MVC: school "strength" of OOC schedule [2021-2022], based on 2020-2021 NET ranking

[ISU86]

I went through each school's non-conference schedule and calculated an overall average rating (based on the opponent's NCAA Men's Basketball NET ranking at the end of the season). If a school is in a tournament, the opponents were weighted based on the round in which as school would play the opposition. For example, the Redbirds have a 100% chance to play the Billikens and a 50% chance to play either the Bulls or Lumberjacks (equals 100); ISU could end up with a better rating if they play Buffalo or a worse rating if they play Stephen F. Austin. Finally, as with the NET, non-Division I opponents are excluded.

NOTE: this could be better if there was any sort consensus as to which "preview" was considered most accurate for the coming season.


First, the overall rating per school (a median Division I rating would be 174).

1.) Northern Iowa: 108
2.) Southern Illinois: 167
3.) Drake: 168
4.) Loyola-Chicago: 173
5.) Missouri State: 185
6.) Illinois State: 192
7.) Bradley: 192
8.) Indiana State: 196
9.) Valparaiso: 198
10.) Evansville: 205


Quick glimpse for each school (best and worse (with last's season NET rating) and any non-DI opposition).

Bradley
best: vs Colorado State [63] {could face vs Colorado [9], vs Creighton [27]}
worst: Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [320] (could face vs North Carolina Central [328]}
non-DI: Missouri S&T

Drake
best: vs Clemson [45] {could face vs Alabama [8], vs Kansas [17]}
worst: Chicago State [346]
non-DI: Coe, Mount Mary

Evansville
best: at Southern Methodist [59]
worst: Tennessee-Martin [338]
non-DI: DePauw

Illinois State
best: at Wisconsin [23]
worst: at Chicago State [346]
non-DI: Purdue Northwest, Quincy

Indiana State
best: at Purdue [29]
worst: at Northern Illinois [339]
non-DI: Hanover, Oakland City

Loyola-Chicago
best: vs Michigan State [76] {could face vs Baylor [2], vs Connecticut [33], vs Syracuse [37], vs Virginia Commonwealth [42], vs Auburn [66]}
worst: Chicago State [346]
non-DI: Roosevelt

Missouri State
best: Brigham Young [16]
worst: Alabama State [343]
non-DI: Evangel

Northern Iowa
best: at Arkansas [14]
worst: Jackson State [252]
non-DI: Dubuque, Wartburg

Southern Illinois
best: vs Colorado [9]
worst: Alcorn State [329]
non-DI: Maryville, Missouri Baptist

Valparaiso
best: at Stanford [56]
worst: Eastern Michigan [317]
non-DI: East-West, Trinity Christian


Finally, list of all opponents in NET rating order (undetermined tournament opposition listed at bottom for each school):

Northern Iowa [108]
at Arkansas [14]
at St. Bonaventure [31]
Richmond [68]
vs Liberty [85]
at Marshall [89]
Vermont [116]
Nicholls State [185]
Jackson State [252]
Dubuque [n/a]
Wartburg [n/a]
vs Stanford [56]/Wyoming [163]
vs Brigham Young [16]/Vanderbilt [110]/Hawai'i [191]/South Florida [200]

Southern Illinois [167]
vs Colorado [9]
Southern Mississippi [59]
at San Francisco [104]
at Tulsa [127]
at Arkansas-Little Rock [221]
Austin Peay State [248]
Southeast Missouri State [276]
Alcorn State [329]
Maryville [n/a]
Missouri Baptist [n/a]
vs Duquense [139]/Northeastern [146]
vs Creighton [27]/Colorado State [63]/Bradley [173]/Brown [348]

Drake [168]
vs Clemson [45]
vs Saint Louis [52]
Richmond [68]
vs Belmont [92]
South Dakota [166]
Jackson State [252]
at Nebraska-Omaha [322]
Chicago State [346]
St. Thomas [348]
Coe [n/a]
Mount Mary [n/a]
vs Alabama [8]/Iona [141]
vs Kansas [17]/North Texas [55]/Dayton [90]/Miami, Florida [153]

Loyola-Chicago [173]
vs Michigan State [76]
at Davidson [77]
at Vanderbilt [110]
at DePaul [167]
Norfolk State [183]
Coppin State [268]
Florida Gulf Coast [286]
Illinois-Chicago [292]
Chicago State [346]
Roosevelt [n/a]
vs Connecticut [33]/Auburn [66]
vs Baylor [2]/Syracuse [37]/Virginia Commonwealth [42]/Arizona State [99]

Missouri State [185]
Brigham Young [16]
at St. Mary's [60]
South Dakota State [115]
Oral Roberts [125]
at Sam Houston State [169]
at Arkansas-Little Rock [221]
vs Long Beach State [263]
Southeast Missouri State [276]
Central Arkansas [318]
Alabama State [343]
Evangel [n/a]
vs East Tennessee State [128]/Murray State [198]
vs Wright State [75]/Kent State [118]/James Madison [140]/George Washington [266]

Illinois State [192]
at Wisconsin [23]
vs Saint Louis [52]
Texas-San Antonio [161]
Ball State [179]
Murray State [198]
Bucknell [225]
North Carolina-Wilmington [246]
Jackson State [252]
at Eastern Michigan [317]
at Chicago State [346]
Purdue Northwest [n/a]
Quincy [n/a]
vs Buffalo [86]/Stephen F. Austin [142]

Bradley [192]
vs Colorado State [63]
at Toledo [79]
at South Dakota State [115]
vs Sam Houston State [169]
Bellarmine [172]
Saint Joseph's [222]
Maine [305]
Howard [312]
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville [320]
Missouri S&T [n/a]
vs Creighton [27]/Brown [348]
at Texas-El Paso [143]/vs North Carolina Central [328]
vs Colorado [9]/Duquense [139]/Northeastern [146]/Southern Illinois [207]

Indiana State [196]
at Purdue [29]
vs Old Dominion [132]
at North Dakota State [157]
at Ball State [179]
Miami, Ohio [182]
Coppin State [268]
at Wisconsin-Green Bay [275]
Alabama A&M [325]
at Northern Illinois [339]
Hanover [n/a]
Oakland City [n/a]
vs Oklahoma [36]/East Carolina [175]
vs Utah State [47]/Davidson [77]/New Mexico State [164]/Penn [348]

Valparaiso [198]
at Stanford [56]
Toledo [79]
vs Coastal Carolina [159]
Prairie View A&M [197]
North Carolina-Charlotte [231]
William & Mary [278]
Illinois-Chicago [292]
at Western Michigan [301]
Eastern Michigan [317]
East-West [n/a]
Trinity Christian [n/a]
vs Abliene Christian [74]/Jacksonville State [156]
vs Toledo [79]/Drexel [147]/Tulane [158]/North Carolina-Charlotte [231]

Evansville [205]
at Southern Methodist [59]
at Belmont [92]
Central Florida [103]
at Cincinnati [121]
vs Rice [181]
Indiana/Purdue-Indianapolis [271]
at Southeast Missouri State [276]
at Eastern Illinois [304]
Tennessee Tech [316]
Tennessee-Martin [328]
DePauw [n/a]
vs Vermont [116]/Oakland [255]
vs Akron [114]/Appalachian State [215]/Delaware [220]/Fordham [327]

 

[SoCalRedbird]

Terrific info.

 

[jwa123]

Terrific info.

Agree

 

[ISU86]

Some interesting tidbits

All conference schools are playing at least non-Division I game this year, and over half are playing multiples. Will (for whatever reason) this be the new trend?

The average number of true road games for each school is three (Drake only has one (but two additional neutral site single as well as an in-season tournament), Evansville and Indiana State have five).

Other than Northern Iowa, no one has a strong non-con. This may somewhat have to do with lack of opportunities (power-five increasing number of conference games). The median opponent rank is 174, and more conference teams than not average below that number. Evansville and Missouri State do not have a single power five school on their schedule, and Bradley may not face one as well (depending on tournament results).

Truth is (for better or worse) our non-con schedule is basically league average.

We did win the award for weakest non-conference road opponent (Chicago State), eeking out Indiana State and their visit to Northern Illinois.