Southeast Missouri St.

[Total Red]

Somebody fire up the Jim Carrey "there's a chance" meme. To be sure it will be a battle with feathers flying everywhere down at SEMO but the Redbirds can prevail.

I don't know how this talk got started that our players had their heads down with a feeling of hopelessness at Youngstown. BS-I'm not buying it. Our QB's were inexperienced but you can win a game without scoring a single point on offense. We could beat SEMO with a TD from the defense and a TD from special teams and tough out a 14-13 win. Stranger things have happened. But don't get me wrong. I expect the offense to score at SEMO. This will sound snarky but it's a serious comment. The passing game can't get any worse. We touched bottom and now it will get better. Jefferson and Baltz are All-State QB's. So they stumbled out of the gate. It would be ridiculous to define them by their first attempts.

I like Jefferson to start. He has two seasons of experience in practice and he's more physically ready. Jefferson and Robinson give us two really good athletes to carry the ball but at some point we'll need to prove that we aren't one-dimensional because that doesn't work. Jefferson needs to complete some passes and I believe he will. The problem last week wasn't the plays. It was running plays against a live opponent at game speed. Robinson knows how to run from the running back position and Jefferson is trained to throw from the QB position. Experience counts. A lot. Utilize what we have.

So again we have a chance using what we know to be the best parts of our offense. Some people don't believe that. That's fine. I don't think any of those of those people are players but if they are they don't need to board the bus. Leave 'em behind, we don't need them. Let's send players, fans and coaches down to SEMO who are going there to win.

 

[fourthandshort]

woops, sorry TR ... I should have hit refresh before starting my game thread !!! Here's my post.


Alright, I know were not feeling great about things with the QB situation, but yeesh ... we got ourselves a playoff game .. lets get a game thread going people !!!!

Anyways, I posted about this on the playoff thread .. SEMO went 9-3, though 8-3 against D-I teams. Statistically, they just don'rt impress they've barely won a lot of their games playing in the OVC. They did handle SIU in week 1, but we all know SIU got better as season progressed.

But here is summary of their team stats. The only thing that jumps off the page is at the very bottom, scores by quarter .. basically, they were outscored the first 3 quarters for the entire year, but made it all up in Q4 and even OT. They played a lot of close games and found ways to win, but otherwise are just an ok offense and defense. Now if they had done this in tougher conference, that would be really impressive, but they did it on OVC.

I still say this game is winnable and for that reason we should plan to burn Baltz's redshirt. He is true FR and will eventually get more comfortable in pocket at game speed. Game planning for both Baltz and Jefferson makes a lot of sense with Davis out and playoffs here. Just manage expections with our new reality at QB ... got to keep them thinking positively about their role.

Spack owes it to the team to play this game to win ... and it is winnable.

TEAM STATISTICS SEMO OPP
--------------------------------------------------------
SCORING....................... 352 300
Points Per Game............. 29.3 25.0
Points Off Turnovers........ 46 47
FIRST DOWNS................... 229 230
Rushing..................... 99 79
Passing..................... 103 121
Penalty..................... 27 30
RUSHING YARDAGE............... 1992 1656
Yards gained rushing........ 2286 1977
Yards lost rushing.......... 294 321
Rushing Attempts............ 458 433
Average Per Rush............ 4.3 3.8
Average Per Game............ 166.0 138.0
TDs Rushing................. 24 21
PASSING YARDAGE............... 2434 2885
Comp-Att-Int................ 192-346-12 229-424-14
Average Per Pass............ 7.0 6.8
Average Per Catch........... 12.7 12.6
Average Per Game............ 202.8 240.4
TDs Passing................. 18 14
TOTAL OFFENSE................. 4426 4541
Total Plays................. 804 857
Average Per Play............ 5.5 5.3
Average Per Game............ 368.8 378.4
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards......... 23-466 44-967
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards......... 24-292 13-151
INT RETURNS: #-Yards.......... 14-172 12-117
KICK RETURN AVERAGE........... 20.3 22.0
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE........... 12.2 11.6
INT RETURN AVERAGE............ 12.3 9.8
FUMBLES-LOST.................. 10-5 13-8
PENALTIES-Yards............... 91-840 100-864
Average Per Game............ 70.0 72.0
PUNTS-Yards................... 69-2752 65-2543
Average Per Punt............ 39.9 39.1
Net punt average............ 37.1 34.3
KICKOFFS-Yards................ 67-3694 56-3217
Average Per Kick............ 55.1 57.4
Net kick average............ 38.1 38.9
TIME OF POSSESSION/Game....... 29:27 30:33
3RD-DOWN Conversions.......... 55/164 63/181
3rd-Down Pct................ 34% 35%
4TH-DOWN Conversions.......... 5/12 10/27
4th-Down Pct................ 42% 37%
SACKS BY-Yards................ 24-139 26-164
MISC YARDS.................... 11 0
TOUCHDOWNS SCORED............. 45 38
FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS.......... 14-19 12-20
ON-SIDE KICKS................. 1-1 1-3
RED-ZONE SCORES............... (44-50) 88% (37-49) 76%
RED-ZONE TOUCHDOWNS........... (32-50) 64% (29-49) 59%
PAT-ATTEMPTS.................. (40-45) 89% (34-35) 97%
ATTENDANCE.................... 26990 104910
Games/Avg Per Game.......... 6/4498 6/17485
Neutral Site Games.......... 0/0

SCORE BY QUARTERS 1st 2nd 3rd 4th OT Total
-------------------- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Southeast Missouri.. 45 98 75 121 13 - 352
Opponents........... 79 81 79 54 7 - 300

 

[Virginia Redbird]

I still say this game is winnable and for that reason we should plan to burn Baltz's redshirt. He is true FR and will eventually get more comfortable in pocket at game speed. Game planning for both Baltz and Jefferson makes a lot of sense with Davis out and playoffs here. Just manage expections with our new reality at QB ... got to keep them thinking positively about their role.

Spack owes it to the team to play this game to win ... and it is winnable.

I was in the same camp with Baltz until last Saturday. If he had shown the least little bit of stable QB play I would have said burn the redshirt and play him. The reality is he was awful in every phase of QB play. That is not a hit on him at all, he is a true Freshman put into a most difficult position and was not ready for it. If Baltz is the future, and since he has jumped Jefferson in the depth chart we have to assume he is, then saving the redshirt year to help develop his talents and not lose that extra year is really important. Yes this is a playoff game and everyone wants to win it but at this point is there really that big of a difference between Baltz and Jefferson? It did not appear so. Start Jefferson and go with him. If Jefferson goes down with injury or the game situation dictates a change at QB then you have Baltz available but only if it is really necessary.
It is a tough decision Spack has to make and then he has to live with it whatever happens. I think long term for the program and Baltz himself it would be best to have him sit and save the redshirt. What is best for the team this week may be to play him. Which do you choose? The future of the program or the hear and now? That is why Spack gets paid the big bucks and whatever decision he makes he will be second guessed. Goes with Head Coaching territory.

I think the Birds can win this game but they need a few things to happen. The biggest is no turnovers. Interceptions have hurt badly. If the QBs cant get the offense going through the air at least do not turn the ball over! Second is easier...the Defense has to play lights out, get turnovers and a possible score or set the offense up with a short field. Special teams essentially the same. The big key to me is Offensive line. They need to control the line of scrimmage and get that 4 yards per play average. They will almost certainly be facing 8 & 9 men in the box. The OC needs to call plays that will help them deal with the mismatch in numbers. Use the passing game smartly and give your QBs the chance to get some safe passes completed early in the game for some confidence. At the same time it is going to be a heavy dose of running from the Redbird offense. I did not mention Robinson...don't really have to ... he will be ready to play.

 

[Redbird28]

So, who's going? My family and I will be there. Hope to see some Redbird Red down there with me to watch this win.

 

[TIMMY]

Check that. Rex Grossman started in a Super Bowl.

 

[Total Red]

No need for Mel to post the odds on this one. Timmy has spoken. :lol:

 

[cpacmel]

Illinois State -2.5

Over / under 37.5

 

[fourthandshort]

I still say this game is winnable and for that reason we should plan to burn Baltz's redshirt. He is true FR and will eventually get more comfortable in pocket at game speed. Game planning for both Baltz and Jefferson makes a lot of sense with Davis out and playoffs here. Just manage expections with our new reality at QB ... got to keep them thinking positively about their role.

Spack owes it to the team to play this game to win ... and it is winnable.

I was in the same camp with Baltz until last Saturday. If he had shown the least little bit of stable QB play I would have said burn the redshirt and play him. The reality is he was awful in every phase of QB play. That is not a hit on him at all, he is a true Freshman put into a most difficult position and was not ready for it. If Baltz is the future, and since he has jumped Jefferson in the depth chart we have to assume he is, then saving the redshirt year to help develop his talents and not lose that extra year is really important. Yes this is a playoff game and everyone wants to win it but at this point is there really that big of a difference between Baltz and Jefferson? It did not appear so. Start Jefferson and go with him. If Jefferson goes down with injury or the game situation dictates a change at QB then you have Baltz available but only if it is really necessary.
It is a tough decision Spack has to make and then he has to live with it whatever happens. I think long term for the program and Baltz himself it would be best to have him sit and save the redshirt. What is best for the team this week may be to play him. Which do you choose? The future of the program or the hear and now? That is why Spack gets paid the big bucks and whatever decision he makes he will be second guessed. Goes with Head Coaching territory.

I think the Birds can win this game but they need a few things to happen. The biggest is no turnovers. Interceptions have hurt badly. If the QBs cant get the offense going through the air at least do not turn the ball over! Second is easier...the Defense has to play lights out, get turnovers and a possible score or set the offense up with a short field. Special teams essentially the same. The big key to me is Offensive line. They need to control the line of scrimmage and get that 4 yards per play average. They will almost certainly be facing 8 & 9 men in the box. The OC needs to call plays that will help them deal with the mismatch in numbers. Use the passing game smartly and give your QBs the chance to get some safe passes completed early in the game for some confidence. At the same time it is going to be a heavy dose of running from the Redbird offense. I did not mention Robinson...don't really have to ... he will be ready to play.

I would agree if I thought Jefferson looked steady enough to do what Broadnax did against SDSU in 2017. As weak a thrower as Broadnax was, he looked really mature that game .. granted we caight tem completely by surprise, lost anyway, largely because of play calling down the stretch (Spack or Beathard ????) ... but anyways, Broadnax ws clearly not the future but he played ok for RS FR in his first start and not being able to trust him to throw the ball. I don't see that maturity in Jefferson like we saw in Broadnax in 2017 .. and Broadnaz was moved to Safety the next offseason after one solid game. This is why I'm thinking we need to assume Baltz will have to play .. that and I think we have a chance to win a low scoring game. SEMO is good but not stellar but they did manage to win many close games against average competition and did so in Q4 apparently .. though I stil have dig deeper to confirm the aggregate numbers weren't completely skewed by a couple games.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Spack's decision is going to be an interesting regardless. If Baltz starts and does not play well it is a real waste and could have impact for the next couple of years of a year development lost. If he plays well then maybe the Birds win a playoff game. Maybe even two but the third one would be in Fargo according to the bracket.
If Jefferson starts and plays well then maybe the Birds get a win and Baltz keeps his RS year. If Jefferson starts and plays badly they can always bring in Baltz. Their play on the field has not been anything that I would think would make one the much better choice over the other. It will likely come down to what the coach sees in practice. We will find out this weekend.
Jefferson will probably be a DB or WR next season anyway...if he returns to the program.

 

[Redbirds100]

Don't Forget about the scout team QB being available - Britton Morris as a backup to Jefferson and saving a JB redshirt................ And use as a change of pace............

 

[fourthandshort]

Spack's decision is going to be an interesting regardless. If Baltz starts and does not play well it is a real waste and could have impact for the next couple of years of a year development lost. If he plays well then maybe the Birds win a playoff game. Maybe even two but the third one would be in Fargo according to the bracket.
If Jefferson starts and plays well then maybe the Birds get a win and Baltz keeps his RS year. If Jefferson starts and plays badly they can always bring in Baltz. Their play on the field has not been anything that I would think would make one the much better choice over the other. It will likely come down to what the coach sees in practice. We will find out this weekend.
Jefferson will probably be a DB or WR next season anyway...if he returns to the program.

I'm not opposed to starting Jefferson and playing it by ear from there. But really believe we need to play to win .. if it looks like we need to spell Jefferson, and go to Baltz, for chance to win a low scoring game .. i say screw the redshirt .... he may or may not work out anyway. So both should be ready to go. The other aspect is keeping it positive ... if it is a "benching" of Jefferson, that puts more pressure on Baltz to perform. I'd rather both are thinking positively going into game about rotating .. this is better than thinking I better not screw up my chance. Its our new reality with Davis gone .. I'm just willing to embrace it and see if we can steal a game. Imagine what that would do for morale.

Confidence is a fickle thing and very contagious in both directions.

 

[StLRedbird]

I think ya get out your crystal ball and decide who gives you the best chance to be competitive next Sept 4th, hand him the game ball, and keep up the OTJ training. Gonna click sometime if the kid has talent. The good news is that whoever starts at QB can have high confidence that one of the best defenses in FCS is gonna keep him in the game. Just don't screw up.

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Spack's decision is going to be an interesting regardless. If Baltz starts and does not play well it is a real waste and could have impact for the next couple of years of a year development lost. If he plays well then maybe the Birds win a playoff game. Maybe even two but the third one would be in Fargo according to the bracket.
If Jefferson starts and plays well then maybe the Birds get a win and Baltz keeps his RS year. If Jefferson starts and plays badly they can always bring in Baltz. Their play on the field has not been anything that I would think would make one the much better choice over the other. It will likely come down to what the coach sees in practice. We will find out this weekend.
Jefferson will probably be a DB or WR next season anyway...if he returns to the program.

Hey VR I think ISU has to play their best cards today vs saving them for the future. What are the odds that Baltz is at ISU four years from now and is our best/starting qb and remains uninjured that season and ISU has a quality team that makes the playoffs.

1. Odds that he is at ISU four years from now if he redshirts....90%
2.Odds that he is our best starter four years from now...40% (and that may be a generous guess as he will have to beat out several players)
3. Odds that he remains unijured and is ready to play in the 4th season from now...85%
4. Odds that Isu has a quality/playoff team in year 4.....50%

Puts those all together and there is a 15% chance it comes back to bite us and that is if Baltz plays and does not perform well. I know these numbers are guesstimates but anyway you slice it a bird in hand is way better than two in the bush. Play him at QB is no brainer if he is the best option for ISU to win, IMO.

 

[fourthandshort]

Spack's decision is going to be an interesting regardless. If Baltz starts and does not play well it is a real waste and could have impact for the next couple of years of a year development lost. If he plays well then maybe the Birds win a playoff game. Maybe even two but the third one would be in Fargo according to the bracket.
If Jefferson starts and plays well then maybe the Birds get a win and Baltz keeps his RS year. If Jefferson starts and plays badly they can always bring in Baltz. Their play on the field has not been anything that I would think would make one the much better choice over the other. It will likely come down to what the coach sees in practice. We will find out this weekend.
Jefferson will probably be a DB or WR next season anyway...if he returns to the program.

Hey VR I think ISU has to play their best cards today vs saving them for the future. What are the odds that Baltz is at ISU four years from now and is our best/starting qb and remains uninjured that season and ISU has a quality team that makes the playoffs.

1. Odds that he is at ISU four years from now if he redshirts....90%
2.Odds that he is our best starter four years from now...40% (and that may be a generous guess as he will have to beat out several players)
3. Odds that he remains unijured and is ready to play in the 4th season from now...85%
4. Odds that Isu has a quality/playoff team in year 4.....50%

Puts those all together and there is a 15% chance it comes back to bite us and that is if Baltz plays and does not perform well. I know these numbers are guesstimates but anyway you slice it a bird in hand is way better than two in the bush. Play him at QB is no brainer if he is the best option for ISU to win, IMO.

I think there is 50/50 chance chirbfan is right ... so that reduces his 15% to 7.5% ... case closed, its mathematical certainty ... plan to play Baltz.

:ugeek:

 

[ISUBU]

If Baltz isn't WAY better in practice, he sits. Don't run him out there if he won't have some success to build on. He's going to sit next year. If all goes well in 2020, Davis will play and Baltz could redshirt then if not needed.

One of Baltz's interceptions was a good pass that hit our guy in the hands. He's got to make that catch. By tipping it, it cost a turnover and maybe caused Baltz to try to force the perfect pass the next time. I'm sitting him.

Nobody's going to worry about us throwing long until we show we can. I'm not sure we can do that right now. So work on all of the red zone plays. I think we'll win or lose this game on our ability to complete passes of 10 yards or less, when SEMO knows that's what we need. Red zone offense all the time.

 

[TIMMY]

I think ya get out your crystal ball and decide who gives you the best chance to be competitive next Sept 4th, hand him the game ball, and keep up the OTJ training. Gonna click sometime if the kid has talent. The good news is that whoever starts at QB can have high confidence that one of the best defenses in FCS is gonna keep him in the game. Just don't screw up.

Yeah this is a really tough one. Hopefully Davis is starting on Sept 4th. So do you want Baltz to be a redshirt Soph or a Junior Sept 2021? I would imagine it would have to do with your confidence in his development. Or are you going to recruit over the current QB's? I mean you're always trying to do that. Are you going to go hard after another transfer? Imagine where we'd be if Davis hadn't transferred in. :? And what are your realistic expectations for Saturday? These are the times that try men's souls. :think:

 

[SgtHulka]

Spack's decision is going to be an interesting regardless. If Baltz starts and does not play well it is a real waste and could have impact for the next couple of years of a year development lost. If he plays well then maybe the Birds win a playoff game. Maybe even two but the third one would be in Fargo according to the bracket.
If Jefferson starts and plays well then maybe the Birds get a win and Baltz keeps his RS year. If Jefferson starts and plays badly they can always bring in Baltz. Their play on the field has not been anything that I would think would make one the much better choice over the other. It will likely come down to what the coach sees in practice. We will find out this weekend.
Jefferson will probably be a DB or WR next season anyway...if he returns to the program.

Hey VR I think ISU has to play their best cards today vs saving them for the future. What are the odds that Baltz is at ISU four years from now and is our best/starting qb and remains uninjured that season and ISU has a quality team that makes the playoffs.

1. Odds that he is at ISU four years from now if he redshirts....90%
2.Odds that he is our best starter four years from now...40% (and that may be a generous guess as he will have to beat out several players)
3. Odds that he remains unijured and is ready to play in the 4th season from now...85%
4. Odds that Isu has a quality/playoff team in year 4.....50%

Puts those all together and there is a 15% chance it comes back to bite us and that is if Baltz plays and does not perform well. I know these numbers are guesstimates but anyway you slice it a bird in hand is way better than two in the bush. Play him at QB is no brainer if he is the best option for ISU to win, IMO.

I think there is 50/50 chance chirbfan is right ... so that reduces his 15% to 7.5% ... case closed, its mathematical certainty ... plan to play Baltz.

:ugeek:

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

I think there is 50/50 chance chirbfan is right ... so that reduces his 15% to 7.5% ... case closed, its mathematical certainty ... plan to play Baltz.

:ugeek:

About half the time I am happy with being 50% right. :?

 

[fourthandshort]

Hey VR I think ISU has to play their best cards today vs saving them for the future. What are the odds that Baltz is at ISU four years from now and is our best/starting qb and remains uninjured that season and ISU has a quality team that makes the playoffs.

1. Odds that he is at ISU four years from now if he redshirts....90%
2.Odds that he is our best starter four years from now...40% (and that may be a generous guess as he will have to beat out several players)
3. Odds that he remains unijured and is ready to play in the 4th season from now...85%
4. Odds that Isu has a quality/playoff team in year 4.....50%

Puts those all together and there is a 15% chance it comes back to bite us and that is if Baltz plays and does not perform well. I know these numbers are guesstimates but anyway you slice it a bird in hand is way better than two in the bush. Play him at QB is no brainer if he is the best option for ISU to win, IMO.

I think there is 50/50 chance chirbfan is right ... so that reduces his 15% to 7.5% ... case closed, its mathematical certainty ... plan to play Baltz.

:ugeek:

I didn't even have to use my hands for that calculation !

 

[redbirds2000]

Jefferson it is for Saturday.

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