Birds Picked 5th in Preseason Poll

[Adunk33]

1- North Dakota State
2- South Dakota State
3- UNI
4- Youngstown State
5- Illinois State
6- South Dakota
7- Western Illinois
8- Southern Illinois
9- Missouri State
10- Indiana State.

http://valley-football.org/news/2018/7/19/football-north-dakota-state-tabbed-as-favorite-to-win-2018-mvfc-title.aspx

 

[topiarydan]

I think even if we go 7-4 with 3 Valley losses and one to CSU on road (as long as close) would get us in.

If we go 7-4 with 4 Valley losses (all above us) and a road win at CSU then we'll get in

I still see us being able to pull out an 8-3 season this year

 

[Redbirdwarrior]

I'd take us 3rd because lines win football games and I think our OLine will be one of the best in FCS.

Why is NDSU not in the Big 12 yet? Anyone?

 

[FriscoBird90]

I'd take us 3rd because lines win football games and I think our OLine will be one of the best in FCS.

Why is NDSU not in the Big 12 yet? Anyone?

Possible partial answer: For the time being, it seems members of the Big 12 have discovered they like splitting post-season appearance payouts 10 ways instead of 11 or 12.

 

[Redbirdwarrior]

One day they are going to have to bump up in class and I can very seriously see them winning a New Years Eve or NYD Bowl in season one. Like a Citrus Bowl or something.

 

[bb fan]

I think NDSU's venue size and market size will always hold them back from moving up.

They are certainly a P5 the way they play Actually better than many P5's. But being good enough is not what's important

 

[Adunk33]

http://valley-football.org/news/2018/7/30/valley-football-preseason-coaches-teleconference.aspx

Spack: "We have a couple of MAC games coming up."

We know about NIU, but others?

 

[fourthandshort]

Overall, not bad .. I think most teams are within 1 slot of where I would put them, but ....

YSU has no business being above us .. we should be 4th. I think UNI is #2. SIU may surprise this year .. could be 5th place.

 

[StLRedbird]

Agreed with that, 4th. Don't know that we should be ahead of UNI, but Youngstown for sure. What do you think the over/under on the final score will be when we play Southern?

 

[ChiRedbirdfan]

Based on the last few year’s results I would subtract between 1 to 2 losses from the predictions of the rabid Redbirdfan football posters. It seems as though the general sentiment is either 7 or 8 win prediction which would mean reality is likely a 6 win season. Sounds like this team is on the playoff bubble which tracks with ISU being picked 5th.

 

[RedbirdSF67]

I believe in Betherd! Three great running backs. Best Oline in years. I predict we will have a new Cam Meredith situation with a current QB(WR), plus Schnell. Ball control ball control ball control. Keep defense of the field. Need our TEs to stay healthy, seems we are not too deep there.

Defense, biggest Dline we've ever had, need experience early. Thank goodness we had a lot of depth at LB'er, we should be ok. Secondary will be a pleasant surprise, lots of speed.

Problem is every team in the Valley has improved too. 8-3. 3rd place.

 

[ThisIsTheLineup]

If you take a look at the number of votes - the gap between UNI and us is very small. There is a drop off between South Dakota St and UNI, as well as a drop off between us and South Dakota.

 

[Total Red]

I'm going to use my allotted time at the podium to focus on the defense and the view from the outside as well as the inside.

Street and Smith's has us picked to finish 5th in conference and that was before the loss of our leading tackler — Tyree Horton. The MVFC agrees we're 5th. I understand the lack of love from the MVFC prognosticators. They're going to say that our defense has been decimated and they have a lot of evidence to support that claim. The D-Line has been ravaged as both starting DT's Keene and McCown are gone as well backup Hooper. At DE, we lost Conely and super sub pass rusher Graham.
At LB'er we lost the 3 players that were starting at the end of the season — Horton, Holm and Barry. I was becoming ok with Barry leaving until Horton was dismissed and now I'm pissed at Barry all over again. Barry had been a TE and DE, so he was still learning the LB'er position. He looked good and showed a lot of promise for full-time duty in '18. Grrr

In the secondary we lost our NFL draftee Harris, a 3-year starter at Safety Kocour and another key sub in Glass.

Most of us have acknowledged the challenges to the '18 defensive unit but we remain cautiously optimistic that Coaches Spack and Niekamp will be able to cobble together a strong unit. Again, I don't think the rest of the conference shares that view. Privately our opponents are seeing red meat ripe to be devoured by the many veteran QB's we'll face. We lost the top 4 tacklers and I'm not seeing anyone on D that will garner first team preseason accolades. Outsiders see a defense without a returning star and without a lot of experience.

That pessimism is understandable when you look at the simplistic methods used in preseason prognostications. They look at the players lost and the players returning that made an impact last season. That doesn't begin to tell the whole story.

It doesn't do a good job accounting for.....

Impact transfers — particularly FBS transfers. Like DE Romeo McKnight who is now larger than his youthful Hawkeye days.

Injured players that missed most of last season. Like LB'er Josh Barajas from Notre Dame. A real wildcard at the LB'er position.

Redshirt Freshman ready to make an impact — I'm already on record about Mike LB'er Vandenburgh and DT Ridgeway. Real good, real young. Both have a chance to be 4-year starters.

And the last group and the one that holds the most fascination for me —

Players that just plain BLOW UP. They were here last year. They played. Maybe they even started. But they were ordinary so no one expects much. At best they'll be slightly better than average the following year. After all it's the same guy right? We'll more than 90% of the time you'll be right. Players don't blow up very often. It's a Rare Bird that can accomplish the feat but we've seen it happen before.

Remember the original #25 — Marshaun Coprich? Go back to 2013. Coprich ran for a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry and 885 yards for 5-6 team. In 2014 he Blew Up and ran for 6.1 ypc and 2274 yards for a 13-2 team. Going into '14 Coprich did not receive any preseason recognition from the Valley. At the end of season he was a first team all-conference performer and the MVFC Offensive Player of the Year. To prove it wasn't a fluke he did it again in 2015. That's a Blow Up. Naturally he didn't do it all on his own. He was in the right system and he had a great supporting cast. But again, even though it is very rare you can't write a player off and say that he won't be great just because he hasn't done it yet. All the analysis that relies on what is coming back from last season only tells you where you've been. It doesn't always tell you where you're going.

By their very nature blow up players are hard to anticipate but some of the potentials on the D side would include Clark, Kelly-Martin, Swaine and Edwards but I don't have the guts to attach an endorsement to any one of them. I am claiming Ridgeway and Vandenburgh as up and comers and I might want to claim McKnight and/or Barajas by the end of August.

In the final analysis I'll split the difference between the inside and outside perspectives. We've got some impressive players but like the O-Line of last year they may be a year away. You need some guys on D that have already been there and done that and we're a little too shy on those to have a great defense but it will be very interesting to watch.

 

[Total Red]

SDSU is picked #2 and Street and Smith's has them #3 nationally. In addition their QB Christion is the preseason pick at QB. I'm not completely sold on Christion. He's an inconsistent passer and he's missing his top receiving targets from last season.


One the flip side SIU might be overlooked. They were looking good when QB starter Straub was in the lineup but when he went down they lost their last 4 games. If he stays healthy the Salukis will be tough and this could be a pivotal year for that program.


I may be guilty of putting too much emphasis on the one game we played against these teams last season. Christion didn't have a great game against us but Straub did and I can't forget what I saw. Even with his mobility I'd rather face Christion than Straub if you equalize the supporting casts.

 

[Adunk33]

https://twitter.com/RedbirdFB/status/1024344839838679041

Robinson, Schnell, Himmelman First Team All-MVC Preseason
Petkovich on the Second team

 

[fourthandshort]

Agreed with that, 4th. Don't know that we should be ahead of UNI, but Youngstown for sure. What do you think the over/under on the final score will be when we play Southern?

Both teams in 30s .. we're at home and Spack will have them ready this year after last years horrendous showing .. so I like our chances a lot this year. I've said before, I can partly explain why happened at NAU .. a game we should have won. I can NOT for life of me explain what happened at SIU .. other than this ... Spack lost the team for one week last year .. reminscent of 2010. That game is on Spack and coaches as much as players.

 

[fourthandshort]

SDSU is picked #2 and Street and Smith's has them #3 nationally. In addition their QB Christion is the preseason pick at QB. I'm not completely sold on Christion. He's an inconsistent passer and he's missing his top receiving targets from last season.


One the flip side SIU might be overlooked. They were looking good when QB starter Straub was in the lineup but when he went down they lost their last 4 games. If he stays healthy the Salukis will be tough and this could be a pivotal year for that program.


I may be guilty of putting too much emphasis on the one game we played against these teams last season. Christion didn't have a great game against us but Straub did and I can't forget what I saw. Even with his mobility I'd rather face Christion than Straub if you equalize the supporting casts.

We usually do ok against dual threat QBs .. it's the pure pocket passers with strong WRs and pass games we seem to struggle to contain. So i like them both a lot .. but Straub worries me much more than Christion. Also note SIU has 2 very strong WRs returning while Christion lost 2 very big good pass catchers.

 

[Chi-bird]

I'm going to use my allotted time at the podium to focus on the defense and the view from the outside as well as the inside.

Street and Smith's has us picked to finish 5th in conference and that was before the loss of our leading tackler — Tyree Horton. The MVFC agrees we're 5th. I understand the lack of love from the MVFC prognosticators. They're going to say that our defense has been decimated and they have a lot of evidence to support that claim. The D-Line has been ravaged as both starting DT's Keene and McCown are gone as well backup Hooper. At DE, we lost Conely and super sub pass rusher Graham.
At LB'er we lost the 3 players that were starting at the end of the season — Horton, Holm and Barry. I was becoming ok with Barry leaving until Horton was dismissed and now I'm pissed at Barry all over again. Barry had been a TE and DE, so he was still learning the LB'er position. He looked good and showed a lot of promise for full-time duty in '18. Grrr

In the secondary we lost our NFL draftee Harris, a 3-year starter at Safety Kocour and another key sub in Glass.

Most of us have acknowledged the challenges to the '18 defensive unit but we remain cautiously optimistic that Coaches Spack and Niekamp will be able to cobble together a strong unit. Again, I don't think the rest of the conference shares that view. Privately our opponents are seeing red meat ripe to be devoured by the many veteran QB's we'll face. We lost the top 4 tacklers and I'm not seeing anyone on D that will garner first team preseason accolades. Outsiders see a defense without a returning star and without a lot of experience.

That pessimism is understandable when you look at the simplistic methods used in preseason prognostications. They look at the players lost and the players returning that made an impact last season. That doesn't begin to tell the whole story.

It doesn't do a good job accounting for.....

Impact transfers — particularly FBS transfers. Like DE Romeo McKnight who is now larger than his youthful Hawkeye days.

Injured players that missed most of last season. Like LB'er Josh Barajas from Notre Dame. A real wildcard at the LB'er position.

Redshirt Freshman ready to make an impact — I'm already on record about Mike LB'er Vandenburgh and DT Ridgeway. Real good, real young. Both have a chance to be 4-year starters.

And the last group and the one that holds the most fascination for me —

Players that just plain BLOW UP. They were here last year. They played. Maybe they even started. But they were ordinary so no one expects much. At best they'll be slightly better than average the following year. After all it's the same guy right? We'll more than 90% of the time you'll be right. Players don't blow up very often. It's a Rare Bird that can accomplish the feat but we've seen it happen before.

Remember the original #25 — Marshaun Coprich? Go back to 2013. Coprich ran for a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry and 885 yards for 5-6 team. In 2014 he Blew Up and ran for 6.1 ypc and 2274 yards for a 13-2 team. Going into '14 Coprich did not receive any preseason recognition from the Valley. At the end of season he was a first team all-conference performer and the MVFC Offensive Player of the Year. To prove it wasn't a fluke he did it again in 2015. That's a Blow Up. Naturally he didn't do it all on his own. He was in the right system and he had a great supporting cast. But again, even though it is very rare you can't write a player off and say that he won't be great just because he hasn't done it yet. All the analysis that relies on what is coming back from last season only tells you where you've been. It doesn't always tell you where you're going.

By their very nature blow up players are hard to anticipate but some of the potentials on the D side would include Clark, Kelly-Martin, Swaine and Edwards but I don't have the guts to attach an endorsement to any one of them. I am claiming Ridgeway and Vandenburgh as up and comers and I might want to claim McKnight and/or Barajas by the end of August.

In the final analysis I'll split the difference between the inside and outside perspectives. We've got some impressive players but like the O-Line of last year they may be a year away. You need some guys on D that have already been there and done that and we're a little too shy on those to have a great defense but it will be very interesting to watch.

Good points. I don't see this defense as being a liability, but I don't see it as being great, either - which I think is necessary if we're going to finish in the top few spots in this conference. I think the verdict is still out on Kolbe. He's our guy, and he's a good QB, but in this day and age of college football, it just seems that good at the QB position, isn't good enough unless you have great advantages at the other positions, which I don't think we do, collectively.

As far as blow up players, I guess I think Vandenburgh will eventually be that guy. I see him having a fantastic career here. He may not win the first team battle this year, but he should collect a lot of hardware over the next for years. All-american, anyone? Not sure about Swaine. It's his senior year and I think he'll have good sack numbers, but will be on the field enough to be considered an impact player? I hope Romeo can get up to speed fast because we're going to need him to be solid.

Here's what I'm hoping to see:
- Kolbe thrive under Beathard and in addition, he physically gets stronger, faster, and more durable. He's going to need to be more than just a pocket guy this year.
- Someone at WR emerge as a deep threat and a dangerous option, and a complement to our slot machine.
- Great interior DL play to be able to stop the run, not against the Mo State's of the world, but the NDSU's of the world.

If the above happen, then I think we can finish up to 2nd or 3rd.

 

[fourthandshort]

I'm going to use my allotted time at the podium to focus on the defense and the view from the outside as well as the inside.

Street and Smith's has us picked to finish 5th in conference and that was before .......

..................And the last group and the one that holds the most fascination for me —

Players that just plain BLOW UP. They were here last year. They played. Maybe they even started. But they were ordinary so no one expects much. At best they'll be slightly better than average the following year. After all it's the same guy right? We'll more than 90% of the time you'll be right. Players don't blow up very often. It's a Rare Bird that can accomplish the feat but we've seen it happen before.

Remember the original #25 — Marshaun Coprich? Go back to 2013. Coprich ran for a mediocre 4.0 yards per carry and 885 yards for 5-6 team. In 2014 he Blew Up and ran for 6.1 ypc and 2274 yards for a 13-2 team. Going into '14 Coprich did not receive any preseason recognition from the Valley. At the end of season he was a first team all-conference performer and the MVFC Offensive Player of the Year. To prove it wasn't a fluke he did it again in 2015. That's a Blow Up. Naturally he didn't do it all on his own. He was in the right system and he had a great supporting cast. But again, even though it is very rare you can't write a player off and say that he won't be great just because he hasn't done it yet. All the analysis that relies on what is coming back from last season only tells you where you've been. It doesn't always tell you where you're going.

By their very nature blow up players are hard to anticipate ......

Good post TR .. going to go on a different tangent relate to your Blowup players comments.

I know I've been beating OC Beathard's drum a lot, but I very well recall our offensive woe's in 2013 with Coprich in backfield and the QB carousel that took place from Spring of 2013 into Fall of 2013. All of which took place under newly promoted OL coach Barnett to the OC position. Barnett was very well respect and accomplished as OL coach .. period. But he was an all too predictable OC and after an decent start in 2013, our offense collapsed after 3 or 4 games .. we were beating a top 30 Ball St team on road at halftime that year with OK ST QB Barnett starting and got blown out 2nd half. Teams quickly figured us out and QB Barnett lost his starting job. In caME QB Winkler who did well at first and quickly fizzled. It got to point, we were throwing less than 20 times per game. Coprich's lack of production his SO year could be tied directly to how ineffective our OC was and how bad our initially potent pass game became as teams figured us out quickly .

Does any of this offensive inconsistency sound familiar .. with say the last 2 years ???

So OC Barnett was pushed out and in came new OC Beathard. I was at the 2014 spring game with same QB Winkler still running the offense .... he lit it up on offense that spring game. I recall talking with others about the difference in QB Winkler under OC Barnett vs OC Beathard ... to be clear, Winkler was not dual threat He was shorter and slower than Kolbe. And there was no Tre Roberson yet. In fact, Roberson did not win the starting QB job until last week of August camp when offense started working more on deep route passing game .. then competition was over and Winkler was 2nd string .. but they were splitting reps 50/50 all of camp. taking turns with 1st team offense.

Bit of a tangent to make my point ... yet again .... but the OC is why Coprich looked so ordinarily good in 2013 and amazingly good in 2014-15. It;s about knowing how to implement a system that adapts to players strenghts, developing those players, then game planning in season, then adjusting in game and even in series.

OC will be the difference again this year.

p.s. only remaining issue is the 2014 WR/TE group was very good and very experienced .. 2018 group is work in progress.

 

[Redbirdwarrior]

Coprich's production boom had EVERYTHING to do with #5 handing him the ball. Tre Roberson might end up going down as the most effective QB in ISU history when all things are said and done. A rocket launcher on his shoulder, a good decision maker, excellent field vision, but then you add the legs. Dude was faster than MOST RB at any level, but also had the ability to cut on a dime without changing stride.

North Dakota State was DOUBLE SPYING him with outside linebackers and he still roasted them with his legs.

It helps that Coprich had excellent vision and a small, easy to miss in a pile of dudes frame, but Tre Roberson was the reason Coprich was an All American and had all those video game numbers.

This is why I was so disappointed to see Broadnax moved to safety. The college game is SO MUCH EASIER to dominate with a read option QB. Even a bad RO QB is difficult to gameplan for. Kolbe can't do it and I dont think anyone else in our QB room can.