Iowa 2024 - Way too early Pre-game Ramblings

[fourthandshort]

Way too early, but oh well .. we open against Iowa (10-2 reg season,10-4 overall), so I decided to start scouting their roster coming out of 2023 into 2024. Pretty well known that their offense was weak and their defense was carrying them. Per Massey, which is adjusted for SOS, their offense ranked 101st and their defense ranked 5th, out of 133 teams, playing the 42nd ranked SOS. Statistically, their total offense ranked dead last.

Offensively, they have/had no pass game, and a very limited run game ... though that is at least partly because everyone would have stacked the box against them. Their QB is back (woeful), and so are their RBs .. so they may have a decent run game, if they ever learned to throw it. They had no receiver over 300 yards, and lost their top 2 receivers a TE and WR. They fired ferentz' son OC and replaced him with Tim Lester, who hasn't exactly setting the coaching ranks on fire .. .500 record at WMU for 6 seasons as HC.

Defensively, they were very very good. Before their Big 10 championship 26-0 loss to Michigan and then then their 35-0 Citrus Bowl loss to Tennessee, they were 10-2 and gave up just 146 points in 12 games .. or 12 pts per game during regular season .. granted, weak side of Big 10.

Scary right ??? Except for this, they are losing their top 5 tacklers, followed by their 9th (stud DE/Edge), plus a 3rd LBer. So all told, they lose their top 3 LBers, their top 2 DL/DE, and their top 2 DBs. Plus they lose their stud Punter (Big 10 punter of year). They do return a stud JR DB DeJean, who was also their return specialist - he won both the Big 10 DB of year and return specialist of year .. he will likely be scary good on returns against us.

Now granted, if your offense sucks, your defense will be back on the field a whole lot more often, so tackles will be plentiful. Yet, they still managed to be ranked #5 by Massey, making it even more impressive.

Point being, this is setting up to look like a trap game for Iowa, though Ferentz will know Spack a bit from our last game, and his Purdue DC days. but the players, may be hard to be convinced to get up for this game .. 10-2 FBS Big 10 vs 6-5 FCS ... yawner preseason exhibition game for them.

#		GP	SOLO	ASST	TOT	TFL-YDS	SACKS-YDS	INT	BU	QBH	FR	FF	SAF
34 - SR LB	Jay Higgins	14	79	92	171	5 - 13	2 - 9	1	4	4	2	1	0
10 - SR LB	Nick Jackson	14	51	59	110	8 - 26	4 - 16	0	4	7	0	2	0
29 - SR DB	Sebastian Castro	14	47	20	67	8 - 16	1 - 2	3	8	1	0	1	0
30 - SR DB	Quinn Schulte	14	40	25	65	2.5 - 9	0 - 0	1	4	0	0	0	0
85 - SR DL	Logan Lee	14	19	36	55	5.5 - 31	3 - 26	0	3	1	0	0	0
45 - JR DL	Deontae Craig	14	18	36	54	5 - 25	3 - 22	0	1	7	0	0	0
49 - JR DL	Ethan Hurkett	13	26	26	52	6 - 8	0 - 0	1	0	3	1	0	0
94 - JR DL	Yahya Black	14	22	29	51	5 - 27	3.5 - 21	0	5	2	0	1	0
13 - SR DE	Joe Evans	14	28	18	46	13.5 - 52	9.5 - 39	0	4	10	0	1	0
27 - JR DB	Jermari Harris	12	31	11	42	1 - 1	0 - 0	1	8	0	0	0	0
1 - SO DB	Xavier Nwankpa	14	27	15	42	2 - 1	1 - 0	1	2	2	0	0	0
3 - JR DB	Cooper DeJean	10	26	15	41	2 - 5	0 - 0	2	5	0	0	0	0
95 - SO DL	Aaron Graves	14	14	23	37	4.5 - 26	2.5 - 13	0	1	0	0	1	0
8 - RS FR DB	Deshaun Lee	11	19	13	32	0 - 0	0 - 0	0	3	0	0	0	0
37 - SR LB	Kyler Fisher	14	18	8	26	3.5 - 7	1 - 2	0	1	1	0	1	0

 

[StLRedbird]

Good stuff, fourth. This sounds pretty similar to the game in 2015, where they absolutely stuffed our running game. Actually, we didn't get much going on thru the air either until the first teams were off the field and Kolbe led us on a couple TD drives.
Link to Game Summary, ISU@Iowa 9-5-15
Link to Game Replay

It brought a smile to my face to see the box score listed the temperature at 84 degrees. Celsius, maybe.

I think our defense is gonna get a stop or two against them this time. We beat NU 9-7, right? A man can dream.

 

[BJJ guy]

DeJean has declared for the draft so that is one less worry;-) They just added Kadyn Proctor which is huge. He's a mountain of a man.

 

[fourthandshort]

btw .. we're only missing following 4 from our defense. Returning the top 7 tacklers, so far. Lose just 2 starters and just 3 of top 22 tackle leaders. The 4th being Cross who ranked 23rd in tackles and just entered portal.

• starter DB Bowens transferred to Gardner Webb for some odd reason
• starter DL Dinga graduated
• backup LB Belizzi graduated early and is done with football - thinking he got a lot of these on special teams maybe.
• backup DL Cross just entered portal

So were losing just 97 tackles out of 755, so we're retaining 87% of our total tackles ... that's comparable to SDSU this last season. As of right now, our only portal transfer is WIU DE, who Spack said has a high motor that will fill the gap left by Dinga.

Iowa is retaining just 39%, now excluding the JR DB who declared for NFL. Most of that returning will be on the DL, though they lost their 2 best DL/DE. So their LB and DB groups got hit very hard. Plus their special teams with all Big 10 Punter and all Big 10 Punt Return specialist (21 returns for 245 yards), both of which certainly helped improve field position offensively and defensively.

 

[StLRedbird]

btw .. we're only missing following 4 from our defense. Returning the top 7 tacklers, so far. Lose just 2 starters and just 3 of top 22 tackle leaders. The 4th being Cross who ranked 23rd in tackles and just entered portal.

• starter DB Bowens transferred to Gardner Webb for some odd reason
• starter DL Dinga graduated
• backup LB Belizzi graduated early and is done with football - thinking he got a lot of these on special teams maybe.
• backup DL Cross just entered portal

So were losing just 97 tackles out of 755, so we're retaining 87% of our total tackles ... that's comparable to SDSU this last season. As of right now, our only portal transfer is WIU DE, who Spack said has a high motor that will fill the gap left by Dinga.

Iowa is retaining just 39%, now excluding the JR DB who declared for NFL. Most of that returning will be on the DL, though they lost their 2 best DL/DE. So their LB and DB groups got hit very hard. Plus their special teams with all Big 10 Punter and all Big 10 Punt Return specialist (21 returns for 245 yards), both of which certainly helped improve field position offensively and defensively.

View attachment 1369

So both offenses will likely struggle, ours more than there's. Our OL has had turnover and was inconsistent last year, struggling against better opponents. New QB. Gonna be important to play mistake-free football and hope for a couple from them.

I'm really looking forward to this one. We day tripped the game in '15 and had high hopes dashed by a pretty good football team that year. This year we have an airbnb walking distance from Kinnick. I hope you're right and they're looking past us. Go Birds!

 

[fourthandshort]

So both offenses will likely struggle, ours more than there's. Our OL has had turnover and was inconsistent last year, struggling against better opponents. New QB. Gonna be important to play mistake-free football and hope for a couple from them.

I'm really looking forward to this one. We day tripped the game in '15 and had high hopes dashed by a pretty good football team that year. This year we have an airbnb walking distance from Kinnick. I hope you're right and they're looking past us. Go Birds!

Yes, I don't doubt Iowa knows how to rebuild/reload a defense .. but theyre losing a lot, so it will have some impact, especially early in season.

One downside with their new OC, we will have no idea what to prepare for.- .. so even if they are still weak on offense, it will be brand new. Noted they did lose 3 starting OL of their 5.

 

[Birgs]

Yes, I don't doubt Iowa knows how to rebuild/reload a defense .. but theyre losing a lot, so it will have some impact, especially early in season.

One downside with their new OC, we will have no idea what to prepare for.- .. so even if they are still weak on offense, it will be brand new. Noted they did lose 3 starting OL of their 5.

Just glancing, and granted these are raw stats but looks maybe/kinda slightly more run-emphasized?
Lester Historical "O"

 

[TIMMY]

He's run the West Coast in the past. A lot of 11 personnel. Horizontal passing game. Balanced between run and pass. Mostly out of the gun. Sound familiar?

 

[Phantom]

Hopefully it's not another 11AM kickoff at 132 degrees and 20/10 UV index like the 2015 game was.

 

[TIMMY]

He's run the West Coast in the past. A lot of 11 personnel. Horizontal passing game. Balanced between run and pass. Mostly out of the gun. Sound familiar?

I saw him at a Glazier Clinic a few years ago so I looked at my notes. He also spent time on RPO's. Also with Lachey and MacNamara back I would expect play-action to get the ball to Lachey.

 

[fourthandshort]

I saw him at a Glazier Clinic a few years ago so I looked at my notes. He also spent time on RPO's. Also with Lachey and MacNamara back I would expect play-action to get the ball to Lachey.

You need to dial up Spack and Neikamp !!!

Oh wait, they follow our forum religiously for all our advice .. no need !!

 

[TIMMY]

I'll see Niekamp on Feb.9th in Oak Brook where he'll fill my brain with some red zone defense out of the 3-4. I'm giddy with excitement. And I know you're happy for me!

 

[Birgs]

He's run the West Coast in the past. A lot of 11 personnel. Horizontal passing game. Balanced between run and pass. Mostly out of the gun. Sound familiar?

Anecdotal Lester Scout