+/- Analytics Questions

[Loyl2u]

I've had a couple of questions raised about the +/- game analytics that I've posted.

First, as I noted the first time I posted these, some of the calculation is still done manually, so I apologized in advance for any unintended errors.

I don’t know of anywhere to get this - I wanted to confirm analytically what I was seeing on floor with regard to all around offense/defense success or failure for the team when both individuals and different combinations of players were on the court. I use the play-by-play from Goredbirds.com box score to calculate. If you are not familiar, go to schedule on goredbirds.com MBB page. On games that have been played, on the right you will see “box score”, click on it(not box score pdf), when that page opens, at top of page just above the final score with logos- you will see box score highlighted and then play-by-play and finally play analysis.

I Just start w/ starting 5, scroll to first substitution and enter running score and time, scroll to next substitution and do the same. Subtract running score from previous running score to determine +/- for combination. Then I combine any duplicate lineups +/- and time to provide combination results. Also just as clarification, +/- are based upon team performance while individual player was on the floor- not individual performance. I added +/- per minute for yesterday's game and it is kind of interesting. Also sorry about the formatting issues(some of it depends on what system you are viewing redbirdfan.net on- I’m going to try what Redbird222 did for recruiting summary with photo file for my example here, we’ll see.


Hope that helps - let me know if you have any recommendations

 

[Redbird222]

Thanks for all the analytics and time spent compiling all the data!!

 

[SgtHulka]

:clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[Chi-bird]

Regardless of the analytics, the end result is that the game is very difficult to watch these days. It is jump shot after jump shot after jump shot. No diversity of players skill/ability/moves.

I went to the game Saturday with a group of 12, mix of kids and adults. Four others had played the game at the high school or college level (nobody over the age of 50, mind you) but haven’t followed hoops as much lately. The consensus was that the game has so drastically changed from even five years ago and we came away wondering what the heck we had just watched. We discussed the plays throughout the game and nobody could really remember much as to what plays stood out, other than a few moments by Fisher.

The three point line has helped open up the game, but it, coupled with the complete lack of physicality is really hurting it. I don’t know the answer, but it’s didficult to watch.

 

[Hamdonger]

That's alot of work Loyl2U and it is always intriguing to look at and definitely brings value to this game. However, +/- is still somewhat deceptive as it never tells the entire story. No metric does, in any sport. Good work, though.

CHI-bird I concur with you. You'd think with the amount of 3's put up in the recent era, and how far out these peeps shoot...that scoring would be UP.

Nope. I see it in all levels of basketball. (Yes NBA has had alot of high scoring games this yr but judge the NBA come playoff time, not during going through motions regular season) Scoring is not up. So why not? Refer to Chi's post, for starters. Defense better? Maybe. Athletes are stronger overall and perhaps a bit more athletic. Doesn't make them smarter defenders though...so I don't think it's defense. The game is no doubt changing and ya just gotta embrace it...but I enjoy watching the game less and less. The truly skilled players are slowly becoming extinct. Boy if you could combine skill development with the 27 footer, with an actual designed fast break (you can be elephants and still run a break)...that's the game I want to see. Not this 3 step non-called travel and point guards that can't handle the ball (and avg an assist or two per game) and post players that can't post. :teasing-blah: :character-oldtimer: Damn. :character-oldtimer: Combine the old with the new and we'll have ourselves a hell of a game again. But I can see myself getting to a point where basketball no longer interests me. :teasing-blah:

 

[Hamdonger]

Obviously there are exceptions to the above post, there are good programs and good players, but the overall fundamental talent and trend of the game is slowly...melting...away.
https://youtu.be/aopdD9Cu-So

 

[JHBird]

Heck, I think a dunk should be worth three points as much any long distance shot. Give people the incentive to take it to the hole.

 

[Reggie]

https://kenpom.com/blog/a-treatise-on-plusminus/

Long story short, there are better advanced metrics that while are not perfect have some level of statistical relevance. BPM perhaps.

 

[Loyl2u]

quote=Chi-bird post_id=65306 time=1582561196 user_id=157]
Regardless of the analytics, the end result is that the game is very difficult to watch these days. It is jump shot after jump shot after jump shot. No diversity of players skill/ability/moves.

I went to the game Saturday with a group of 12, mix of kids and adults. Four others had played the game at the high school or college level (nobody over the age of 50, mind you) but haven’t followed hoops as much lately. The consensus was that the game has so drastically changed from even five years ago and we came away wondering what the heck we had just watched. We discussed the plays throughout the game and nobody could really remember much as to what plays stood out, other than a few moments by Fisher.

The three point line has helped open up the game, but it, coupled with the complete lack of physicality is really hurting it. I don’t know the answer, but it’s didficult to watch.
[/quote]

I completely agree with you regarding the 3 point shot but it is a nationwide trend. I just watched UofI postgame where they talked a lot about the change of many teams to 1 big.

The primary reason that I put together the +/- stats was I thought I was seeing at games that the 4 Guard/ 1 Forward Offense,(which the Birds have employed regularly this season) was creating additional 3 point looks, but it seemed to me that most of the time, the negative impact upon defense/rebounding outweighed the offensive benefit. Additionally, some players simply compliment others better and showing the impact of another player being on the court or not is difficult to quantify. I wanted to find a statistical way to discuss the consequences of different approaches /lineups for the game so that it wasn’t just based on my observations.

As examples lineup makeup- not trying to cherry pick here, somebody asked for full season so I started non-conference with wins recently-

Against Belmont, the birds played 2F/3G for 30:49 and were +6 during that period of game They played 1F/4G for 9:11 and were +1.

Against Little Rock, they played 2F/3G for 29:30 and were +11, played 1F/3G for 10:30 and were -6. Against Drake, they played 2F/3G for 22:53 and were +11, they played 1F/4G for 17:07 and were -7.

In the recent loss to Valpo game#2 @ Redbird, the birds played 2F/3G for 15:32 in the first half, were +16 and played 1F/4G for 4:28 and were +1. In the second half, the birds played 2F/3G for 8:44 and were -8, they played 1F/4G for 11:16 and were -15.

 

[Loyl2u]

Regardless of the analytics, the end result is that the game is very difficult to watch these days. It is jump shot after jump shot after jump shot. No diversity of players skill/ability/moves.

I went to the game Saturday with a group of 12, mix of kids and adults. Four others had played the game at the high school or college level (nobody over the age of 50, mind you) but haven’t followed hoops as much lately. The consensus was that the game has so drastically changed from even five years ago and we came away wondering what the heck we had just watched. We discussed the plays throughout the game and nobody could really remember much as to what plays stood out, other than a few moments by Fisher.

The three point line has helped open up the game, but it, coupled with the complete lack of physicality is really hurting it. I don’t know the answer, but it’s didficult to watch.

I completely agree with you regarding the 3 point shot but it is a nationwide trend. I just watched UofI postgame where they talked a lot about the change of many teams to 1 big.

The primary reason that I put together the +/- stats was I thought I was seeing at games that the 4 Guard/ 1 Forward Offense,(which the Birds have employed regularly this season) was creating additional 3 point looks, but it seemed to me that most of the time, the negative impact upon defense/rebounding outweighed the offensive benefit. Additionally, some players simply compliment others better and showing the impact of another player being on the court or not is difficult to quantify. I wanted to find a statistical way to discuss the consequences of different approaches /lineups for the game so that it wasn’t just based on my observations.

As examples lineup makeup- not trying to cherry pick here, somebody asked for full season so I started non-conference with wins recently-

Against Belmont, the birds played 2F/3G for 30:49 and were +6 during that period of game They played 1F/4G for 9:11 and were +1.

Against Little Rock, they played 2F/3G for 29:30 and were +11, played 1F/3G for 10:30 and were -6. Against Drake, they played 2F/3G for 22:53 and were +11, they played 1F/4G for 17:07 and were -7.

In the recent loss to Valpo game#2 @ Redbird, the birds played 2F/3G for 15:32 in the first half, were +16 and played 1F/4G for 4:28 and were +1. In the second half, the birds played 2F/3G for 8:44 and were -8, they played 1F/4G for 11:16 and were -15.

 

[Redbird222]

You have pointed and out and I agree with you that Fisher is our best player who seems to be more effective when playing with another post player. I believe the +/- support that as well as observations from the game.

However, I do believe the 4 guard +/- is somewhat a reflection of Hillsman and Chastain being one of the 4th guards. While they are listed as guards they are tweeners that would have been listed as small forwards or wings back in the day. I dont really consider them true guards nor true post players. While Jaycee at times can be effective offensively and decent defensive rebounder, he more often than not is a defensive liability. Matt was more effective last year and a high energy player. I am not sure but perhaps his knee was impacting his play this year. With the exception of the Central Florida game, he was not confident in shooting anything unless at point blank range .