Air Spack!!!!

[Virginia Redbird]

I have visited the NDSU Bisonville fan forum a few times this week since their loss to SDSU. I saw a new thread for their upcoming game against the Redbirds (NDSU is on a bye this week). The moderator previewed the game and described the Redbird offense " They're a pass-happy team". I laughed out loud to myself when I read that. As many complaints as there have been on this board over the last few years about the inept offense and Spack's proclivity to just run the ball and play defense, to be called a pass-happy team seemed so out of place! The moderator said he expected this to be a close game. I would guess it will be close as well since both teams usually play good defense.
Pass-happy Redbirds! AIR SPACK is flying!

 

[fourthandshort]

so true this season. Mueller going down in 1st series in open, then Wright not being 100% have made it moreso pass dependent. But we do have a QB and OC to entrust more passing .. albeit a very conservative passing game. Which is also fortunately Annexstad's strength. So these 2 pick ups was very fortunate timing given our RB group has not been healthy.

Now we just have to bring along the WR and OL groups, and get some more production out of the RB group .. whoever it may be. I'm hopeful that USD was minor setback offensively, and we pick things back up offensively against ISUb. It would sure be nice to have a little statement game this week. Something to show we are progressing in all position groups.

To Spack's credit .. I think it shows he has a lot more confidence in his experienced OC and QB, even while keeping it conservative.

 

[MadBird]

so true this season. Mueller going down in 1st series in open, then Wright not being 100% have made it moreso pass dependent. But we do have a QB and OC to entrust more passing .. albeit a very conservative passing game. Which is also fortunately Annexstad's strength. So these 2 pick ups was very fortunate timing given our RB group has not been healthy.

Now we just have to bring along the WR and OL groups, and get some more production out of the RB group .. whoever it may be. I'm hopeful that USD was minor setback offensively, and we pick things back up offensively against ISUb. It would sure be nice to have a little statement game this week. Something to show we are progressing in all position groups.

To Spack's credit .. I think it shows he has a lot more confidence in his experienced OC and QB, even while keeping it conservative.

View attachment 820

Yes.

And the OL has had its share of injuries, illnesses, etc. keeping them from settling on a solid rotation. They seem to be getting it straightened out.

I'm beginning to wonder about the WRgroup from a recruiting standpoint. Maybe its a chicken and egg thing with respect to the QB situation - gotta have a decent passing game to attract WR's, not gonna have a decent passing game w/o some decent WR's.

I won't trot out the stats and records, but as I point out from time to time, many of our passing records came under Coach Spack - Matt Brown, Tre Roberson, Jake Kolbe, Brady Davis all hold passing records at ISU under HC Brock "Air" Spack. He's shown the willingness to open it up when "the stars align".

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Yes.

And the OL has had its share of injuries, illnesses, etc. keeping them from settling on a solid rotation. They seem to be getting it straightened out.

I'm beginning to wonder about the WRgroup from a recruiting standpoint. Maybe its a chicken and egg thing with respect to the QB situation - gotta have a decent passing game to attract WR's, not gonna have a decent passing game w/o some decent WR's.

I won't trot out the stats and records, but as I point out from time to time, many of our passing records came under Coach Spack - Matt Brown, Tre Roberson, Jake Kolbe, Brady Davis all hold passing records at ISU under HC Brock "Air" Spack. He's shown the willingness to open it up when "the stars align".

Stats don't always mean much. The Chicago Bears' all-time leader in passing yardage is ... wait for it ... JAY CUTLER! Those were some great years were they not? Second to Jay is Sid Luckman who played when passing was something most teams did not even consider much and they were still wearing leather helmets! The Bear's all-time receiver? Johnny Morris followed by Harlan Hill!

 

[MadBird]

Stats don't always mean much. The Chicago Bears' all-time leader in passing yardage is ... wait for it ... JAY CUTLER! Those were some great years were they not? Second to Jay is Sid Luckman who played when passing was something most teams did not even consider much and they were still wearing leather helmets! The Bear's all-time receiver? Johnny Morris followed by Harlan Hill!

Well, 4th was talking about Spack being conservative and so forth, and I was just saying as far as conservative goes, Spack has opened up the offense quite a bit over the years, when he has the OC and QB who can handle it. Not judging the "quality" so to speak, altho I'd say for the most part those were Spack's best years, the years he had Brown, Roberson, Kolbe. Cutler had his faults (many) but the fact of the matter is when he was at QB the Bears offense was not "conservative". Might not be the best teams they every had, but not the most "conservative".

 

[fourthandshort]

Well, 4th was talking about Spack being conservative and so forth, and I was just saying as far as conservative goes, Spack has opened up the offense quite a bit over the years, when he has the OC and QB who can handle it. Not judging the "quality" so to speak, altho I'd say for the most part those were Spack's best years, the years he had Brown, Roberson, Kolbe. Cutler had his faults (many) but the fact of the matter is when he was at QB the Bears offense was not "conservative". Might not be the best teams they every had, but not the most "conservative".

Just to clarify on my views of Spack and our pass game. I know he is willing to pass. My issue has always been the following:

• his inability to successfully identify and recruit HS QB position - we've never had a HS recruit be a successful #1 or even a good #2 in his tenure. Kolbe is the lone example and he only had 1 good year .. his first year starting in 2016.
• and speaking of Kolbe, his inability to truly develop his QBs in terms of entrusting the OC and QB coaches to develop those HS QBs and learn to work thru their mistakes.

Kolbe was perfect example .. great year passing in 2016, but was weak dealing with pocket pressure. Which made his passing stats all the more impressive in 2016. So what happens in 2017, they focus him so much at getting better eliminating negative pocket pressure plays - which he did do much better in 2017. But it ruins his confidence as a passer. In my view, Spack can't tolerate any negative offensive plays .. whether it is sacks or picks or fumbles .. and then goes overly conservative and comes down hard on OCs and QBs to the overall detriment of the pass game.

We've seen the same in how he handles nice leads .. he will shut everything down offensively earlier than most coaches to protect a nice lead against negative offensive plays. Obviously, this strategy makes sense to a point ... but Spack reverts to very conservative offensive play under any signs of duress. I believe he hinders his OCs and QBs in this way much moreso than most good coaches.

Anyway, that has always been my argument. I know Matt Brown's (not Spack's recruit) and Tre Roberson's (transfer) numbers, plus Kolbe's 2016 season.

Btw .. that suffocating feeling in the pass game against USD might be an early sign of same. Though USD has a very good pass defense, and our run game has not been productive ... so that may be why we were so conservative in our pass game that day. We threw it 31 times because our run game is it's worst ever under Spack this season .. and we probably couldn't win running the ball.

We'll find out more against ISUb, and teams like YSU, and WIU. But note how NDSU and SDSU are top pass defenses in conference and country. We'll need our run game shored in time for those games.

Defensive Efficiency​

Passing Defense Efficiency

Index	Team	G	COMP	ATT	INT	PCT	YDS	TD	EFFIC
1	North Dakota State	7	97	164	5	59.1	949	7	115.7
2	South Dakota State	7	109	189	9	57.7	1250	8	117.7
3	South Dakota	6	105	166	4	63.3	1147	6	128.4
4	Illinois State	6	89	140	6	63.6	1030	5	128.6
5	Southern Illinois	7	152	255	5	59.6	1811	15	134.8
6	Northern Iowa	7	134	204	7	65.7	1522	9	136.1
7	Youngstown State	6	114	181	7	63.0	1533	9	142.8
8	Indiana State	6	116	181	3	64.1	1386	12	147.0
9	Western Illinois	6	128	191	2	67.0	1643	9	152.7
10	North Dakota	6	134	195	3	68.7	1712	14	163.1
11	Missouri State	6	133	195	4	68.2	1778	14	164.4

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Spack reminds me so much of Lovie Smith. Absolutely fantastic defense but can't find an offense with a search party. QBs notwithstanding, an argument could easily be made that the only productive offenses under Spack were when Bethard was the O-Coordinator. Lovie spent his entire Bears tenure looking for someone, anyone, to run the offense for him. He went through offensive coordinators like most people change their socks!
I have never moved on from the two Co-Offensive Coordinator experiments. The first time he did it you could say he was trying something and Beathard left rather unexpectedly. The second time it was just a dumb decision, a really dumb decision.

 

[fourthandshort]

Spack reminds me so much of Lovie Smith. Absolutely fantastic defense but can't find an offense with a search party. QBs notwithstanding, an argument could easily be made that the only productive offenses under Spack were when Bethard was the O-Coordinator. Lovie spent his entire Bears tenure looking for someone, anyone, to run the offense for him. He went through offensive coordinators like most people change their socks!
I have never moved on from the two Co-Offensive Coordinator experiments. The first time he did it you could say he was trying something and Beathard left rather unexpectedly. The second time it was just a dumb decision, a really dumb decision.

Agree on Spack vs Lovie comparison.

But 2012 was a very good pass offense .. I think we had but our RB group was a little too beat up come playoffs. Brown was allowed to light it up in playoffs.

Btw, here is Brown's biggest year ... in 2012 - but I can't recall the OC ?? Brown averaged 34 passes per game with 141% QBR. Run game averaged just 3.7 ypc, they were playing beat up a season progressed. So Spack was forced to lean more on Brown. Brown was so naturally good and confident ... the latter drove Spack a little nuts to point Spack once actually said this about him .. "with Matt, you have to take the bad with the good". That comment always stuck with me .. Brown was arguably the best QB in the MVFC, but Spack still had reservations.



Here is Kolbe's 2016 year .. he was off to great start, even though he was very uncomfortable in the pocket still, unlike Brown .. but 30 passes per game. He had very good receiver and RB group that season and threw with confidence.

 

[Virginia Redbird]

Agree on Spack vs Lovie comparison.

But 2012 was a very good pass offense .. I think we had but our RB group was a little too beat up come playoffs. Brown was allowed to light it up in playoffs.

Btw, here is Brown's biggest year ... in 2012 - but I can't recall the OC ?? Brown averaged 34 passes per game with 141% QBR. Run game averaged just 3.7 ypc, they were playing beat up a season progressed. So Spack was forced to lean more on Brown. Brown was so naturally good and confident ... the latter drove Spack a little nuts to point Spack once actually said this about him .. "with Matt, you have to take the bad with the good". That comment always stuck with me .. Brown was arguably the best QB in the MVFC, but Spack still had reservations.

View attachment 822

Here is Kolbe's 2016 year .. he was off to great start, even though he was very uncomfortable in the pocket still, unlike Brown .. but 30 passes per game. He had very good receiver and RB group that season and threw with confidence.

View attachment 823

I always wondered if Kolbe would have had a much better career somewhere else. His first year was pretty impressive and I thought they had found their QB. it went downhill from there. Was it Kolbe or was it the coaches and/or system? I don't know. I thought Kolbe was a class kid and handled it well. I had nothing against Brady but I did not think he was a major step up from Kolbe, if he was a step up at all. It is different this year with Annexstad. Compared to a true freshman QB it is apparent to me that bringing in Annexstad is a major improvement. I think it would be more impacting if he had more talent around him. Some of that of course is due to injuries. That just is what it is.

 

[fourthandshort]

I always wondered if Kolbe would have had a much better career somewhere else. His first year was pretty impressive and I thought they had found their QB. it went downhill from there. Was it Kolbe or was it the coaches and/or system? I don't know. I thought Kolbe was a class kid and handled it well. I had nothing against Brady but I did not think he was a major step up from Kolbe, if he was a step up at all. It is different this year with Annexstad. Compared to a true freshman QB it is apparent to me that bringing in Annexstad is a major improvement. I think it would be more impacting if he had more talent around him. Some of that of course is due to injuries. That just is what it is.

agreed .. Kolbe and Annexstad were very similar throwing the ball ... not a big arm but very good short to mid range. But SO Kolbe was pretty anxious in the pocket - he may have figured that out over time, but to with Spack-Dickens combo. Annexstad really keeps his cool back there. I believe Kolbe deserved better than he got. And I'm pretty certain had he been in better passing game system built to his strengths, he would have had a very nice FCS career.