2018 recap, 2019 needs ...

[StLRedbird]

I still believe in Beathard, and I have zero doubt we were better off than we would have been with Dicken ... but he obviously did not have the impact I touted. Excuses sound weak .. but wondering if he lost some focus during season with his wife getting cancer again. She was getting treatment in season and had to travel to/from Houston I believe.

Sorry to hear this about Coach Beathard's wife. Have you heard of any update? Those kinds of issues sure put things into perspective.

 

[fourthandshort]

I still believe in Beathard, and I have zero doubt we were better off than we would have been with Dicken ... but he obviously did not have the impact I touted. Excuses sound weak .. but wondering if he lost some focus during season with his wife getting cancer again. She was getting treatment in season and had to travel to/from Houston I believe.

Sorry to hear this about Coach Beathard's wife. Have you heard of any update? Those kinds of issues sure put things into perspective.

no idea at this point ... only reason I knew that was because I'm in End Zone club and they let us know they decided to use End Zone funds to fly her back from Houston for some special event (maybe Family Weekend ... something they wanted her there for) during this past season. She was in Houston for treatment at the time .. so I would assume the medical $ are piling up and End Zone club offered to fly her back ... very cool thing to do.

 

[RBFANTOO]

I still believe in Beathard, and I have zero doubt we were better off than we would have been with Dicken ... but he obviously did not have the impact I touted. Excuses sound weak .. but wondering if he lost some focus during season with his wife getting cancer again. She was getting treatment in season and had to travel to/from Houston I believe.

Sorry to hear this about Coach Beathard's wife. Have you heard of any update? Those kinds of issues sure put things into perspective.

I am also very sorry to hear this about Coach Beathard's wife. It certainly does put football and everything else in perspective. In retrospect it is amazing that Coach B could still focus on the complex duties of a D1 football OC in the middle of a sad family situation. Wishing the Beathard family the best for 2019 and the future.

 

[fourthandshort]

So for our Redbirds Defense in 2019, got some numbers that will be very encouraging.

Of our top 24 tacklers (any >=10 tackles), only 3 are not returning: LB Mathews (1st with 90), Safety Brees (7th with 46), and back up DE Swaine (14th with 25) ... they will be missed, but man we got a lot coming back. So the top 24 accounted for 95% of our total tackles. The 21 of top 24 returning make up 80% of the 95%. So we basically retain 9 of 11 starters, 19 of 22 on our 2 deep, and 84% of tackles from our 2 deep .. granted some of those tackles are special teams. Current class breakdown of 21 returnees ... currently 7 JRs, 9 SO's, 5 FR .. so we are pretty well stocked for next 2 years.

In my opinion last summer, and I was optimistic about our 2018 defense becoming good ... they were better than I thought, and sooner than I thought. And now we've got roughly 85% of our 2 deep and tackles returning from the 2nd best defense in MVFC.

Feeling ok on this side of ball next year !!

 

[TreRoberson4Heisman]

WR coach Brian Anderson joined Kansas State’s staff as RB Coach.


Cold Blackman (UVA) recruiting profile.
https://247sports.com/player/cole-blackman-32986/

 

[MadBird]

WR coach Brian Anderson joined Kansas State’s staff as RB Coach.


Cold Blackman (UVA) recruiting profile.
https://247sports.com/player/cole-blackman-32986/

I think what Tre was trying to say was that we got a transfer FBS WR, Cole Blackman from U of Virginia. Nothing to indicate he'll be a gamebreaker tho, unfortunately. Guess you never know.

https://www.pantagraph.com/sports/c...le_81dce8b2-4c22-520d-9b1f-c52a5479776f.html

Blackman played in four games for the Cavaliers in 2016. He missed the entire 2017 season because of injury. He saw action in 11 of 12 games this past season, mostly on special teams and did not record any statistics.

 

[fourthandshort]

No mention of timing for Cole Blackman's transfer ... but given timing, I assume and hope he is here for spring term and ball .... got to get acclimated asap. Many FBS transfers struggle to acclimate immediately, even most of the good ones. Saw his HS tape ... he has good hands, good enough routes, good enough hops, but didn't see much speed, quicks or separation. Noticed his QB consistently struggled to hit him in stride, so that makes it harder for sure. I'm guessing he has developed into a very good route runner, great hands and catching in traffic .. just not a breakaway threat. Could be a good 3rd option behind Edgar and Haley ... we'll see.

Welcome Cole ... we do need help in our WR group. My best advice ... be ready to work, and know your acclimation to program will take some time - being here for spring is critical. MVFC is not as big a step down as many FBS transfers assume at first. If you like to work hard, you should do fine.

 

[fourthandshort]

No mention of timing for Cole Blackman's transfer ... but given timing, I assume and hope he is here for spring term and ball .... got to get acclimated asap. Many FBS transfers struggle to acclimate immediately, even most of the good ones. Saw his HS tape good hands, good enough routes, good enough hops, but didn't see much speed, quicks or separation. I'm guessing he has developed into a very good route runner, great hands and catching in traffic .. just not a breakaway threat.

Welcome Cole ... we do need help in our WR group. My best advice ... be ready to work, and know your acclimation will take some time. MVFC is not as big a step down as many FBS transfers assume at first. If you like to work hard, you should do fine.

 

[fourthandshort]

Some more about our defense with 2018 results vs 2019 prospects ...

Below is current NCAA FCS total defense stat rankings as of this week. We rank 13th in total yards per game and 6th in total yards per play ... 6th !!

But you have to adjust this judgmentally for SOS consideration. We play a top 10 SOS, many teams above us play SOS in lower 3rd percentiles. Kennesaw SOS is 74th, but was even lower before the playoffs. Colgate SOS is 39th but again was way lower before playoffs. NC A&T is 93rd SOS .. Dartmouth, St Francis, Alcorn, Princeton, Georgetown all very weak SOS. Wofford was 54th.

Point being, statistically after adjusting for SOS, we might arguably be very close to #1 in yards per play in all of FCS and #3 in yards per game (behind only NDSU and JMU per below).

Arguably, Colgate defense was pretty good, but who knows what it would have done if it played in MVFC .. they lost 35-0 to NDSU. Same thing for Kennesaw ... so those SOS type adjustments MIGHT be a bit optimistic ... but certainly their numbers and rankings would have dropped much closer to ours (or worse) playing in MVFC.

As for 2019 ... we have 9 of 11 starters returning, plus 10 of 11 from 2nd string. And I think we have guys good enough today to step up for LB Mathews (i.e. Vandenburgh) and Safety Brees (i.e. Broadnax ?).

RANK TEAM G PLAYS YDS YDS/PLAY OFF TDS OPP TDS YPG
1 Colgate 12 740 2852 3.85 14 14 237.7
2 Kennesaw St. 13 772 3428 4.44 23 24 263.7
3 N.C. A&T 12 762 3248 4.26 14 17 270.7
4 Dartmouth 10 676 2804 4.15 14 15 280.4
5 North Dakota St. 14 852 3982 4.67 19 21 284.4
6 James Madison 13 824 3763 4.57 20 22 289.5
7 Saint Francis (PA) 11 690 3193 4.63 24 27 290.3
8 Alcorn 13 835 3788 4.54 29 34 291.4
9 Drake 11 785 3256 4.15 26 28 296.0
10 Princeton 10 636 2973 4.67 17 17 297.3
11 Georgetown 11 788 3278 4.16 24 27 298.0
12 Wofford 13 809 3971 4.91 30 32 305.5
13 Illinois St. 11 756 3408 4.51 26 27 309.8
14 New Hampshire 11 718 3410 4.75 27 32 310.0
15 Jacksonville St. 13 846 4047 4.78 37 41 311.3
16 Villanova 11 715 3439 4.81 28 32 312.6
17 Maine 14 960 4383 4.57 38 40 313.1
18 Stony Brook 12 818 3784 4.63 30 32 315.3
19 Savannah St. 10 632 3162 5.00 35 38 316.2
20 Weber St. 13 871 4130 4.74 28 35 317.7

 

[glenn_ma]

What happened to Jason Harris? I was expecting a big year from him. Was he hurt, or just lost in the shuffle in moving to LB? Why is he not at DE? I would love to see him and McKnight as bookend rushers. Is he the spark the DL is missing?

 

[StLRedbird]

What happened to Jason Harris? I was expecting a big year from him. Was he hurt, or just lost in the shuffle in moving to LB? Why is in not at DE? I would love to see him and McKnight as bookend rushers. Is he the spark the DL is missing?

According to goredbirds, he played in all 11 games getting 26 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 hurries.

 

[MadBird]

What happened to Jason Harris? I was expecting a big year from him. Was he hurt, or just lost in the shuffle in moving to LB? Why is in not at DE? I would love to see him and McKnight as bookend rushers. Is he the spark the DL is missing?

According to goredbirds, he played in all 11 games getting 26 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 hurries.

Which was pretty low on the stat ranking, Zach Mathews led with 90 tackles maybe?

I checked the stats too and was surprised to see Harris so low, not sure how it actually reflects his contributions, but I would have expected him to end up higher.

 

[fourthandshort]

He technically moved from DE to OLB in a hybrid role. I also expected more from him given he was 1 of 2 returning starters from a very good defense. Maybe his role in 3-4-4 alignment doesn't lend itself to stats. Or maybe he needs to go back to spending more time as true DE.

But agree .... he might give us more of a speed rushing and mobile presence on our DL against faster teams, or teams who like to spread things out more. With Swaine gone, Harris could take on his role on DL.

 

[fourthandshort]

If we're looking at remaining FBS transfers: WR and OL help. It sounds like we're in the mix for both but need them to actually materialize on campus.

Yes awaiting materialization

"https://twitter.com/Pg_Reinhardt/status/1075542766946525184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 20,

good scoops on both front from Randy .... OT and WR .. and both are on campus now for spring ball.

 

[fourthandshort]

just bumping this thread which I thought had some nice info exchanged ..... my big 5 takeways from last season were:

1. QB short-intermediate pass game .. too inconsistent, need completion rate closer to 60%
2. offensive 3rd down conversions ... finished last
3. Kicking game .. finished 10th/last in FG %, 9th in gross KO, 8th in net KO
4. Field position .. got destroyed some games last season by 200-350 yards
5. defensive sacks .. finished last, but our containment and overall defense was very very good .. so I'll take most of tradeoff; but a few more sacks would be helpful.

The 4th item is the result of many things, but was huge problem in latter half of season, when we played, in order .. 1st place NDSU, 2nd place SDSU, 3rd place UNI, and 4th place ISUb ... and not by a little ... hundreds of yards of field position each game, combined with 1 really badly played quarter each game .. and always the 1st or 2nd quarter, forcing us to play from behind.

What doesn't make sense ?

We had a strong punter (#1 in gross punting) but punt cover was weak (dropped to 7th in Net Punting). Had pretty good punt returner (Schnell, 4th), and a good kick returner (Uphoff was #2) .. other than a few untimely penalties. Had bad kicking game ... but missed FGs typically occurred well inside the 30 yard line (i.e. 30 yd line = 47 yd FG) and kick cover was ok. We also did well in turnover battle, especially with defensive picks being 15 by ISU to 8 by opponents and net fumbles being just -2.

So other than a few extra yards given up in punt return and kick return game, special teams was not really driving force behind field position woes ... so IMO the main issue was 3rd conversions and short-intermediate pass game .. and our game planning in big games. It was only a problem against the best MVFC teams, particularly on defense in the latter half of season when we lost those 4 straight to the top 4 ... basically, they figured us out. But IMO, we got exposed agianst MoST (trap game ?) and again in 2nd half of WIU game but we were fortumate to hang on to win including a late pick 6 to win by 17 .. Robinson carried the offense that game, and our defense was phenomenal .. everyone else looked overwhelmed by WIU defense, which was very strong.

We need to learn from that and overcome it, particularly against better defenses, if we want to earn a playoff spot and make a run.

 

[fourthandshort]

So I had been meaning to dig into this sooner, and finally did ... talked a lot about field position and bad quarters crushing ou 2018 playoff hopes ... usually the 2nd quarter in our losses. Field position issues were sporadic, but in our 4 straight losses in weeks 7 to 10 to the top 4 MVFC teams, we got killed in field position each game. As for 2nd quarter results ... bad. Here is Q2 and game recap of our 5 losses

- MoST .. outscored 7-0 in Q2 to go down 10-0 at half, and lost by 3
- NDSU .. outscored 14-0 in Q2 to go down 21-0, and lost by 14
- SDSU .. outscored 21-0 in Q2 to go down 28-7, and lost by 10
- UNI ..... outscored 16-0 in Q2 to down 19-3, and lost by 10
- ISUb ... outscored 21-0 to dow down 21-10, and lost by 5

Basically, in our 5 losses, we were outscored 79-0 in Q2 and lost by total of just 42 points across all 5 games ... that's an avg of 8 pts per game.

Now I know those games looked really bad at times ... especially with our Q2 and field position issues ... it got pretty claustrophobic at times. But here is recap of total 1st downs and total yards for those same 5 games .. noting NDSU was #1, SDSU made semis, UNI made round of 16 losing by just 7 to UCD team who lost by just 5 to #2 EWU, and then ISUb who was clearly screwed out of bid.

- first downs .. ISU 95 vs opponents 94
- total yards .. ISU 1,825 vs opponents 1,894

And just to highlight how we got outscored 79-0 in Q2 ... below are the 3 consecutive drives during Q2 that put us behind 8 ball at half, or just after half .. 2 of these TD are actually to start Q3, but meant to reflect momentum shift from Q2:

NDSU - 2 scores in Q2 and big Q3 KR led to very short 3rd TD drive to start Q3; note they picked us on our own 5 and marched 95 yards for TD, so that one was 14 pt swing by itself

- NDSU 1st H47 00:35 Punt V00 11:18 * TOUCHDOWN 8-53 4:17 #
- NDSU 2nd H05 05:34 Interception V00 01:11 * TOUCHDOWN 12-95 4:23 #
- NDSU 3rd V17 13:50 Punt V00 12:40 * TOUCHDOWN 3-17 1:10 #

SDSU - 3 scores in Q2, 2 of which were on very short field after TOs .. the last was 81 yard pass play when our DB tripped while running stride for stride with WR

- SDSU 2nd I05 04:44 Fumble I00 04:39 * TOUCHDOWN 1-5 0:05 #
- SDSU 2nd I19 04:27 Fumble I00 02:24 * TOUCHDOWN 6-19 2:03 #
- SDSU 2nd S19 01:39 Punt I00 01:27 * TOUCHDOWN 1-81 0:12


UNI - 2 scores, but nearly a 3rd when they got to or 5 and we picked them; but they again got 2 scores from TOs

- UNI 2nd I00 03:07 Interception I00 03:07 * TOUCHDOWN 0-0 0:00
- UNI 2nd N29 01:17 Punt I05 00:14 Interception 7-66 1:03 #
- UNI 3rd I21 11:29 Interception I00 10:54 * TOUCHDOWN 2-21 0:35 #

ISUb - 3 scores on very short field after 2 TOs

- INS 2nd V38 12:26 Fumble V00 11:54 * TOUCHDOWN 2-38 0:32 #
- INS 2nd V25 10:02 Interception V00 07:23 * TOUCHDOWN 6-25 2:39 #
- INS 2nd H48 05:45 Punt V00 01:25 * TOUCHDOWN 9-52 4:20 #

Note how many from these 2nd qtr barages were the result of TOs and/or field position. Very few were sustained drives after we punted to them.

So this is the kind of stuff we have to clean up this year ... when sh-t happens, stop the bleeding sooner. We were so much closer to being a very good team last year than many might think. Couple plays here and there made a huge difference in these games.