down.

Howard Fleming Jr. Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros Guard Howard Fleming Jr. on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Fleming shot 40% compared to a career average of 32.5%.

Josiah Strong Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the Colorado State Rams Guard Josiah Strong on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Strong shot 40.9% compared to a career average of 35.7%.

Antonio Reeves Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the Kentucky Wildcats Guard Antonio Reeves on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Reeves is really the only outlier who has since improved his %.

Liam McChesney Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the High Point Panthers Forward Liam McChesney on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

If I remember correctly, McChesney had a really rough start to the year. I think a few of us wondered why he was shooting, but he picked it up. Had a better shooting year the following year.

Lewis, Freeman, Fleming, and Strong had great shooting years compared to historical averages that year.

 

[Bird Friend]

Another relevant point IMO is former coach Rob Johnson. From that team, we had multiple players shoot better that season than any other season. Lewis and Freeman in particular did a lot of work with coach Rob. The list below includes everyone with more than 17 attempts in 2021-22

As noted above, Lewis shot 37.5% compared to a career average of 28.2%.

Mark Freeman Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the Morehead State Eagles Guard Mark Freeman on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Freeman shot 38.6% compared to a career average of 33.5%. Note that his volume went up senior year which drove percentage down.

Howard Fleming Jr. Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros Guard Howard Fleming Jr. on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Fleming shot 40% compared to a career average of 32.5%.

Josiah Strong Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the Colorado State Rams Guard Josiah Strong on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Strong shot 40.9% compared to a career average of 35.7%.

Antonio Reeves Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the Kentucky Wildcats Guard Antonio Reeves on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

Reeves is really the only outlier who has since improved his %.

Liam McChesney Career Stats - NCAAM - ESPN

Complete career NCAAM stats for the High Point Panthers Forward Liam McChesney on ESPN. Includes points, rebounds, and assists.

www.espn.com

If I remember correctly, McChesney had a really rough start to the year. I think a few of us wondered why he was shooting, but he picked it up. Had a better shooting year the following year.

Lewis, Freeman, Fleming, and Strong had great shooting years compared to historical averages that year.

Johnson’s coaching approach before coming to ISU was individual development. His work was in improving player fundamentals to improve overall performance. It wasn’t one-size-fits-all.

Reeves improvement can be chalked up to the two times he put his name in the draft so he could work with coaches who specialize in individual development. We saw Reeves’ performance improve significantly from Year 1 to year 2. UK has seen Reeves’ performance improve significantly from last year to this year. Both times came from pre-draft development.

Seems to me that teams could benefit from coaches who specialize in individual development who work with kids during the off-season. Now schools are limited on the time they can work with kids during the off-season. So maybe some NIL money can be generated for the NIL Collaborative to hire a coach to work with kids in the off-season. Just a random thought . . .

 

[Redbird Alum 2004]

Another "how to lie with statistics" thing I always look at - the difference between "low" and "high" isn't really all that much. Last year, Lewis was 16 for 62 from range, 25.8%. In order to hit 37.5%, what he had the year before, he would have needed to hit 23 shots. So, 7 more shots over 32 games, or one more made basket every 4 games or so. This year, 9-36 for 25%. To reach 37.5%, he would have needed 4 more baskets, over 31 games, so about 1 more make every 7 games. That's nothing, really.

I did this a few years ago with batting averages for the White Sox when they had big stiff Adam ???? first baseman from Cincy Reds I think, who was hitting about .175 in September and I'm thinking how rotten that was, and it turned out his career BA was about .225 or .230 and he would've needed only another 10 or 12 hits over the year to hit his career average. Woked me up some, even tho I like to look at and quote stats in evaluating players, have to remember to keep them in perspective.

I did this exercise earlier in the year for ISU's 3 point %, compared to the NCAA stats. For DI, 50th place in 3 pt % was 36.5%. ISU shot .292 as a team, 194-665. To hit 36.5%, ISU would have needed 242 made, 48 more. Over 32 games, or about 1.5 more made hoops per game. Doesn't sound like all that much does it - you sit there watching those clankers all during a game and think, my God, get with it, and if they only had made 1 more lousy hoop per game, they'd be in the top 50.

I understand looking at as oh it's just a made basket here and there but. How many of those misses lead to points on the other end? It's entirely possible that those misses were long rebounds and the opposing team was able to push the ball for an easy basket. Then you are looking at 5-6 point swing. We lost a few close games where that would have mattered. Also, Lewis didn't take a three every game so in reality the additional makes would have made a difference in several games. Lewis shot a three in 22 games so it would have added 3 points to the team in each of those games since he needed 23 makes to get to his career year. How many of those misses if made could have given the team confidence? This can't be quantified. You can't dismiss a drop in FT% either because a drop means more misses and those misses may be at the frontend of a 1&1. Basketball is a game of runs and momentum and misses don't help you with either of those. So in my opinion a drop in shooting percent can have a big impact on the outcome of games.

 

[MadBird]

I understand looking at as oh it's just a made basket here and there but. How many of those misses lead to points on the other end? It's entirely possible that those misses were long rebounds and the opposing team was able to push the ball for an easy basket. Then you are looking at 5-6 point swing. We lost a few close games where that would have mattered. Also, Lewis didn't take a three every game so in reality the additional makes would have made a difference in several games. Lewis shot a three in 22 games so it would have added 3 points to the team in each of those games since he needed 23 makes to get to his career year. How many of those misses if made could have given the team confidence? This can't be quantified. You can't dismiss a drop in FT% either because a drop means more misses and those misses may be at the frontend of a 1&1. Basketball is a game of runs and momentum and misses don't help you with either of those. So in my opinion a drop in shooting percent can have a big impact on the outcome of games.

Neither the original post or my response were dealing with wins/losses or the impact of low 3 pt % on winning - did I miss something? Did I say something like that in my post? Didn't mean to if you interpreted that. Go back and read the original post again and my response.

The issue was why Lewis' percentage dropped off, and the discussion was it really didn't drop but it went up one year. I was pointing out that only one or two makes per game would've put his average up to that higher year.

No question the misses can add up.

 

[Aggie]

Maddie...the more I read your post, the more I enjoyed it, because...

It illustrates how doing the little things, the obscure things, the things that maybe aren't noticed...how far into the future it can pay off.

For example...get your hands up so you can deflect one extra pass a game. Being half a second quicker from the rebound to the outlet man for a quick bucket. Making one extra bunnie per game. Going a bit harder, really laying yourself out, for one extra defensive stop per half. Are your knees locked during any time in your defensive stance? Are you getting 100 extra free throws in per day...to make one more per game...when it counts? All of you peeps could add 100 more to this wishlist.

Ohhhh, here's one. INCREASING CONVERSION SUCCESS ON AN INBOUNDS from 5% to 10%...or heavens to betsy, 20%.

That's why guys like McCollum demand a certain way to play the game. Players AND coaches are involved in this formula. And I've dived deep into this McCollum cat the last few years. These minors turn into majors, whether from a winning perspective or a losing perspective.

It's a good lesson for life. Raise your flipping standard.

Mentioned before but one of the best people to work for me always said”if we can’t do the little things right how do we ever expect to do the big things right?”

 

[Redbird Alum 2004]

Neither the original post or my response were dealing with wins/losses or the impact of low 3 pt % on winning - did I miss something? Did I say something like that in my post? Didn't mean to if you interpreted that. Go back and read the original post again and my response.

The issue was why Lewis' percentage dropped off, and the discussion was it really didn't drop but it went up one year. I was pointing out that only one or two makes per game would've put his average up to that higher year.

No question the misses can add up.

Sorry I got hung up with this "how to lie with statistics" statement. I was pointing out that Lewis regressed compared to his first season with us. Now you can say that was the outlier but his previous two seasons combined shots taken don't even equal his lowest taken shots here. I pointed out in my response that although it may seem like a few shots to explain the regression it can have a huge impact on outcomes of games. Statistics are vital and if they weren't teams of all sports would not spend loads of money on analytics.

 

[MadBird]

Sorry I got hung up with this "how to lie with statistics" statement. I was pointing out that Lewis regressed compared to his first season with us. Now you can say that was the outlier but his previous two seasons combined shots taken don't even equal his lowest taken shots here. I pointed out in my response that although it may seem like a few shots to explain the regression it can have a huge impact on outcomes of games. Statistics are vital and if they weren't teams of all sports would not spend loads of money on analytics.

all good