@Murray St - Tuesday 1/30/2024 - 7 pm - ESPN+

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ISUalum19

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I seem to pick wrong every game so lets go for broke here.

Murray 66
Birds 54 (shooting 2/17 from three)
 
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Redbird82

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I am stating the obvious but it is as simple as do we shoot the ball like even an average team? Unless we are playing Kentucky, Drake,etc we will play effective defense. we rebound well, we haven’t turned the ball over much the last few games. None of it matters if you can’t make a damn shot.
 
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DaveBird10

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Redbird82 said:
I am stating the obvious but it is as simple as do we shoot the ball like even an average team? Unless we are playing Kentucky, Drake,etc we will play effective defense. we rebound well, we haven’t turned the ball over much the last few games. None of it matters if you can’t make a damn shot.
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This right here. If we shoot the 3 ball well, we will be in the game and have a chance to win if we don't well we all have watched that game before.
We ae so easy to defend at this point, that I am not confident in our offense. If Murray watched the 2nd half of the Belmont and Evansville game you zone us and pack it in to make if hard for Foster and Walker and to get paint touches and clean looks at the basket. You then force us to beat you and we haven't shown we can do that consistently.
 
Birgs

Birgs

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DaveBird10 said:
This right here. If we shoot the 3 ball well, we will be in the game and have a chance to win if we don't well we all have watched that game before.
We ae so easy to defend at this point, that I am not confident in our offense. If Murray watched the 2nd half of the Belmont and Evansville game you zone us and pack it in to make if hard for Foster and Walker and to get paint touches and clean looks at the basket. You then force us to beat you and we haven't shown we can do that consistently.
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Thoroughly agree. As obvious as it is, every team can easily sag off perimeter D and crush down on our two current bright spots (Foster/Chase). Particularly with Kinziger showing nice cut/dribble/shot stuff (and he can be considered our 3rd bright spot with the two aforementioned) gotta run more motion/flex stuff.

"Floppy" Cuts
 
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DaveBird10

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Birgs said:
Thoroughly agree. As obvious as it is, every team can easily sag off perimeter D and crush down on our two current bright spots (Foster/Chase). Particularly with Kinziger showing nice cut/dribble/shot stuff (and he can be considered our 3rd bright spot with the two aforementioned) gotta run more motion/flex stuff.

"Floppy" Cuts
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Some of that imo is why I like Walker and Foster in the game together especially if teams are going to zone us. Walker imo is our best passing big so him in the middle of the lane at the free throw line is why we were able to beat the zone on Saturday. He was able to get some fouls and then pass out to Johnny for a few shots.
 
Birgs

Birgs

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DaveBird10 said:
Some of that imo is why I like Walker and Foster in the game together especially if teams are going to zone us. Walker imo is our best passing big so him in the middle of the lane at the free throw line is why we were able to beat the zone on Saturday. He was able to get some fouls and then pass out to Johnny for a few shots.
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Obviously, the foul trouble concerns; but....hell yeah!
 
ISU86

ISU86

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DaveBird10 said:
Some of that imo is why I like Walker and Foster in the game together especially if teams are going to zone us. Walker imo is our best passing big so him in the middle of the lane at the free throw line is why we were able to beat the zone on Saturday. He was able to get some fouls and then pass out to Johnny for a few shots.
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Walker is as capable at getting as giving fouls.

At this point, we all know the drill. Need to MAKE buckets. Start Burford, Davis, Foster, Kinziger, Walker. At least the volume of three-point attempts should go down, and since we tend to clang an inordinate amount of them, addition by subtraction.

In conference we are shooting 26% outside the arc and 52% inside. We would need to shoot 35% from three to be as productive point-wise outside as in. Davis and Lewis are only 'birds with significant playing time that are above 35% (again, conference only).

Redbirds 64
Racers 72
 
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Adunk33

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The Redbirds are 345 of 351 in 3pt shooting %. Unless that improves, it's going to be tough to win games. Because as I learned in grad school, 3 is more than 2.

There's been talk on this board for years about standing around and just chucking up threes. I do have some glimmer of hope in this team because I don't feel that's their issue. I think for the most part, they are getting good looks, they just aren't dropping. The team has the yips and lacks confidence. I feel like it isn't possible to be this bad of a 3pt shooting team especially with what we saw from Mal, DB, and Luke last year, all 32-38%, with how Banks/JK started the year and Davis now coming on. They'll figure it out. Or maybe they won't. Who knows?
 
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MadBird

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Very hard to figger - at least for me, who's best ball was played at the Y and city league and intramurals - just what the problem is with the long-range shooting. Not that the close range scoring is stellar, seems like we see a fair number of missed bunnies and put backs and so forth. Anyway, Pedon seems to be willing to let them "shoot their way out of it", and who knows what goes on in practice and individual time with extra shooting, changing form, using the legs better, better shot selection, etc. etc. One does sort of believe in the "its gotta get better" theory.

But, just a little "come in off the ledge", from the "how to lie with statistics" department. Birds have made 123 of 459 from three. If we shot at the "median" percentage (34%), the team in spot 175 in the NCAA DI stats, we'd have made 156 threes. In 21 games. 33 more shots over 21 games, so just a little over 1 more made three a game. The #50 team in NCAA DI stats is making 36.84% of its threes. If the Birds had hit that %, they'd have made 169 threes, or 46 more threes over 21 games. 2 per game basically. I hope my stats are in the park and won't let my old sociology profs down!

So as bad as its been, as awful as they've looked, they really don't need that much improvement to get the shooting stats up to a respectable level. Come on guys, you can do it!!
 
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Redbird222

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MadBird said:
Very hard to figger - at least for me, who's best ball was played at the Y and city league and intramurals - just what the problem is with the long-range shooting. Not that the close range scoring is stellar, seems like we see a fair number of missed bunnies and put backs and so forth. Anyway, Pedon seems to be willing to let them "shoot their way out of it", and who knows what goes on in practice and individual time with extra shooting, changing form, using the legs better, better shot selection, etc. etc. One does sort of believe in the "its gotta get better" theory.

But, just a little "come in off the ledge", from the "how to lie with statistics" department. Birds have made 123 of 459 from three. If we shot at the "median" percentage (34%), the team in spot 175 in the NCAA DI stats, we'd have made 156 threes. In 21 games. 33 more shots over 21 games, so just a little over 1 more made three a game. The #50 team in NCAA DI stats is making 36.84% of its threes. If the Birds had hit that %, they'd have made 169 threes, or 46 more threes over 21 games. 2 per game basically. I hope my stats are in the park and won't let my old sociology profs down!

So as bad as its been, as awful as they've looked, they really don't need that much improvement to get the shooting stats up to a respectable level. Come on guys, you can do it!!
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1.5 shots × 3 points is 4.5 points per game. That's a lot over 21 games.

The real issue there have been 3 to 4 horrible shooting games thst have led to losses. Norfolk, Valpo, SIU, and Evansville off the top of my head.

The other issue is that defenses are collapsing and making it more difficult to score. You won't see a game like North Dakota St where we predominantly scored from the paint.
 
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