I predicted 8-3 last yr and 21-22 season. So I am no longer in denial Good to get 6-6 in 2024
2024 Roster & Season - Prognosis Negative ?
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It is mediocre at face value, but the world pretty much came to a halt and people in many countries were getting arrested for leaving their home. Before that we were trending up big time.I think the word is "should" have. He is the Head Coach after all. He is solely responsible. It is easy to lead when things are rosy, we find out how good a leader is when the times are tough. That is when your leaders need to step up. Add in the two failed Co-Offensive Coordinator experiments and Spack did not distinguish himself at all during that time. If the fallout of those years led to the multiple 6-5 seasons he owns that as well. The injuries of course are not a factor a coach can control and Covid was a difficult time but a lot of other coaches saw their programs through the Covid situation. I give the most credit for the resurgence of the offense to Peterson. Good hire by Spack but I think Peterson's impact on the offense is obvious.
I am not trying to hammer Spack, He has done great things for Redbird football. I am not in the fire Spack camp either. I also will not ignore his short comings. I talked in another post about building a winning program culture. I am not convinced that Spack has the ability to do that. He has been in Normal a long time now. In my view he is a carbon copy (carbon copy...dating myself) of Lovie Smith. A great defensive coach but could not find an offense to save his soul. A solid football coach that will give mostly winning seasons but overall turns out mediocre teams. Not bad teams by any stretch but not great either. Every now and then he may have that magical season where things go great and the fan base uses those memories to hope the next magical season is just around the corner. It has been almost a decade since the Redbirds were the FCS runner up. Since that championship game the Birds opponent, NDSU, has won four more national titles (2017, 2018, 2019, & 2021). NDSU was the national runner up in 2022. They made the semi-finals in 2016 and the quarterfinals in 2020 (if you want to count that year).
A little perspective, Spack's record since that National Championship appearance and 10-3 record the following year in 2015 is:
2016 - 6-6
2017 - 6-5
2018 - 6-5
2019 - 10-5
2020 - 1-3*
2021 - 4-7
2022 - 6-5
2023 - 6-5
I took the records off the GoRedbirds.com site. I am not a Spack hater but how could anyone look at this record and not see it as just mediocre? Maybe next year is the next magical season, maybe not. We will all find out next fall.
Hey, wasn't that Redbird run in 2014/15 great? How about those '85 Bears, huh? Being a football fan in Illinois is NOT for the weak!
Spack teams are almost always mediocre at a minimum and darn good to really good on ocassion. He builds his roster from developing the lines first, and then once that is right, the hope is to have some skill players emerge.
Would I love to be NDSU or SDSU? Yes. But many valley teams would love to be us as well and it’s only going to get better and better as we avoid bad years and bad teams. I’ll take that. We have much, much, much better chance of winning a natty with Spack then without.
StLRedbird
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Agreed, chapter and verse. Not many schools have coaches that have proven they can field a nat'l championship team, as well as execute over the course an entire year to realize it. He's not perfect, but if he was he would be coaching on a bigger stage. Sometimes the grass ain't greener.
StLRedbird
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I appreciate your perspective, Virginia. My put would be this. The program had been restored to nat'l champ caliber in '20 and was put into a tailspin before the abortive season even began due to events entirely beyond Spack's control. I'm trying to make this point as gently as as I can, you know?I think the word is "should" have. He is the Head Coach after all. He is solely responsible. It is easy to lead when things are rosy, we find out how good a leader is when the times are tough. That is when your leaders need to step up. Add in the two failed Co-Offensive Coordinator experiments and Spack did not distinguish himself at all during that time. If the fallout of those years led to the multiple 6-5 seasons he owns that as well. The injuries of course are not a factor a coach can control and Covid was a difficult time but a lot of other coaches saw their programs through the Covid situation. I give the most credit for the resurgence of the offense to Peterson. Good hire by Spack but I think Peterson's impact on the offense is obvious.
I am not trying to hammer Spack, He has done great things for Redbird football. I am not in the fire Spack camp either. I also will not ignore his short comings. I talked in another post about building a winning program culture. I am not convinced that Spack has the ability to do that. He has been in Normal a long time now. In my view he is a carbon copy (carbon copy...dating myself) of Lovie Smith. A great defensive coach but could not find an offense to save his soul. A solid football coach that will give mostly winning seasons but overall turns out mediocre teams. Not bad teams by any stretch but not great either. Every now and then he may have that magical season where things go great and the fan base uses those memories to hope the next magical season is just around the corner. It has been almost a decade since the Redbirds were the FCS runner up. Since that championship game the Birds opponent, NDSU, has won four more national titles (2017, 2018, 2019, & 2021). NDSU was the national runner up in 2022. They made the semi-finals in 2016 and the quarterfinals in 2020 (if you want to count that year).
A little perspective, Spack's record since that National Championship appearance and 10-3 record the following year in 2015 is:
2016 - 6-6
2017 - 6-5
2018 - 6-5
2019 - 10-5
2020 - 1-3*
2021 - 4-7
2022 - 6-5
2023 - 6-5
I took the records off the GoRedbirds.com site. I am not a Spack hater but how could anyone look at this record and not see it as just mediocre? Maybe next year is the next magical season, maybe not. We will all find out next fall.
Hey, wasn't that Redbird run in 2014/15 great? How about those '85 Bears, huh? Being a football fan in Illinois is NOT for the weak!
But again, I appreciate your perspective. Like you, I think we're better off w Spack than w/o him. We disagree on his upside.
fourthandshort
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Agreed, would only add 2019 was very high level team, that struggled late in season due to QB issues ... an inconsistent #1 who was put on a tight leash, and no #2 ready to play when our #1 went down.
In fact, the QB position ... lack of legit #1 nor any #2 until 2023 season. Otherwise, we have top 10 level defenses most years, and pretty good to very good run games most seasons. It's the QB position and pass game philosophy that has held us back from being a quarterfinal team or better most season.
Ironically this season, we solved our pass game issues, still had strong run game restored after our worst ever run game in 2022, due largely to injuries, and less depth than we thought. But our 2023 defense was not ready for prime time until later in season .. or a few of those 4 losses by 8 combined points could have been wins.
Lot coming back, so the roster has been shored back up to high level as STL RB has pointed out.
MadBird
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Just catching up to the last page where several posters referenced "changes"/controversies" etc. around the time of the pandemic, including the cancelled season, Beathard's dismissal, etc. Didn't see anyone specifically mention the loss of a couple assistants, in what to me are still "mysteries" - Khenon Hall and Greg McLain. Some of you may know the "real" story. Hall was the recruiting coordinator before his departure, and his bio at the time says the 2020 class was ranked #8 in FCS by one ranker. Seems like that combo of losing Beathard, Hall, and McLain kind of set things back, especially on the recruiting front.
fourthandshort
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I don't know i .. I hadn't connected any dots there. But our roster is very deep right now, and was rebuilding in 2022, though clearly not as ready as this season. IF we had stayed healthy on offense in 2022, it could easily have been an 8-3 season and a playoff bid for sure. But our depth was just not there on offense .. certainly not at QB, nor our RB group like many of us thought - that fizzled fast after Mueller injury, and Wright playing banged up. And then OL was a game of musical chairs trying to find right combination while dealing with injuries .. just no depth and not a lot of proven experience across the entire offense doomed our 2022 season, when our defense was very strong. Not making excuses ... we needed depth and didn't have it last year.
Then we flipped this script in 2023 - so frustrating. But it now looks like both sides of ball should come together in 2024 .. and I am amazed that 55 of 111 on our roster are some variation of JRs and SRs ... that seems unprecedented for ISU.
Which means our recruiting from 2 to 3 years ago is paying dividends right now ... we just had to fill the void from 10 defections after 2019 season and 2020 pandemic. Only 1 of 10 was a SR in 2019 .. so we lost 9 starter/stud defections after 2019 and 2020.
Tough void to fill quickly as STLRB pointed out .. and it finally looks like we may put it together on both sides of ball. And very few of us were saying this after last year. Most of us were concerned about both sides of ball .. lost a lot from our greeta defense, and our offense just wasn't clicking .. all we had was a QB we "thought" could make the throws. We saw potential .. but who knew the 2 transfers would be great (RB and TE), or that our WR and OL groups would start clicking .. all of a sudden, we have a great offense.
fourthandshort
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More food for thought about our 2023 defensive struggles against good offenses, and our defensive prognosis for 2024. Massey computer also ranks teams offenses and defenses based on same basic formula, W-Ls, scores/margins, relative to SOS, including the strength of those offenses and defenses. So we faced 5 of the top 15 offenses inn the FCS this past season per Massey ... in a down defensive year for us. Beating 2 of these 5. And going down to wire with 2 more. Water under the bridge, but just some perspective relative to who we faced this year, on the heels of playing 4 weaker teams/offenses to start the season. And each game we lost, our defense stepped up in 2nd half after weak 1st halves in nearly every loss.
This gives me more hope for a full defensive turnaround on defense in 2024.
This gives me more hope for a full defensive turnaround on defense in 2024.
| Team | Record | Δ | Rat | Pwr | Offense | Def | HFA | SoS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correlation | 544 | 898 | 933 | 1000 | 703 | 0 | 701 | ||
| N Dakota St Missouri Valley | 11-4 0.733 | +1 | 2 7.33 | 2 55.83 | 1 57.46 | 5 25.79 | 2.16 | 2 40.98 | |
| S Dakota St Missouri Valley | 15-0 1.000 | 1 8.17 | 1 62.77 | 2 55.68 | 1 34.51 | 2.12 | 21 36.62 | ||
| Montana St Big Sky | 8-4 0.667 | 4 7.02 | 3 51.01 | 3 55.23 | 7 23.20 | 2.26 | 3 40.87 | ||
| CS Sacramento Big Sky | 8-5 0.615 | 11 6.61 | 10 42.01 | 4 51.39 | 29 18.03 | 2.15 | 18 37.74 | ||
| Youngstown St Missouri Valley | 8-5 0.615 | 13 6.57 | 13 41.25 | 5 50.54 | 28 18.13 | 2.23 | 15 38.02 | ||
| E Washington Big Sky | 4-7 0.364 | 36 6.09 | 25 36.73 | 6 50.46 | 58 13.69 | 2.42 | 9 38.86 | ||
| Holy Cross Patriot League | 7-4 0.636 | 21 6.38 | 14 40.64 | 7 50.36 | 34 17.70 | 2.13 | 40 32.07 | ||
| Montana Big Sky | 13-2 0.867 | -1 | 3 7.31 | 4 49.96 | 8 50.04 | 3 27.33 | 2.30 | 20 37.58 | |
| North Dakota Missouri Valley | 7-5 0.583 | 15 6.53 | 12 41.36 | 9 50.02 | 26 18.76 | 2.33 | 12 38.39 | ||
| New Hampshire Coastal | 6-5 0.545 | 33 6.13 | 27 36.25 | 10 49.62 | 55 14.05 | 2.24 | 35 32.39 | ||
| Idaho Big Sky | 9-4 0.692 | 7 6.77 | 7 44.00 | 11 49.60 | 14 21.82 | 2.23 | 13 38.13 | ||
| Missouri St Missouri Valley | 4-7 0.364 | 24 6.26 | 18 39.63 | 12 49.19 | 31 17.86 | 2.18 | 4 40.82 | ||
| W Carolina Southern | 7-4 0.636 | 41 6.02 | 44 32.35 | 13 49.06 | 85 10.71 | 2.19 | 55 29.85 | ||
| Villanova Coastal | 10-3 0.769 | 6 6.88 | 6 45.18 | 14 49.05 | 6 23.55 | 2.12 | 25 35.46 | ||
| Northern Iowa Missouri Valley | 6-5 0.545 | 10 6.64 | 8 42.97 | 15 48.05 | 10 22.34 | 2.19 | 1 41.67 |
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StLRedbird
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Spack didn't want to play the spring season. I can't find that anywhere in the public record, but I'm pretty sure of it. My assumption at the time was that the decision happened at a higher pay grade. Still seems reasonable. But like you said, the loss wasn't just Beathard, but also Hall and McLain. Players left, too. The regrettable decision to have co-OCs happened somewhere around this time, too.
StLRedbird
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One thing I'd like to see from these upperclassmen is tightening up of special teams.
fourthandshort
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Wow, for sure ... it was the worst in MVFC, and not just placekicking. I know our return game was bad having checked a while ago. But the're all bad. Of the 6 phases, we are 12th/last in 3, 11th in 2, and 9th in 1 .. just plain bad as you said.
Return game ... last place in KO and P return
Kicking and Cover teams ... mired in 9th to 12th place in every phase ... 9th in Net KO despite the most TBs. Most missed XPs at 6
fourthandshort
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Regarding our horrendous special teams results ... the only way I can rationalize the horrible return team results is combination of Spacks conservatism against TOs combined with our most productive/balanced offensive attacks since 2014 and 2016 ... both year, we passed and ran very well.
This really revealed itself in Kick returns .. per above post, we were dead last in both yds/return and returns ... just 12 returns. Note 2nd least # returns was SDSU with 19 ... except that's because they led country in least TDs given up, and they were 2nd in yards/return and 1st in Punt Return yards/return with 17 .. amaing.
Now a lot of teams took conservative approach on Punt returns, but we are again dead last in yards/return. Interestingly, UND only returned 4 punts all year and had low yards/return too. But they were #1 in kick return yards/return ... so they were choosing similar strategy as Spack on punt returns .. just accept the possession and let the offense do its' thing.
Below are the 2022 and 2023 1st down rankings .. impressive turnaround from 2022. That is partly improvements in pass game, but even bigger improvement in run game after a dismal 2022 year in run game.
So my speculation is Spack may have approached return game as ... why risk a TO if my offense will move the chains anyway. We went from 8th in 2022 (17.1) to 1st in 2023 (24.4). So i can mostly accept this PR strategy, though obviously need to work on the yards/return. But we ought to be able to do more on KR .. returning more and returning better ... these can be game changers. And other teams are clearly figuring KR game out even while being conservative on PRs.
Here are 2022 1st down rankings
This really revealed itself in Kick returns .. per above post, we were dead last in both yds/return and returns ... just 12 returns. Note 2nd least # returns was SDSU with 19 ... except that's because they led country in least TDs given up, and they were 2nd in yards/return and 1st in Punt Return yards/return with 17 .. amaing.
Now a lot of teams took conservative approach on Punt returns, but we are again dead last in yards/return. Interestingly, UND only returned 4 punts all year and had low yards/return too. But they were #1 in kick return yards/return ... so they were choosing similar strategy as Spack on punt returns .. just accept the possession and let the offense do its' thing.
Below are the 2022 and 2023 1st down rankings .. impressive turnaround from 2022. That is partly improvements in pass game, but even bigger improvement in run game after a dismal 2022 year in run game.
So my speculation is Spack may have approached return game as ... why risk a TO if my offense will move the chains anyway. We went from 8th in 2022 (17.1) to 1st in 2023 (24.4). So i can mostly accept this PR strategy, though obviously need to work on the yards/return. But we ought to be able to do more on KR .. returning more and returning better ... these can be game changers. And other teams are clearly figuring KR game out even while being conservative on PRs.
First Downs
First Downs| Index | Team | G | RUSH | PASS | PEN | TOTAL | AVG/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Illinois State | 11 | 109 | 133 | 26 | 268 | 24.4 |
| 2 | South Dakota State | 15 | 169 | 147 | 12 | 328 | 21.9 |
| 3 | Northern Iowa | 11 | 75 | 140 | 22 | 237 | 21.5 |
| 4 | North Dakota State | 15 | 166 | 134 | 20 | 320 | 21.3 |
| 5 | Youngstown State | 13 | 113 | 137 | 21 | 271 | 20.8 |
| 6 | North Dakota | 12 | 115 | 114 | 18 | 247 | 20.6 |
| 7 | Missouri State | 11 | 62 | 147 | 13 | 222 | 20.2 |
| 8 | Southern Illinois | 13 | 78 | 132 | 25 | 235 | 18.1 |
| 9 | South Dakota | 13 | 97 | 113 | 19 | 229 | 17.6 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 11 | 85 | 73 | 20 | 178 | 16.2 |
| 11 | Murray State | 11 | 73 | 84 | 16 | 173 | 15.7 |
| 12 | Western Illinois | 11 | 42 | 98 | 29 | 169 | 15.4 |
Here are 2022 1st down rankings
First Downs
First Downs| Index | Team | G | RUSH | PASS | PEN | TOTAL | AVG/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Iowa | 11 | 99 | 150 | 13 | 262 | 23.8 |
| 2 | Southern Illinois | 11 | 86 | 133 | 32 | 251 | 22.8 |
| 3 | North Dakota | 12 | 110 | 129 | 15 | 254 | 21.2 |
| 4 | Youngstown State | 11 | 114 | 94 | 20 | 228 | 20.7 |
| 5 | North Dakota State | 15 | 198 | 91 | 17 | 306 | 20.4 |
| 6 | South Dakota State | 15 | 147 | 137 | 21 | 305 | 20.3 |
| 7 | Missouri State | 11 | 85 | 112 | 12 | 209 | 19.0 |
| 8 | Illinois State | 11 | 72 | 97 | 19 | 188 | 17.1 |
| 9 | Western Illinois | 11 | 63 | 88 | 20 | 171 | 15.5 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 11 | 69 | 85 | 14 | 168 | 15.3 |
| 11 | South Dakota | 11 | 66 | 83 | 10 | 159 | 14.5 |
StLRedbird
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I'm surprised that Spack doesn't prioritize special teams more. It sure seemed to stick out more with the number of close games we had. It's got to be easier to fix this with a veteran team. His teams have sometimes been really good at special teams and other times not. I'll bet it correlates to the number of upperclassmen but have no evidence to back that up.
Here's our '24 schedule...
Aug 31 @Iowa
Sep 7 EIU
Sep 14 WIU
Sep 21 @No Alabama
Sep 28 NDSU
Oct 5 @SIU
Oct 12 MOST
Oct 19 @MUST
Oct 26 ---BYE---
Nov 2 YSU
Nov 9 @UNI
Nov 16 @INSU
Nov 23 UND
Looking forward to the opener. Hope the weather moderates some this time. Coming out of the non-con less than 3-1 will be a very bad omen for the season. I checked on the UNA fan forum and they aren't optimistic about the coming year. Portal not being kind to them so far.
Isn't it just about time to put up a W on the Bison? They have a new HC that is not an internal promotion. Continuity gonna suffer? Who knows, but let's get after 'em while the gettin's good.
The rest of the conf schedule is the typical MVFC grind. No SDSU or USD. That may or may not be beneficial for us. We'll miss out on our opportunity to find out if Lujan is the second coming of Nick Saban, unfortunately.
crazzymark
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Coach Spack needs to get one more big time receiver, an experienced O lineman and two corners with 2 or 3 star skill set to have a chance at a run at making the playoffs next season.
Corners play was great overall this yr even the previous year with the departures. DL played well but at same time ISU needs a big noise guard to clog the middle for the runs which require teams to double team that guy and have 80% percent John Ridgeway engine to get to QB now and then. ISU have small DL which it show when SDSU OL man handle them in the late quarters. As far as big time receiver when was the last time one came and actually made a difference ?
2023 - Cam Grandy
Must be the answer to all fumbles with Spack... Frank West muff a Punt against Valpo we never saw the PR game return. Same with SDSU game with Carr on KR game. With that being said we hear coach say various players must have short term memory its on to the next play. Well maybe some coach's need to do the same.
WR not TE !