Advanced Stats Deep Dive...

[Retire 12]

Took a look at some of the stats on basketball-reference.com (a must bookmark for any stat lovers).

Offensive Rating (points produced per 100 possessions):

Chastain - 128.1
Jefferson - 122.8
Fayne - 117.5
Idowu - 116.2
Copeland - 105.7
Yarbrough - 100.7
Tinsley - 98.1
Gassman - 95.1
Hein - 92.4
Evans - 86.8

Simply unacceptable from Evans at this point, and I've been the biggest rah rah guy for him during his career. How in the WORLD can he be that far under 1.0??? Has to be some sort of reason for it. THe issue is if we ever have Evans/Gassman/Tinsley out on the floor in any combination, we're simply struggling to score. We miss Chastain minutes dearly, and if nothing else shows you... please let the above help out.

Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions):

Hein - 105.0
Yarbrough - 105.1
Fayne - 105.8
Idowu - 106.2
Tinsley - 106.9
Chastain - 110.7
Copeland - 111.0
Jefferson - 111.9
Gassman - 113.2
Evans - 114.0

Seriously? Nobody under a 1.0 currently huh? And Evans at the bottom of another list? I hate to pin the struggles on one dude but... the stats dont lie. We simply can't guard anyone as a team right now. We have no stopper at all. How does this compare with the PLee/Wills team?

Not a single one of them had a Drtg over 99.7

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/illinois-state/2017.html


Different team, different mentality. Someone has to get the spark.........

 

[Flagship08]

Keyshawn has gone from the big 3 to a huge liability on the court. Some other interesting facts when you compare last years stats to this years is Tinsley and Yarbarough are playing about the same as last year. But surprisingly Fayne has actually digressed this year. Other than his free throw percentage virtually every other part of his game is weaker this year which goes against the narrative we have been hearing.

 

[Chicagobirdfan]

Keyshawn has gone from the big 3 to a huge liability on the court. Some other interesting facts when you compare last years stats to this years is Tinsley and Yarbarough are playing about the same as last year. But surprisingly Fayne has actually digressed this year. Other than his free throw percentage virtually every other part of his game is weaker this year which goes against the narrative we have been hearing.

Do you think Fayne is just because level of competition and the multiple teams with big, athletic front courts? My guess is he evens out when we get Into mvc play. He’s been really good this year for the most part.

 

[birdlife]

Keyshawn has gone from the big 3 to a huge liability on the court. Some other interesting facts when you compare last years stats to this years is Tinsley and Yarbarough are playing about the same as last year. But surprisingly Fayne has actually digressed this year. Other than his free throw percentage virtually every other part of his game is weaker this year which goes against the narrative we have been hearing.

Do you think Fayne is just because level of competition and the multiple teams with big, athletic front courts? My guess is he evens out when we get Into mvc play. He’s been really good this year for the most part.

was wondering the same thing when looking at MY/PF defensive numbers. is it due to them usually matching up against the opponents best scorer(s)?

 

[Flagship08]

I think playing teams with elite big men is part of the problem for Phil, his FG % is down and his personal fouls are way up. He only fouled out of 3 games all of last year and has already fouled out of 4 games this year. With that said I don't know if that's the full story, it could also be his teammates not playing good help defense, not getting good passes as well.

 

[ricohill]

Good stuff here. The defensive numbers on a team and individual basis are bad.

I still wonder if Keyshawn is 100 percent? I don't know how you drop off that much without something we don't know about.

 

[birdlife]

follow up question - does this formula account for MY/PF's defensive assignment? or is it more like a hockey players +/-?

 

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

Flat out teams leave us open on the perimeter because they know we can't hit a high enough percentage of 3's most nights to win. Every once in awhile theyll hit 15. They focus on guarding inside to not give up the easy basket but also if they guard one of our bigs they see that even though they get down there with ease they can't finish.

Let me sumerize.

Can't hit 3's
Can't finish from 2 feet
Can't defend.

Honestly, what can they do?

 

[Retire 12]

follow up question - does this formula account for MY/PF's defensive assignment? or is it more like a hockey players +/-?

+/- is pretty spot on.

 

[Flagship08]

Flat out teams leave us open on the perimeter because they know we can't hit a high enough percentage of 3's most nights to win. Every once in awhile theyll hit 15. They focus on guarding inside to not give up the easy basket but also if they guard one of our bigs they see that even though they get down there with ease they can't finish.

Let me sumerize.

Can't hit 3's
Can't finish from 2 feet
Can't defend.

Honestly, what can they do?

We're converting 3's at an almost 2% higher clip than last year.

 

[cubird]

Fayne has more exposure to fouling because of the poor guard defense allowing drives and easy passes into the post.

 

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

Flat out teams leave us open on the perimeter because they know we can't hit a high enough percentage of 3's most nights to win. Every once in awhile theyll hit 15. They focus on guarding inside to not give up the easy basket but also if they guard one of our bigs they see that even though they get down there with ease they can't finish.

Let me sumerize.

Can't hit 3's
Can't finish from 2 feet
Can't defend.

Honestly, what can they do?

We're converting 3's at an almost 2% higher clip than last year.

And?

 

[Phantom]

A more disturbing trend right now than the 3 ball is the inability to make shots in the paint. We must've left a dozen points worth of bunnies on the floor against SDSU---which would've made the difference in that game. Several other nights we've missed a noticeable amount of high-percentage shots too.

 

[Jsnhbe1Birds]

That's what I've been saying. They do great getting down low but bang it off the rim. They did that at least 10 times vs sdsu. Hit 5 of those and the game is tied

 

[Flagship08]

And?

"And" at 35.9% we are shooting 3 pointers at an above average clip compared to other schools making your point about not being able to shoot the 3 simply wrong.

 

[ricohill]

One way to level out 3's and 2's is effective field goal percentage.

ISU's eFG% is 49.1 which ranks us 220 on offense and efG% is 51.2 which is 201st.

So not effective on offense or defense, which is a bad combination.

"effective field goal percentage (abbreviated eFG%) is a statistic that adjusts field goal percentage to account for the fact that three-point field goals count for three points while field goals only count for two points. [1] Its goal is to show what field goal percentage a two point shooter would have to shoot at to match the output of a player who also shoots three pointers."

 

[Flagship08]

I looked at some of the advanced stats like "box plus/minus" for our transfers from last year, although none looked good, Dedric Boyd's advanced stats looked especially bad. I'm guessing because of his high usage and low shooting percentages. Interesting to look at nonetheless.

 

[SgtHulka]

And?

"And" at 35.9% we are shooting 3 pointers at an above average clip compared to other schools making your point about not being able to shoot the 3 simply wrong.

 

[ricohill]

And?

"And" at 35.9% we are shooting 3 pointers at an above average clip compared to other schools making your point about not being able to shoot the 3 simply wrong.

121st in the country shooting 3's.

3pt FG defense is 75th at 30.2. Which we should be good at since we fly at all shooters. However, teams just shot fake and drive by us leading to easy baskets.

 

[CaliRdBrd]

Keyshawn has gone from the big 3 to a huge liability on the court. Some other interesting facts when you compare last years stats to this years is Tinsley and Yarbarough are playing about the same as last year. But surprisingly Fayne has actually digressed this year. Other than his free throw percentage virtually every other part of his game is weaker this year which goes against the narrative we have been hearing.

Do you think Fayne is just because level of competition and the multiple teams with big, athletic front courts? My guess is he evens out when we get Into mvc play. He’s been really good this year for the most part.

Probably suffering because have no other threats, aside from MY, and he’s being double/triple teamed.

Hell, if I was Ole Miss, I’d put 2 on Fayne and 3 on MY and let the rest of the guys alone so they can continue bricking it until the cows come home.