Starters Lost - impact analysis for all FCS teams

[fourthandshort]

Found a really cool link on AGS showing how much each team lost from last years starters .. both player counts and some stats.

http://www.keepratings.net/

I already started crunching some stuff related to rankings at home front, and will post later tonight. WIU has most players coming back overall. Very helpful grid evaluating all FCS teams .. excel based so you can downlaod and do what you want with it.

Defensively, we rank higher. Ofesnsively, we rank low due to OL losses and then 3 of 4 RBs. It is really well done in terms of determining impact players .. not just lost starters but things like passing and rushing for skill positions, but defensively shows lost starters in games and tackles.

Pretty good stuff for us wonky types.

p.s. since AGS has pretty much stopped bashing us, I've been posting more and making friends over there. I think the whole APR 3 year run thing has quieted many of them. So I don't have to be a complete a-hole any more .. and they like me, they do, they really really like me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl_NpdAy3WY

 

[fourthandshort]

one thing I'm not yet sure is if it accounts for 2nd string stats coming back .. I think it does, which would be even better measure.

 

[ThisIsTheLineup]

p.s. since AGS has pretty much stopped bashing us, I've been posting more and making friends over there. I think the whole APR 3 year run thing has quieted many of them. So I don't have to be a complete a-hole any more .. and they like me, they do, they really really like me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl_NpdAy3WY

Give those guys a Casey's pizza and they love you forever.

 

[fourthandshort]

p.s. since AGS has pretty much stopped bashing us, I've been posting more and making friends over there. I think the whole APR 3 year run thing has quieted many of them. So I don't have to be a complete a-hole any more .. and they like me, they do, they really really like me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl_NpdAy3WY

Give those guys a Casey's pizza and they love you forever.

a little late with the good idea, you think ? Man, I took a beating over there. But all quiet lately.

 

[fourthandshort]

So here is recap of defense for MVFC showing tackles lost and starters lost. WIU lead both categories .. least tackles and starters lost. We finished 4th in starters lost and 5th in tackles lost .. obviously due to losing 3 starting LBers ... but I think we can feel good about our replacements. But look at our DL and DB numbers.

MVFC Team DEF DL LB DB Lost
Western Ill 7% 18% 3% 7% 1.0
Missouri St 27% 16% 45% 12% 1.7
North Dak St 26% 17% 51% 5% 2.9
Illinois State 32% 1% 80% 10% 3.1
Northern Iowa 36% 39% 33% 36% 3.4
Southern Ill 27% 75% 29% 1% 4.5
South Dak St 38% 54% 53% 13% 4.9
Indiana State 43% 42% 44% 42% 5.4
South Dakota 40% 48% 62% 17% 5.6
Youngstown St 59% 56% 38% 74% 7.1


NonConf Opp DEF DL LB DB Lost
Butler 45% 26% 52% 48% 3.7
Eastern Ill 41% 28% 51% 44% 4.3
No. Arizona 50% 72% 58% 29% 6.9

YSU lost a whole lot of starters and tackles .. they're going to really struggle on defense initially .. so I like that we have them on road in down year for them. MoST lost absolute beast MLB, but very good shape otherwise. UNI lost beast DE, but ok otherwise for their top rated defense .. same for NDSU and they have stud LB coming back for 6th year due to medical redshirt. Pretty sure NDSU, UNI, and ISU will lead the way on defense again this year .. we don't play UNI the year.

Nonconf .. Butler is weak PFL, so not concerned. EIU lost moderate number of starters and tackles, and their defense was ranked 50th last year. No. AZ lost a lot on defense .. and their defense was ranked 82nd in FCS last year.

p.s. so the way to read ours in we lost 32% of total tackles, just 1% of DL tackles, 80% of LB tackles, and 10% of DB tackles. And when you add up all the starters across all games, we lost 3.1 starters .. the 3 LBers and then 0.1 (i.e. 1 game) for spot starter who is now gone.

 

[fourthandshort]

Here its offensive recap for MVFC and are 3 nonconf opponents. Scary what SDSU has coming back on that offense .. that will be huge test for our Redbirds in week 10. We rank last due to losing 4 of 5 OL and 3 of 4 RBs. We shouldn't be concerned about RB number .. we should be very good there with 2 headed monster backs James Robinson and Markel Smith. OL remains to be seen .. but love our schedule.

Opponent RUSH PASS QB RB WR OL Lost
South Dak St 145 293 2% 10% 6% 20% 1.8
South Dakota 178 207 5% 38% 8% 24% 2.5
Youngstown St 243 180 0% 63% 19% 36% 2.9
Missouri State 129 193 100% 19% 33% 18% 3.0
Western Ill 142 269 2% 28% 64% 24% 3.3
Southern Ill 139 332 67% 10% 39% 20% 3.5
Northern Az 157 319 63% 55% 20% 35% 3.7
North Dak St 241 167 0% 38% 16% 60% 4.4
Northern Iowa 163 198 40% 76% 27% 40% 4.7
Eastern Ill 185 220 0% 77% 65% 24% 4.8
Butler 171 207 71% 20% 24% 80% 5.7
Illinois St 157 229 0% 74% 39% 90% 6.3
Indiana St 122 245 0% 50% 69% 44% 6.3

 

[fourthandshort]

And here is combined recap of lost starters .. off + def ... ISU is 8th in MVFC. Keep an eye NDSU and SDSU at top, then look for WIU to be little more consistent .. they faded late last year. Otherwise liking our chances to overcome both RB and LB losses pretty easily .. which as with everyone recognizes, it all comes back to getting our OL ready. Schedule falls in our favor early: Butler, EIU, MoST, InSU, NAU .. liking our chance against NAU on road.

Opponent off def tot
Western Ill 3.3 1.0 4.3
Missouri St 3.0 1.7 4.7
South Dak St 1.8 4.9 6.7
North Dak St 4.4 2.9 7.3
Southern Ill 3.5 4.5 8.0
South Dakota 2.5 5.6 8.1
North Iowa 4.7 3.4 8.1
Eastern Ill 4.8 4.3 9.1
Butler 5.7 3.7 9.4
Illinois St 6.3 3.1 9.4
Yngstwn St 2.9 7.1 10.0
Northern AZ 3.7 6.9 10.6
Indiana St 6.3 5.4 11.7

So with YSU (A), WIU (H), SDSU (A), and NDSU (H) in weeks 8, 9, 10, 11 ... this is looking like our toughest 4 games with YSU and WIU both being very winnable tough games.

 

[DannyCooksey]

hello

Can you guys give your thoughts on the starting O-Line for game1? I apologize but i can't recall what the line-up looked like in Spring.

QB-Kolbe
RB--Robinson/Smith
WR--Gibbs
WR--Schnell
WR--???
TE---Clements/Petkovich

LT--
LG--
C--someone mentioned Tyler Brown
RG---
RT---

also, does anyone know how Gillum is progressing? Is he the #3 TE right now?

 

[ISUBU]

Himmelman
Rients
Brown
Kanugh
ODay

That's my guess. Helt has been around awhile, but not sure of his injury status.

I didn't see the spring game, so this is just guesses from what I hear and see.

 

[crazzymark]

O'Day
Helt
Kanugh
Ridgeway/Brown
Hillman/Baker


so ISU lost a couple OL PLAYERS?


Why isn't Hatfield being redshirted??

 

[Total Red]

Himmelman
Rients
Brown
Kanugh
ODay

That's my guess. Helt has been around awhile, but not sure of his injury status.

I didn't see the spring game, so this is just guesses from what I hear and see.

Those were the starters for much of the spring but I'm not sure anyone is guaranteed to hold on to a spot. Hirsch is pushing Brown at C and Helt is a stealth candidate there as he can play all 5 positions. Cole Anderson and Trey Georgie might be ready even though they are RS-freshmen. I think it's still undecided.

Fowler should claim the other WR position.

Mark - why don't you think Hatfield is being redshirted? Because he's on the roster? Greyshirts don't get listed on the roster but redshirts do. Hatfield should redshirt. I'm also a fan Ridgeway but don't put him in the starting lineup yet. He needs to redshirt too. Cam Lee slipped through our fingers in just 4 years. Coach Spack won't let that happen again. O-Linemen are in it for 5 years (redshirting) and maybe longer (greyshirting). It will pay off.

 

[fourthandshort]

hello

Can you guys give your thoughts on the starting O-Line for game1? I apologize but i can't recall what the line-up looked like in Spring.

QB-Kolbe
RB--Robinson/Smith
WR--Gibbs
WR--Schnell
WR--???
TE---Clements/Petkovich

LT--
LG--
C--someone mentioned Tyler Brown
RG---
RT---

also, does anyone know how Gillum is progressing? Is he the #3 TE right now?

Danney .. At TE, Petkovich had a very good spring according to the reports. I've joked before that coaches seemingly just learned TE is still an eligible receiver position. But we've had zero luck with TEs the last 2 years .. both of them, at least one or both were always playing injured. Clements is more natural athlete of the 2 and might be the better blocker .. but if they are both healthy .. I like our chances to take more advantage of TE position in pass game. But we need to significantly improve the # of catches at TE position .. especially while we develop our OL and pass blocking. I believe we've averaged about 1 TE catch per game the last 2 years. I expect jump to at least 3 or 4 per game, especially assuming we initially focus our short-medium pass game. I also expect more 2 TE sets to give us more options while helping OL with blocking as they figure this out .. early schedule is favorable on this front alone.

Back to OL .. we had 3 homegrown OL guys in NFL camps from this past season. I'm a big fan of Coach Clark and believe it is only a matter of time for this current crop to come together.

 

[JHBird]

I hope Himmelman learns fast at left tackle. 6-10, 300 lbs and playing as a Redshirt Freshman. He has huge upside so I'm really pulling for him to come out of the gates fast. He'll probably be 330 by the time he's done here. Brock said during the recruiting event last February, that when the pro scouts come to campus they always do a double take when Himmelman walks past. I stood by him during the kids spring fest thing, and he still kinda looks like a basketball guy. Real athletic looking. I figure our season depends mostly on what happens with the O-Line.

 

[fourthandshort]

I hope Himmelman learns fast at left tackle. 6-10, 300 lbs and playing as a Redshirt Freshman. He has huge upside so I'm really pulling for him to come out of the gates fast. He'll probably be 330 by the time he's done here. Brock said during the recruiting event last February, that when the pro scouts come to campus they always do a double take when Himmelman walks past. I stood by him during the kids spring fest thing, and he still kinda looks like a basketball guy. Real athletic looking. I figure our season depends mostly on what happens with the O-Line.

at 6'10" I hope he is a really good athlete .. while the long arms can help offensive tackles in blocking; conversely, the height might make it difficult to keep low enough center of gravity to block shorter speed rushers. He's a RS FR .. so he's young with ton of upside, hope his feet are ready for LT position.

 

[RBFANTOO]

IMHO the Redbirds biggest loss was the loss of OC Beathard. I just don't feel as comfortable with OC Dickens. His play calling isn't tailored to the skills of his players. i.e Kolbe is not Roberson. The plays that are called need to be changed to reflect the strengths of Kolbe and to some extent the new OL.

 

[fourthandshort]

IMHO the Redbirds biggest loss was the loss of OC Beathard. I just don't feel as comfortable with OC Dickens. His play calling isn't tailored to the skills of his players. i.e Kolbe is not Roberson. The plays that are called need to be changed to reflect the strengths of Kolbe and to some extent the new OL.

agreed, but I'll give Dicken some credit .. the offense did seem to settle in and play more consistently the latter half. Spack needs to help Dicken mature into this role. Dicken need to learn to absorb Spack's ire and not take it out on his QB. Offense is different than defense in this regard. Beathard was not just smart, he was always under control emotionally. Dicken has mentality of a defensive coordinator .. doesn't work as well on offense.

 

[Redbirdfan21]

https://twitter.com/pg_reinhardt/status/892073497471705090

 

[Total Red]

Clearly there's a lot riding on the development of the O-Line including the reputations of Jake Kolbe and Billy Dicken.

If the O-Line doesn't protect then Kolbe's numbers, which were very good last season, will drop and CMark will be all over him. Also Dicken's playcalling will be questioned. If the O-Line doesn't look good then no one looks good.

I'm prepared to be patient. We will have an outstanding offensive line again at some point. We don't know who will be the next Cam Lee but there is strength in numbers and we've brought in a boatload of big young linemen. They'll sort themselves out over time and we'll play the best. The only variable is time. #MakeTheO-LineGreatAgain

 

[MadBird]

Clearly there's a lot riding on the development of the O-Line including the reputations of Jake Kolbe and Billy Dicken.

If the O-Line doesn't protect then Kolbe's numbers, which were very good last season, will drop and CMark will be all over him. Also Dicken's playcalling will be questioned. If the O-Line doesn't look good then no one looks good.

I'm prepared to be patient. We will have an outstanding offensive line again at some point. We don't know who will be the next Cam Lee but there is strength in numbers and we've brought in a boatload of big young linemen. They'll sort themselves out over time and we'll play the best. The only variable is time. #MakeTheO-LineGreatAgain

I was going to do some cut and paste, but there's no need - go back and look at our OL bios, there's some pretty accomplished guys there. Some state championships, all staters, etc. These guys were behind some tough guys last year, but now they have their chance and they should be rarin' to go. They've got size, have been mentored by some fine talent, have a proven position coach. Let 'er rip!!

 

[fourthandshort]

Roster Info: assuming positions below ??

LT Donavin O'Day 53 6-6 305 OL Jr. Fort Wayne, Ind. / Snider
LG Chad Kanugh 61 6-6 310 OL Jr. Franklin, Wis. / Franklin
C Tyler Brown 63 6-3 295 OL Jr. Peoria, Ill. / Richwoods
RG Jared Rients 75 6-5 315 OL So. Minonk, Ill. / Fieldcrest
RT Dean Helt 58 6-5 300 OL Sr. Dane, Wis. / Waunakee

Nice size and experience .. 3 JR, 1 SR, 1 SO. To be honest, Im glad to see they aren't rushing 6'10" RS FR LT Himmelman .. hard to believe he would be ready for MVFC as RS FR at 6'10". Give him another year or 2 of development.

Gonna beat this drum again ... note our schedule with Massey SOS (all colleges) in near descending order .. it is almost perfect transition for our new OL:

1. Butler # 396
2. Bye
3. at E Illinois # 191
4. at Missouri St # 185
5. Indiana St # 158
6. at Northern Arizona # 167
7. at S Illinois # 146
8. South Dakota # 132
9. at Youngstown St # 84
10. W Illinois # 133
11. at S Dakota St # 95
12. N Dakota St # 58

Only hate the bye in week 2 ... and yes ... wait for it ... Barry Alvarez is still a Wus.