Arch Madness Seeding

[Adunk33]

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4866&sid=cbd32b4dd618874d612568d00be6edb2&start=24

Hacksaw on MVCFans coming in clutch with this. We can rest a little easy regarding the Thursday Night Delight. Per his simulations, we have just a 3% chance of dropping to Thursday night. As of this morning, we have a 25% shot at the 2 seed, 29% at the 3 seed, 15% at the 5 seed, and 6% at the 6 seed.
If these projections are correct, we would be playing the 6 seed at Arch Madness.... Bradley.

Obviously a lot will happen with so many teams so close to each other!

 

[Metamoron]

I was thinking yesterday, what do I want the bracket to look like (realistic options).....

My preference
2or 3 seed for us
Drake and MSU at 4/5
Siu and Bradley on our side of bracket

Looks like as of this minute, it has a chance.

 

[Adunk33]

I was thinking yesterday, what do I want the bracket to look like (realistic options).....

My preference
2or 3 seed for us
Drake and MSU at 4/5
Siu and Bradley on our side of bracket

Looks like as of this minute, it has a chance.

I like that a lot!
1-Loyola, 2- SIU, 3- ILST, 4 Drake, 5-Mo State, 6 Bradley. 7-10 the rest. I do not want to see Indiana State. If they play Thursday (likely in the 7-10 game) they will give the 2 seed a GAME.

 

[Manchester Matt]

I think we were a lock for a 2/3 seed before Fayne went down.

I think we are now probably going to end up in the 4-6 range.

Six wouldn’t bother me in the slightest if Missouri State is on the 4/5 line with Loyola.

 

[Trey_Guidry4three]

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4866&sid=cbd32b4dd618874d612568d00be6edb2&start=24

Hacksaw on MVCFans coming in clutch with this. We can rest a little easy regarding the Thursday Night Delight. Per his simulations, we have just a 3% chance of dropping to Thursday night. As of this morning, we have a 25% shot at the 2 seed, 29% at the 3 seed, 15% at the 5 seed, and 6% at the 6 seed.
If these projections are correct, we would be playing the 6 seed at Arch Madness.... Bradley.

Obviously a lot will happen with so many teams so close to each other!

And do these simulations account for current injuries on isu?

 

[Adunk33]

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4866&sid=cbd32b4dd618874d612568d00be6edb2&start=24

Hacksaw on MVCFans coming in clutch with this. We can rest a little easy regarding the Thursday Night Delight. Per his simulations, we have just a 3% chance of dropping to Thursday night. As of this morning, we have a 25% shot at the 2 seed, 29% at the 3 seed, 15% at the 5 seed, and 6% at the 6 seed.
If these projections are correct, we would be playing the 6 seed at Arch Madness.... Bradley.

Obviously a lot will happen with so many teams so close to each other!

And do these simulations account for current injuries on isu?

I'm not sure. I assume not, but I just asked.

 

[ThisIsTheLineup]

And do these simulations account for current injuries on isu?

He has done two simulations since Phil got hurt, three since Key got hurt. So I would think they take in to account the injuries, but only as much as a computer simulation can do that.

 

[IHateWSU]

I was thinking yesterday, what do I want the bracket to look like (realistic options).....

My preference
2or 3 seed for us
Drake and MSU at 4/5
Siu and Bradley on our side of bracket

Looks like as of this minute, it has a chance.

I think this is our best case scenario. I would love us 3 and Bradley 6. I worry a little about both Evansville and Indiana St. so let SIU get either of them.

The problem is, my concern after watching yesterday is that I am not sure how competitive we could be without Phil and Keyshawn. I will be rooting hard against both Evansville and Indiana St from here on out!! If we win one more we are good, but from what I saw yesterday, I do not have much confidence.

 

[isuquinndog]

Ugh the dreaded 8:35 pm game.

 

[Trey_Guidry4three]

And do these simulations account for current injuries on isu?

He has done two simulations since Phil got hurt, three since Key got hurt. So I would think they take in to account the injuries, but only as much as a computer simulation can do that.

That's cool they can do that, thanks

 

[ricohill]

Ugh the dreaded 8:35 pm game.

You mean the scheduled 8:35 game that never starts until 9:15pm game.

 

[ThisIsTheLineup]

That's cool they can do that, thanks

Yeah it has been pretty accurate in the past. Here is to hoping it is accurate this season! ray: ray:

 

[ThisIsTheLineup]

Ugh the dreaded 8:35 pm game.

You mean the scheduled 8:35 game that never starts until 9:15pm game.

I call it the "I am too drunk to watch basketball at this point" game.

 

[WoodlandWarrior]

If we get the Gargoyles in St. Louis we will win by 12. Bradley fans would have to be stupid to think that the Birds would be a good draw for them.

 

[Metamoron]

I think if you look at Hacksaw’s work, it shows the probability of each game. I believe it showed us with a 30% probablity if winning at Loyola. Not sure if/how those have changed with injuries.

 

[Baltimore Bird]

I took the current records and added W and L for each remaining game. I have ISU in the 4/5 game vs Drake and only had us winning 1 more game and finishing 9 and 9 tied with Drake and Bradley. The Gargoyles of Bradley are in the 6 seed because they were swept by Drake and they will be playing Mo State who I have going 3 and 1 down the stretch and finishing 3rd. We will see....

 

[ricohill]

:

Ugh the dreaded 8:35 pm game.

You mean the scheduled 8:35 game that never starts until 9:15pm game.

I call it the "I am too drunk to watch basketball at this point" game.

:text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1: :text-+1:

 

[Adunk33]

http://www.mvcfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4866&sid=cbd32b4dd618874d612568d00be6edb2&start=24

Hacksaw on MVCFans coming in clutch with this. We can rest a little easy regarding the Thursday Night Delight. Per his simulations, we have just a 3% chance of dropping to Thursday night. As of this morning, we have a 25% shot at the 2 seed, 29% at the 3 seed, 15% at the 5 seed, and 6% at the 6 seed.
If these projections are correct, we would be playing the 6 seed at Arch Madness.... Bradley.

Obviously a lot will happen with so many teams so close to each other!

And do these simulations account for current injuries on isu?

I'm not sure. I assume not, but I just asked.

This is his response.


The odds are based off of Sagarin's Predictor ratings. To my knowledge, there is no account of injuries in these ratings.
Hacksaw

 

[bb fan]

I have always had the position that the 4/5 game is much, much better than the 3/7 game. Which means getting the 4 or even 5 seed is better than the 3 seed IMHO. That late, late game is bad as it doesn't start until after 9pm, and the winner has to come back and play earlier the next day.

A few years ago, somebody looked at it, and the 4/5 winner was considerably more likely to get to the championship game than the 3/7 winner.

 

[Redbirdmike]

I didn't think so. Thanks Jacksaw without two of the Three Headed Monster we could feasibly lose our last 5 and limp down to St. Lou. Honestly, all of the remaining games scare me based on what I witnessed in the second half yesterday and the myriad of turnovers the past two games alone. Bradley has been nearly unbeatable at home, we were throttled by Northern Iowa, Loyola is a pretty well oiled machine right now and we were down by 40 at one point to Drake. Hopefully we at least get Phil back soon and can pull out at least one game to keep us out of Thursday hell. What a difference three days makes. Two games out and second place to more injuries and staring down the barrel of the Play-In Game. With all three playing I feel we have a real shot vs any of the teams to get to a Sunday date with presumably Loyola. Now they could trip too at Scotttrade and not get there, but we need to play better defense, cut down on the turnovers and light it up from 3 Land in one of these final 4 games. Most likely vs. Northern Iowa at home. We only need one!