Dicken, Kolbe, and OL .. state of union

[fourthandshort]

all 3 have seen some highs and lows this year and taken a lot of heat .. some fair, some not so fair. But they have all had their issues and taken a lot of heat when things don't go well. So some thoughts on those fronts relative to recent lows followed by highs.

Need to give some credit to OC Dicken and OL for this sudden turnaround in our run game .. most of our problems in our 2 losses emanated from inability to establish run, and build game plans with a run/pass balance that didn't expose our 2 weakest position groups .. OL and WR groups. It was bad game planning, bad play calling, and bad execution .. actually started 2nd half against InSU, who has a very solid defensive line.

If I had to point to our undoing midseason .. it would be the first half of InSU when we struggled to run and Kolbe lit them up in pass game. Our OL and run game got exposed, and Dicken bailed out by thinking we could pass our way out of it because of Kolbe having his best half ever .. but then our WR group slowly got exposed, and then Gibbs went down, leaving everything to Schnell .. with no other strong options. Spack has said several times dating back to last August .. too many "sometimes guys" and not enough "everyday guys" in our WR group. Note, Dicken did same thing last year thinking we could pass our way out of our problems, rather than adjust to what was and wasn't working .. though he eventually adjusted during 2nd half of last season and bad plays lessened. Similar thing happened this season ... so Kudos to OC Dicken for the adjustments this season and figuring out what works before too late.

As for Kolbe, this renewed focus on run game will ultimately help him as we will have much better run/pass balance when we face teams who we won't run all over. Game plans must be tailored to who we are and who we are playing .. Captain obvious, right ? Except sometime we think we can impose what we want to do and seemed like Dicken didn't adjust accordingly. Last 2 games, we got back to basics to ensure our young OL could execute the game plan successfully.

And for those that think Kolbe is still bad in pocket .. some stats to point out showing how much better Kolbe has been in pocket this year compare to last year:

Negative Yard Plays:

2016 Team (12) .. - 408 yards in 429 carries .. -34 yards per game
2016 Kolbe .. -289 yards in 80 carries .. or 71% of team and -24 yards per game

2017 Team (8) .. - 233 yards in 321 carries .. -29 yards per game
2017 Kolbe .. - 86 yards in 32 carries .. or 37% of team and -11 yards per game

Note, Kolbe is throwing 30 passes per game in 2017 behind a brand new OL, the exact 30 passes per game as last year behind a very veteran OL. He is also running or leaving pocket less. Yet has less than half as many negative yard plays despite throwing just as much this year and playing behind this very young OL and with few strong WR options.

So to those who question whether he has improved in pocket pressure .. he has improved considerably behind this very young OL and with limited strong WR options.

p.s. I just wish he would keep the ball a few times more each game on his read option plays .. usually had a few with wide open field more than couple times each game

 

[TIMMY]

Great post 4th per usual. Keep them honest on read option for sure.

My thing. 52/12 run/pas. I have no problem with the run pass differential but I would like to see them take a few shots on 2nd and short. Loosen up the box.

Great team effort.

 

[StLRedbird]

Great post 4th per usual. Keep them honest on read option for sure.

My thing. 52/12 run/pas. I have no problem with the run pass differential but I would like to see them take a few shots on 2nd and short. Loosen up the box.

Great team effort.

Yeah, great post, 4th.

I was thinking the same thing about taking shots down field. I think that's why the WR screens aren't working because secondaries aren't concerned about our long game.

 

[fourthandshort]

Thanks Timmy. Agreed about yesterday run/pass and stretching defenses ... I would have liked to see a little more passing. But given our recent issues, the opponent, road game, and weather conditions .. I didn't mind the 52/12 run/pass mix yesterday in that our OL is still finding their legs and confidence in a way that will force defenses to adjust now.

That said, Robinson and Smith have more than proven,' "they are who we thought they were" ... a 2 headed menacing monster. But they are not small lightening quick backs who can get out of backfield when OL doesn't get a push or create holes. The last 2 weeks showed just how hard they both are to tackle if they get just a little room. They are big and hard to tackle, and more than fast agile enough .. especially for their size. We need to build our offense around our RB strengths and use Kolbe strength passing to keep defenses honest - he is capable of big numbers and is maturing, despite OL and WR group issues this season.

So now the league knows what Robinson and Smith can do when given a good plan ... we WILL need to adjust in coming weeks, and slowly rework passing game into game plans.

Need Gibbs back and some other WRs to step up their game and become "everyday guys". Not sure why we lost track of our TEs, but let's find Petkovic more .. is he an everyday guy ? And Kolbe needs to keep a couple of those read options each game .. only needs 2-3 decent Kolbe runs each game and that will help Robinson and Smith even more.

 

[dpdoughbird06]

Thanks Timmy. Agreed about yesterday run/pass and stretching defenses ... I would have liked to see a little more passing. But given our recent issues, the opponent, road game, and weather conditions .. I didn't mind the 52/12 run/pass mix yesterday in that our OL is still finding their legs and confidence in a way that will force defenses to adjust now.

That said, Robinson and Smith have more than proven,' "they are who we thought they were" ... a 2 headed menacing monster. But they are not small lightening quick backs who can get out of backfield when OL doesn't get a push or create holes. The last 2 weeks showed just how hard they both are to tackle if they get just a little room. They are big and hard to tackle, and more than fast agile enough .. especially for their size. We need to build our offense around our RB strengths and use Kolbe strength passing to keep defenses honest - he is capable of big numbers and is maturing, despite OL and WR group issues this season.

So now the league knows what Robinson and Smith can do when given a good plan ... we WILL need to adjust in coming weeks, and slowly rework passing game into game plans.

Need Gibbs back and some other WRs to step up their game and become "everyday guys". Not sure why we lost track of our TEs, but let's find Petkovic more .. is he an everyday guy ? And Kolbe needs to keep a couple of those read options each game .. only needs 2-3 decent Kolbe runs each game and that will help Robinson and Smith even more.

I love that Kolbe is keeping the ball a few times a game and identifying when he has room to run and going for it. I like his burst up the middle when he has some space - we first saw this vs Richmond when he gave Tre a breather. But it's a delicate balance to establish him as a legit option to keep the ball on the option while also making sure we don't get him killed (see: what Redbird front seven has done to last two opponents' QBs). We saw how ugly things got last year when Jake went down.

On that note, it's a huge positive to get Malachi some reps each week as a change of pace. While he's probably where Kolbe was two years ago developmentally, we definitely need him to be ready to at least manage a game if Kolbe takes a shot.

We did find Petkovich running open up the seam in the second half - Malachi just overthrew him. The TEs will probably benefit the most from our reestablished run dominance - especially if we start selling play-action convincingly.

I especially loved our focus on ball control against Youngstown. We took the ball away from the Penguins twice in key spots that broke their back, while securing the ball at all times when we had it. I don't recall any bad snaps, juggles, or almost-turnovers of any sort. Very solid performance keeping the crowd demoralized in a tough road venue.

Next week should be fun. WIU defense can't seem to stop anyone, but their offense remains explosive. If our lines continue to hold and we get more disruptive Hancock winds out of the NW, we should be fine. Any game that has to be won on the ground plays right into our hands.

 

[MadBird]

A few random thoughts:

As I was thinking about next year, and the TE situation, I was wondering if Clements was coming back? Is he getting a RS or is he done? Anyway, my point was, we have Petkovich, and Gillum , and then FR Billy Bair, who had a great spring and has played some. Could Bair especially, who is listed at 220 lbs., line up as a WR or slot receiver and be a bigger contributor? Especially next year, if we have what amounts to 4 decent TE's?

Seems like the OL had several guys who were pretty even, no one had stepped up and stood out, and so part of the early season "adjustment" period most of us were expecting wasn't just getting 5 relatively inexperienced guys up to speed, but turned out to be figgering out which guys should be on the field (plus at least a couple injuries). So, in the long run, we may end up with more than 5 guys who have starting experience and have worked with the other guys. Good for this year's stretch drive, but better for next year's very tough team we're gonna have coming back.

Very random hindsight observation, maybe Hasan Muhammad-Rogers would have been able to find the field regularly and helped at WR/slot if he'd stayed?? Sort of what Broadnax did on that one play yesterday?

Part of my criticism of the OC situation is maybe directed less at "play calling" and more toward "drawing up plays". We've got riches at RB - can we find a way to get them on the field and get the ball thru the air? More screens, "passes in the flat", etc.

It was a nice win yesterday. Anyone who's followed the Birds for a while knows YSU is almost always a tough game and many times (like just last year!!) a disappointing a$$-kicking. And Pelini might sort of be to me like a football Greg Marshall, nice to shove it where the sun don't shine, just love to see him barking at his own players on the sideline. Cranky POS.

I hope we can keep the Robinson/Smith duo going, hope nobody gets itchy with PT or anything. Together, for two more years, could be just awesome, especially behind this line.

Am hoping to be at the WIU game, am having some family type issues that might prevent it. Always one of my favorite games, I love that rivalry more than EIU and even SIU.