FCS Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[TreRoberson4Heisman]

Starting a thread for some scoreboard watching of teams Redbird fans should be monitoring...

Craig Haley (STATS)
http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20171107112333915607304

PROJECTED BIDS BY CONFERENCE
* - Automatic qualifier
Big Sky (3): Northern Arizona (6-3); *Southern Utah (7-2); Weber State (7-2)
Big South (2): *Kennesaw State (8-1); Monmouth (8-1)
CAA (4): Delaware (6-3); Elon (8-1); *James Madison (9-0); Stony Brook (7-2)
Missouri Valley (5): *North Dakota State (8-1); Northern Iowa (5-4); South Dakota (7-2); South Dakota State (7-2); Western Illinois (6-3)
Northeast (1): *Duquesne (7-2)
Ohio Valley (1): *Jacksonville State (8-1)
Patriot (1): *Colgate (5-4)
Pioneer (1): *San Diego (7-2)
Southern (4): Furman (6-3); Samford (6-3); Western Carolina (7-3); *Wofford (8-1)
Southland (2): *Central Arkansas (8-1); Sam Houston State (8-1)

Moved In: Delaware (6-3); Northern Iowa (5-4); Samford (6-3)
Dropped Out: Eastern Washington; Illinois State; Nicholls
Bubble Watch: Illinois State (6-3); Montana (6-3); McNeese (7-2); New Hampshire (6-3); Nicholls (7-2)

 

[crazzymark]

AS STATED BEFORE...7-4 WONT DO IT.....said that a few weeks back...ISU has to win out!!

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

AS STATED BEFORE...7-4 WONT DO IT.....said that at the beginning of the season...ISU has to win out!!

You may be right. Would not like to be tied at 7-4 with NAU and also have ISU as the 5th or 6th best team in the MVFC when the at large bids are handed out. That could happen and NAU could take our invite away.

 

[RollBirds2002]

AS STATED BEFORE...7-4 WONT DO IT.....said that at the beginning of the season...ISU has to win out!!

You may be right. Would not like to be tied at 7-4 with NAU and also have ISU as the 5th or 6th best team in the MVFC when the at large bids are handed out. That could happen and NAU could take our invite away.

I believe these at large bids are also considering the fact that ISU has to face the 2 best teams in the MVFC and is probably assuming that they're both losses. They're probably assuming that 5-4 UNI wins out with their two very winnable games left because if they were going on current standings they'd clearly put in a 6-3 ISU over a 5-4 UNI. 7-4 should still be good enough for an ISU at large bid if they win one especially considering who they'd have to beat.

 

[fourthandshort]

AS STATED BEFORE...7-4 WONT DO IT.....said that at the beginning of the season...ISU has to win out!!

You may be right. Would not like to be tied at 7-4 with NAU and also have ISU as the 5th or 6th best team in the MVFC when the at large bids are handed out. That could happen and NAU could take our invite away.

I believe these at large bids are also considering the fact that ISU has to face the 2 best teams in the MVFC and is probably assuming that they're both losses. They're probably assuming that 5-4 UNI wins out with their two very winnable games left because if they were going on current standings they'd clearly put in a 6-3 ISU over a 5-4 UNI. 7-4 should still be good enough for an ISU at large bid if they win one especially considering who they'd have to beat.

correct .. one more high quality win, making us 7-4 in best conference should do it. Only question is what happens if UNI also finishes 7-4 with 2 easier games left .. so root for UNI to lose at MoST this weekend .. just to be sure.

Or let's just win both and be in line for top 8 seed ... we will have beaten USD by 16, YSU by 35 (when no one else beat them by more than 5), SDSU and NDSU ... I realize we have 1 very weak loss (SIU) and 2 somewhat weak losses to playoff teams (NAU, WIU) . But 8-3 with 4 very strong wins and 2 of 3 losses to playoff teams ... might be enough for 8th seed coming out of MVFC.

 

[chuckie1980]

I will still be surprised if the MoValley gets more than 4 in the playoffs.
Southland Conference is expecting 4 in the playoffs, too.

 

[fourthandshort]

slow night in the fourth household .. I was look at some game stats for couple big games. So with all the talk how YSU was playing shorthanded against us, I decided to look up starters for 3 games leading up to ours:

- YSUs 3 pt loss at USD
- YSUs 3 pt OT loss to NDSU
- YSU's 5 pt loss at UNI
- YSU's 35 point loss to us

Looked at all 22 starters on box score for each . the only position that had any change was RG on offense .. every other position had same starter all 4 games .. this includes QB position.

Maybe they were getting banged up on offense, but so were we with WR Gibbs and couple OL playing hurt.

YSU beat SDSU 19 to 7 week rior to USD game .. and again all the same starters except RG. Except they also had original QB Wells for SDSU game.

Then a week after our 35-0 win at YSU, the same YSU team went to InSU and beat them 66-24.

Point being, I and some others were too quick to discount this YSU blow out .. that was quite a performance for ISUr compared to every other game YSU played this year.

 

[StLRedbird]

Looked at all 22 starters on box score for each . the only position that had any change was RG on offense .. every other position had same starter all 4 games .. this includes QB position.

4th, we are not worthy. :bow-yellow: :bow-yellow: :bow-yellow:

 

[fourthandshort]

Looked at all 22 starters on box score for each . the only position that had any change was RG on offense .. every other position had same starter all 4 games .. this includes QB position.

4th, we are not worthy. :bow-yellow: :bow-yellow: :bow-yellow:

nor do you have as much free time on a friday evening .. I need to get a life .. once football season is over.

 

[TreRoberson4Heisman]

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20171114122809832674804

PROJECTED BIDS BY CONFERENCE
* - Automatic qualifier
Big Sky (3): Northern Arizona (7-3); *Southern Utah (8-2); Weber State (8-2)
Big South (2): *Kennesaw State (9-1); Monmouth (9-1)
CAA (4): Delaware (7-3); Elon (8-2); *James Madison (10-0); Stony Brook (8-2)
Missouri Valley (5): *North Dakota State (9-1); Northern Iowa (6-4); South Dakota (7-3); South Dakota State (8-2); Western Illinois (7-3)
Northeast (1): *Central Connecticut State (7-3)
Ohio Valley (1): *Jacksonville State (9-1)
Patriot (1): *Lehigh (4-6)
Pioneer (1): *San Diego (8-2)
Southern (3): Furman (7-3); Samford (7-3); *Wofford (9-1)
Southland (3): *Central Arkansas (9-1); Nicholls (8-2); Sam Houston State (9-1)
Moved In: Central Connecticut State, Lehigh, Nicholls
Dropped Out: Colgate, Duquesne, Western Carolina
Bubble Watch: Eastern Washington (6-4); New Hampshire (7-3); Illinois State (6-4); Montana (7-3); Western Carolina (7-4); Austin Peay (7-4); McNeese (8-2)

 

[TreRoberson4Heisman]

http://nobowls.com

“Asterisk #2: North Dakota State vs. Illinois State. The Redbirds are in if they beat the Bison, but would need a ton of help from the bubble if they lose. For the sake of this bracket, I'm predicting a Bison win here.”

 

[RollBirds2002]

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20171114122809832674804

PROJECTED BIDS BY CONFERENCE
* - Automatic qualifier
Big Sky (3): Northern Arizona (7-3); *Southern Utah (8-2); Weber State (8-2)
Big South (2): *Kennesaw State (9-1); Monmouth (9-1)
CAA (4): Delaware (7-3); Elon (8-2); *James Madison (10-0); Stony Brook (8-2)
Missouri Valley (5): *North Dakota State (9-1); Northern Iowa (6-4); South Dakota (7-3); South Dakota State (8-2); Western Illinois (7-3)
Northeast (1): *Central Connecticut State (7-3)
Ohio Valley (1): *Jacksonville State (9-1)
Patriot (1): *Lehigh (4-6)
Pioneer (1): *San Diego (8-2)
Southern (3): Furman (7-3); Samford (7-3); *Wofford (9-1)
Southland (3): *Central Arkansas (9-1); Nicholls (8-2); Sam Houston State (9-1)
Moved In: Central Connecticut State, Lehigh, Nicholls
Dropped Out: Colgate, Duquesne, Western Carolina
Bubble Watch: Eastern Washington (6-4); New Hampshire (7-3); Illinois State (6-4); Montana (7-3); Western Carolina (7-4); Austin Peay (7-4); McNeese (8-2)

If the Birds take care of the Bison this weekend and both Furman and Samford make it (playing each other this weekend) that will be clearly stating that they just don't want 6 teams from a single conference in the playoffs.

Also.... LEHIGH?!?!!! COME OOOOOOOOONNNNNN!!! A 4-6 autobid (Ranked 70th in Massey) from a 7 team conference... There really should be a rule that your autobid needs to have a winning overall record :think:

 

[fourthandshort]

http://nobowls.com

“Asterisk #2: North Dakota State vs. Illinois State. The Redbirds are in if they beat the Bison, but would need a ton of help from the bubble if they lose. For the sake of this bracket, I'm predicting a Bison win here.”

this is one of the more credible playoff prognosticator sites .. so this is somewhat encouraging that it is predicting a playoff bid and 6 MVFC teams of UNI and ISU both win. These guys try to predict what they thing the FCS committee would do based on their criteria.

But still need to see it to believe it .. Patty V needs to understand that if a 7-4 MVFC team does not make playoff this year in particular, than that MVFC team got screwed.

MVFC 2017 is deeper than MVFC 2014 .. maybe not as clearly dominant at top as NDSU/ISU were in 2014. but clearly stronger for teams 3rd thru 7th .. and yes, I am including likely 7th place finisher YSU .. no FCS team has ever had 4 higher quality losses than these guy did this year.

 

[saxman210]

What does the Nicholls State Loss due to our chances? Help or hurt?

 

[lakesbison]

Nicholls St should be OUT with their loss.

should be 7 MVFC teams if they really want the fcs playoffs to be fair.

ISU R & YSU both should get in with losses to #2 NDSU.

 

[fourthandshort]

Nicholls St should not have been in playoff discussion even with a win, but if this loss to 5-5 SELS doesn't kill that stupid playoff talk ... I give up.

Now they are 7-4 against the 72nd ranked SOS and padded that 7-4 record with weak wins as follows:

- Beat NW LA (3-7) at home by just 4
- Beat Abilene (2-8) at home by just 9
- Beat Incarnate Word (1-9) by just 8
- Beat Houston Baptist (1-9) at home by just 6

Only 1 decent win is beating McNeese (8-2) by 2. But McNeese's best win of the 8 is a 10 point win over SELA (5-5)

And then had a good loss against Texas A&M (6-4) by just 10.

Bottom line ... 7-4 with 4 weak wins against the 72nd ranked SOS is not close to any 7-4 team in MVFC or CAA .. nor should 8-3 have been considered either. Teams playing top 10 SOS is worth at least 2 games versus teams with 70th ranked SOS.

 

[TreRoberson4Heisman]

Can someone make a list of games / game times we should be scoreboard watching?

 

[fourthandshort]

TreRob4H,

As requested ... I may have stolen this from someone on AGS

1. USD- Currently on the inside of the bubble, but tough situation. SDSU is strong. Need a win or risk sweating out the selections.
2. ISUr- Simple. Its do or die this afternoon in Normal.
3. Delaware- UD has played well this year. Avoid a letdown against Nova and your probably in.
4. UNH- If they win, the committee will put them in. Good team, showed it against Elon.
5. Monmouth- Win and your in. Lose and wait. Likely to miss playoffs if they lose at KSU today.
6. Kennesaw- Same situation as Monmouth, but better chance at an at large bid should they lose.
7. NAU- Has slid down the Big Sky lately. A win against SUU would lock them in. They are close, but still on the bubble.
7. EWU- Must win against rival Portland St. Shouldn’t be an issue. Expect to see EWU in unless they have a massive letdown.
8. Sac St- Outside looking in. Don’t count them out yet. If things get wild today, they have a strong case.
9. Howard- 7-3 team from a weak conference. All they have going for them is the UNLV win. Maybe they have a shot, but I doubt they get in.
10. Duquense- Same situation as Sac St. If things get wild, they might have a case. Have to play well this week.
11. Austin Peay- Good story, but should they get in? Second place OVC team. They will have to wait until Sunday to know.
12. Colgate- Lafayette win against rival Lehigh puts the Raiders in. If the Mountain Hawks win, it won’t look good.
13. Lehigh- Win and off to the playoffs. Lose and you’re done.
15. Samford- Basically an elimination game against Furman.
16. Furman- I could see them getting in if they lose, but not likely. Win and you’re in for the Paladins.
17. WCU- Beat UNC and you have a case. Other than that, hope things go crazy.
18. McNeese- No real quality wins, but would have 9 wins with a victory. Would be tough for the committee to keep them out.
19. Eastern Illinois- Hope everyone on the bubble loses. Then bribe the committee chair. Very slim chance EIU gets in. If more than 3 or 4 bubble teams win, they are toast.
20. Montana- Win against the Bobcats and they are in the playoffs.

So Katss07 thinks 16 spots are locked, and above 20 (actually 21, he has two 7's) teams are vying for 8 spots ... though couple are autobids so not sure of the math on 16 locks.

I think you can remove Howard, Austin Peay, EIU even if they win.

Our key is simply this assuming we win .... hope either USD loses or if they win, hope committee takes 6 MVFC teams. I just just don't see WIU or UNI losing .. so they are locks giving us 4 with NDSU and SDSU.

 

[saxman210]

Thanks fourth. I don’t see us being left out if we beat NDSU, take SDSU to overtime, beat YSU and USD each soundly so I agree with you that they’ll have to give us 6 teams.

Gotta take care of the Bizon today first. No small task.

 

[Seeing Red]

Nicholls State is 8-3 after their loss on Thursday not 7-4. 4th makes some good points, but I fear this selection committee will see that 8-3 record and give the Southland a fourth team in Nicholls State. I simply do not trust this committee.